Minnesota Twins 2nd Round Pick RHP Ryan Eades

[Kwak]

Gosh reading so many threads about Eades remarking that he doesn't throw 95 and K 10 per game--really did people really think those guys exist at #43? Baker was a 2nd rounder at was at least serviceable until he got injured.

[Pitz]

To Summarize:

1)None of us are scouting experts, but we all have the right to our opinion about this pick. Some of us think it was a fine pick. Others wish the Twins would have gone with someone else and it should be fun to discuss those opinions.

2) We won't know for a couple years how these picks turn out, but we all hope they turn out to be great picks and contribute to a World Series Champion Twins team sometime in the not too distant future.

[launchingthrees]

The twins are never short of bottom of the rotation pitchers. This pick makes no sense to me.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think there's more upside here than people realize. He was a potential first rounder at the beginning of the season but didn't really live up to the hype. Perhaps Twins scouts saw something they could fix and unlock that talent... I don't know. I'd have preferred Kyle Serrano (far more upside), but given the signability concerns, I can see what they did... that and no one drafted him so he may still be there in round 3...

 

That said, given the org need for pitching, a guy like Eades can move up the chain much quicker. That too has value, especially to a team lacking enough pitching to fit with the next wave. I wouldn't call him a back of the rotation arm just yet. He could blossom into a nice 3 type guy. He wasn't my first choice, but this is hardly a bad selection.

[cmathewson]

I defer to Baseball America on this pick. By their rankings, he was the best player on the board.

[cmathewson]

Eades doesn't strike anyone out and is at best a marginal third rounder. The next 9 guys taken are preferable options. No idea what is going on with this team. Trevor Williams, Cody Reed, Blake Taylor, and Tom Windle will be better than Eades.

 

Hopefully tomorrow is better. They got Stewart and that is good, but then they ruined it.

 

I know! This pick is so stupid, it makes you question the whole organization from top to bottom!!! They've completely ruined the whole franchise with this pick! We might as well start rooting for the Brewers, cause this guy is a total waste of resources!

[big dog]

The twins are never short of bottom of the rotation pitchers. This pick makes no sense to me.

 

We seem to be pretty short of them right now. I don't recall many potential top-rotation guys available at #43. He could easily be better than bottom of the rotation.

 

I agree with sentiments expressed above- baseball draft is a crapshoot. The only thing you know for sure is which hand guys use to throw. Doesn't hurt to speculate, but declaring someone a bust already seems a bit premature.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get why people are upset that people are, you know, offering their opinion on a pick, in a thread about the pick......what are we supposed to do in these threads if not discuss and offer opinions?

[Cap'n Piranha]

I think there's more upside here than people realize. He was a potential first rounder at the beginning of the season but didn't really live up to the hype. Perhaps Twins scouts saw something they could fix and unlock that talent... I don't know. I'd have preferred Kyle Serrano (far more upside), but given the signability concerns, I can see what they did... that and no one drafted him so he may still be there in round 3...

 

That said, given the org need for pitching, a guy like Eades can move up the chain much quicker. That too has value, especially to a team lacking enough pitching to fit with the next wave. I wouldn't call him a back of the rotation arm just yet. He could blossom into a nice 3 type guy. He wasn't my first choice, but this is hardly a bad selection.

 

A guy who is a 3 means he is one of the 75 best SP's in the league at the time. If the 23rd pitcher taken in this year's draft turns into that, I think you're in pretty good shape. Not to mention, if he comes in a Gibson-Meyer wave, he would be our number 3, and would potentially be our number 5 when a Stewart-Berrios-May wave hits. All in all, this is a good pick if it works out, and at this point, who knows if that will happen.

[Mike Sixel]

Baseball America had him at #31 and said he was in contention as the third best college starting pitcher in the draft....it's one thing to disagree its another for some mouth breathers to make up a bunch of bull**** to support their theory of "durrr the twins don't know what they are doing" meme

 

Name calling? Sigh.

[DaveW]

Stewart was pretty much consensus BPA there and the Twins really need high upside arms, its a good pick.

Not that Windle would've been a bad choice but neither Law or BA seemed particularly enamored with him.

How serious is he about baseball?

 

Yes clearly joe Mauer who was a three sport star wasn't serious enough either...give me a break, that is some serious straw grasping going on

[DaveW]

Name calling? Sigh.

Meh, whatever, it's true, people that make up garbage just to support their bizzare "lets bash on everything the twins do" are a big reason why a lot of people don't visit the forum as much these days. It's much more harmful to the community then one general "name calling"

[Mike Sixel]

A guy who is a 3 means he is one of the 75 best SP's in the league at the time. If the 23rd pitcher taken in this year's draft turns into that' date=' I think you're in pretty good shape. Not to mention, if he comes in a Gibson-Meyer wave, he would be our number 3, and would potentially be our number 5 when a Stewart-Berrios-May wave hits. All in all, this is a good pick if it works out, and at this point, who knows if that will happen.[/quote']

 

Aren't all picks good picks if they work out? That's a bit of a tautology, right?

