3 Factors That Worked Against the Twins at the Trade Deadline (Other Than Money)

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Totally get you, but nothing short-sighted, stupid, or irrational surprises me in baseball.  I mean...you've seen the leaked trade talks from the Astros scandal right?  It defies explanation.

The Twins should have done more this offseason and done more not to put themselves in this situation.  It's also possible that other teams do things that make absolutely no sense.  After all...ours certainly does.

Well... Good News on the Horizon I assume.

Falvey has publicly stated that money wasn't the issue this trade deadline. Well... if money isn't an issue... we should be good to go this off-season. 

I fully expect ownership to be fully supportive when we splash some cash to pick up Mark Canha to replace Margot and Wilmer Flores to replace Farmer. 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If I had the EQUIVALENT package offered from a team in my division as from outside I'd take the one from my in-division rival.

I'm not concerned with the player I'm trading away, but I'd certainly prefer to take the prospects out of my rival's system than from someone who's future success or failure doesn't  impact me as much. 

Logic perfectly applied. 

If this was Chess... You are seeing the whole board. 

 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

 

If this was Chess... You are seeing the whole board. 

 

 Been a long time since anyone referred to me as a rook.

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

If Kepler is gone, they have no heir apparent, no Plan B.

If this was chess... you are seeing the whole board. 

[TheLeviathan]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Well... Good News on the Horizon I assume.

Falvey has publicly stated that money wasn't the issue this trade deadline. Well... if money isn't an issue... we should be good to go this off-season. 

I fully expect ownership to be fully supportive when we splash some cash to pick up Mark Canha to replace Margot and Wilmer Flores to replace Farmer. 

I won't hold my breath!

To be clear, my argument that the division rivals were being dinks in no way absolves ownership.  They have had the FO setup to fail since November.

Poor Falvey has to try and trade without adding salary and some snickering fool in Detroit thinks Jenkins is a fair trade ask.  Then he has to slink in front of the media and protect the guys cutting him at the knees.  Ridiculous.

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

 Been a long time since anyone referred to me as a rook.

It fits

1. Your Tender Age obviously.

2. On Twinsdaily you consistently display the ability to plow straight forward for long distances. 

3. You can also go sideways hard in the blink of an eye. 

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I won't hold my breath!

 

Most doctors that I've spoken with are generally in agreement that holding your breath is a bad idea. 

The only time I'd recommend holding your breath is while free diving or entering a porta-potty at WE Fest.  

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If this was chess... you are seeing the whole board. 

If chess is Right Field, Magnus Carlsen would, um, be really good at the game, I bet.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I fully expect ownership to be fully supportive when we splash some cash to pick up Mark Canha to replace Margot and Wilmer Flores to replace Farmer. 

Um. Yay?

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

If chess is Right Field, Magnus Carlsen would, um, be really good at the game, I bet.

Sometimes he stares too long before he moves.

Like Delmon Young. 

[Jocko87]

20 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

No idea about the accuracy of the reports of the divisional trades, but refusing one for a rental player out of fear of what the Twins might do sounds more like something an out-of-his-depth owner would quash rather than a GM who's still got to prove himself.

Circling back to my theory the White Sox just might not be very good at this thing.

Jayson Stark's wrap up piece on the Athletic is very good, and he is very hard on the White Sox on all their deals.  It's well worth a read and seeing the White Sox move laid out together-blech!

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5673477/2024/08/01/what-we-learned-from-this-mlb-trade-deadline-and-the-execs-who-drove-the-market/

I also loved his description of the Cubs as not a buyer or seller but a shopper.  Basically the player store is only open a few times a year so why wouldn't you browse just in case you see something you like.  I think this is probably Falvey as well.  The Cubs just happened to see something they liked.

I can relate, I remember spending hours in the farm store as a kid, just looking at tools and toys and dreaming about when I could get some money.  Then, when I got some money, I made a series of rash spending sprees and accumulated many things.  Some of them were even good things.  Now that I'm more mature (ahem) I'm at HomeDepot and sometimes see interesting things but mostly I walk the aisle and don't see much I don't already have.  I might see something neat that's a bit of a better hammer but its $79 and its not that much better a hammer.  We have dinner at home, you know. 

