When the window's open........

[TheLeviathan]

Not all prospect trades are for rentals. And, even if they were, would you trade 4 years of decent/goodness, followed by this mess, for 1 or 2 WS championships?

 

I would....if that worked. Look back at the last 10-15 years of WS titles and tell me what big trades landed them that title. Truth is, your odds of winning the WS are about the same.

 

Most trades are more about getting you into the playoffs, after that it's virtually a crapshoot.

[jokin]

In fairness, it's hard to slam an opposing view if you don't use extremes to make a point...

 

Yeah, because the side that wants a change in philosophy is all-about, and only about, $300M FA contracts and trading away big-time prospects for marginal 2-year FA upgrades.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would....if that worked. Look back at the last 10-15 years of WS titles and tell me what big trades landed them that title. Truth is, your odds of winning the WS are about the same.

 

Most trades are more about getting you into the playoffs, after that it's virtually a crapshoot.

 

This, this, this.

 

I hate to be the guy who yells "Scoreboard!" as proof of anything, but it needs to be done in this thread.

 

We're not lacking in examples here. Just look at the past 20 years. It's a selective memory that forgets all those teams that pushed their chips to black and watched the ball land on red. They're far more common than those teams that actually won after risking it all.

 

Risking it all is a bad bet, particularly on a game that relies so heavily on chance. The best team in history still lost 25% of its games. This isn't the NFL or NBA.

[ThePuck]

Yeah, because the side that wants a change in philosophy is all-about, and only about, $300M FA contracts and trading away big-time prospects for marginal 2-year FA upgrades.

 

exactly.

[jay]

I'm actually fine with how the Jays approached it. They built their farm but couldn't get over the hump, so they made some aggressive moves to turn some prospects into MLBers.

 

Similar approach by KC this offseason, but the Jays were probably closer to contention and I liked their moves better.

[Mike Sixel]

Are you guys arguing that the Twins of the 2000s would not have benefited from getting a real DH in exchange either for money or a prospect?

 

The Yankees of 2009, they had guys they traded for.

Philly in 2008

2012 Giants had some guys they traded for....

The Red Sox had guys they traded for

 

As a matter of fact, I find it hard to find a team that did not use FA and trades to get WS championships......

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm actually fine with how the Jays approached it. They built their farm but couldn't get over the hump, so they made some aggressive moves to turn some prospects into MLBers.

 

Similar approach by KC this offseason, but the Jays were probably closer to contention and I liked their moves better.

 

The Jays are in a difficult situation that doesn't apply to the Twins. They're in the AL East. They can't let a slow trickle of prospects develop and then build a franchise over a 5-6 year period. They'll never be good enough to compete with the Yankees and Sox, so they choose a season where both the Yankees and Sox look weak and they go for it. I don't fault them for that.

 

But the Twins don't have to play by that system. They're in the Central, a division that they can win (and remain dominant) by allowing a slow trickle of prospects to continually feed that well.

 

Do it enough times and you will win a ring.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Are you guys arguing that the Twins of the 2000s would not have benefited from getting a real DH in exchange either for money or a prospect?

 

The Yankees of 2009, they had guys they traded for.

Philly in 2008

2012 Giants had some guys they traded for....

The Red Sox had guys they traded for

 

As a matter of fact, I find it hard to find a team that did not use FA and trades to get WS championships......

 

They did pick up players. Reed, Stewart, and then... mostly crap, really. Maybe I'm forgetting someone. Ryan was too cautious in the second half of the 2000s, IMO.

 

I'm not against trading any prospect. I think it's a good idea to occasionally let a B or C prospect go to boost that year's team. Not every season, but it won't kill you if you do it every so often.

 

But after posting on Twins forums for the past 14 seasons, there are many people who think it's a good idea to trade someone like Buxton for a run at 2014 (supposing the Twins are in contention in 2014).

 

And that's just dumb. And it rarely works out for anyone other than the team receiving the prospect in return for the veteran.

[ashbury]

In fairness, it's hard to slam an opposing view if you don't use extremes to make a point...

 

So you advocate using extreme viewpoints to make your case in any and all circumstances? You know who else held that position, in Germany in the 1930s?

[TheLeviathan]

Are you guys arguing that the Twins of the 2000s would not have benefited from getting a real DH in exchange either for money or a prospect?

 

The Yankees of 2009, they had guys they traded for.

Philly in 2008

2012 Giants had some guys they traded for....

The Red Sox had guys they traded for

 

As a matter of fact, I find it hard to find a team that did not use FA and trades to get WS championships......

 

You're changing your argument. Please list the players. If you just cited Cody freakin Ross to defend your argument (the definition of a lucky fluke that really worked out), it would be more intellectually honest to lay it out there.

