Core or Out the Door: Twins Trade Away Candidates, 6-10

[KBJ1]

We need to make Jax a SP since we can't afford any, and then sign some Good bullpen guys! Will still cost $$, but much cheaper than SP.

Trade bats for pitching, not the other way round.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, dogman said:

Time to bring up the guys from the minors and re-build...Past time actually.   

Who should be traded away? For what?

who replaces them?

[joefish]

I'd keep Jax. 

[Coach]

Remember the Twins roster built in 1984. We have a good core of youngsters, that we played bad to get (draft choices).  Stay with the plan. 

[DocBauer]

I'm going to go in reverse order here:

JAX and DURAN: Neither will be overly expensive in 2025. Both are very good, even though Duran was more "human" this past year. The Twins have the arms/depth to have a very good pen in 2025, all the moreso if Falvey can find a little wiggle room to bring in a solid, experienced LHRP from somewhere. There were a few interesting options in an OP recently about FA options that might fit. IMO, you DON'T short change the pen right when it's about ready to be really good and has depth.

OBER: Again, I've heard thoughts about moving 1 of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober. Once again, neither Ryan or Ober are overly expensive for 2025. If Lopez were a FA, he's probably looking at $25M per on the market and only costs a little over $20M this upcoming season. Despite some very good looking young arms ready to arrive, who possibly replaces any of those 3, including Ober in this particular OP. Might as well punt on 2025 if you're trading one of these 3.

WALLNER: Yes, he K's a lot so far. He also actually does HIT and get OB and has massive power and is a dangerous hitter. Yes, he's also been somewhat streaky so far. But he's also an .866 OPS bat in his ML career thus far. That's HUGE! And there's a pretty good chance he's improves his K % going forward to be more dangerous and consistent. Who POSSIBLY replaces him at this time?

LEE: Previously a top 100 prospect, (top 50?), he's technically not a rookie any longer due to number of days on the ML roster, but for all basic intent and purposes, he's a rookie. I don't want to trade him, and I'm sure the Twins don't want to trade him. There's a lot of good projection to his game, and playing through a shoulder injury in his rookie debut doesn't diminish his perceived value, IMO. But IMO he's the most likely one on this list to be moved in a prospect package IF the FO wants to go looking for a young catcher, discussed/proposed in another recent OP here on TD. I can see the Twins moving one of Lee, Keaschall, or Kaelen Culpepper...remember they moved Petty right after drafting him in the Gray deal...along with one of their better SP arms, possibly with another lower level prospect..Gonzalez or Mercedes in the OF for example...for said young catcher. Boston might be a perfect fit for a trade of this nature. It would HURT to do a trade like this, but it would be the kind of trade that works for both sides, and make it easier to move Vazquez. 

I don't think the Twins will move a young, controllable player, or players, unless they get a young, controllable asset back. 

So I'm a firm NO for 4 on this list for all the reasons stated, but could see Lee as a possible inclusion in a deal.

[jmlease1]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Brooks Lee's consistent ineptitude at the plate along with the confirmation of his lack of physical tools will scare off most teams from investing heavily. Lee's also pre-arb so it's not expensive to keep him around and hope he gets closer to his ceiling.

I think you're a lot further down on Lee than the rest of the league.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I think you're a lot further down on Lee than the rest of the league.

If I were Derek Falvey, I'd have the trade form for Brooks Lee already for signature and sitting on my desk for every single team in baseball with just the opposing team's player(s) missing from the document so I could scan and email it before the end of the phone call. Just in case another team still viewed Lee as a potential elite value prospect.

[harmony55]

An unpopular comp for Royce Lewis would be Atlanta outfielder Jarred Kelenic, another former Top 6 draft pick who is 41 days younger than Lewis.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Lewis and Kelenic with 2025 arbitration salaries of $2.3 million as Super Twos. Lewis has two years and 142 days of MLB service while Kelenic has two years and 169 days of MLB service.

Lewis is coming off a season of 0.7 bWAR and an OPS+ of 107 in 82 games after posting 2.4 bWAR and an OPS+ of 149 the previous year. In his season before his trade to Atlanta, Kelenic had posted 2.0 bWAR and an OPS+ of 111 in 105 games.

In Kelenic's trade to Atlanta, Seattle attached lefthander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White, who were owed a combined $27.5 millon over two seasons. In return the Mariners received pitchers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips, lottery tickets who missed the 2024 season after TJS but who come with six years of team control.

Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Lewis a surplus value of $26.3 million while a year ago assigning Kelenic a surplus value of $19.4 million even though at the time Kelenic had a year more of team control than Lewis currently has.

What that means for the current trade value of Royce Lewis is difficult to determine, especially with Lewis' injury history. The Twins might well be better off keeping Lewis and hoping for the best.