Twins Trade Candidates: Targeting Extension and Effective Velocity

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I am warming up to that idea.  

Go outside. Wear a t-shirt.

When you get back in the house, your mind will feel right.

[Twinsrtheworst]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Great analysis on Gilbert & extension value - too, “in the weeds” for me to consider his fit v. others though.

I could see trading nearly any of the guys available for a top half of rotation starter - so anyone but the following:

None of the existing top 4 starters…….Duran ……Buxton - CC - Lewis - Lee - Jenkins. So, outside of these 10 guys, all others are available to be traded to upgrade staff.

I think, for the $$ spent and reduction of trade capital, we should push hard to get Devin Williams from the Brewers to make our Pen elite. He can help us with a positive impact in 45-55 games this year & next year. There are enough veteran & prospect guys left on list to pull this trade off.

Twins goes with the existing Staff & use Festa & SWR & if needed, Headrick to help get to the deadline. If they still need help they can get a guy in trade from one of the 8-10 teams that will have given up by then. LEAST EXPENSIVE, best depth move is solidifying the Pen with a difference maker.

I’d prefer to keep young trade assets and move Polanco for prospect & $$ to be able to sign Clevinger for $14-$15M on a short deal. This seems a way to reduce risk of losing a star in trade (for a few months) and get a reasonable depth arm for a year or two.

Could sign Clevinger and continue to pursue a starter in trade. If both work out, possibly Varland to the Pen sooner than later?

I don't see the Brewers trading Williams.  That would be similar to us trading Duran.  We wouldn't do that either.

[Jim wyllie]

I would offer Polanco, Festa, Rodriguez, acala, and Sabato

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, Parker Hageman said:

Height does not necessarily equal extension.

Sean Hjelle is 6'11" and gets 6.59 feet down the mound, which is well below average for pitchers who are 6'6" and above. There are other similar pitchers blessed with altitude that do not get down the hill well. 

Extension (and the improvement of) is a product of the rear leg. The Twins development has been really good at getting pitchers to use their bodies better and ride the slope down longer and that helps create extension and velocity. 

What's interesting to me is that the Twins' pitchers in St. Paul are often below average in this area (18 of 30 teams). 

I was hoping Parker might wade into this conversation! Would add this, to his point, Pablo added to his pretty significantly last season when compared to his time with the Marlins.

[harmony55]

Seattle is likely to make only minor changes to its current lineup;

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners

The chances of the Mariners unloading Logan Gilbert are nearly nil.

 

 

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, harmony55 said:

Seattle is likely to make only minor changes to its current lineup;

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners

The chances of the Mariners unloading Logan Gilbert are nearly nil.

 

 

As I said in the piece and the comments, this isn't really about the trade being realistic, that's why I didn't propose a package, it's more about exploring the Twins relationship with extension.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Jim wyllie said:

I would offer Polanco, Festa, Rodriguez, acala, and Sabato

You can include Aaron Sabato, or you can include his baseball card.  Each has approximately equal trade value to another club.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Jim wyllie said:

I would offer Polanco, Festa, Rodriguez, acala, and Sabato

For what player? Sabato?

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, se7799 said:

That would be similar to us trading Duran.  We wouldn't do that either.

I would trade Duran to get Gilbert.

[August J Gloop]

20 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Seattle is likely to make only minor changes to its current lineup;

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners

The chances of the Mariners unloading Logan Gilbert are nearly nil.

 

 

I see you're new to the world of Jerry DiPoto.

Logan Gilbert has not been good enough to demand top prospects now that he's getting Arb bumps. I bet if the Twins showed up With Polanco and 10 Million Bucks, they could get Gilbert. They'd probably have to include a little more to soothe Trader Jerry's urges, but nothing gets him going quite like getting players for free.  

[harmony55]

3 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

I see you're new to the world of Jerry DiPoto.

Logan Gilbert has not been good enough to demand top prospects now that he's getting Arb bumps. I bet if the Twins showed up With Polanco and 10 Million Bucks, they could get Gilbert. They'd probably have to include a little more to soothe Trader Jerry's urges, but nothing gets him going quite like getting players for free.  

Welcome to the world of Jerry Dipoto with a lower case p. The post lives up to the namesake's sloppy reputation.

Logan Gilbert agreed to a 2024 salary of $4.05 million as a Super Two. Because of roster needs the Mariners would be unlikely to trade one year of 33-year-old right hander Anthony DeSclafani at $12 million for one year of Jorge Polanco at a guarenteed $11.25 million (with an option for two years at $22.5 million).

Warm regards,

Seattle Mariner fan since 1995

 

[August J Gloop]

17 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Welcome to the world of Jerry Dipoto with a lower case p. The post lives up to the namesake's sloppy reputation.

Logan Gilbert agreed to a 2024 salary of $4.05 million as a Super Two. Because of roster needs the Mariners would be unlikely to trade one year of 33-year-old right hander Anthony DeSclafani at $12 million for one year of Jorge Polanco at a guarenteed $11.25 million (with an option for two years at $22.5 million).

Warm regards,

Seattle Mariner fan since 1995

 

Huh, I hadn't noticed he didn't capitalize the p. But my point is that if the Twins paid both Polo and Gilbert's salary that would save the Ms an additional 4 Million. You know Jerry would do it. He's not scared of throwing some cast off into the 5 spot in the rotation to save some cash and hope to make another trade in a few days. 

[Otaknam]

The Twins will not trade Lewis, a potential superstar and  the personality to be the face of their franchise.  Trading him would be baseball management malfeasance.  I’m not a fan of trading Lee either, as part of a package, though I think that is a possibility, to acquire a solid starting pitcher. Lee seems like a four tool player, and the power may come too. Whatever they do, I hope they don’t get snookered like they did with the Cincinnati trade to acquire Mahle, a disastrous trade by any standard. 

[August J Gloop]

1 minute ago, Otaknam said:

The Twins will not trade Lewis, a potential superstar and  the personality to be the face of their franchise.  Trading him would be baseball management malfeasance.  I’m not a fan of trading Lee either, as part of a package, though I think that is a possibility, to acquire a solid starting pitcher. Lee seems like a four tool player, and the power may come too. Whatever they do, I hope they don’t get snookered like they did with the Cincinnati trade to acquire Mahle, a disastrous trade by any standard. 

The Twins can and should consider trading both Lee and or Lewis in the right deal. Logan Gilbert is definitely not that deal. CES and Steer would have been better spent on someone other than Mahle, for sure, but that's just a general failing of Mahle not the idea. Although my guess is that they wanted to Trade CES and SS and Mahle was the best starter they could get for them. 

And the Twins aren't really out much, since Steer and CES would likely just have played mostly in StPaul last year.  I suppose you could say that Steer would have been a instead of Donny Barrels. Wen Polo got hurt, CES would have come up to join the platoon mess. I doubt Steer would have put up the same numbers for the Twins, since Barrells got 200 fewer PAs than steer in 23. WAR is basically a counting stat for nerds, and you can't just go per PA,but it kinda works like that. if we figure Steers WAR/PA* 450 PA that Barrels got he works out to 1.4 WAR. so they sacrificed .2 WAR by sending Steer away. CED was worth .5 last year and his PT likely would have been similar, so let's say that they lost out on .7 WAR  and 4 Million in Solono Salary last year as a consequence of Mahle being a misfire. Not exactly franchise destroying. I guess it mostly hinges on if you think these two have a future in MLB. (I tend to think CES - yes, Steer, no)

[Twinsrtheworst]

On 1/15/2024 at 9:43 PM, DJL44 said:

I would trade Duran to get Gilbert.

Well yes..so would I.