In-House Roster Decisions the Twins Need to Make in November

[Greglw3]

On 10/14/2024 at 2:38 PM, Greglw3 said:

I’m keeping prospects Raya, Rosario and Cespedes.

Let go:

Kepler, DeSclafani, Castro, Jeffers, Tonkin, Topa, Stewart.

Retain: Ober, Jax, Alcala, Ryan, Duran, Lewis.

Larnach is a 50/50 call, I think they can do better in LF.

As of now, retain Santana or get a free agent but don’t depend on Kirilloff in team plans at all.

The new owners have some work to do. Must get a viable backup SS and CF unless they feel Keirsey can handle backup.

10 thumbs down but by making these cuts the Twins could, with a new and hungry front office have an outfield of

Lf Jurickson Profar, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Jesse Winker (RF/DH). Grichuk

An infield of 3B Lewis, SS Correa, 2B A. Rosario/B Lee/Keaschall, 1B P Goldschmidt 

Starter Manea, Kikuchi

 

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Austin Barnes, Elias Diaz, Jacob Stallings, 

Barnes in 34 and can't hit it past second base. Diaz is 33 with zero power. Stallings is 34 and played in Colorado. You like those three better? Speechless. 

[Greglw3]

On 10/17/2024 at 5:23 PM, DJL44 said:

MLB batting average was .265 in 1979. It's .243 now. The highest batting average of any team in 2024 was .263. The Twins aren't going to hit 15 points higher than the best team in baseball.

To assemble a team that hits .280 in 2024 you would need to have every player better than the top 5 in batting average at their position.

5th best batting average at each position in 2024:

1B Yandy Diaz .281 (Miranda hit .284 FWIW)

2B Brendan Donovan .278 

SS Corey Seager .278

3B Rafael Devers .272

LF Lourdes Gurriel .279

CF Julio Rodriguez .273

RF Fernando Tatis Jr .276

C Salvador Perez .271

DH Marcell Ozuna .302

So, the Twins just need to acquire an All-Star caliber bat at every position (with a $130M budget) and the team can hit .280. Simple.

Twins were 16 points above league batting average in 1977 and 6 in 2024. The noteworthy part is they had 

Carew .388 1b #1 +122

Bostock .336 lf #1 +70

Adams .338 dh #1 +72

Hisle .302 cf #2 +36

Then around league average were Rf Dan Ford, C Butch Wynegar, 3B Mike Cubbage and below average at SS with one of Roy Smalley’s off years and at 2B with Bobby Randall and Rob WIlfong.

If Calvin Griffith could assemble a group of just 4 hitters like that, why can’t a new ownership group who is coming in aspire to something similar (except Carew’s .388).

This is what I grew up with and several other teams like it in the 70s. The Twins were known for their good hitting. Not any more as we accept .190 hitters (Cave), a .177 hitter (Gallo) and low .200s hitters like Vazquez and Jeffers. 

 

There are good hitters out there. Go get free agents Jurickson Profar for LF and Jesse Winker for RF/1B/DH.

 

[Greglw3]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Barnes in 34 and can't hit it past second base. Diaz is 33 with zero power. Stallings is 34 and played in Colorado. You like those three better? Speechless. 

Hmm. Barnes had a batting average 24 points above AL league average at .264 and he can’t hit it past second base.

You really do need higher batting averages on the Twins. Teams with lots of low batting averages bog down as we’ve seen from the Twins the last few years. .264 for a catcher is very very good.

I’m just trying to solve problems and make this nondescript team better. I also suggest signing Jurickson Profar for LF and Jesse Winker for 1B/RF/DH. Profar, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Correa, Lee/Julian, Winker,

Also sign Manea and Kikuchi.

Savings on Jeffers salary or Vazquez’s, Kepler’s salary, Margot’s salary and Farmer’s salary plus new owners likely to restore spending to competitive levels. 

Sign Danny Jansen if you don’t like the others.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Twins were 16 points above league batting average in 1977 and 6 in 2024.

I'm sure the twins could assemble a lineup that is 16 points above league average. That team would hit ..260, not .280. You can't defy a league-wide trend by finding "the right" players.

[Greglw3]

54 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm sure the twins could assemble a lineup that is 16 points above league average. That team would hit ..260, not .280. You can't defy a league-wide trend by finding "the right" players.

Profar and Winker would have lifted the Twins toward the +16 just themselves. Two players I’ve lobbied for on here and/or Twins twitter.  Both available free agents now.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Profar and Winker would have lifted the Twins toward the +16 just themselves. Two players I’ve lobbied for on here and/or Twins twitter.  Both available free agents now.

Profar is a great fit for the Twins but I'm not sure they have any budget space to acquire him.

Jesse Winker hit .199 for the Brewers in 2023 and .243 for the Mets this year. He's a pretty volatile batter and a below average fielder. He doesn't add anything.

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Hmm. Barnes had a batting average 24 points above AL league average at .264 and he can’t hit it past second base.

You really do need higher batting averages on the Twins. Teams with lots of low batting averages bog down as we’ve seen from the Twins the last few years. .264 for a catcher is very very good.

I’m just trying to solve problems and make this nondescript team better. I also suggest signing Jurickson Profar for LF and Jesse Winker for 1B/RF/DH. Profar, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Correa, Lee/Julian, Winker,

Also sign Manea and Kikuchi.

