Can the Twins Sustain Their Strikeout Rate Improvement?

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What was their approach change?

As @CCHOF5yearstoolate pointed out, the Twins have been hitting the ball in the air more, and for more power, during this run of success. That's been their approach the whole time. Hit the ball hard in the air because it results in power. Looks to me like they're just being more successful at the approach they've always had.

 

That's what I see as well.  The strikeout isn't the problem, its one of the indicators of not executing to the plan.  Sure, their plan will involve some strikeouts but when the strikeout is the result of a poor at bat it's the poor at bat that's the problem, not the strikeout. 

I don't really know what the best indicator of quality at-bats is, but they feel much better to my eye.  The several times aforementioned Jeffers looks like he is controlling the at bats rather than the pitcher.

[TwinsDr2021]

My son and I have watched just about every game this year and this seems like a big difference in the approach from the beginning of the year until now. Jeffers for one was taking huge swings and sometimes falling to his knees to a less violent swing right about the time he starting getting hot. Miranda has going with the pitch, slashing lineup drives to right fields, Even Kepler looks like he is trying less to pull pitches that shouldn't be pulled and going with where it is pitched.

To me it seems like somebody told them you don't have to swing has hard as you can to hit the ball hard, it is more important to barrel up the ball and hit it hard and good things happen. I mean they are still wildly swinging on occasion but it seems like it happens in hitter friendly counts.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What was their approach change?

As @CCHOF5yearstoolate pointed out, the Twins have been hitting the ball in the air more, and for more power, during this run of success. That's been their approach the whole time. Hit the ball hard in the air because it results in power. Looks to me like they're just being more successful at the approach they've always had.

 

I have never made an issue about hitting the ball in the air or not in my arguments, especially on the text I quoted on that you quoted me. So I don't want to start to debate you on this. It's the "all or nothing" approach that produces much more SOs in clutch situations than HRs especially when the league has zoned in on this. I have never made this a secret. Baldelli stated that they needed to change their approach at the plate to be more responsible in addressing their SO & hitting problem just before we had this winning streak. If you want to believe that the Twins were just unlucky prior, just go right ahead. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My son and I have watched just about every game this year and this seems like a big difference in the approach from the beginning of the year until now. Jeffers for one was taking huge swings and sometimes falling to his knees to a less violent swing right about the time he starting getting hot. Miranda has going with the pitch, slashing lineup drives to right fields, Even Kepler looks like he is trying less to pull pitches that shouldn't be pulled and going with where it is pitched.

To me it seems like somebody told them you don't have to swing has hard as you can to hit the ball hard, it is more important to barrel up the ball and hit it hard and good things happen. I mean they are still wildly swinging on occasion but it seems like it happens in hitter friendly counts.

Not the greatest graphs ever created but they'll get the job done. Here's what we get from Statcast's bat tracking data

2 Strike Swing speed Before 4/19 vs After 4/19 (below the orange line means they are swinging softer since 4/19)

 

2 Strike Swing Speed vs 0/1 Strike Swing Speed (below the orange line means they are swinging softer w/ 2 strikes)

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I have never made an issue about hitting the ball in the air or not in my arguments, especially on the text I quoted on that you quoted me. So I don't want to start to debate you on this. It's the "all or nothing" approach that produces much more SOs in clutch situations than HRs especially when the league has zoned in on this. I have never made this a secret. Baldelli stated that they needed to change their approach at the plate to be more responsible in addressing their SO & hitting problem just before we had this winning streak. If you want to believe that the Twins were just unlucky prior, Baldelli was mistaken, or maybe the rally sausage has magical powers just go right ahead. 

What about their approach now is different than the "all or nothing" approach you believe they used to have? Nobody disagrees that they had a strikeout problem, but what did they stop doing that you believe fixed that problem? I don't know what you mean by "all or nothing" approach so I don't know what you think changed.

Here's a chart showing 13 player's average bat speed with 2 strikes on them from 4/3 (earliest the data goes) to 4/21:

Here is a chart showing the same 13 guys bat speed with 2 strikes on them from 4/22 (winning streak start) to 5/13:

You can double check my work, but I have Correa (.7), Kirilloff (.4), Castro (.8), Vazquez (.2) and Martin (.4) as slowing their 2 strike swings after the winning streak started. I have Larnach (.4), Jeffers (.4), Margot (1), Julien (.6), Kepler (.7), Santana (.6), and Miranda (1.4) as speeding up their 2 strike swings after the winning streak started. And I have Buxton at the exact same.

