The Third WAR(P) Gives a New Perspective on the Twins' Present and Future

[Matthew Trueblood]

Two formulations have the lion's share of the market for Wins Above Replacement player metrics on the baseball internet. There's a third robust model out there, though, and studying it can help us see why teams' choices sometimes defy the orthodoxy prescribed by the first two.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Though no longer the top destination for statistically-inclined baseball fans online, Baseball Prospectus was the first site to publish and maintain what we now know as WAR--though they have always called it WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), and continue to do so. They now have a suite of rigorously-derived, state-of-the-art metrics designed to quantify each player's contributions within pitching (Deserved Run Average, or DRA), hitting (Deserved Runs Created, or DRC), and fielding (Defensive Runs Prevented, or DRP). 

Unlike (for instance) Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs's offensive stats, DRC (and its well-adjusted cousin, DRC+) does not rely solely on actual results, adjusted for league and park factors. Unlike either other site's pitching value estimators, DRA (and DRA-) doesn't focus on actual runs allowed or on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Unlike Statcast-fueled expected statistics you can find on Baseball Savant, none of these stats are directly adjusted based on the difference between actual outcomes and the average ones on similar batted balls (or opponents' batted balls).

Instead, these stats take a more granular, less dogmatic approach. Every plate appearance is accounted for in full. Thus, the framework accounts for the level of opposition and the friendliness of the circumstance in every opportunity being evaluated. This can lead to numbers that deviate sharply from what we saw actually happen, and that always makes fans uneasy, but again, teams sometimes make choices we consider inscrutable. It's by digging deeper into the data and seeing when a player's latent talent and actual contribution might differ from their surface-level production that we can start to explain (or even anticipate) those seemingly peculiar calls. Let's look at some places where the Twins' D-suite numbers and Baseball Prospectus WARP tell an importantly different story than the one more widely-embraced stats have been telling.

View full article

[Karbo]

I agree that this rotation should be better than competitive. I think Paddack can plug the hole left by Gray, and Varland can be a good 4 or 5 starter. What concerns me is the lack of depth. We can bet on Paddock having an innings limit, and almost certainly will have injuries at some point. So who covers those spots? Winder? SWR? Headrick? I still think, even with the present staff, they should be good enough to win the division. But saying that, they will surly need some depth.

[Jocko87]

I wouldn't be surprised if the smart teams have a formulation of their own, like a 4th WARp, if you will.  It's not having the data, its knowing which data matters at the proper time.

Interesting point on the relative value of Jeffers big hits.  Like the Jordan Luplow early bounce, we all saw hits off position players and were able to reasonably say, good for him but he ain't quite that good.  Easy to note in the short sample but over a full season they can really blend in.

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think Paddack can plug the hole left by Gray

I think Pablo Lopez could have a season as good as they got from Gray in 2023 but I don't expect anyone else on the roster to pitch that well. Gray had the best season we've seen from a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana. I would give Paddack a less than 5% chance to pitch that well. I would be happy if Paddack could plug the hole left by Maeda.

[ashbury]

The raw stats are what they are and should never be diminished for the actual events that they reflect.  But for analysis, the more formulas, the better.  And the more they disagree, the better - when they mainly agree then maybe you learn something about the players, but when they disagree then that's when you may learn something you didn't expect about the game.  If two versions of a formula always agree, then one can be dispensed with.

[Karbo]

14 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think Pablo Lopez could have a season as good as they got from Gray in 2023 but I don't expect anyone else on the roster to pitch that well. Gray had the best season we've seen from a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana. I would give Paddack a less than 5% chance to pitch that well. I would be happy if Paddack could plug the hole left by Maeda.

I hope you're wrong. I do think Paddack can be a solid #2. I'm not saying he will be a Cy Young candidate like Gray, just a guy to plug the hole .

[old nurse]

Warp does put a new perspective out there as does the presentation of it here

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I hope you're wrong. I do think Paddack can be a solid #2. I'm not saying he will be a Cy Young candidate like Gray, just a guy to plug the hole .

He's never been a solid #2 pitcher before but we can all hope for improvement. His innings will be limited coming off a season of injury rehab.