How a Minor Timing Problem Snowballed Into a Major Derailment for Royce Lewis - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

The slump thing he did, specifically, was get eaten alive by his own signature move in the batter's box.

Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images

Royce Lewis is a freak. He put up historic numbers during the first year and change of his big-league career, and the raw production came with huge hits in key moments; playoff heroism; and no small dose of swagger. Lewis oozed confidence up there. He owned the box, and even the opposing pitcher seemed to know it. Certainly, Lewis himself did.

You'd feel that way, too, if you were capable of maintaining a sequence of movements that unlocks devastating power without sacrificing feel for contact—one most of your cohort finds impossible to emulate, because it's complex and difficult. Lewis attacks the baseball in a two-phase move, with a step forward before the pitcher goes into his delivery, then a traditional leg lift and stride. 

This move is a cousin to one Nolan Arenado cultivated early in his career, with the Rockies. Arenado would stomp his back foot as the first move in his load, to ensure that his weight didn't get stuck on his back foot. The back-foot stomp forces you to get both halves of the body moving, and unleashes a torrent of energy into the ball. Lewis's almost tentative-looking pre-stride step does the same thing, by drawing him forward, forcing him to lean back into his back leg and hip, and then letting the rest of his power flow as he picks up the front foot again for the real leg kick.

He can generate as much force on a line to the ball, with as much upward plane through the hitting zone, as hitters like Justin Turner do with much larger leg kicks. There's a rhythm to Lewis's moves that creates bat speed without undue loading of the hands or tipping of the barrel. It's all that that permitted him to bat .304/.367/.588 in 338 plate appearances from the start of 2023 through the 2024 All-Star break, despite multiple injuries.

So, what went horribly wrong?

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This is an awesome writeup. Thanks!

Curious where his eventual/primary defensive home will be. I could see him at 2b, 1b or even the outfield along with 3b. But it'd probably be better for him to be at one spot most often. 

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

Excellent analysis, your summary was spot on.  How he responds will be critical to the team's success next year.  I don't see the Twins trading him.  They would be selling low.  Another question is what position he plays next year.  Do you add to his plate, besides solving hitting woes, learning a new position?  My thinking is the Twins need his bat more.  Leave him at third, let the younger player Lee move to 2nd.  last thought, I believe in his character, he will respond positively.

 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

 

So, what went horribly wrong?

 

Major League pitchers adapted and found his weak spots.

[Matthew Trueblood]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

Major League pitchers adapted and found his weak spots.

A little bit... but that's not the primary answer. Sign up! I think you'd find the Caretakers-exclusive section interesting analysis.

[stringer bell]

Thanks for the awesome article. Royce has been figuratively knocked down, now he must dust himself off and adjust. I think he will, but this is another player who needs to prove something at this point in time.

[Parker Hageman]

I don't believe his issues in the second half stemmed from the timing of his front side mechanics. In all instances, Lewis makes his first move when the pitcher does. Now a pitcher's lift timing, cadence, and pitch selection can and does throw off that next sequence. 

To me, more of this adds up to issues related to his rear leg, specifically the adductor injury from July. 

We can see that the sprint speed is down. The average bat speed dropped during the year. The fast swing rate drops (from 46% to 33%). As mentioned in the article, his ability to separate fastballs and changeups took a drastic turn (less exit velo, more grounders, popups, and weak contact). 

The rear leg holds a lot of the tension in the swing. It can create power and hold your weight shift when you get a pitch you were not expecting. If a hitter can't control it effectively, you will see more instances of lunging or getting beat more frequently. 

To me, the positive takeaway is that if he is able to get healthy this offseason, he should be able to return to a somewhat comparable output as his first half (although I would argue that teams will and have adjusted). 

[LambchoP]

I hope he can bounce back this year. A lot of that will depend on him staying healthy. I do think he needs a permanent defensive position. Either keep him at third or let him be our long term first baseman. I think Lee profiles better at second and third. Miranda can also play third and back up Royce at first, if we don't sign a first baseman.

[Penthang]

I joined the caretaker club for just this type of analysis, thanks. I do hope however, that Parker is correct about leg issues being a large factor and that Royce can have a largely healthy season in 2025.