 

I agree with your first part, a number 3 pitcher is a very, very valuable pitcher. If this guy is that eventually, it is a very good pick. I might have gone with a higher upside guy, but I don't know how people can be killing the Twins for this pick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Eades doesn't strike anyone out and is at best a marginal third rounder. The next 9 guys taken are preferable options. No idea what is going on with this team. Trevor Williams, Cody Reed, Blake Taylor, and Tom Windle will be better than Eades.

 

Hopefully tomorrow is better. They got Stewart and that is good, but then they ruined it.

 

The Twins kicked some serious ass in last year's draft. I wouldn't declare anyone "better" a few hours after the draft happened and at this point, I will defer to letting the professionals do their jobs. Reports on Eades are mixed but there's definite upside in the kid.

 

You might be right. You might be wrong. But after the Twins nabbed the best player in last year's draft and one of the best pitchers in the supplemental round, I'm going to quietly reserve judgment until we actually get to see Eades throw a baseball.

[nicksaviking]

Eades wasn't my top choice but seeing as they signed a precieved tough sign HS arm with the #4 pick, it was almost a given that the #2 pick would be an easy sign college kid. Most of those in round 2 don't have the upside we would like, but Eades is pretty polished from a big time program, perhaps they were looking for someone they can plug right into Ft. Myers. Dollars to donuts, I'll bet with DJ Baxendale's impressive debut and quick movement, they saw Eades and thought he has the same kind of potential career path.

 

 

I wanted Hunter Green but assumed the Twins would have to go the college route. I was hoping for Cody Reed or Bobby Wahl, Reed however was a JC guy so I suppose he could go to a 4-year school and be a tougher sign, Wahl is still available.

[Pitz]

I honestly don't know a lot about Eades or the rest of the guys drafted surrounding him. Read a few brief scouting reports, saw BA had him ranked 37, and I feel the Twins did alright with this pick. Maybe they could have gone after a higher ceiling (although I'm guessing that would also involve greater risk and possibly signability concerns). I like that they backed up a prep pitcher with a college senior.

[Mike Sixel]

I think I agree with what Nick said, this is partly about following the Stewart pick with a more signable player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Eades wasn't my top choice but seeing as they signed a precieved tough sign HS arm with the #4 pick, it was almost a given that the #2 pick would be an easy sign college kid.

 

Good point. I think people forget that draft spending is now capped. The Twins may be worried that Stewart will require overslot money to leave football and may have information that Eades will sign for a reasonable amount, allowing them some flexibility in rounds three and beyond.

[jorgenswest]

It is really easy to be critical in the MLB draft. You are almost certain to be proven correct. Look at all of the number 43 picks.

 

43rd Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft - Baseball-Reference.com

 

One guy has above 20 WAR. Bob Knepper.

 

One guy has 10 WAR. Scott Hatteberg.

 

The third best guy with 3.3 WAR is Wade Miley.

 

No one else has done anything. Taijuan Walker look promising though.

 

Knepper and Miley. Both lefties. Good control.

 

Note: You will see Mark Prior in the list. He didn't sign. Everyone knew he wouldn't sign. Not even Yankee money could get him to sign. He isn't pick 43 talent.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow, the third best guy has 3.3? Wow.

[DaveW]

Good point. I think people forget that draft spending is now capped. The Twins may be worried that Stewart will require overslot money to leave football and may have information that Eades will sign for a reasonable amount, allowing them some flexibility in rounds three and beyond.

 

Stewart better not require over slot money, he isn't going to turn down 4-5 mil (or whatever it is) to go be at the very best the #3 QB at A&M, first off they still have Johnny Football for the next two years at least, second off A&M signed the #4 H.S. QB in the country last year as well, Bubba Starling he is not, and Bubba was a sure thing sign as well. Stewart would be a damned fool to turn down this much money and have to wait another 3 years, period!

[DaveW]

It is really easy to be critical in the MLB draft. You are almost certain to be proven correct. Look at all of the number 43 picks.

 

43rd Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft - Baseball-Reference.com

 

One guy has above 20 WAR. Bob Knepper.

 

One guy has 10 WAR. Scott Hatteberg.

 

The third best guy with 3.3 WAR is Wade Miley.

 

No one else has done anything. Taijuan Walker look promising though.

 

Knepper and Miley. Both lefties. Good control.

 

Note: You will see Mark Prior in the list. He didn't sign. Everyone knew he wouldn't sign. Not even Yankee money could get him to sign. He isn't pick 43 talent.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

If you can end up with two or three major league starters out of one draft you are doing something right. If you end up with a "star" and another starter or two, you are ahead of the game.

[Boone]

Eades doesn't strike anyone out and is at best a marginal third rounder. The next 9 guys taken are preferable options. No idea what is going on with this team. Trevor Williams, Cody Reed, Blake Taylor, and Tom Windle will be better than Eades.

 

Hopefully tomorrow is better. They got Stewart and that is good, but then they ruined it.

