Is Matt Wallner's Playoff Roster Spot in Jeopardy Amidst Slump?

[Schmoeman5]

To answer the question. It should be.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, GeorgiaBaller said:

Unmentioned is also the fact that Wallner is a less than average fielder.  He has a decent arm, but no instincts, takes poor paths to the ball in the field, and is slow.  He has a knack for making routine plays look difficult---I guess for him, they are. It would take an immense amount of work for him to get to a major league avg level.    

This is the same story with Larnach and Julien---I'm not sure why the Twins can't develop the positional skills for these players in the minors.

For me, if there is not a glaring upside with the bat to counter the poor play in the field, you don't deserve to be in the lineup---unless you are DH.  From the current considerations this season, I would roster Castro instead of Wallner.

 

Wallner looked rough in the field last year and in his first couple call-ups, but I continue to say he looks much, much better now and does have a big arm. 
 

BBRef has him as a marginally plus defender this year. He is not slow! He has a 72 percentile sprint speed. 

[yeahyabetcha]

If he is so bad that Castro or Ludlow are your starting left fielders does he add any value to the bench?

[FlyingFinn]

If Castro starts in the playoffs, teams always have one guy who is a great base stealer on the bench. Preferably, that player is great on defense as well. Stephenson fits this description. (I'm thinking the Twins start Castro in LF and Taylor in CF in this scenario).

As others have said, we will have less pitchers on the roster for Round 1. Teams also like that chance of a HR off the bench. That would be Wallner, and NOT Gallo.

[Tiantwindup]

18 hours ago, Road trip said:

Gosh, for those who don't like Wallner's OF defense, this is not a great solution.  Kirilloff is much slower, and has a very poor arm.  Baseball Savant actually rates his arm below Ben Revere, which I didn't know was even possible.  Kirilloff's LF zone rating trails Wallner substantially.

I like Kirilloff a lot... at first base. 

If it isn't Wallner, my guess is it will likely be Castro against rhp.  Luplow likely will get lefties either way.

K has to be the starter in the outfield…because all of Lewis, Polanco, and Julien need to be infield starters 

[Tiantwindup]

2 minutes ago, Tiantwindup said:

K has to be the starter in the outfield…because all of Lewis, Polanco, and Julien need to be infield starters 

And I forgot to include Solano…among these four 1B, 2B, 3B, DH get covered…

 

4 minutes ago, Tiantwindup said:

K has to be the starter in the outfield…because all of Lewis, Polanco, and Julien need to be infield starters 

Solano…

[Dantes929]

Yes.   His playoff spot is in jeopardy.    I would give him 10 games and evaluate then.   He is somewhat of a Larnach clone imo so would go with whichever is hot.

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, Dantes929 said:

Yes.   His playoff spot is in jeopardy.    I would give him 10 games and evaluate then.   He is somewhat of a Larnach clone imo so would go with whichever is hot.

In a similar number of plate appearances, Larnach and Wallner have similar numbers with the exception of home runs. Wallner’s OBP is bolstered by his HBP propensity. After having a prolonged slump at St. Paul, Larnach is again swinging well. 

[Road trip]

13 hours ago, stringer bell said:

In a similar number of plate appearances, Larnach and Wallner have similar numbers with the exception of home runs. Wallner’s OBP is bolstered by his HBP propensity. After having a prolonged slump at St. Paul, Larnach is again swinging well. 

I mean...yeah?  But that's kind of like saying, "except for the home runs he gives up, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray have similar numbers this year".  The HR's matter (as do the HBP).  Maybe that's not quite what you are arguing...I may be misinterpreting.

Look, I'd be quite happy if Larnach breaks out next spring, learns to hit a MLB breaking ball, wins the LF job, and becomes a solid MLB regular or better.  I have no faith that his time is now based on AAA numbers.  Lot's of guys hit well in AAA.  Andrew Stevenson just tore up AAA this year with numbers better than Larnach's.  Yet while Stevenson has provided some real value on the base paths and on defense, I don't think anybody wants to see him hit in a playoff game based on what we have seen so far.  He's looked overmatched at the plate, just like Larnach did at the MLB level. To me, Larnach remains a future hope, not an October 2023 player barring injuries to the current roster.

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I mean...yeah?  But that's kind of like saying, "except for the home runs he gives up, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray have similar numbers this year".  The HR's matter (as do the HBP).  Maybe that's not quite what you are arguing...I may be misinterpreting.

My point was that they are quite similar, but Wallner has done a far better job of converting mistakes into runs. I don't know if getting hit by an inordinate number of pitches is a great strategy in that getting hit that many times is an invitation to injury. I do agree that AAA stats this year should be taken with a grain of salt. 

Larnach was the better player in spring training and won a spot on the team. After a quick start, he struggled while Wallner did well at St. Paul. Wallner came back to Minnesota later in the summer and had a good run and now he is struggling while Larnach is doing well at St. Paul. I don't think it is established right now who will be the better player going forward, but IMHO neither has stepped forward enough to lay claim to a regular job in MLB and the clock is ticking.