Let's Get Specific About a Willi Castro Contract Extension

[Cap'n Piranha]

With the payroll limitations the Twins will have to endure for the next 3 seasons, money should only be going to actual October difference makers--that is not Willi Castro, barring the reality that theoretically any player can get hot for 15 games in October.

Willi Castro will turn 28 less than a month into next season, meaning that any years you extend him for will be post-prime.  With Correa locked in at SS, and Lewis/Miranda/Julien/Lee/Keaschall all younger and less expensive in the IF, and Wallner/Larnach/Emma/Jenkins all younger and less expensive in the OF, Castro is a luxury, not a necessity.

If the Twins are going to actually extend one of their arb candidates, I would put Lewis/Ryan/Ober/Duran/Jax well ahead of Castro on the priority list, and probably throw Miranda and Alcala on there as well.

[Doctor Gast]

Dobnak's extension was good. The problem is that the Twins wrecked him by forcing him to be something he wasn't. If they had left him alone, that contract would have been reasonable.

[bean5302]

55 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Utility players do not command a premium in free agency. Bogaerts and Marcus Semien got $25M a season. Bregman got $20M. Chris Taylor gets $15M. I think $12-$15M is top-end of the market for Willi Castro.

Just because you want to label him as a utility player does not mean a signing team would view him or use him as a "utility player." The same way players are signed and moved around depending on a team's need.

Mookie Betts probably qualifies as a "utility player" as you describe the term. He's played a mix of CF/2B/SS over the past few years for the Dodgers. He's making pretty good money at 12 years and $365MM.

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Dobnak's extension was good. The problem is that the Twins wrecked him by forcing him to be something he wasn't. If they had left him alone, that contract would have been reasonable.

Dobnak had a tendon in his finger rupture with permanent damage. That's the problem. Unless the Twins held his hand down and smashed it with a hammer like some scene out of a mafia movie, I don't see the injury as the Twins' fault. Minnesota extended Dobnak quickly and early using their leverage against his limited finances to lock him up to what looked like an incredibly team friendly deal. They clearly valued the pitcher he was.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Dobnak's extension was good. The problem is that the Twins wrecked him by forcing him to be something he wasn't. If they had left him alone, that contract would have been reasonable.

For that tiny money, it is still reasonable.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Mookie Betts probably qualifies as a "utility player" as you describe the term. He's played a mix of CF/2B/SS over the past few years for the Dodgers. He's making pretty good money at 12 years and $365MM.

You're really going with Mookie Betts as a reasonable comp for Willi Castro?

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Extend him and Lewis? Where is this money coming from? 

I'd 100% extend this guy, though. Productive, healthy, super utility. Great asset. 

The Twins should absolutely give team-friendly extensions to their arbitration eligible players. If they want to maintain a $120M payroll they should absolutely trade the final seasons of those contracts for prospects. Arbitration buyout contracts are net assets, not liabilities.

The weird contract is Correa. I don't understand why they gave Correa $36M if they want to run a $120M payroll.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

The Twins should absolutely give team-friendly extensions to their arbitration eligible players. If they want to maintain a $120M payroll they should absolutely trade the final seasons of those contracts for prospects. Arbitration buyout contracts are net assets, not liabilities.

The weird contract is Correa. I don't understand why they gave Correa $36M if they want to run a $120M payroll.

That would be Ryan, Ober, Jeffers, Lewis....on top of Lopez, CC, Buxton? No chance. Plus they need a FA catcher with near certainty. Oh, and the guy this thread is about.

That would tie all the money up in like 4-6 players. Can't do that here.

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You're really going with Mookie Betts as a reasonable comp for Willi Castro?

You said utility players don't get paid. Mookie Betts is a utility player. He's getting paid. He's not a comp for Castro, and my prediction of 5-6yrs at $100MM+ make it pretty clear he's not in even remotely the same league.

I expect a team will sign Castro with the plan to make him their every day SS.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I expect a team will sign Castro with the plan to make him their every day SS.

Good luck to that team.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

That would be Ryan, Ober, Jeffers, Lewis....on top of Lopez, CC, Buxton? No chance. Plus they need a FA catcher with near certainty. Oh, and the guy this thread is about.

That would tie all the money up in like 4-6 players. Can't do that here.

The alternative is trading all of those players earlier because you didn't buy out any free agent years. It makes your competitive window smaller and doesn't save you any money.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Dobnak had a tendon in his finger rupture with permanent damage. That's the problem. Unless the Twins held his hand down and smashed it with a hammer like some scene out of a mafia movie, I don't see the injury as the Twins' fault. Minnesota extended Dobnak quickly and early using their leverage against his limited finances to lock him up to what looked like an incredibly team friendly deal. They clearly valued the pitcher he was.