 

You claimed trades win WS titles - let's see the proof. Here's a hint, we did this back on BYTO a few years ago - you won't find it, but feel free to try.

[Mike Sixel]

I never claimed that, I claimed, and always have, that you need to use all the channels, not just one or two of the channels, to acquire talent.

 

Like, Cliff Lee, or Alex Rodriguez, or Melky Cabrera, or AJ Przzaldknfoneski, or Matt Holiday, or Kyle Lohse or Manny Ramirez....WS winners are peppered with guys those teams did not draft.

 

Look at TX, with Darvish and Nathan and AJ.....

 

I don't usually make extreme arguments, I do make one.....you are less likely to win if you ignore FA and trades.

[Mike Sixel]

Jack Morris, Don Baylor.....

[nicksaviking]

A number of those options are based off how the team has performed recently. Not far in the past, fans of those clubs were calling for their GMs to be fired. Sabean (2005-2008), Dombrowski (2005, 2008) in specific. It wasn't too long ago that the Twins were the model franchise and receiving praise from the front office on down.

 

Ding ding ding. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

 

Ask Giants fans what they thought of Sabean from 2005-2008.

 

Or Tigers fans what they thought of Dombrowski in the early 2000s.

 

Or As fans what they thought of Beane in the late 2000s.

 

This argument is based on survivorship... Basically, the examination of success stories only at the time they are succeeding.

 

Four years ago, the Twins would have been included on that list? Why? Because they were winning. That list is not constructed by philosophy, attitude, or any other metric not called "winning".

 

Which is the wrong way to compile a list. Because winning is fleeting for anyone with tenure and a GM you would have considered good at his job three years ago is now bumped off that list because his team stopped winning. Or, in the case of Brian Sabean, that GM was the laughing stock of much of baseball after the Pierzynski trade, had a handful of losing seasons, was considered a failure, and now is on that list due to recent success. Was he an awful GM in 2004 and is now a great one? Unlikely.

 

I can't disagree but the difference has been that those GM's have kept their jobs and succeeded because they adapted or instigated the changing landscape of baseball. Terry Ryan is still as stubbornly conservative as ever and seems aghast that anyone would imply the game has evolved.

 

He refuses to recognize the value of pitchers, and he refuses to recognize the best attributes for pitchers in today's baseball involve missing bats. He stubbornly fields what is reported to be an extremely bare-bones statistical team and relies on what seems like a large scouting department. You can have both strong scouting and strong analytics, you don't have to choose one or the other. His roster management is suspect in terms of who gets promoted/demoted/DFA'd. Does anyone truely believe that Kyle Gibson would still be in AAA if one of those other GM's was in charge? Not me.

 

If something stops working you need to change your approach. I'll acknowledge I don't know what is going on behind the scenes but it doesn't appear that a lot is changing. It often seems like they are just gearing up to take the same old approach. Baseball today is different than baseball 10 years ago, you need to adjust.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't usually make extreme arguments, I do make one.....you are less likely to win if you ignore FA and trades.

 

We were talking trades, not FA. The bulk of your examples are FA.

[Mike Sixel]

Great, then let's see Ryan sign FAs......I don't think I made any claims in this thread, other than McPhail went for it, and Ryan did not ......

 

I don't care, as long as they do try acquire legit MLB players, not only cheap, not good players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can't disagree but the difference has been that those GM's have kept their jobs and succeeded because they adapted or instigated the changing landscape of baseball. Terry Ryan is still as stubbornly conservative as ever and seems aghast that anyone would imply the game has evolved.

 

He refuses to recognize the value of pitchers, and he refuses to recognize the best attributes for pitchers in today's baseball involve missing bats. He stubbornly fields what is reported to be an extremely bare-bones statistical team and relies on what seems like a large scouting department. You can have both strong scouting and strong analytics, you don't have to choose one or the other. His roster management is suspect in terms of who gets promoted/demoted/DFA'd. Does anyone truely believe that Kyle Gibson would still be in AAA if one of those other GM's was in charge? Not me.

 

If something stops working you need to change your approach. I'll acknowledge I don't know what is going on behind the scenes but it doesn't appear that a lot is changing. It often seems like they are just gearing up to take the same old approach. Baseball today is different than baseball 10 years ago, you need to adjust.

 

Has Ryan's approach stopped working? He left a winning team and came back to an awful one that is now improving. In 2-3 years, I think we'll be able to say whether his approach has stopped working.

 

Now, I'm not agreeing with everything the man has done. I hated the free agent pickups this offseason. I don't like the fact that Gibson isn't on the roster right now. There are plenty of things I don't like about this team right now and there are plenty of things I don't understand.

