Edouard Julien: A Tale of Two Seasons - 2023 vs. 2024

[Cody Christie]

The Twins need to find value at the edges of the roster in the season’s most important games. Can Edouard Julien improve his performance enough to be a viable option in September?

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Edouard Julien's arrival on the MLB stage was marked by an impressive rookie season in 2023, where he became a vital contributor to the Minnesota Twins lineup. Fast forward to 2024, and the young infielder seems to be struggling both offensively and defensively, leaving fans and analysts to wonder which version of Julien is the long-term player the Twins can rely on. To explore this, let's dive into his performances over these two seasons.

2023: A Promising Rookie Campaign
Julien's rookie year in 2023 was a breakout season. He showcased a solid offensive game, combining plate discipline with power, a rarity for a rookie. In 109 games, he posted a 130 OPS+ while getting on base over 38% of the time. His Barrel %, Hard Hit %, and xwOBA ranked in the 70th percentile or higher, and his Chase % was in the 100th percentile. That offensive approach made him valuable for a Twins team needing production in the infield. 

These numbers illustrate Julien's ability to get on base and contribute runs. His approach at the plate was mature beyond his years, characterized by patience and the ability to draw walks. His .381 OBP was among the best for rookies, and his power numbers indicated a player with the potential to develop into a consistent middle-of-the-order threat. Defensively, Julien played primarily at second base and showed promise, although he had some growing pains common for young infielders.

2024: A Sophomore Slump
In contrast, the 2024 season has been a challenge for Julien. His offensive production has taken a noticeable dip, and his defensive struggles have become more pronounced. His OPS+ has dropped by over 40 points, and pitchers have shown a propensity to attack him with strikes without fear of him making hard contact. 

The drop in his batting average and OBP is significant, indicating that Julien's ability to reach base has diminished. His power numbers have also declined, with fewer home runs and extra-base hits. The decrease in walk rate suggests that pitchers have adjusted to Julien's approach, and he has yet to find a consistent way to counter these adjustments.

Defensively, Julien's issues have been more evident. His costly throwing miscue is at the top of everyone’s mind, but there are concerns about his long-term viability as an everyday second baseman. These defensive struggles have occasionally led to him being benched or used in a designated hitter role, limiting his impact on the field.

Which Julien is the Long-Term Outcome?
The question remains: Which version of Edouard Julien will the Twins see in the long term? The answer lies between the extremes of his rookie success and his sophomore struggles.

1. Adjustment Period: It is not uncommon for players to experience a sophomore slump. After a strong rookie year, opposing teams often adjust their strategies, exposing weaknesses to which the player must adapt. Julien's 2024 performance may be a part of this natural adjustment process.

2. Plate Discipline: One of Julien's strengths in 2023 was his eye for the strike zone, leading to a high walk rate. While this has decreased in 2024, his still maintaining a decent walk rate suggests that he retains some of that patience. Refining his approach and making adjustments could help Julien regain his offensive form.

3. Defensive Development: Defense is often a late-blooming skill for many players, especially those who focus primarily on their offensive game. Julien's defensive struggles may improve with experience, better positioning, and continued work with the Twins' coaching staff.

4. Mental and Physical Fatigue: It's also possible that mental and physical fatigue is affecting Julien's performance in 2024. The grind of a long MLB season can be harsh on young players, especially those still adjusting to the league's demands.

Julien's 2023 season showed his potential as a critical piece in the Twins' future. His 2024 struggles are a reminder of the challenges young players face in establishing consistency at the major league level. While it is too early to make definitive conclusions about which version of Julien is the long-term solution, his talent and approach suggest he has the tools to overcome his current struggles. Patience from both Julien and the Twins organization, along with targeted adjustments, will be crucial in determining his long-term success.

The Twins have a vested interest in Julien's development, and given his flashes of brilliance, he is likely to get every opportunity to prove that his rookie season was not a fluke. The long-term version of Edouard Julien is still taking shape, but if he can blend his rookie promise with lessons learned from his sophomore slump, he could become a mainstay in the Twins' lineup for years to come.

