Are the Twins Finally Buckling Under the Weight of Their Challenges?

[Larry Janisewski]

21 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with KirbyDome89 in one crucial way - the Twins are not any more snake bitten than anyone else. You only have to look at our current opponent. Atlanta has lost more talent to injury than we have but is playing better. The Orioles lost 3 starters, the Yankees were without Cole for several weeks and have had good players have poor years, the Guardians lost their #1 starter for the entire season, the Dodgers have basically lost their entire starting rotation and Mookie Betts for several weeks, the Brewers lost Yelich (their best player) to season ending surgery, etc.

Let's not play the "victim card" here; the Twins have not had more bad injury luck than anybody else. We just don't have the MLB ready depth that other contending teams do and weren't willing to sacrifice prospects to build it short term. It's a defensible strategy if you're playing more for the next few years than this year, long term over short term, but it means this unchecked and perhaps uncheckable slide is always a real possibility. We'll be lucky to slide into the playoffs this year but it will give a bunch of guys some crucial MLB experience. Which is better depends on your outlook.   

You are 100% correct about the Twins not being the only team suffering injury losses. The Brewers, for example, lost their 2 best starters before the season started (Corbin Burnes to Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff to season ending surgery). The best closer in the NL, Devin Williams, wasn't able to pitch until the end of July following surgery during spring training, and they have lost their most valuable player in Christian Yelich about a month ago to season ending surgery. Oh yeah, and they have a 1st year manager. Most non-Brewer fans would be hard pressed to name a single Brewer player. And they lead their division by 9 games and are 20 games over .500.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I have been down on this team all year.  I have said time and time again that their record was mainly due to them beating up on the 5 worst teams in the league and playing sub-.500 against everyone else.  This team has been smoke-and-mirrors all year.

That being said:

You can question Rocco all you want, but with every bad thing thrown at the Twins this year, if they make the playoffs, you can easily make the argument that he is the AL Manager of the Year.  

[S Bart]

I have tickets to the Twins/Red Sox games next month. It is feasible that this could determine the last playoff spot. My fingers are crossed that the Twins will lock up a spot during the KC/Clev. games.

The Fenway visitor's bullpen has to be the most challenging location in the game. The bleacher fans harass the pitchers during warm up.

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

KC and the Twins followed used some similar tactics.  The Twins spent their FA / extension money on Correa / Buston and Lopez.  The Royals spent their money on Perez / Lugo and Wacha.  Perez is playing great while Buxton and Correa are on the IL.  Lugo has been better the Lopez.  Wacha has been about the same.  Both teams landed an important part of their rotation by trading away players at the deadline.  

If we look at KC, I would conclude they have gotten more out of modest priced free agents.  They have stayed healthy, and they got one hell of a gift when they traded a rental for Reagans.  BTW … Lugo and Wacha were not at the top of the list here at TD.

Cleveland is getting absolutely zero contributions for free agents or proven players acquired by trade.  37% of their WAR is from drafted players.  22% from International drafted players.  41% from players acquired as prospects and they don’t have any free agents.  So, how does one look at Cleveland and their 107M payroll and a roster with no free agents and conclude the reason the Guardians are ahead in the standings is the Twins cut spending?

One huge item, from my perspective, that you do not touch on is that KC has a true superstar as does Cleveland. No Twins is even close to as good as either of those players. 

All of the teams do their best to put a competitive team on the field and money cannot be an excuse in the AL Central.

Still expect the Twins to win due to better depth but Correa, Buxton, and Lewis need to play and be effective. I have no illusions of any of them being in a conversation with Ramirez or Junior but the team needs them to play.

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

One huge item, from my perspective, that you do not touch on is that KC has a true superstar as does Cleveland. No Twins is even close to as good as either of those players. 

All of the teams do their best to put a competitive team on the field and money cannot be an excuse in the AL Central.

Still expect the Twins to win due to better depth but Correa, Buxton, and Lewis need to play and be effective. I have no illusions of any of them being in a conversation with Ramirez or Junior but the team needs them to play.

Very true but I was addressing the very firmly held assumption by some that the reason the Twins won’t catch Cleveland is because of spending.  Cleveland is spending less and KC the same so that position is misguided.  

Why isn’t anyone asking how these teams were constructed?  Did KC and Cleveland sign their superstars as free agents.  Did they trade prospects for them?  They drafted and extended them.  That said, the Angels (Traut and Ohtani)  are proof that having a superstar or even two is of no value without a team around them.  

What we should be asking is how successful teams with similar or less revenue accumulated enough talent to be legit contenders.  What percentage of their high contributing players were drafted or acquired as prospects vs free agency or trading for established players?   There is not one person among those insisting the answer is spending that has shown these acquisition methods are prominent strategies among teams in the bottom half of revenue.  The first clue should be that Cleveland does not have a single free agent contributing to their team nor do they have a player that was acquired as an established player.  
 

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

One huge item, from my perspective, that you do not touch on is that KC has a true superstar as does Cleveland. No Twins is even close to as good as either of those players. 

All of the teams do their best to put a competitive team on the field and money cannot be an excuse in the AL Central.

Still expect the Twins to win due to better depth but Correa, Buxton, and Lewis need to play and be effective. I have no illusions of any of them being in a conversation with Ramirez or Junior but the team needs them to play.

I'm not really arguing your point... perhaps just muddying it up a little. 

I'd say Royce Lewis belongs in that superstar. Health hasn't cooperated and in my opinion... health is the thing that has kept him out of that group... but I believe he belongs in that group. I'm not saying who I think is better amongst those three... I'm saying Royce belongs in that conversation. Health is why he isn't but if on the field... I got him in the conversation.  