 

But I'm not going to confuse "lack of information" with "that person has no game plan". It's a bit presumptuous.

[Mike Sixel]

To be fair, the team is bad because there are no good, young players on this roster....when would those players have been acquired?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Great, then let's see Ryan sign FAs......I don't think I made any claims in this thread, other than McPhail went for it, and Ryan did not ......

 

I don't care, as long as they do try acquire legit MLB players, not only cheap, not good players.

 

I think you'll be hard-pressed to find a "Terry Ryan 2012 Free Agents Fan Club" section of this forum.

 

I give Ryan a pass in his last tenure because he had no money. I'm willing to hold my nose and disagree with him over the last offseason.

 

But at some point, he's going to have to spend money or fans will be in open revolt. I think we can all agree on that much.

[jay]

I can't disagree but the difference has been that those GM's have kept their jobs and succeeded because they adapted or instigated the changing landscape of baseball. Terry Ryan is still as stubbornly conservative as ever and seems aghast that anyone would imply the game has evolved.

 

He refuses to recognize the value of pitchers, and he refuses to recognize the best attributes for pitchers in today's baseball involve missing bats. He stubbornly fields what is reported to be an extremely bare-bones statistical team and relies on what seems like a large scouting department. You can have both strong scouting and strong analytics, you don't have to choose one or the other. His roster management is suspect in terms of who gets promoted/demoted/DFA'd. Does anyone truely believe that Kyle Gibson would still be in AAA if one of those other GM's was in charge? Not me.

 

If something stops working you need to change your approach. I'll acknowledge I don't know what is going on behind the scenes but it doesn't appear that a lot is changing. It often seems like they are just gearing up to take the same old approach. Baseball today is different than baseball 10 years ago, you need to adjust.

 

 

While I would much rather prefer a GM that is known to be well versed in the statistical revolution, Terry Ryan has seen success in the past and took over in a down cycle. I guess I'd tend to give him a little more time to turn things around and, as you acknowledged, we don't truly know how it works behind the scenes.

 

I think you're make some big jumps and assumptions in your conclusion. A rapidly developing farm system would seem to be one indicator that either something is changing or, at the least, working.

[TheLeviathan]

Great, then let's see Ryan sign FAs......I don't think I made any claims in this thread, other than McPhail went for it, and Ryan did not ......

 

I don't care, as long as they do try acquire legit MLB players, not only cheap, not good players.

 

Go back and look at what I quoted. That may help see where you got off track.

 

I don't disagree about using all routes to make your team better, I disagree with your factually inaccurate claim I quoted earlier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

To be fair, the team is bad because there are no good, young players on this roster....when would those players have been acquired?

 

During his tenure, for sure. His last few drafts were pretty bad.

 

That also tends to happen when you pick in the bottom ten nearly every season for 5-6 years.

 

The real question is whether Ryan would have adjusted his approach had he stayed as GM. And we'll never know for sure because he left the position.

 

But now that he's back, it's pretty hard to complain about his drafts thus far. They've been pretty bold and different.

[jay]

But at some point, he's going to have to spend money or fans will be in open revolt. I think we can all agree on that much.

 

Very true. It's not likely at all that the upcoming prospects will fill every hole. I'll be interested to see whether the Twins continue with their invest from within and go for contracts with their guys or reach out to the FA market to get some more immediate fixes. Let's hope for a little of both.

[Mike Sixel]

During his tenure, for sure. His last few drafts were pretty bad.

 

That also tends to happen when you pick in the bottom ten nearly every season for 5-6 years.

 

The real question is whether Ryan would have adjusted his approach had he stayed as GM. And we'll never know for sure because he left the position.

 

But now that he's back, it's pretty hard to complain about his drafts thus far. They've been pretty bold and different.

 

The Cardinals seem to be still finding guys in their drafts the last few years.....but yes, it will be harder. BUT, if your strategy is to only build through the draft, you have to be BETTER than everyone else, not just as good as everyone else. That's the issue with this team, they were not good enough at acquiring talent when it was harder. It's not hard (you'd think), to draft 2nd or 4th overall.....any of us could have picked a guy that would be in the top 50.....it's picking 20th and later that a good FO earns its pay.....

[stringer bell]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I'll try to find middle ground here. There has been a giant failure for two years--players let go that should have been kept, players brought in that don't belong in MLB, and I think the Twins acknowledge this. I was OK with putting a few bandages on in 2012 and they mostly worked, at least among the position players (Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll), but the pitching hasn't been addressed satisfactorily from outside the organization. I am not confident that Ryan has bought into the new proposition that values live arms above almost anything else, so much so that guys like Sabathia, Kershaw, Price etc. get huge long-term contracts. Many big contracts fail, but many work out. Ryan has been unwilling to pay what it takes to acquire top-tier (or even middle tier) major league pitching. Eliminating that avenue puts more pressure on developing good pitchers and lately, for whatever reason, the Twins haven't done well there either. As evidenced by the 2012 offseason, I think Ryan can patch the holes in the lineup. The Twins have the resources to get better pitching, without trading any blue chips.