I take the idea that they stopped their "all or nothing" approach to mean, at least in part, that they aren't swinging as hard, especially with 2 strikes. But 7 of the 13 guys have actually been swinging harder with 2 strikes during the successful stretch of games than they were when the offense was struggling.

Then comparing fast swing rate I see Correa, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Castro going down. Jeffers, Margot, Julien, Kepler, Santana, and Miranda going up. Buxton, Vazquez, and Martin staying the same. So more have upped that number than lowered it.

Squared up percentages have sky-rocketed for Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, margot, Julien, and Castro while also going up for Santana and Miranda. Vazquez has plummeted while Correa, Buxton, Kepler, and Martin have gone down some.

Based on all this it sure looks to me like they haven't drastically changed their 2 strike approach, but are simply getting much better results. They're swinging just as hard, if not harder, with 2 strikes than when they were doing poorly, but they're producing much better results. 

In all counts data:

Again, check my work, but I have Correa (.6), Kirilloff (.6) and Castro (.1) as going down. I have Buxton (.6), Larnach (1.4), Jeffers (.7), Margot (1.1), Kepler (2.1), Santana (.4), Miranda (1.3), Vazquez (.1) and Martin (.2) as going up. And Julien staying the same. So 3 guys swinging slower, and 9 swinging faster. 

The Twins are swinging harder in all counts, including with 2 strikes, now than when they were struggling in early April. I don't see an approach change, I see better success at that approach.

[Dman]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"The Streak" started on April 22. If we use that as the date of when they started to succeed here's some comparisons on 2 strike #s as a team:

Hard hit rate- Through 4/21: 28.5%, after 4/21: 32.2%
Med hit rate- Through 4/21: 51.6%, after 4/21: 51.9%
Soft hit rate- Through 4/21: 19.9%, after 4/21: 15.9%

Line drive rate: Through 4/21: 17.7%, after 4/21: 21.5%
Ground ball rate: Through 4/21: 46.8%, after 4/21: 39.3%
Fly ball rate: Through 4/21: 35.5%, after 4/21: 39.9%
HR/FB rate: Through 4/21: 9.1%, after 4/21: 11.9%

To me that looks like better success at the same approach. Nearly the same medium hit rate while seeing a real shift from soft contact to hard contact. Significantly fewer ground balls with improved line drive and fly ball rates. And an improved HR/FB rate.

Part of this could be some definition differences. What do we all mean by "approach?" That's why I think it's important to discuss what changes people feel were made. But this team has actually hit the ball harder with 2 strikes since they started being successful. Lots of things that could lead to that, but I don't think many people attribute widening stances and choking up with improved hard hit rates (balls with exit velos over 95 MPH). Not saying that isn't a possible answer, but not the first thing people would think of when it comes to hitting the ball harder.

(All stats from Fangraphs splits leaderboard filtered for 2 strike counts)
 

That is some amazing data.  Maybe this is a Jeffer's chocking up his bat with 2 strikes bias (TV Announcers seem to mention this every time he has 2 strikes), but I bought into the narrative that they were likely swinging less hard with 2 strikes and going for a more contact oriented approach.

Those stats kind of blow my mind, but number's don't lie and those numbers do fit what the Twins FO has said they want to do.  Swing hard and don't fear the K. 

Well regardless of the numbers I just hope they keep barreling baseballs and continue to see good results from the offense.  Keeping the K's down would be an added benefit.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

That is some amazing data.  Maybe this is a Jeffer's chocking up his bat with 2 strikes bias (TV Announcers seem to mention this every time he has 2 strikes), but I bought into the narrative that they were likely swinging less hard with 2 strikes and going for a more contact oriented approach.

Those stats kind of blow my mind, but number's don't lie and those numbers do fit what the Twins FO has said they want to do.  Swing hard and don't fear the K. 

Well regardless of the numbers I just hope they keep barreling baseballs and continue to see good results from the offense.  Keeping the K's down would be an added benefit.

https://www.mlb.com/video/ryan-jeffers-strikes-out-swinging-2bldu0?q=Strikes %3D [2] AND PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=MIXED&p=0

https://www.mlb.com/video/jordan-romano-foul-to-ryan-jeffers?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] AND Strikes %3D [1] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=MIXED&p=0

It's obviously really hard to tell from this angle, but it looks to me like Jeffers is choked up about the same on the bat with both 1 strike and 2 strikes here.

https://www.mlb.com/video/ryan-jeffers-homers-9-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-center-field?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0

This one shows a zoomed in shot of his hands at the start. 1 strike on him and he's still a little choked up. I think that is just how he's hitting now.