Savings on Jeffers salary or Vazquez’s, Kepler’s salary, Margot’s salary and Farmer’s salary plus new owners likely to restore spending to competitive levels. 

Sign Danny Jansen if you don’t like the others.

How much do you think Manea / Kukuchi, Winker, and Profar will cost?

Salary decreases from the players you mentioned will be offset by Increases to Lopez, Paddack, and several arbitration increases.  If you want to pretend just for fun, great but this is not remotely feasible.  

[Greglw3]

On 10/19/2024 at 11:16 AM, Major League Ready said:

How much do you think Manea / Kukuchi, Winker, and Profar will cost?

Salary decreases from the players you mentioned will be offset by Increases to Lopez, Paddack, and several arbitration increases.  If you want to pretend just for fun, great but this is not remotely feasible.  

With a quality new ownership group dedicated to excellence, those 4 moves are entirely possible. Salary could be in the 160 or 170  range.

In addition to Vasquez or Jeffers, farmer, Kepler, Margot also include Santana’s 6MM. I’d be inclined to trade Paddock for prospects.

Lopez, Ober, Manea, Kikuchi, Richardson and Festa and maybe later Matthews, Andrew Morris should do well.

[Greglw3]

On 10/19/2024 at 10:56 AM, DJL44 said:

Profar is a great fit for the Twins but I'm not sure they have any budget space to acquire him.

Jesse Winker hit .199 for the Brewers in 2023 and .243 for the Mets this year. He's a pretty volatile batter and a below average fielder. He doesn't add anything.

 

Career 118 OPS+ career .804 OPS, career .367 OBP in well over 2000 AB. Which other Twins have a lifetime BA over .262 with a lifetime OBP over .367??? Winker would be a proven steady bat and he’s hit 24 homers in a season as well.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

With a quality new ownership group dedicated to excellence, those 4 moves are entirely possible. Salary could be in the 160 or 170  range.

In addition to Vasquez or Jeffers, farmer, Kepler, Margot also include Santana’s 6MM. I’d be inclined to trade Paddock for prospects.

Lopez, Ober, Manea, Kikuchi, Richardson and Festa and maybe later Matthews, Andrew Morris should do well.

For starters the odds of a sale going through before these guys are signed is next to zero so it's a meaningless exercise.  In addition, nobody is taking Vazquez Salary and you are not taking into account the increase to Lopez and numerous arbitration eligible players.  It would also cost more to replace Jeffers than keep him.   If you traded Paddack for prospects you would be at $130M and you have close to $70M in free agents so you are at $200M.   

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Winker would be a proven steady bat and he’s hit 24 homers in a season as well.

And he hated Milwaukee. Why would he want to come to Minnesota?

[Greglw3]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

For starters the odds of a sale going through before these guys are signed is next to zero so it's a meaningless exercise.  In addition, nobody is taking Vazquez Salary and you are not taking into account the increase to Lopez and numerous arbitration eligible players.  It would also cost more to replace Jeffers than keep him.   If you traded Paddack for prospects you would be at $130M and you have close to $70M in free agents so you are at $200M.   

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I will take the over on your predictions for all of these free agents.  

[Greglw3]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I will take the over on your predictions for all of these free agents.  

All garnered from Fangraphs/MLBTR so not my predictions. I took the numbers that were printed. Perhaps there will be higher updates.

Do you like this rotation and concede that I’ve wildly improved the backups for SS & 2B and have a better lineup than 2024 and Grichuk vastly better than Margot?

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

All garnered from Fangraphs/MLBTR so not my predictions. I took the numbers that were printed. Perhaps there will be higher updates.

Do you like this rotation and concede that I’ve wildly improved the backups for SS & 2B and have a better lineup than 2024 and Grichuk vastly better than Margot?

I would not want to rely on Camargo and you are just ignoring reality when you dump $10M for Vasquez.  He is worth virtually nothing so the savings would be negligible.  You also don't improve the "backups" by getting rid  of Castro for DeJong.  Grichuk is coming off a very good year and he is not signing for $2M.  Plus, they have Rodriquez close.  

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I would not want to rely on Camargo and you are just ignoring reality when you dump $10M for Vasquez.  He is worth virtually nothing so the savings would be negligible.  You also don't improve the "backups" by getting rid  of Castro for DeJong.  Grichuk is coming off a very good year and he is not signing for $2M.  Plus, they have Rodriquez close.  

To be clear, I would be dumping 5MM for Vazquez. Another catching needy team could have him for 5MM. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHat’s your solution? How can we win 90 games next year or make a jump remotely close to KC this last season?

[tony&rodney]

John Bonnes or Brock will put up the calculator in November. That is soon enough. Let's enjoy the World Series.

I seriously doubt a payroll beyond $140 million. More than half of all MLB teams will come in at or below that number. Everyone has their take but I'm not one to suggest the team is severely hindered by payroll. Yes, it would be sweet to have a $150-175 million payroll to afford a few mistakes and widen to scope of who is possible for 2025. However, there are legitimate trades to make and players to add along with a few prospects to test out. Falvey needs to put his golf clubs away until May and get some work done this season. A failure on his part will likely mean his career moves away from sports and toward some other big business job.

[hwysong]

I think that they should be looking at the unprotected player Will Holland. He’s a very talented utility player.