[Mike Sixel]

Go back and look at what I quoted. That may help see where you got off track.

 

I don't disagree about using all routes to make your team better, I disagree with your factually inaccurate claim I quoted earlier.

 

you are right, I did say "what if they had traded Benson when he was a good prospect"....and I stand by that, sometimes it is a good idea to trade prospects for proven players. Sometimes it is not. Maybe even most times it is not.

 

But that's a nit for me.....my point remains consistent, if you refuse to use FA or trades, you better be the best drafting team in baseball, ever. And they weren't. As does my other point, when you are one of the best teams in baseball for years in a row, but you refuse to add players, then you are deserving of some criticism. Others clearly disagree, and since this is just an opinion and not fact, neither side is probably wrong.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cardinals seem to be still finding guys in their drafts the last few years.....but yes, it will be harder. BUT, if your strategy is to only build through the draft, you have to be BETTER than everyone else, not just as good as everyone else. That's the issue with this team, they were not good enough at acquiring talent when it was harder. It's not hard (you'd think), to draft 2nd or 4th overall.....any of us could have picked a guy that would be in the top 50.....it's picking 20th and later that a good FO earns its pay.....

 

Oddly enough, the Twins did rather well in later rounds. It was the first round that killed them, as strange as that seems.

 

Teams have bad runs of drafts. It happens to even the best front offices. We could speculate all day on whether Ryan would have rebounded from those drafts but I just don't see the point. I'd prefer to talk about what he's doing now... and so far, it looks pretty good on the draft front.

[jokin]

A number of those options are based off how the team has performed recently. Not far in the past, fans of those clubs were calling for their GMs to be fired. Sabean (2005-2008), Dombrowski (2005, 2008) in specific. It wasn't too long ago that the Twins were the model franchise and receiving praise from the front office on down.

 

I'm not sure what "praise as a model franchise" should have been deserved for:

 

trying to get yourself contracted out of baseball for profit,

 

going 2-15 in the postseason since 2003 in 5 playoff series,

 

not making any legitimate attempt at improving or changing philosophical approach in direct response to continued negative postseason outcomes since 2002,

 

letting star-value & above-replacement players walk away for nothing or traded away for practically nothing,

 

year-after-year failure at recognizing franchise blind spots in developmental flaws within the organization and demonstrated continued inability to scout, identify and sign prospects and veterans for positions of weakness (especially when they were in unfavorable draft position- Levi Michael, Ben Revere...?),

 

failure to acknowledge and understand that the windows have closed on past market inefficiencies in player worth- and openly mocking proven modern valuation techniques,

 

failure to have in place a legitimate Plan A and Plan B for building a ballpark to match the personnel strengths and putting up the white flags of surrender at the first sign of said failure, while still in the transition phase to the new stadium.

[Brock Beauchamp]

you are right, I did say "what if they had traded Benson when he was a good prospect"....and I stand by that, sometimes it is a good idea to trade prospects for proven players. Sometimes it is not. Maybe even most times it is not.

 

And what if Benson was a good player right now and was manning CF for the Twins?

 

The Twins didn't trade Benson because they needed OF production. Unfortunately, that didn't pan out... for anyone.

 

I agree with your sentiment about trading from prospect strength but I disagree with the Benson example. After all, the Twins picked up three pitchers because Ryan was willing to deal from a point of strength this last offseason.

[TheLeviathan]

you are right, I did say "what if they had traded Benson when he was a good prospect"....and I stand by that, sometimes it is a good idea to trade prospects for proven players. Sometimes it is not. Maybe even most times it is not.

 

Cmon man, this is kind of sad. You claimed trading prospects for veterans wins world series titles. Don't hide behind a throw-away comment about Benson or broaden your point. I am attacking one very specific charge you made.

 

That charge is one repeated by MANY in this fan base and it's just....plain....wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

Oddly enough, the Twins did rather well in later rounds. It was the first round that killed them, as strange as that seems.

 

Teams have bad runs of drafts. It happens to even the best front offices. We could speculate all day on whether Ryan would have rebounded from those drafts but I just don't see the point. I'd prefer to talk about what he's doing now... and so far, it looks pretty good on the draft front.

 

 

I doubt I'd ever bring it up, but for the fact they brought Ryan back. Hopefully he changed his approach in his time off, but this off-season indicates he has not.