Why the Twins should not trade Willingham.

[chopper0080]

The Twins should be viewed as sellers this trade deadline, but they need to do so with an eye to 2014. The moves they do or do not make will impact the roles and expectations for Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano. I understand that Sano might not start 2014 with the Twins, but it seems his rise to the major leagues at some point in time in 2014 is inevitable. Because of all of this, it is my opinion that the Twins should not trade Josh Willingham unless they are totally blown away by an offer. Willingham has had a decrease in production compared to his 2012 season, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is still the best power hitter the Twins have on the team. Normally you would believe Willingham’s production is incredibly replaceable, but that being said, what is the likelihood the Twins will spend to bring in another power bat? Keeping Willingham on the roster does not only give the team a legitimate power option in the middle of their order, but forces Arcia and Sano down in the order which decreases the pressure on them next year. It should also lead to them getting better pitches to hit batting behind Mauer and Willingham. Sano’s early time at AA proves why this is very important. While both he and Arcia begin to learn the major league game, the Twins need to have a lineup in place that forces pitchers to give them pitches to hit so they can have an impact on the game. Having a legitimate power threat in the 4 spot of the lineup does this, and the rest is up to them.

 

At this point, I have to believe Willingham has more value to the Twins than he would net in a trade. No reason to sell low.

 

Thoughts?

[stringer bell]

Agree that of the three veterans (Morneau, Doumit, and the Hammer) that Willingham should be the one to keep for now. Doumit because of health, position scarcity and relatively robust production, may have increased his value for the deadline, Morneau is not earning his keep now and I can't see a scenario where he will do so for the Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

The only acceptable answer to this "why?" is:

 

Because they should've done it last year during his career year.

[Todd God Walker]

Willingham is a defensive liability who can be a very productive RBI guy. I'm a big advocate of playing for the future - That is, not wasting time and resources on a guy who won't be around when the team could be successful.

 

Yeah, selling low is a problem. We did it with Liriano, we did it with Delmon. I'd assume we could get a trade done after the non-waiver deadline with Willingham, like we have in the past with guys like Casilla.. Maybe he'll turn it on and raise his value, or maybe a middle of the lineup guy will go down on a contending team and they will be willing to trade a good prospect for him.

 

Nonetheless, I'd rather see Arcia on a daily basis.

[D-Hawk]

I think Willingham would be good to keep, but mainly because I see him here for the long haul and see Buxton as the potential trade piece this deadline. A great way for us to compete right now and still have Sano.

[TheLeviathan]

I think Willingham would be good to keep, but mainly because I see him here for the long haul and see Buxton as the potential trade piece this deadline. A great way for us to compete right now and still have Sano.

 

Please explain how the mid-30 year old outfielder with a litany of career injury problems is more here for "the long haul".

[D-Hawk]

Please explain how the mid-30 year old outfielder with a litany of career injury problems is more here for "the long haul".

 

Well I like Plouffe and Dozier to be on this team, and I think Willingham is a great hitting tutor for both of them to learn from. Personally, I would like to see Willingham retire a Twin and potentially take over manager.

 

So I guess when I say long haul I mean part player part coach. Where I just see Buxton as a flash in the pan and nothing special. Kind of like the JD Durbin of hitters. SO I say trade him while he is hot.

[Boom Boom]

It's weird to think that if Willingham was hitting like last year we'd trade him for whatever we can get... but now that he's been in a 2 1/2 month slump, we want to keep him.

[TheLeviathan]

Well I like Plouffe and Dozier to be on this team, and I think Willingham is a great hitting tutor for both of them to learn from. Personally, I would like to see Willingham retire a Twin and potentially take over manager.

 

So I guess when I say long haul I mean part player part coach. Where I just see Buxton as a flash in the pan and nothing special. Kind of like the JD Durbin of hitters. SO I say trade him while he is hot.

 

I was hoping for an entertaining response. But a JD Durbin reference along with it?

 

Wow.

[SwainZag]

Well I like Plouffe and Dozier to be on this team, and I think Willingham is a great hitting tutor for both of them to learn from. Personally, I would like to see Willingham retire a Twin and potentially take over manager.

 

So I guess when I say long haul I mean part player part coach. Where I just see Buxton as a flash in the pan and nothing special. Kind of like the JD Durbin of hitters. SO I say trade him while he is hot.

 

Is this a parody account? Are we all being punk'd? OK, where are the cameras??

[Winston Smith]

Make any trade that will make the team better long term. However, there is no way in hell that the Twins trade either Sano or Buxton.

Does anyone remember the last time Ryan traded a prospect for help at the "major league level"? The last time I can think of is Castillo from the Marlins for a couple mid level pitchers before the 2006 season. Before that I can't think of any.

[Monkeypaws]

Ramos for Capps?

[chopper0080]

Make any trade that will make the team better long term. However, there is no way in hell that the Twins trade either Sano or Buxton.

Does anyone remember the last time Ryan traded a prospect for help at the "major league level"? The last time I can think of is Castillo from the Marlins for a couple mid level pitchers before the 2006 season. Before that I can't think of any.

 

and my arguement is that not trading Willingham might be in the best interest of the Twins in 2014. He likely won't bring much in the way of a trade and his bat in the middle of the lineup allows the Twins to ease Arcia and Sano's bats into the lineup without putting all of the pressure to score runs on them.

