Can Twins Rookies Avoid the Regression Bug?

[Schmoeman5]

7 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Winston Churchill.

I think Winny would've made a good Twins fan.

I'm pretty sure that wasn't Winston. But yeah. 👍 

[Mike Sixel]

Sophomore slump is a myth....regression to a more expected outcome? That's not.....I don't expect any of them to be quite as good as last year (Wallner was the 2nd best LFer in MLB on a per game basis!), but I don't expect any of them to be bad all year. I expect them all to be above average players at their positions.

[DocBauer]

 

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I guess I'm in general agreement with most here:

1] Lewis has STAR written all over him. That being said, he was SO GOOD last year that regression should be expected. But even 20-30 points here and there and he'd still be performing at an All Star level.

2] Julien's great eye, and mix of patience and aggressiveness bodes well for his future. He will K some due to patience, but also get a bunch of BB as well as finding the pitch he really wants and then driving it. Experience might be the only thing he doesn't have right now. So I can see some regression, at least initially. 

3] I also have the most "concern" about Wallner. But that concern isn't great. At every level he's played he's shown the ability to learn, grow, and adapt. He takes a lot of walks, despite K-ing a fair amount, because he actually has a pretty good eye. (Much like Julien). And I did witness him change his approach with 2 strikes many times in 2023. Regression? At least some? Good chance simply due to youth. But a good eye and great power and previous examples of adapting have me optimistic for his future.

In fact, I'm pretty optimistic about all 3 at this point. I expect bumps in the road to be sure. But they've all shown enough at all levels to display their potential. I don't expect a washout on any of them.

BTW, how about an optimistic addition of AK's wrist problems now gone, and his shoulder injury not being very bad. He's as good as these other 3, and not much older.

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Edited December 27, 2023 by DocBauer
Wrong OP

[DocBauer]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

These comments really cover everything.  I agree with Wallner being the most obvious regression candidate.  I also agree that Correa can salvage a lot with a return to dominance.  Buxton is not one I count - I would like to,

But perhaps my biggest regression choice is Castro.

I absolutely get your choice of Castro.

But I'm going to hold out hope you are wrong. 😀

He's got a lot of ability. And he has the old fashioned attitude I can't help but call "gumption". 

I think he was promoted too quickly and never fully developed by Detroit. Of course, some guys mature at different ages/points as well. He's still only 26yo until April. I'd like to think his improvement was experience, a new opportunity, new coaching, and the right age to put it together. 

Again, you might be right. But I'm also thinking he might IMPROVE rather than regress at this point in his career. If he can build on his past experience, and his uptick from 2023, all he has to do is maintain, or maybe BB just a few more times, K just a few less times, make harder contact on just a few more pitches...just a couple % more...and he's just that much more valuable. 

At not yet 27yo and just coming in to what should be his prime years, I'm hoping for maintenance, or even slight improvement. 

[RpR]

They may or may not have a noticeable dip, such is life in the sport.

If pitchers adapt and adjust to their style faster than they can respond to pitching changes, that could show a true regression.

Unless Julien can learn how to hit left hand pitching, he will be a platoon player, always.

[Dave The Dastardly]

17 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I'm pretty sure that wasn't Winston. But yeah. 👍 

My bad. It was Roosevelt, but he may have been a Yankees fan.

[KirbyDome89]

On 12/26/2023 at 8:41 AM, Riverbrian said:

Royce Lewis: I don't believe he will regress at all. May even get better. Royce looks like a superstar so I fully expect him to continue looking like a superstar. 

The question with Royce is how healthy he will be. He has been injured fairly consistently thus far so I'd imagine the same. Gonna need decent depth to get through the year. With health last year... I believe Royce would have raced past Gunnar Henderson for the rookie of the year award and Gunnar was an unanimous selection.  