Come to think of it, I may just have described the Falvine teams growth into their roles.

The next step is that when I see a tool I need (absolutely need, like saves a full weekend tool) I figure out which one is the best one, pay the man and buy (or rent) it.  If that man tells me the price tripled just because he knows I need the tool, I'll tell him to bugger off.  Maybe I'll just hire someone with the tool, there are options.

That's the step we want them to take.  The have all the basics covered.  I don't buy the money problem when so many good tools actually cost less money than what they actually did.  They just need to trade both the extra hammers to get their better hammer.  If they have to spend from the prospect account do it, but only for a clear upgrade.  If they didn't see a clear upgrade, that's an opinion.

It does not sound like the White Sox were a functional seller, like 1.5 stars on Ebay, 10k reviews.

[ashbury]

34 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I can relate, I remember spending hours in the farm store as a kid, just looking at tools and toys and dreaming about when I could get some money.  Then, when I got some money,

At which point, the analogy breaks down.  😀

/ PS, thanks for the link to a paywall, those are always fun

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Sometimes he stares too long before he moves.

Like Delmon Young. 

Prolly a lot of backwards K's at the plate, too, now that you mention it.  I'll stick with Max.  Meanwhile Edouard Julien might want to look into this crazy sport of chess; he might excel.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

At which point, the analogy breaks down.  😀

/ PS, thanks for the link to a paywall, those are always fun

Cept that's when they got a Buck Truck, a Correa and Pablo.  They threw a Vazquez and a Gallo in the cart just cause. They are farther along in the journey than most think. 

We have lots of nice things, major league backups for almost all those things and 6 top 100 prospects just in case.

Let them cook. They gotta sort some stuff.

[ashbury]

28 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Cept that's when they got a Buck Truck, a Correa and Pablo.  They threw a Vazquez and a Gallo in the cart just cause. They are farther along in the journey than most think. 

We have lots of nice things, major league backups for almost all those things and 6 top 100 prospects just in case.

Let them cook. They gotta sort some stuff.

The smiley on my post meant not to take it too seriously as a jumping off point for discussion. 😀

If they wouldn't pay market price for a player or three of actual talent, then they would need to remind me, "why are we even doing this, again?"

I'm not sure I'd include Vazquez and Gallo in a discussion about having nice things, either.  No one else would have tried to snitch either item from their shopping cart, at the price on the sticker.

I play my fair share of the Out of the Park game, and after a few seasons using randomized players my roster and farm system resemble what we desire here, with a lot of Royce Lewises and Brooks Lees and Matt Wallners and Edouard Juliens playing at peak performance (because I can hire superior scouts and talent evaluators) for major league minimum, allowing me to snag the occasional Correa type with my budget.  I'm not sure FalVine or other GMs have access to the cheat codes that one can figure out in a game, though.

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The smiley on my post meant not to take it too seriously as a jumping off point for discussion. 😀

If they wouldn't pay market price for a player or three of actual talent, then they would need to remind me, "why are we even doing this, again?"

I'm not sure I'd include Vazquez and Gallo in a discussion about having nice things, either.  No one else would have tried to snitch either item from their shopping cart, at the price on the sticker.

Gallo being a purchase (cash) they look back on with some regrets, similar to Mahle (barter).  It's easy to overspend when you are new at it. 

Back on topic, the spending habits are being re-calibrated, but only partially by the lack of cash.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Gallo being a purchase (cash) they look back on with some regrets, similar to Mahle (barter).

Yes, we could also explore the fresh new topic of Josh Donaldson.

You're right - back on topic is the way to go.

[old nurse]

On 8/1/2024 at 10:03 PM, USAFChief said:

I haven't bought that story since it was planted.

Proof?  Thought so

[old nurse]

On 8/2/2024 at 10:08 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think there's a bit of a difference between starting and relief opportunities. If you actually look at the deadline moves there really wasn't much quality starting pitching moved outside of Fedde, Flaherty, and Kikuchi. I absolutely would not trade Lee, Jenkins, or Emma for any of those three. I'm even a little surprised that Keaschall was dangled but Fedde does have another year so I guess I can of see it. Can't see anything even in our top 10 prospects for Trevor Rogers. When you look at the returns these teams got, I understand why the FO was hesitant to match.