I don't know what changes they've all made to all the things that go into being a successful major league hitter, but I don't see any proof that they've made any drastic changes to their approach. Hit the ball hard, preferably in the air. Hitting 101 for most MLB teams at this point. 

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

https://www.mlb.com/video/ryan-jeffers-strikes-out-swinging-2bldu0?q=Strikes %3D [2] AND PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=MIXED&p=0

https://www.mlb.com/video/jordan-romano-foul-to-ryan-jeffers?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] AND Strikes %3D [1] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=MIXED&p=0

It's obviously really hard to tell from this angle, but it looks to me like Jeffers is choked up about the same on the bat with both 1 strike and 2 strikes here.

https://www.mlb.com/video/ryan-jeffers-homers-9-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-center-field?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0

This one shows a zoomed in shot of his hands at the start. 1 strike on him and he's still a little choked up. I think that is just how he's hitting now.

I don't know what changes they've all made to all the things that go into being a successful major league hitter, but I don't see any proof that they've made any drastic changes to their approach. Hit the ball hard, preferably in the air. Hitting 101 for most MLB teams at this point. 

Yeah even when they showed it in game with 2 strikes it was not much of a choke up IMO maybe an inch tops?  I really appreciate the data.  Thanks for giving me more information!

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

"The Streak" started on April 22. If we use that as the date of when they started to succeed here's some comparisons on 2 strike #s as a team:

Hard hit rate- Through 4/21: 28.5%, after 4/21: 32.2%
Med hit rate- Through 4/21: 51.6%, after 4/21: 51.9%
Soft hit rate- Through 4/21: 19.9%, after 4/21: 15.9%

Line drive rate: Through 4/21: 17.7%, after 4/21: 21.5%
Ground ball rate: Through 4/21: 46.8%, after 4/21: 39.3%
Fly ball rate: Through 4/21: 35.5%, after 4/21: 39.9%
HR/FB rate: Through 4/21: 9.1%, after 4/21: 11.9%

To me that looks like better success at the same approach. Nearly the same medium hit rate while seeing a real shift from soft contact to hard contact. Significantly fewer ground balls with improved line drive and fly ball rates. And an improved HR/FB rate.

Part of this could be some definition differences. What do we all mean by "approach?" That's why I think it's important to discuss what changes people feel were made. But this team has actually hit the ball harder with 2 strikes since they started being successful. Lots of things that could lead to that, but I don't think many people attribute widening stances and choking up with improved hard hit rates (balls with exit velos over 95 MPH). Not saying that isn't a possible answer, but not the first thing people would think of when it comes to hitting the ball harder.

(All stats from Fangraphs splits leaderboard filtered for 2 strike counts)
 

Jeffers - saw an approach analysis on him about a week ago on MLB TV morning show. DeRosa had his swing v. last year (very similar) as well as his swing this year v. his starkly different approach with 2 strikes. With 2 strikes he spreads out prior to the pitch in his initial stance  - he picks up the front foot and almost immediately replaces it in the ground - very quiet lower body. He’s choked up about an inch & a half with two strikes as well. I pointed out last week here that his average was higher with 2 strikes and his power is essentially the same. Quick, compact swing to the ball. Working great and it seems like the most simple & intuitively logical approach one could use. I suggested he scrap his “prior to 2 strike” approach. Whole team should study and adopt some variation on his theme. Particularly Mr Kirilloff!!! Been a fan of Alex for 3 years but he doesn’t change a thing with 2 strikes and his numbers make that painfully obvious!

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What about their approach now is different than the "all or nothing" approach you believe they used to have? Nobody disagrees that they had a strikeout problem, but what did they stop doing that you believe fixed that problem? I don't know what you mean by "all or nothing" approach so I don't know what you think changed.

Here's a chart showing 13 player's average bat speed with 2 strikes on them from 4/3 (earliest the data goes) to 4/21:

Here is a chart showing the same 13 guys bat speed with 2 strikes on them from 4/22 (winning streak start) to 5/13:

You can double check my work, but I have Correa (.7), Kirilloff (.4), Castro (.8), Vazquez (.2) and Martin (.4) as slowing their 2 strike swings after the winning streak started. I have Larnach (.4), Jeffers (.4), Margot (1), Julien (.6), Kepler (.7), Santana (.6), and Miranda (1.4) as speeding up their 2 strike swings after the winning streak started. And I have Buxton at the exact same.