Edouard Julien: Julien was our most disciplined hitter last year as a rookie. If he holds his approach at the plate I'll bet on him actually getting better. However... He only had 46 AB's vs Left Handers last year. Posters on Twinsdaily have traded Polanco somewhere to give Julien the 2B job. He only had 46 AB's vs Left Handers last year. He either needs a right handed hitter hand cuffed to him or he will be mixing AB's against left handers into his stats and how that turns out is anyone's guess since he was only given 46 AB's last year vs lefties. He wasn't properly prepared last year for what a lot of us are asking him to do this year. He won't step up and be the hitter a lot of us think he can be until he hits lefties. 

Matt Wallner: The most likely of the three to face the sophomore slump. We need to prepared for the possibility. We need our depth here. Wallner has two options remaining so he can be safely taken off the 26 man if needed. Having Kirilloff, Larnach, Castro and Gordon around is needed just in case. The possibility of Wallner taking a step back next year is one of the reasons that IMO we actually need a big hitter more than we need a starting pitcher if you had to choose between the two.  

 

I think Lewis is the most likely to "regress," at least as far as fan perception is concerned. I'm skeptical that his 2nd half numbers are sustainable, but aside from that it seemed like everything (sans injury) broke right for him last year. Maybe that's just me, but the run on grand slams, the 2 HR playoff game, his spot in the lineup seemingly finding its way into clutch/important moments, all of it felt like it came up roses. I hope you're right, and that's just us watching a budding superstar. Hopefully people realize that if Lewis does "regress," to being a very good player, that is still a massive win for this franchise.

I see Julien as a coin flip. His July wasn't going to last. Idk if his August/September/October finish was the league adjusting without him having enough ABs to counter, or maybe his SSS in the postseason was him trending back up. The lack of ABs (and production) against LHP scares me regardless. If he's a platoon option who struggles to be even average at 2B I'd be disappointed.  

I'm also least confident in Wallner. The profile, the playoffs, maybe it's unfair but I just don't see him as a corner OF fixture. 

[Riverbrian]

47 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I think Lewis is the most likely to "regress," at least as far as fan perception is concerned. I'm skeptical that his 2nd half numbers are sustainable, but aside from that it seemed like everything (sans injury) broke right for him last year. Maybe that's just me, but the run on grand slams, the 2 HR playoff game, his spot in the lineup seemingly finding its way into clutch/important moments, all of it felt like it came up roses. I hope you're right, and that's just us watching a budding superstar. Hopefully people realize that if Lewis does "regress," to being a very good player, that is still a massive win for this franchise.

I see Julien as a coin flip. His July wasn't going to last. Idk if his August/September/October finish was the league adjusting without him having enough ABs to counter, or maybe his SSS in the postseason was him trending back up. The lack of ABs (and production) against LHP scares me regardless. If he's a platoon option who struggles to be even average at 2B I'd be disappointed.  

I'm also least confident in Wallner. The profile, the playoffs, maybe it's unfair but I just don't see him as a corner OF fixture. 

If Lewis has a nice year but not as nice as last year... while technically a regression... I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. I think he's the real deal regardless and health is the only thing that I worry about with Royce. 

Julien... I love watching him hit. He's a fantastic young hitter... but... but... He's a role player no matter how good he is in that role if he isn't allowed or able to hit left handers. He's ceiling is Joc Pederson. 

Someone who is pinch hit for in the 3rd inning... has a very challenging future. The best he can do is Joc Pederson. Might get a one year deal once he reaches free agency. 

Wallner... If he stumbles out of the gates... the Twins have a lot of options to take his playing time so his regression could happen quickly... it could be a last year Miranda-esque type regression. 

Before the calendar hits May. Wallner could go from the we are counting on you opening starter to the Oh Yeah... I forgot about Wallner playing in St. Paul guy.

He best do some damage opening day and let everyone know that he is here to stay.   

[ashbury]

On 12/26/2023 at 6:20 AM, Dave The Dastardly said:

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Winston Churchill.

I think Winny would've made a good Twins fan.

 

23 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I'm pretty sure that wasn't Winston. But yeah. 👍