You point out the health issue on the superstar level. Our biggest issue is that Willi Castro, Carlos Santana and Max Kepler lead the team in AB's. They have been average players to slightly above average players. The stats they are producing isn't lead the team in AB stats. In Cleveland and Kansas City... Ramirez and Witt lead the team in AB's. 

The Twins have done a decent job covering for our significant losses with a better lineup 1 through 10 as you point out. You'll notice the 1 through 10 (not 13) as I'm tossing Margot, Farmer and Vazquez overboard. 😉

As a team, the one offensive thing that Kansas City is doing better than Minnesota is hitting with runners in scoring position. Kansas City leads baseball with a .294 BA with runners in scoring position... 2nd in MLB with a .831 OPS. The Twins are hitting .245 with runners in scoring position good for 21st. 18th with .741 OPS. 

Kansas City is 30th in K's with runners in scoring position (Therefore Best). Cleveland is 28th. Twins are 13th which is better than last year but... we haven't been as clutch despite what I believe a deeper team.   

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I'd say Royce Lewis belongs in that superstar. Health hasn't cooperated and in my opinion... health is the thing that has kept him out of that group... but I believe he belongs in that group. I'm not saying who I think is better amongst those three... I'm saying Royce belongs in that conversation. Health is why he isn't but if on the field... I got him in the conversation.

495 vs 1922 is the career comparison for PA (RL-JR.). I love watching Royce Lewis but he can never reach the status of an Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, or Bobby Witt Jr. Lewis is a year older than Junior and cannot do anything as well as the KC shortstop. Superstar is a separate category earned through consistent production year over year. Star potential is an entirely different matter, where young inexperienced players with talent or prospects are discussed. Lewis is still in that category. I often mention that it is somewhat unfair to compare emerging players to the real stars. We would like Royce to settle into being a productive player whose name is in the lineup every day, hopefully playing in the field as opposed to being a 25 year old DH. We know injuries happen (Buxton, Correa) and can see that even the best (Trout) can have their run of excellence thwarted by injuries. Lewis has never been in the conversation as a top player in baseball. He did garner huge love with his grand slams last season and two home runs in the playoffs. Royce can be good and still has potential. I need to see a minimum of 500 PA in several consecutive seasons (which still falls well short of what we see from Junior, Shohei, and Soto every year) before I consider any reason to put Lewis in a higher category than MLB player. I just hope the pressure of  expectations are not a hindrance to Lewis but Royce has a good head and that doesn't seem like it should be a problem for him. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

495 vs 1922 is the career comparison for PA (RL-JR.). I love watching Royce Lewis but he can never reach the status of an Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, or Bobby Witt Jr. Lewis is a year older than Junior and cannot do anything as well as the KC shortstop. Superstar is a separate category earned through consistent production year over year. Star potential is an entirely different matter, where young inexperienced players with talent or prospects are discussed. Lewis is still in that category. I often mention that it is somewhat unfair to compare emerging players to the real stars. We would like Royce to settle into being a productive player whose name is in the lineup every day, hopefully playing in the field as opposed to being a 25 year old DH. We know injuries happen (Buxton, Correa) and can see that even the best (Trout) can have their run of excellence thwarted by injuries. Lewis has never been in the conversation as a top player in baseball. He did garner huge love with his grand slams last season and two home runs in the playoffs. Royce can be good and still has potential. I need to see a minimum of 500 PA in several consecutive seasons (which still falls well short of what we see from Junior, Shohei, and Soto every year) before I consider any reason to put Lewis in a higher category than MLB player. I just hope the pressure of  expectations are not a hindrance to Lewis but Royce has a good head and that doesn't seem like it should be a problem for him. 

Not really arguing what you are saying. I do understand what you are saying. 

I have no way of proving what I think because Royce has been horrible at the health thing and he would ultimately be my proof if healthy... which he consistently hasn't been so all I got his what I think.  

I Just believe in my heart... that Royce when ON THE FIELD and in the lineup. Belongs in the conversation. 

But, I understand the importance of increasing his sample to a punctuation mark on my what I think.  

[Beast]

This is just who they are.

It’s not surprising that Buxton, Correa, and Ryan couldn’t put together a full season.  That’s a given.

They’ve been bolstered by unsustainable performances for much longer than they should’ve been.

Royce Lewis wasn’t going to continue to hit .300 with a home run rate equivalent to Judge.

Miranda wasn’t going to continue to hit .350.

Ober wasn’t going to continue to pitch at a Cy Young level.

Vasquez wasn’t going to continue to win you games with clutch hits.

Willie Castro wasn’t going to continue to produce like an All Star offensively.

The bullpen was a powder keg waiting to blow from day 1.

Theyre extremely fortunate to be where they are, given the roster construction.  It’s just not that good of a team, and it’s finally caught up with them as it should have a long time ago.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

This is just who they are.

It’s not surprising that Buxton, Correa, and Ryan couldn’t put together a full season.  That’s a given.

They’ve been bolstered by unsustainable performances for much longer than they should’ve been.

Royce Lewis wasn’t going to continue to hit .300 with a home run rate equivalent to Judge.

Miranda wasn’t going to continue to hit .350.

Ober wasn’t going to continue to pitch at a Cy Young level.

Vasquez wasn’t going to continue to win you games with clutch hits.

Willie Castro wasn’t going to continue to produce like an All Star offensively.

The bullpen was a powder keg waiting to blow from day 1.

Theyre extremely fortunate to be where they are, given the roster construction.  It’s just not that good of a team, and it’s finally caught up with them as it should have a long time ago.

And yet, with all the above, the Twins are still a fair bet to be in the playoffs and even win the division. The Twins are not done. I'm not wishing for bad luck and knocking on wood.