That's what I meant by the Twins wrecking Dobnak. Dobnak just started spring training experimenting with a new slider using it sparingly yet he had very good success with it. The Twins salivated over Dobnak's new slider, offered Donak a nice extension & envisioned Dobnak to set the league on fire with a new new slider-heavy pitching plan. Of course, Dobnak took the offer & was obligated to adopt the new plan. The quick overuse caused Dobnak to lose control & command of that pitch & permanent damage to the tendon of that finger.

Before spring training with all the Happ & Shoemaker hype, Dobnak was not considered to make the rotation much less offered an extension.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

That's what I meant by the Twins wrecking Dobnak. Dobnak just started spring training experimenting with a new slider using it sparingly yet he had very good success with it. The Twins salivated over Dobnak's new slider, offered Donak a nice extension & envisioned Dobnak to set the league on fire with a new new slider-heavy pitching plan. Of course, Dobnak took the offer & was obligated to adopt the new plan. The quick overuse caused Dobnak to lose control & command of that pitch & permanent damage to the tendon of that finger.

Before spring training with all the Happ & Shoemaker hype, Dobnak was not considered to make the rotation much less offered an extension.

"With the stuff that he has and the ability to turn the ball over, sink the ball but also command his pitches very well, he's shown great feel for his offspeed stuff, his slider is ever-improving, and we consider it a weapon," Baldelli said. "And in a day where there's a lot of pitchers that pitch in a very similar fashion and the velos are through the roof and guys that have tremendous carry are all over the place everywhere you look, Randy does something different."
https://www.mlb.com/news/randy-dobnak-twins-extension

Aside from the direct quotes from Baldelli talking about how the Twins valued what Dobnak was already doing, arguing the Twins had the ability to force Dobnak into doing something after they signed him to a fully guaranteed contract is generally seen as the exact opposite of the balance of power. Dobnak threw fewer sliders in 2021 (33%) than he did in 2020 (35%). You seem to have a pretty strong opinion on the subject, but just doesn't seem to be backed up very well by quotes or stats. 

[cmoss84]

Yes.

Give him Christian Vasquez money.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

"With the stuff that he has and the ability to turn the ball over, sink the ball but also command his pitches very well, he's shown great feel for his offspeed stuff, his slider is ever-improving, and we consider it a weapon," Baldelli said. "And in a day where there's a lot of pitchers that pitch in a very similar fashion and the velos are through the roof and guys that have tremendous carry are all over the place everywhere you look, Randy does something different."
https://www.mlb.com/news/randy-dobnak-twins-extension

Aside from the direct quotes from Baldelli talking about how the Twins valued what Dobnak was already doing, arguing the Twins had the ability to force Dobnak into doing something after they signed him to a fully guaranteed contract is generally seen as the exact opposite of the balance of power. Dobnak threw fewer sliders in 2021 (33%) than he did in 2020 (35%). You seem to have a pretty strong opinion on the subject, but just doesn't seem to be backed up very well by quotes or stats. 

Thank you for that link. It brought back memories that Dobnak wasn't even supposed to make the active roster. The new slider was the determining factor and to show how much faith he had in Dobnak he started out in the pen & used only in mop-up situations.

Here's an interesting article about Dobnak in '21, that I just came across.

https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/6/28/22550237/mlb-minnesota-twins-dobnaks-adjustments-backfired-lower-release-new-slider-run-values-command-homers

You seemed to miss that Dobnak threw 2 different sliders in '21. In '20 he threw only the old slider. You failed to distinguish in '21 between the old & new slider. The old slider caused no concerns but the new slider which he barely started with very little conditioning that causes extreme pressure on the middle finger posed great danger. That's the kicker you missed.

I read a wise saying currently that I believe is true "Stats will say anything you want if you torture it enough" 

It's tiring to give stats when the ones who clamor for them, ignore them.

[Boswell]

How does Castro compare to Polanco?  Twins received a great deal when Jorge signed his extension.  Solid production and leadership, then trade value later. 
 

Willi has cooled off since the break, but stayed healthy.  Still on pace for all 162 games?
 

Just do it. 

[1985Fan]

Twins are in a new payroll world now as many have pointed out. No way can you extend Castro AND their core players. Reality is Castro is not a core player and he will HAVE to be replaced. They are now operating in low revenue mode that trades value and replaces them with young, pre-arb players. 
Unless/until MLB corrects their national TV revenue problems and revenue sharing, the Twins are going to be forced to operate at the bottom of the league payroll levels.
The RSN model failed and that money is not being replaced. MLB current operating model is a house of cards without a national TV contract similar to NBA or NFL. With attendance down and no replacement for RSN revenue on the horizon, expecting the payroll to expand is an unrealistic dream. Keep in mind that baseball teams have huge expenses with their minor league teams, their minor league development complex, the Dominican academy, etc. NFL and NBA don’t have those expenses, they get all that for free from colleges!