Klaw: Astros reverse course and taking Moran

[gunnarthor]

Insider needed: Houston Astros take Colin Moran over Mark Appel in second mock draft of 2013 - MLB Draft - ESPN

 

Figured it was good enough news to get it's own thread.

 

One way it makes sense for the Astros could be if they think Manaea could slide into the 2nd round where they could give him 3.5m fairly easily.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow...

[BCTwins]

For us cheapskates without access...does KLAW have us taking Bryant, then, or one of the college arms?

[cmb0252]

Stewart over Gray......which confuses me

[gunnarthor]

For us cheapskates without access...does KLAW have us taking Bryant, then, or one of the college arms?

 

Beats me, don't have insider.

[gunnarthor]

Stewart over Gray......which confuses me

 

Wow. I guess its just a hypothetical but if they really happened, I'd be pretty angry.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Stewart over Gray... odd. Similar ceilings with one being a lot closer to the show. Kind of strange.

[Mike Sixel]

I think they would take Gray then......but it is possible they would have a shot at Appel....would they pass twice?

[Badsmerf]

They have to be betting on someone sliding to them. Maybe they will try to work a deal out prior to the draft and tell Manaea's agent they will give him a bunch of money. I could see it working out for them.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Given a projected close upside (as I've read) and ease of signing, it seems Gray is a safer choice than Appel.

Cannot imagine Gray falling to #4.

[InfraRen]

Keith Law's mock draft 2.0

We're just one week away from the Rule 4 draft, and draft boards are starting to take shape. There will still be some adjustments before Thursday night, and I'll have two more mock drafts between now and then.

 

For now, here is my best projection for the top 33 picks in the draft -- the formal first round, plus the six compensatory picks teams received for losing free agents who received qualifying offers this offseason. You'll notice the absence of Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea, who was considered a top-five talent coming into the season. His performance all spring was uneven and he walked off the mound with a hip injury while warming up for his final start a week ago, and no one has a great feel for his status right now. Indiana State's season is over, so scouts won't get another chance to see him before the draft.

 

(To see my the first mock draft from two weeks ago, click here. For a complete look at my ranking of the top 100 draft prospects, click here.)

 

1

Colin Moran

POS: 3B

B/T: R/R

HT: 6-3

WT: 215

School: North Carolina

 

Analysis: I don't think the Astros will make a formal decision on this pick until Thursday, but the buzz within the industry has Houston leaning toward this scenario: Houston takes Moran, knowing his next-best alternative is to go No. 5 to Cleveland, whose slot value is $3,787,000. By doing this, the Astros could offer him $4 million or so and know he'd accept it.

 

The value of the No. 1 pick is $7.2 million, which means the Astros would then have sufficient savings to take first-round talents who fell at picks 40 and 74, something they've already shopped around to some prep players who aren't going in the top 33.

 

They could take Jonathan Gray but won't get as much of a discount if they do. They're not on Kris Bryant or Clint Frazier, and Mark Appel doesn't seem to be one of their top two options.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO Video

 

2

Mark Appel

POS: RHP

HT: 6-5

WT: 215

School: Stanford

 

Analysis: Appel or Gray. I've heard Theo Epstein loves Gray, but overall the Cubs have a real internal debate between the two options. Without a clear inclination toward either guy, I've assigned them the player I think is better.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO Video

 

3

Kris Bryant

POS: 3B/OF

B/T: R/R

HT: 6-5

WT: 215

School: San Diego

 

Analysis: They've been linked to Bryant all spring, and the industry discussion has had them on hitters. But would they take Gray if he were here? I can't see Gray falling far, with a floor at No. 6. (No way does Miami scouting director Stan Meek, an Oklahoma native who played at OU, pass on a Sooner as good as Gray.)

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO Video

 

4

Kohl Stewart

POS: RHP

HT: 6-3

WT: 190

School: St. Pius X (Houston)

 

Analysis: This will be Stewart, Gray or Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire on a well below-slot deal.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO Video

 

5

Jonathan Gray

POS: RHP

HT: 6-4

WT: 239

School: Oklahoma

 

Analysis: I've heard them on Bryant and Moran all spring, and Chris Antonetti flew to Georgia to meet with Clint Frazier earlier this week, but I think they'll take Gray if he falls to them.

SCOUTING REPORT | VIDEO Video

[InfraRen]

Was unaware of the pay-article posting policies, sorry!

[InfraRen]

Ditto.

[cmb0252]

This is pay information so you can't post it here. Only little bits and pieces.

