Scouring the Market for a Capable Left-Handed Reliever

[DocBauer]

To be clear, the days of a LOOGY are done. I'd rather have 8 RH quality arms in my pen who can HOPEFULLY get a LH batter out than a lefty specialist. That's why Okert was so disappointing and while the collapse of Thielbar was more so, as he was solid for a few years against RH bats. 

I know I'm repeating myself here, and I'm not offering up answers right now, but figuring out 1B, adding a quality RH OF bat who doesn't such against RHP, and ONE quality LHRP are the top 3 priorities for the FO in 2025. 

HOPEFULLY you still have ONE good LH arm you can trust in the 7th and 8th, think Thielbar pre 2024. IDEALLY, you have a 2nd LH arm you can feel good about in the 6th and maybe the 7th. Even IF the FO raises payroll as a "goodbye present" to the FO that will cost them pennies, the Twins probably aren't going to be able to add a $5M dollar RP no matter what. So I immediately dismiss the top options.

Without taking the time to look at every single pitcher I reference here in regard to splits, there are some interesting ideas here.

I agree Bummer looks good, but he's probably re-upped with the Braves.

Dangit! So who's next? 

Chafin keeps plugging along and doing his thing, but I'm not interested in good K numbers and bad BB numbers from a 34yo arm who made $5M last season.

Ferguson had a bad year with a high BB total but good K % at 28yo and only made $2.4M last year? He should be a major target!

Raley should be a MILB target at his age and coming off surgery. Period. (But I'd do it). 

Smith is also a MILB deal target. Period. 

I'm betting Bummer won't be an option. I'm interested in Chafin on a 1yr deal less than the almost $5M he made last year. Ferguson sticks out to me as a smart signing despite some high BB numbers. He only made about $2.5M last year. And Raley on an incentive deal falls right in line with the way Falvey has often looked at pitching opportunities in the past. Raley is similar to the Pineda deal a few years ago.

MY THEORY ON LHRP is conversion. NOT MENTIONED in the OP is, are there LHP out there late 20's who haven't put it together yet, or coming off injury, that can be moved to the pen to maximize their stuff and re-define their career?

INTERNALLY, I'm 100% on moving Headrick to the pen tomorrow and throwing his best stuff for 1-2 IP and see what you've got. I'm on the same boat with Nowlin...i hate not waiting to see if he MIGHT settle in as a SP option...but with so many other rotation options ahead of him, i think any control issues can be mitigated by being a hard throwing LH option in the pen vs waiting and hoping he's a late draftee who MIGHT be a back end rotation arm. 

Headrick and Nowlin and the talented Funderburk, who has good stuff, should all be in ST to see what they can do. Funderburk is already in the pen, but Headrick and Nowlin should also be. ONE MORE addition from what Nick has presented, or maybe another option from somewhere else I'm not thinking of right now, COULD/SHOULD give the pen multiple options.

Let's not forget that come May, or June, if not immediately, Moran is a very talented arm that might surprise everyone.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

To be clear, the days of a LOOGY are done. I'd rather have 8 RH quality arms in my pen who can HOPEFULLY get a LH batter out than a lefty specialist. That's why Okert was so disappointing and while the collapse of Thielbar was more so, as he was solid for a few years against RH bats. 

I know I'm repeating myself here, and I'm not offering up answers right now, but figuring out 1B, adding a quality RH OF bat who doesn't such against RHP, and ONE quality LHRP are the top 3 priorities for the FO in 2025. 

HOPEFULLY you still have ONE good LH arm you can trust in the 7th and 8th, think Thielbar pre 2024. IDEALLY, you have a 2nd LH arm you can feel good about in the 6th and maybe the 7th. Even IF the FO raises payroll as a "goodbye present" to the FO that will cost them pennies, the Twins probably aren't going to be able to add a $5M dollar RP no matter what. So I immediately dismiss the top options.

Without taking the time to look at every single pitcher I reference here in regard to splits, there are some interesting ideas here.

I agree Bummer looks good, but he's probably re-upped with the Braves.

Dangit! So who's next? 