On the relief side, the prices for Tanner Scott and Carlos Estevez were astronomical for a reliever. No way do we pay that. We could and should have tried to get Luis Garcia, Gregory Soto, or even Ryan Yarborough. They we available at much better prospect prices and all would help. 

To me, the bottom line is where you think the team is in terms of competing for a WS spot. If we're close and 1 or 2 guys can get us there, you go for it and overpay, and worry about the fallout later. If not,  you only do something that makes long term sense. 

I don't think this team is 1 or 2 guys away.  I think we're at least 3 or 4 in the form of a strong middle of the order 3-5 bat to go with Correa hitting 2 and Buxton 6, a #2 type starter, a LH late inning reliever, and a solid RH hitting OF to platoon with Larnach.  It's possible that Ober will become a true #2 next season, moving the need down to a #4 (much easier to find). It's possible that Mirnada/Lewis/Wallner will become a strong 3-5 hitting group, or that Emma, Lee, or even Jenkins can fill that role soon, and that Martin can become a solid RH OF platoon option. We don't have the LH reliever in the system. I still think this team is one year away because I think those things can only happen with experience and MLB ABs, including playing Wallner against LH pitching. That's the way to play it this year. If it looks like those things can work, then overpay for a high end LH reliever over the winter.      

 

The trade deadline offered baindaids at emergency room prices fr some Dee wounds

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The trade deadline offered baindaids at emergency room prices fr some Dee wounds

And yet other teams made deals. They must all have bad GMs. 

[old nurse]

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And yet other teams made deals. They must all have bad GMs. 

Did you bother to read the zips table you linked on the increase in percentage chance of winning the World Series after all the trades were made? Only Baltimore and the Dodgers significantly increased their chances. In terms of making the playoffs, did any team significantly make a change to make their team with a better shot to get in the layoffs than the Twins?  Any trade is risk reward. There really wasn’t  enough to trade fr that was going to make the Twins World Series contenders  

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Did you bother to read the zips table you linked on the increase in percentage chance of winning the World Series after all the trades were made? Only Baltimore and the Dodgers significantly increased their chances. In terms of making the playoffs, did any team significantly make a change to make their team with a better shot to get in the layoffs than the Twins?  Any trade is risk reward. There really wasn’t  enough to trade fr that was going to make the Twins World Series contenders  

That's the argument every year, and yet other teams try to get better. It might work, it might not. I doubt standing pat is going to work. It hasn't for them so far. 

[old nurse]

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's the argument every year, and yet other teams try to get better. It might work, it might not. I doubt standing pat is going to work. It hasn't for them so far. 

You ignore the fact that the teams don’t get approachable better. The information you linked showed it. For the Twins to have become appreciably better they would have had to trade for Miami’s closer, Arozarena, and Eflin. For salary purposes they would have had to move two of Margo, Kepler and Vasquez without eating contracts. Considering what the trade for cost, and the prospect capital needed to get another team to take on money you could essential kiss 3/4 0f your 5-20 rated prospects goodbye 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, old nurse said:

You ignore the fact that the teams don’t get approachable better. The information you linked showed it. For the Twins to have become appreciably better they would have had to trade for Miami’s closer, Arozarena, and Eflin. For salary purposes they would have had to move two of Margo, Kepler and Vasquez without eating contracts. Considering what the trade for cost, and the prospect capital needed to get another team to take on money you could essential kiss 3/4 0f your 5-20 rated prospects goodbye 

I'm ignoring nothing. I'm pointing out that every year this is the excuse. They've won one playoff series standing pat at the deadline. They've done so every year but once, so I'm suggesting it isn't likely that they can never get better, under three GMs and decades of time at the deadline. It can't be that every other GM is wrong every year, and MN is right. Or other GMs would change their ways. 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm ignoring nothing. I'm pointing out that every year this is the excuse. They've won one playoff series standing pat at the deadline. They've done so every year but once, so I'm suggesting it isn't likely that they can never get better, under three GMs and decades of time at the deadline. It can't be that every other GM is wrong every year, and MN is right. Or other GMs would change their ways. 

0 fer the Yankee, Baltimore and Cleveland so far this year, what could they possibly have traded for that would make that up?