Off Day Musings

[stringer bell]

The Twins hit their high water mark this season with their victory over Seattle in the rubber game of a three game series in Emerald City. They are 10 games over for the first time this year. Baseball Reference gives them a 77.7% chance to make the playoffs at this point. That chance is better than Seattle, slightly better than Kansas City and much better than either Houston or Boston. The Twins have the fourth best record in the AL, but are six games worse than the best--Cleveland, New York and Baltimore are all 22 games over .500. Starting the second half of the season, those three teams would appear to be locks, while the Twins head up the second tier of likely playoff teams.

The Twins have enjoyed excellent health since an early spate of injuries. Only Alex Kirilloff and Chris Paddack have gone on ther IL in the last two months. Kirilloff had been struggling for weeks and Paddack had more poor starts than good ones. Perhaps both were affected by the injuries that put them on the IL, but neither was helping the team much before they were placed on IL. 

Looking ahead to the second half of the season, the Twins need to get their best bullpen arms in the major league bullpen. We are waiting for Brock Stewart to return and for Justin Topa to debut. Good performance from either is a risky bet due to their injuries. The supposed low-leverage bullpen arms just aren't very trustworthy. Steven Okert is LOOGy when the rules force him to face right handed hitters. Caleb Thielbar has been just bad. He can't get anyone out easily, it seems. Josh Sands is alternately pretty good and pretty bad, getting behind on counts and getting pitches mashed. If he's ahead in counts, he looks pretty good, but there have been way too many 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 counts where the hitter gets a middle-middle fastball. The Twins need to augment their middle relief and hopefully add a capable left hander.

The bottom of the position player roster has endured justified criticism. Manuel Margot has performed better, but his overall performance is subpar. He was viewed as a Michael A Taylor replacement--good defense, less power, more contact--but has settled in to be a platoon corner OF with little power and speed and only adequate defense. Kyle Farmer has struggled mightily. His utility value is diminished by having Willi Castro around and healthy left side guys Lewis, Miranda and Correa. Farmer hasn't crushed lefties and the power has waned (zero HRs in 141 PAs) and finally Christian Vázquez is playing every other day while compiling an OPS+ of 31.

Most connected with the team are predicting that Brooks Lee will be promoted in the next month or so. An injury could make the move happen sooner and a slump could delay such a move. Adding Lee, presumably at second base adds another everyday player and a switch hitter, perhaps balancing the lineup a bit. Austin Martin or Farmer would be in the crosshairs for demotion/DFA, with Martin being the likely victim. Thielbar's struggles allow Funderburk some rope as a lefty reliever. When used properly, Okert is functional. Jorge Alcalá has been terrific and would figure for more high-leverage work and I think the Twins need to see what they have in Josh Staumont--he's been handled with kid gloves in terms of workload and leverage--since he is still carrying a 0.00 ERA.

With good health, the Twins are a good pick to make postseason, although they have a steep hill to climb to catch Cleveland this year. Their self-imposed salary limitations make a splashy trade at the deadline pretty unlikely, but there is enough talent on board to see October baseball again in 2024. It is a long season and there will be ups and downs, but right now the remainder of the season looks exciting and worthwhile. 

 

[Vanimal46]

This month will be telling who the Twins really are as a team. Only 3 layups against the White Sox.

6 games against Detroit which typically gives us a good fight regardless of record. Houston is waking up and now over .500 after a horrible start to their season. Brewers and Phillies are leading their divisions by comfortable margins. San Fran and NYM are meh teams around .500. 

[Mike Sixel]

Ten games over. Given the tone on this site, you'd think they were ten games under .

Lots had gone right, but there still upside here on the hitting side. And the bullpen if Duran returns to elite and Stewart is healthy. 

[Shaitan]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ten games over. Given the tone on this site, you'd think they were ten games under .

Lots had gone right, but there still upside here on the hitting side. And the bullpen if Duran returns to elite and Stewart is healthy. 

Exactly. It's a long season and teams evolve too. The Yankees of April won't be the Yankees of October either.

But right now this team, that is perceived on paper to be worse than 1 year ago, has a better W-L record than 1 year ago.

[USAFChief]

If the playoffs started today, the Twins would be in either Baltimore or New York for a best of three.

Important to catch Cleveland,  IYAM.

[Shaitan]

11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If the playoffs started today, the Twins would be in either Baltimore or New York for a best of three.

Important to catch Cleveland,  IYAM.

IMO If you can't beat the team you draw then you don't deserve it.