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Which version of Julien is his actual outcome? Can he find a way to provide value to the Twins this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[DJL44]

I think his eye at the plate is his best asset. He's walking less often because pitchers are able to attack him in the zone more effectively. His hitting has improved with work in the minors. He has a 702 OPS since his callup which is way better than he was hitting when he left in July. I think he can maintain that performance through the rest of the season.

Defense is not a "late blooming" skill. It is heavily linked to athleticism and tends to decline earlier than hitting does. Hitting peaks ages 27-30 but defense peaks ages 25-28. Juliens' athleticism is below average for an up the middle player in MLB. At best he will be adequate at 2B.

It is likely he won't really help or hurt the team.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO Julien is better than last season. The difference in his offense is the league has the book on his weakness but he is striking out less. Julien's ability to turn DPs has never been that great but he's getting to balls that he didn't before but has difficulty coming up with the play. I think the greatest difference is his confidence which affects all aspects of his game.

[insagt1]

I have a bigger concern right now for Lewis. His play has deteriorated rather substantially. His power stroke has been replaced by more k's and weaker AB's when he does connect.

So--is he hurt? Or something else?

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

 

So--is he hurt? Or something else?

Yes.

[stringer bell]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Julien is better than last season. The difference in his offense is the league has the book on his weakness but he is striking out less. Julien's ability to turn DPs has never been that great but he's getting to balls that he didn't before but has difficulty coming up with the play. I think the greatest difference is his confidence which affects all aspects of his game.

No, he's not better when his OPS goes from .839 to .670.  Since the month of April, Julien just hasn't been very good at hitting. He improved to acceptable as a fielder last year and has made some strides on defense, but he's got to hit better to be a contributor.

[tony&rodney]

Julien has not really been used as a DH this year that I recall. The promise of Julien being a stalwart in the lineup because of his 2023 regular season and postseason accomplishments raised the bar for him. Thus far he has not nearly met expectations.

Perception is a big factor for many fans in how they view Julien. The two players most commonly linked to Julien are Lee and Farmer. Neither has done anything to elevate themsleves above Julien. Now that doesn't make Julien a very appealing player but if Castro must play shortstop someone has to play the keystone. Many on Twins Daily have strong favorites and rather intense, even irrational, dislikes of various players and Julien seems to draw the short straw. Hopefully Correa returns and Castro can slide over to second to eliminate a discussion of who is worst among bad choices. Until then, Julien provides the most upside, but he sure better get it together. I agree with those who feel that it looks like Julien has lost some confidence.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

No, he's not better when his OPS goes from .839 to .670.  Since the month of April, Julien just hasn't been very good at hitting. He improved to acceptable as a fielder last year and has made some strides on defense, but he's got to hit better to be a contributor.

Like I explained before he's the same as before except the pitchers has the book on him that affected his OPS. BA etc. He has adjusted for the better because his SOs are better. Stats don't tell the whole story. If pitchers ignore the book he'd have great numbers, he hasn't gotten worse he basically has the same weakness but is better at it.

[Guest]

Julien's regressed principally because he can't close an obvious hole in his swing pitchers discovered this year.  Julien's been awful offensively from the jump.  It's not a soph slump, but a serious deficiency that Eddie can't seem to fix despite it being glaringly obvious on every iPad in the dugout.  And Julien hasn't been able to compartmentalize his offense issues and capitalize on his defensive improvements.  Julien just needs a very, very big reset and the Twins can't afford to wait for him to do that at the MLB level.  And if Julien doesn't evidence some improvement fast, he's going to be replaced on the 40-man by The 5-5 Legend of St. Paul.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Julien's regressed principally because he can't close an obvious hole in his swing pitchers discovered this year.  Julien's been awful offensively from the jump.  It's not a soph slump, but a serious deficiency that Eddie can't seem to fix despite it being glaringly obvious on every iPad in the dugout.  And Julien hasn't been able to compartmentalize his offense issues and capitalize on his defensive improvements.  Julien just needs a very, very big reset and the Twins can't afford to wait for him to do that at the MLB level.  And if Julien doesn't evidence some improvement fast, he's going to be replaced on the 40-man by The 5-5 Legend of St. Paul.