Chafin keeps plugging along and doing his thing, but I'm not interested in good K numbers and bad BB numbers from a 34yo arm who made $5M last season.

Ferguson had a bad year with a high BB total but good K % at 28yo and only made $2.4M last year? He should be a major target!

Raley should be a MILB target at his age and coming off surgery. Period. (But I'd do it). 

Smith is also a MILB deal target. Period. 

I'm betting Bummer won't be an option. I'm interested in Chafin on a 1yr deal less than the almost $5M he made last year. Ferguson sticks out to me as a smart signing despite some high BB numbers. He only made about $2.5M last year. And Raley on an incentive deal falls right in line with the way Falvey has often looked at pitching opportunities in the past. Raley is similar to the Pineda deal a few years ago.

MY THEORY ON LHRP is conversion. NOT MENTIONED in the OP is, are there LHP out there late 20's who haven't put it together yet, or coming off injury, that can be moved to the pen to maximize their stuff and re-define their career?

INTERNALLY, I'm 100% on moving Headrick to the pen tomorrow and throwing his best stuff for 1-2 IP and see what you've got. I'm on the same boat with Nowlin...i hate not waiting to see if he MIGHT settle in as a SP option...but with so many other rotation options ahead of him, i think any control issues can be mitigated by being a hard throwing LH option in the pen vs waiting and hoping he's a late draftee who MIGHT be a back end rotation arm. 

Headrick and Nowlin and the talented Funderburk, who has good stuff, should all be in ST to see what they can do. Funderburk is already in the pen, but Headrick and Nowlin should also be. ONE MORE addition from what Nick has presented, or maybe another option from somewhere else I'm not thinking of right now, COULD/SHOULD give the pen multiple options.

Let's not forget that come May, or June, if not immediately, Moran is a very talented arm that might surprise everyone.

 

 

A Lefty that can get Righties out works as well. If you’re playing chess, it would be good to have a full set of pieces. Rocco never had a Lefty that caused the other manager to suboptimize the rest of the game.

[terrydactyls]

20 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Find some quotes to that effect. The quotes I've seen from pitchers is they prefer some form of routine. Aside from that, I don't think I've ever seen anybody advocate for anything other than setup/closer roles. I'm not advocating for anything; just repeating what pitchers have talked about in the press.

Find some quotes to that effect.

[terrydactyls]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

 

MY THEORY ON LHRP is conversion. NOT MENTIONED in the OP is, are there LHP out there late 20's who haven't put it together yet, or coming off injury, that can be moved to the pen to maximize their stuff and re-define their career?

 

 

Once again, you stole my idea and posted it before I could. 😇. So let me expand that brilliant comment by adding that hard throwing (but not performing well) pitchers in the minors should also be signed (to MiLB contracts).  If you sign 10 or 12 of these, maybe one or two might work out.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

20 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I agree. This is similar to my feeling that if you're scared that calling up a young player will damage their psyche should they initially fail, that player likely shouldn't be in the long term plans. If these guys can't mentally handle the adversity or role change, they probably aren't the kind of guy that can perform and lead the team to post season success.

And full disclosure, I'm also not that guy. I went behind the bleachers and barfed before every one of my high school track meets. So no judgements, just my observation. Winners seem to be built differently.

Great comments. 

[Finlander]

Regarding handedness, keep in mind that all of the rotation options are RH. That to me makes it even more imperative that we find some lefty relief to present pitches to hitters that spin on a different axis.

[mrcharlie]

On 10/28/2024 at 8:51 AM, bean5302 said:

People are human with stress factors and emotions which get mixed into their thought processes. Joe Nathan talked about not wanting to close because of confidence issues when he returned from TJ. There is extra pressure associated with closing. It's all on the pitcher, no chances to come back, etc. Many pitchers have talked about the added stress of closing or the benefits of knowing their position and their job rather than just being tossed around in the bullpen and never knowing what's coming next.

Your point about knowing a role on the roster is spot on.  That requires evaluating and planning from FO and coaching staff that I suspect is less than the MLB standard here.  Among the names listed I think the best opportunity given Twins $ and proven talent is Ferguson.  Our best chance of picking up an impact arm is by trade though.