I take the idea that they stopped their "all or nothing" approach to mean, at least in part, that they aren't swinging as hard, especially with 2 strikes. But 7 of the 13 guys have actually been swinging harder with 2 strikes during the successful stretch of games than they were when the offense was struggling.

Then comparing fast swing rate I see Correa, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Castro going down. Jeffers, Margot, Julien, Kepler, Santana, and Miranda going up. Buxton, Vazquez, and Martin staying the same. So more have upped that number than lowered it.

Squared up percentages have sky-rocketed for Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, margot, Julien, and Castro while also going up for Santana and Miranda. Vazquez has plummeted while Correa, Buxton, Kepler, and Martin have gone down some.

Based on all this it sure looks to me like they haven't drastically changed their 2 strike approach, but are simply getting much better results. They're swinging just as hard, if not harder, with 2 strikes than when they were doing poorly, but they're producing much better results. 

In all counts data:

Again, check my work, but I have Correa (.6), Kirilloff (.6) and Castro (.1) as going down. I have Buxton (.6), Larnach (1.4), Jeffers (.7), Margot (1.1), Kepler (2.1), Santana (.4), Miranda (1.3), Vazquez (.1) and Martin (.2) as going up. And Julien staying the same. So 3 guys swinging slower, and 9 swinging faster. 

The Twins are swinging harder in all counts, including with 2 strikes, now than when they were struggling in early April. I don't see an approach change, I see better success at that approach.

I tell you chpettit. I took an economic class a long time ago in college. I really liked my teacher but when he started to pull out graphs having arrows going this way & that way he lost me right away. I skipped most of my classes & showed up for quizzes & exams. Instead of trying to come to the answers by using graphs & etc.,, I used my common sense & I aced my class. You can come up with graphs & stats, you'll lose me & I don't trust them. You can have your graphs & stats but I'll stick to my common sense. Thank you.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I tell you chpettit. I took an economic class a long time ago in college. I really liked my teacher but when he started to pull out graphs having arrows going this way & that way he lost me right away. I skipped most of my classes & showed up for quizzes & exams. Instead of trying to come to the answers by using graphs & etc.,, I used my common sense & I aced my class. You can come up with graphs & stats, you'll lose me & I don't trust them. You can have your graphs & stats but I'll stick to my common sense. Thank you.

Are you able to tell us what approach change you believe took place? Can you define "all or nothing" approach and what is different now than before? Maybe your common sense matches my graphs and charts like it did in economics. Maybe it doesn't. We'll never know if you can't tell us what you believe they're doing different.

[chpettit19]

55 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Jeffers - saw an approach analysis on him about a week ago on MLB TV morning show. DeRosa had his swing v. last year (very similar) as well as his swing this year v. his starkly different approach with 2 strikes. With 2 strikes he spreads out prior to the pitch in his initial stance  - he picks up the front foot and almost immediately replaces it in the ground - very quiet lower body. He’s choked up about an inch & a half with two strikes as well. I pointed out last week here that his average was higher with 2 strikes and his power is essentially the same. Quick, compact swing to the ball. Working great and it seems like the most simple & intuitively logical approach one could use. I suggested he scrap his “prior to 2 strike” approach. Whole team should study and adopt some variation on his theme. Particularly Mr Kirilloff!!! Been a fan of Alex for 3 years but he doesn’t change a thing with 2 strikes and his numbers make that painfully obvious!

Well Jeffers is no longer doing better with 2 strikes, but he does cut his swing down. Everyone on the Twins not named Jair Camargo actually swings slower with 2 strikes. Miranda, Correa, Julien, and Castro (all .2 feet shorter) shorten their swing the most. Followed by Santana and Jeffers (.1 feet shorter). I don't know when he started choking up without 2 strikes, but it certainly seems to be helping Jeffers. I think scrapping "prior to 2 strike" approaches is probably a very, very bad idea in the grand scheme of things, but whatever Jeffers is doing is very much working for him.

[old nurse]

21 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO the best way isn't comparing this year to last year because the pitching adjusted better to the Twins this season and hitters like Lewis greatly improved our #s in the 2nd half of last season. To get a more accurate idea we need to compare the beginning of the season which the league adjusted to the point they changed their approach until now. Our #s really sucked in the beginning of this year (old approach) which really affected our total for this season. I highly doubt that 2nd part of this season #s (approach change) are poorer than the 1st (the old). It's easy to get deceived.

There is a supposition on your part the changed their approach