[70charger]

Indians fans are drooling on their keyboards right now.

 

I also don't know why the Twins would choose Stewart over Gray if the latter dropped that far.

[Rick Niedermann]

If Gray drops, ya gotta take him!

[Siehbiscuit]

Given a projected close upside (as I've read) and ease of signing, it seems Gray is a safer choice than Appel.

Cannot imagine Gray falling to #4.

 

I have heard the opposite, actually. Appel's mechanics are regarded as flawless and has two plus pitches and two other that are considered above average. Gray has a better fastball and maybe more upside due to that, but definitely not "safer."

[boylan]

 

I also don't know why the Twins would choose Stewart over Gray if the latter dropped that far.

 

I've read several scouting reports that Stewart has the highest ceiling of the three Appel/Gray/Stewart he's just further away. Gray is still far enough away that time

to majors is not a factor in helping this team and therefore no factor in picking him.

[InfraRen]

The one thing I would take from this - the Twins must REALLY like Stewart if Law projects him over Gray. Law is pretty plugged in. Makes me feel even better about our chances of taking him if Big 3 DO go as previously expected.

[ashbury]

Indians fans are drooling on their keyboards right now.

 

Standard operating procedure for them, is it not.

 

Also:

 

Free advice to the Astros, that.

[nicksaviking]

I still have a hard time buying the Moran talk. A likely 1B with little power potential is nowhere near the top of my wish list. Perhaps all the Moran steam is simply a negotiating tactic with Gray. If KLaw has Gray dropping that far (no way past the Twins!) perhaps he and Boras would be more reasonable in their demands.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The more I think of it the more this sounds fishy.

Bryant? Maybe.

Moran? I find that hard to believe. (some scouts don't like his bat speed)

[gunnarthor]

I want this to be true but it is tough to believe. However, Moran isn't a slouch. He's an on base machine - he's walking about 4x as often as he's striking out. He should have gap power if not HR power.

[cmb0252]

I still have a hard time buying the Moran talk. A likely 1B with little power potential is nowhere near the top of my wish list. Perhaps all the Moran steam is simply a negotiating tactic with Gray. If KLaw has Gray dropping that far (no way past the Twins!) perhaps he and Boras would be more reasonable in their demands.

 

This. I think this is a negotiation tactic to try and get one of the arms at some sort of discount even if it is only a few hundred thousand. The Astros didn't play their hand till the last second last year so I doubt they would do it 3 weeks early this year.

[markos]

This. I think this is a negotiation tactic to try and get one of the arms at some sort of discount even if it is only a few hundred thousand. The Astros didn't play their hand till the last second last year so I doubt they would do it 3 weeks early this year.

 

I agree with you, though they may have decided to play their hand early in order to signal to a bunch of high school players that there will potentially be a lot of money available later in the draft, as to keep their signing demands high. This would potentially increase the number of good players they would have available in the second round and later. This has always been the biggest risk with signing someone under-slot with the plan of spending that money later - there is no guarantee that there will be players worth the extra money once your pick comes around again. Now with the Astros (and to a less extent the Twins) publically saying they are willing to save money for later, any player with leverage (high school or college junior) slotted to go in the last half of the first round could make demands for more than they usually would (say around $2.5M+) and make an extra $500K. It is obviously a risky game to play (for both the team and the players), but the more good players that drop, the better the chances the Astros could snag 2 or 3 of them in the later rounds.

[Pius Jefferson]

Makes me wonder if the Twins didn't become so focused on Stewart that the possibility of Gray being available took them by surprise.

[cmb0252]

The thing is front offices are just now meeting and putting together their draft boards. When Jeremy interviewed Johnson he mentioned it takes about a full week with everyone together to make a 900 person board. I just feel this information was leaked so early that it has to be for negotiation reasons.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Standard operating procedure for them, is it not.

 

Also:

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Free advice to the Astros, that.

 

Lacking a brain and bat speed, yet Houston is considering him 1 overall?

[Einstein]

Who exactly thinks Moran has poor bat speed? He's a solid player, maybe not top 3 worthy but certainly in the next tier.

 

Scouting Report: Colin Moran (3B) | Baseball Prospect Nation

 

Summation: The guy can hit. He has the approach, discipline, simple swing, plate coverage and bat speed to hit for a solid average against high-level professional pitching. He will find the gaps with regularity and he will have 10-15 home run power just by virtue of him driving mistake pitches and some of his doubles carrying over the fence.