I think you're right about him taking his hitting problems out on the field. I have been saying for a while he needs to either go to winter ball and learn 1st base skills, or start in the minors next year and learn there. I think the Twins will try to keep Santana for another year so he could have plenty of innings at 1st in St,Paul and he could work on his hitting there. IMO there's still a good hitter in there, he just has to learn to unlock that. Lower pressure there instead of on the 26 man. I don't see the Twins giving up on him anytime soon.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I suspect Julien will not be a factor in September because he won't be in Minneapolis. The Twins can add one player and one pitcher tomorrow. Lee is likely to be the position player; Winder probably the pitcher. Then next week(?) Buxton comes back. Who do you keep and who do you send to St. Paul ineligible to come back for 10 days  - Julien or Martin? I think Martin since he can play a passable 2B as well as the OF, and runs better so is a better pinch running option. Martin hits RH and Julien can't hit LH pitching. Lee takes over either SS or 2B with Martin available to play 2B.     

I do think Julien is part of the long term future, though. He will work through the hitting woes, you can already see the adjustments and improvements there. Will he be a .270/.380/.420 or more guy or a .240/.320/.380 or less guy? Hard to say but the chance he will be the first guy is at least 35-40% IMO so you have to ride him for a least another season. Much like Martin needs to find a winter ball team where he can play CF every day, Julien needs to find a place to play 1B every day so he can be a 2B/1B next year with Miranda playing the every day 1B role. If you look at who we have in 2025 once the soon to be FAs go (Margot, Kepler, Santana, Farmer) and Buxton and Correa come back, there are spots for Martin, Lee,  and 2 more guys. Julien should be one of those 2 guys along with a good bat RH hitting OF.  

[LambchoP]

Sophomore slumps can be pretty common. Julien just needs to find a way to adjust to the adjustments pitchers made to him this year. Next year will be the real tell to me. If he can figure it out, he'll have a roster spot on the team, maybe as a 2nd base platoon type roll. Another season like this, they may look to move on from him. We do have Lee, Eeles and a few other IF coming up through the system. I'm more worried about his defense though. Any strides he made last year seem to have completely disappeared. Maybe he's taking his at bats out into the field with him. Either way, he needs to clean up his defense big time or his leash will be that much shorter. I personally like Lee at 2nd. Correa at SS and Lewis at 3rd. Need to find an everyday spot for Miranda though. So maybe Miranda at 3rd and Lewis at 1st base if we don't sign anyone. I think we need a long-term answer at first.

[Fatbat]

Julien will either fix the hole in his swing or he won’t.  His defense will take years to correct.

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

His defense will take years to correct.

How do you correct hard hands, slow feet (30th percentile sprint speed) and a weak arm (22nd percentile)? He's not going to be an above average defender at 2B. He's doing pretty well considering the disadvantage he has athletically compared to the converted shortstops he's competing against.

[Fatbat]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

How do you correct hard hands, slow feet (30th percentile sprint speed) and a weak arm (22nd percentile)? He's not going to be an above average defender at 2B. He's doing pretty well considering the disadvantage he has athletically compared to the converted shortstops he's competing against.

Switch defensive positions 

[Prince Phillip]

Julien can hit, and has hit well since being recalled. He should be in the Twins long term plans, but I don’t expect big contributions from him in October. He will continue to develop and improve, especially on defense.  Carew wasn’t good in the field at the start either, but like Julien, the bat was too good to pass on. Not saying Julien will be HOF, but he can be a solid mlb second baseman.