 

Being this critical of the Twins non-1st round pick is a little ridiculous for several reasons:

1. We know very, very little about any prospects outside the top-5. This isn't the NFL draft.

2. The Twins, on the other hand, have spent a ton of time scouting players. They know a lot.

3. Eades was ranked as the 37 prospect by BA and 29 by MLB.com (not that I trust them that much). There is a video on ESPN from early May where KLaw said he thought Eades would go 20-30 range. These guys know a lot more than any of us do, and their analysis seems to indicate that we got good value at 43.

4. Lastly, the Twins recent history of drafting pitchers has been good. Berrios was considered a huge reach at 32(?), but he has turned out rather well to this point. Many of the college arms they drafted last year, such as Baxendale, Duffey, and Rogers, have also performed well to this point. Yes, it's way too early to know if they will pan out, but as of now I think the Twins deserve the benefit of the doubt.

[cmathewson]

A guy who is a 3 means he is one of the 75 best SP's in the league at the time. If the 23rd pitcher taken in this year's draft turns into that' date=' I think you're in pretty good shape. Not to mention, if he comes in a Gibson-Meyer wave, he would be our number 3, and would potentially be our number 5 when a Stewart-Berrios-May wave hits. All in all, this is a good pick if it works out, and at this point, who knows if that will happen.[/quote']

 

This. He's similar to Baker or Wimmers. I'd be happy to get a back-of-the-rotation starter in the second round. Most of these guys never make it to the majors, or end up in the bullpen.

[launchingthrees]

The post you're responding to speaks to the opposite of your point. There is no such thing as a safe pick at 43. No 10war players are available. The best strategy is to swing for the fences when it costs you nothing.

 

Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

If you can end up with two or three major league starters out of one draft you are doing something right. If you end up with a "star" and another starter or two, you are ahead of the game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Stewart better not require over slot money, he isn't going to turn down 4-5 mil (or whatever it is) to go be at the very best the #3 QB at A&M, first off they still have Johnny Football for the next two years at least, second off A&M signed the #4 H.S. QB in the country last year as well, Bubba Starling he is not, and Bubba was a sure thing sign as well. Stewart would be a damned fool to turn down this much money and have to wait another 3 years, period!

 

I think it's unlikely that he'll require much over slot but who knows what it will take to pry the kid from football. He is a Texan, after all.

 

Either way, following a risk with more of a sure thing isn't a bad draft strategy, particularly because some were pretty high on Eades before the season.

 

And let's not pretend that the 43rd pick is some kind of draft goldmine. Others have shown just how much of a stretch that spot is in the first place.

[MichiganTwins]

I think we are forgetting that a #3 starter or even a #4 would be better than palfrey. So I am happy with it.

[DaveW]

The post you're responding to speaks to the opposite of your point. There is no such thing as a safe pick at 43. No 10war players are available. The best strategy is to swing for the fences when it costs you nothing.

 

Actually no, because Eades actually does have upside no matter how hard you want it to be the exact opposite it simply is not true.

 

Also, yes 43 doesn't have a great track record, but if you look at 42 you will find Clay Bucholz recently, Chris Perez, Garrett Richards, Mookie Wilson (20+ WAR), Dennis Lenoard (25+ WAR)

 

44 has Nick Castellanos (tough sign no doubt), Tanner Scheppers, Joey Votto!!(30+ WAR), Jon Lieber (20+ WAR)

 

The point is, you can find plenty of "value" in these picks, do they more often then not work? Of course, its the freaking MLB draft, but your "just shoot for the moon strategy" is fool hardy and completely ignores that Eades does have some solid upside!

[DaveW]

I think it's unlikely that he'll require much over slot but who knows what it will take to pry the kid from football. He is a Texan, after all.

 

Either way, following a risk with more of a sure thing isn't a bad draft strategy, particularly because some were pretty high on Eades before the season.

 

And let's not pretend that the 43rd pick is some kind of draft goldmine. Others have shown just how much of a stretch that spot is in the first place.

Law and everyone else have said Stewart is 100% lock to sign, he was the #4 pick and will get #4 money (or close to it) there is no way in hell he (or his agent) will let him turn that down. You make significantly more money in baseball then football anyways (ntm his odds of getting drafted in the NFL are so small and far away at this point).

 

He is signing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The post you're responding to speaks to the opposite of your point. There is no such thing as a safe pick at 43. No 10war players are available. The best strategy is to swing for the fences when it costs you nothing.

 

Each draft is different and as Dave pointed out, #42 and #44 have produced good players. The Twins obviously see something in Eades or they wouldn't have picked him. Others see something in him as well, as various outlets have ranked him anywhere from 10 to 20 spots higher than #43 (before he seemed to drop in the eyes of some).

 

The "best strategy" is to pick the guy you can sign and the guy you like the best. Did the Twins do that? I don't know. And neither does anyone else in this thread. Maybe the Twins disliked all of those supposed "high upside" guys people are raving about in this thread. Maybe a few of them have their shoulders held together with bubble gum, rubber bands, and duct tape.

 

In this situation, I'll defer to the guys who nabbed Berrios in the supplemental round last draft. It's fine to disagree with the Twins' draft moves... But saying with certainty that the pick was a bad one? Nah, that's just silly, not to mention incredibly arrogant.