[chopper0080]

It's weird to think that if Willingham was hitting like last year we'd trade him for whatever we can get... but now that he's been in a 2 1/2 month slump, we want to keep him.

 

Weird but valid. I don't see the Twins as a team who will spend next offseason to get another 20+ home run player, and Willingham is cheap. More than that, he probably won't net much of a prospect. Better to keep him to take pressure off of our young hitters IMO.

[chopper0080]

Willingham is a defensive liability who can be a very productive RBI guy. I'm a big advocate of playing for the future - That is, not wasting time and resources on a guy who won't be around when the team could be successful.

 

Yeah, selling low is a problem. We did it with Liriano, we did it with Delmon. I'd assume we could get a trade done after the non-waiver deadline with Willingham, like we have in the past with guys like Casilla.. Maybe he'll turn it on and raise his value, or maybe a middle of the lineup guy will go down on a contending team and they will be willing to trade a good prospect for him.

 

Nonetheless, I'd rather see Arcia on a daily basis.

 

My hope is the Twins trade Morneau and Doumit which would move Willingham to more of a DH / sub LF role with the team which is where I feel he fits best.

[greengoblinrulz]

Twins found that after a Silver Slugger year, Josh doesnt have trade value so what is he gonna have in a normal year??

When we signed him, I envisioned a .250 22/23hr 80rbi guy w/65/70bb. That's what he is now for the most part. Just get him out of the field even if it means keeping Doumit on the bench. Gardy is terrified of actually DHing terrible fielding OFs for some reason. He has no clue about OF defense helping this crappy pitching staff.

[Kwak]

Trade: ____, ______, and/or _____. Please be realistic, Twins players aren't "in demand".

Any trade the Twins propose will be viewed as a salary dump, refer to: Young an Hardy.

[Shane Wahl]

Letting Willingham just walk away after next year would be a mistake. There are going to be teams interested in him at the deadline (see New York Yankees, and maybe the Rangers, Reds, and Orioles) and the Twins should try to get whatever they can. There is zero long-term possibility for him and 2014 should really be left to the youth movement.

[greengoblinrulz]

Twins are in a bad shape financially. Ryan tried to be coy in cutting payroll as he knew they werent trying to be competitive (this season is absolutely been best case) but dealing the 21m of Willy/Justin & getting nothing back (which they wont) cannot be hid.

Ryan isnt gonna spend a cent in the offseason & they will have a 50-55m payroll next yr (if they use their propsects, few have a problem w/that tho). Its using bargain basement players like Florimon, Walters, Deduno, Thomas that will get people upset.

This is why I could see them keeping both & letting Justin walk as they wont get anything but they wont be seen as cutting payroll.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Almost no one is going to bend over backwards to get Willingham.

 

That said, I appreciate the logic of a team that has no RH power hitters keeping Josh. I believe we can expect a bit of a rebound next year and we badly need power from the right side, even if Plouffe shows he is a real threat.

[drjim]

Make any trade that will make the team better long term. However, there is no way in hell that the Twins trade either Sano or Buxton.

Does anyone remember the last time Ryan traded a prospect for help at the "major league level"? The last time I can think of is Castillo from the Marlins for a couple mid level pitchers before the 2006 season. Before that I can't think of any.

 

I agree with the first sentence.

 

In regards to the second half very few small market teams trade prospects for established players (ie the Rays). Unrealistic to expect much different from the Twins. But I'll add Kielty for Stewart.

[chopper0080]

Letting Willingham just walk away after next year would be a mistake. There are going to be teams interested in him at the deadline (see New York Yankees, and maybe the Rangers, Reds, and Orioles) and the Twins should try to get whatever they can. There is zero long-term possibility for him and 2014 should really be left to the youth movement.

 

Why is letting a 20+ HR right handed bat play out year 2 of a 3 year deal a bad thing when he probably won't net more than an A ball mid range prospect? Yes, if the Twins get a top 15 prospect from a team, they hsould trade him. But, I can't see any universe where that will happen. Willingham is more valuable to the Twins than he is as a trade piece. He is a right handed, veteran power bat who is ok DH'ing and will allow the Twins to take pressure off their young hitters like Sano, Arcia and possibly Rosario next year.

 

The idea of Joe Mauer and the Super Prospects is a fantasy land. You have to bring prospects into a decent situation where they are not asked to carry the team from day one.

 

Understand that if we traded Willingham, Arcia might the second/third best bat we have on the Twins roster. That is the sad state of affairs that we are currently in.

[Guest USAFChief]

Why is letting a 20+ HR right handed bat play out year 2 of a 3 year deal a bad thing when he probably won't net more than an A ball mid range prospect? Yes, if the Twins get a top 15 prospect from a team, they hsould trade him. But, I can't see any universe where that will happen. Willingham is more valuable to the Twins than he is as a trade piece. He is a right handed, veteran power bat who is ok DH'ing and will allow the Twins to take pressure off their young hitters like Sano, Arcia and possibly Rosario next year.

 

The idea of Joe Mauer and the Super Prospects is a fantasy land. You have to bring prospects into a decent situation where they are not asked to carry the team from day one.

 

Understand that if we traded Willingham, Arcia might the second/third best bat we have on the Twins roster. That is the sad state of affairs that we are currently in.

I would go so far as to say I'm not even interested in a "top 15 in an organization" prospect. The chances of such a player ever being better than Willingham are miniscule.

 

I want the Twins to win. Now. If not now, next year. If not next year, the year after.