Sonny and the Cy Young

[umterp23]

Most likely not winning but a quality year, absolutely

[mnfireman]

I think Cole clinched the Cy Young tonight....

[MMMordabito]

9 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I think Cole clinched the Cy Young tonight....

Damn east coast media probably paid the Jays to lay down just to spite Sonny. 😄

[DJL44]

Will Gray make another regular season start on 9/27 or will they skip Lopez and Gray to let them rest for the playoffs?

[USAFChief]

On 9/20/2023 at 9:32 AM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

 ...it seems ludicrous to use expected stats and sabermetrics. Tell me how effective he was, not how effective he should have been. For that reason, I think the voters should lean heavily on IP, ERA, WAR, and WPA for pitchers.

 

WPA is pretty dubious in general, but has little to do with performance. 

And if you want performance based measurements, you don't want fWAR for pitchers. It specifically measures what someone thinks should have happened rather than how many runs were allowed.

[USAFChief]

On 9/20/2023 at 11:59 AM, Mike Sixel said:

ERA? The don't even call errors any more....no.

As for Gray, 100% they offer the QO, and I hope he takes it. They need him.

There's no better measurement of a starter's effectiveness than ERA.

It's literally the point of pitching. 

[USAFChief]

As to the article, you need some serious Midwestern bias to give Sonny the CYA.

Garrett Cole wins, and deservedly so.

[Woof Bronzer]

On 9/20/2023 at 11:32 AM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Sabermetrics are great for looking at future performance and raw talent/ability. When discussing awards and past performances, it seems ludicrous to use expected stats and sabermetrics. Tell me how effective he was, not how effective he should have been. For that reason, I think the voters should lean heavily on IP, ERA, WAR, and WPA for pitchers.

Agree but WAR is perhaps the most egregious "expected stats" projection out there.  Don't get me wrong, WAR has a place in front offices trying to evaluate talent, but it absolutely should not be used for awards.  And don't get me started on WPA.  

I'd also sub in RA/9 for ERA to take the judgement call out of it.  

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Agree but WAR is perhaps the most egregious "expected stats" projection out there. 

WAR would have a lot more meaning to me if Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN, etc... all used the same formula. Cole's bWAR was over 1.0 higher than his fWAR the last time I checked. That being said, I still think Cole wins the CYA based on the stats I've seen.

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

WAR would have a lot more meaning to me if Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN, etc... all used the same formula. Cole's bWAR was over 1.0 higher than his fWAR the last time I checked. That being said, I still think Cole wins the CYA based on the stats I've seen.

I don't get this. You'd like less information to help you make your decisions?

The difference in Cole vs Gray for Fangraphs WAR is Gray has allowed fewer HR than Cole which gives him the advantage in FIP based WAR. Every other calculator has Cole ahead of Gray.

[mnfireman]

12 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't get this. You'd like less information to help you make your decisions?

The difference in Cole vs Gray for Fangraphs WAR is Gray has allowed fewer HR than Cole which gives him the advantage in FIP based WAR. Every other calculator has Cole ahead of Gray.

Not exactly what I said, but I guess I was kind of vague. With WAR values being so different across the baseball sites, people pick and choose which site's value they want to use when making their argument for one player over another.

[SwainZag]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

There's no better measurement of a starter's effectiveness than ERA.

It's literally the point of pitching. 

But it's not.  Having a team full of gold glove players compared to a team of all below average defenders would effect ERA by a ton.  Even having plus defenders at the important positions can shave off several runs over the course of the season.

Two pitchers could have ERA's of 2.75 and 3.25 and pitch exactly the same, but can't change who is on the diamond behind them.

It's like saying there is no better measurement to a hitter's power than HR, then point out that one player plays in a home park with fences 20-30 feet further in every field.  One play could have 10 HR that traveled 331 feet that all left the short porch in right while the other play could have 10 fly outs of 331 feet which were warning track power.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

But it's not.  Having a team full of gold glove players compared to a team of all below average defenders would effect ERA by a ton.  Even having plus defenders at the important positions can shave off several runs over the course of the season.

Two pitchers could have ERA's of 2.75 and 3.25 and pitch exactly the same, but can't change who is on the diamond behind them.

It's like saying there is no better measurement to a hitter's power than HR, then point out that one player plays in a home park with fences 20-30 feet further in every field.  One play could have 10 HR that traveled 331 feet that all left the short porch in right while the other play could have 10 fly outs of 331 feet which were warning track power.

Agree to disagree. Preventing runs is the primary job of a pitcher. Of course some will benefit more or less from defense over the course of a season. Some also pitch in bigger parks and will see their FIP benefit. 

Every measure can be nitpic'd. That said, nothing better captures a starter's job than earned runs allowed.

At the end of the day, scoring or preventing runs is all that actually matters towards winning or losing.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Every measure can be nitpic'd. That said, nothing better captures a starter's job than earned runs allowed.

Runs allowed is actually better.