Dallas Keuchel Is Who He Is

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think the point here is that Kuechel isn't really a good pitcher anymore and people are afraid that he will be installed as a regular (6th?) starter.  I agree with that 100 percent.  However, if he can smoke and mirror his way through a few decent starts (certainly less than 10, but probably more like 5), then he is a cheap way of keeping them in ballgames and giving a rest to the members of the rotation.  It is definitely not pretty, but he's making it happen so I'm not going to complain about it. 

It could certainly be argued that some of the starters at AAA may deserve a shot at the spot start in MLB instead of running a guy out there who has no upside, but there really isn't anyone breaking down the door at the moment.  I like the plan.  Give him a few starts with a short leash and cut him loose when he is no longer effective.

[Steve Lein]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Over half the balls put in play against him were hit over 88 MPH (11 of 21). Another at 85, and 1 at 83. There were far more than "a few well hit balls." 

To be quite blunt, looking at velocity only on the batted balls like this and using the data to say stuff was well struck, is not the reality.

A line drive at 90 MPH is much different than a ground ball at 90 MPH. One is going to look good, the other is going to look routine.

Launch angles play a role too, and is why there is this thing called "barrels" associated with exit velocity/launch angle. You point out 13 hits that you classify as "well hit," when in actuality, only 6 would be classified as barrels, while at least 10 of them would go into the "poorly hit" category. I'm not saying giving up 6 barrels is great, but it's a lot better than you're making it out to be. He also gave up four singles that didn't leave the bat at higher than 65 MPH.

As a comparison in this game, Zac Gallen, arguably the far better pitcher, also gave up 4 barrels on 14 balls in play. This is my way of telling you each pitcher gave up the exact same percentage of barrels on ball in play. 

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

To be quite blunt, looking at velocity only on the batted balls like this and using the data to say stuff was well struck, is not the reality.

A line drive at 90 MPH is much different than a ground ball at 90 MPH. One is going to look good, the other is going to look routine.

Launch angles play a role too, and is why there is this thing called "barrels" associated with exit velocity/launch angle. You point out 13 hits that you classify as "well hit," when in actuality, only 6 would be classified as barrels, while at least 10 of them would go into the "poorly hit" category. I'm not saying giving up 6 barrels is great, but it's a lot better than you're making it out to be. He also gave up four singles that didn't leave the bat at higher than 65 MPH.

As a comparison in this game, Zac Gallen, arguably the far better pitcher, also gave up 4 barrels on 14 balls in play. This is my way of telling you each pitcher gave up the exact same percentage of barrels on ball in play. 

I have no problem with being blunt, but if you want to do the full context there's even more to it. 

6 barrels in 5 innings is a ton. An absolute ton. Gallen gave up 4 on 14 balls in play in 7 innings. Keuchel gave up 6 on 21 balls in play in 5 innings. That's over 1 barrel per inning for Keuchel, and just over .5 per inning for Gallen. Gallen K'd 8 in 7 innings while Keuchel K'd 0 in 5. Gallen allowed 2 balls in play per inning. Keuchel allowed over 4.

You are not surviving giving up over a barrel an inning while striking nobody out. Yes, the ball on the ground hit hard is less dangerous than the ball in the air hit hard. But when every batter you face either walks or puts the ball in play even those balls on the ground matter. When you're giving up 4 hits on even the soft contact the hard contact is even more concerning when, once again, you're not striking anyone out.

If Keuchel can maintain a 60+% groundball rate he has a better chance of surviving all that hard contact with no, to very few, Ks. He hasn't done that since 2019, and he was K'ing 19% of his batters faced then.

The data is not on Keuchel's side.

[Steve Lein]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I have no problem with being blunt, but if you want to do the full context there's even more to it. 

6 barrels in 5 innings is a ton. An absolute ton. Gallen gave up 4 on 14 balls in play in 7 innings. Keuchel gave up 6 on 21 balls in play in 5 innings. That's over 1 barrel per inning for Keuchel, and just over .5 per inning for Gallen. Gallen K'd 8 in 7 innings while Keuchel K'd 0 in 5. Gallen allowed 2 balls in play per inning. Keuchel allowed over 4.

You are not surviving giving up over a barrel an inning while striking nobody out. Yes, the ball on the ground hit hard is less dangerous than the ball in the air hit hard. But when every batter you face either walks or puts the ball in play even those balls on the ground matter. When you're giving up 4 hits on even the soft contact the hard contact is even more concerning when, once again, you're not striking anyone out.

If Keuchel can maintain a 60+% groundball rate he has a better chance of surviving all that hard contact with no, to very few, Ks. He hasn't done that since 2019, and he was K'ing 19% of his batters faced then.

The data is not on Keuchel's side.

Yup, wasn't saying it was great, and the more balls you allow to be put into play, the worse. But saying everything was "well hit" against Keuchel just wasn't true. Again, 4 of the Diamondbacks hits didn't even exceed 65 MPH.

This is definitely who Keuchel is, but he's also been in the past, and so far with the Twins, one who succeeds despite this deficiency. If the Twins get this Keuchel more than they don't, it's a success, in my opinion.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

What is the exit Velo average at MLB?

 

 

Exit velocity can vary based on whether or not the ball is moisturized with a humidor. From April 7 to May 22, 2021, the average exit velocity was 91.8 miles per hour (147.7 km/h) with a humidor and 92.8 miles per hour (149.3 km/h) without a humidor.

 

I also found another answer of 89 MPH. I honestly don't know which is correct. But going by the eye test on Sunday there were not very many well hit balls. Squibbers and pop outs. I again will say that I can't judge anybody after 1 outing. Do I think he should be a regular in the rotation? No, not yet. And I can't see the Twins cutting back to 12 relievers for any length of time. Maybe when rosters expand trying 6 starters.

Not sure if you've ever used Baseball Savant, but it's pretty cool. It's MLB's public facing data center. I've linked below to some of the pages. Atlanta is the only team averaging over 90 MPH exit velo, and they may break the Twins single season HR record this year. Nobody else over 90. Keuchel definitely gave up some squibbers and pop outs, but he also gave up a lot of balls hit over 90 MPH.

By player sorted highest to lowest avg exit velo. 

By team sorted highest to lowest avg exit velo.

Keuchel's numbers from that game.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Yup, wasn't saying it was great, and the more balls you allow to be put into play, the worse. But saying everything was "well hit" against Keuchel just wasn't true. Again, 4 of the Diamondbacks hits didn't even exceed 65 MPH.

This is definitely who Keuchel is, but he's also been in the past, and so far with the Twins, one who succeeds despite this deficiency. If the Twins get this Keuchel more than they don't, it's a success, in my opinion.

The 4 hits that didn't exceed 65 don't help the case. That just means more guys on base for the hard hit balls. The difference between a 95 MPH grounder and a 95 MPH liner and a 95 MPH fly ball are fractions of an inch on the barrel. When it's being thrown 87 MPH the margin of error is miniscule, and if he leaves that pitch up even a little that 95 MPH grounder people aren't worried about turns into a 95 MPH HR. 

If the Twins get 1 earned in 5 innings more than they don't of course it's a success. The question is how likely is that to happen. And the data from his first game says it's not very likely. Keuchel hasn't succeeded without striking people out. He's not striking people out anymore. He hasn't succeeded in years. The odds of him not improving his stuff in any meaningful way, and not being likely at all to bounce back closer to 20% K rate, makes it very unlikely he is successful moving forward.

Is giving him 3 starts until Ryan is back the end of the world? Absolutely not. Do we have any reason to believe this FO will just cut him loose when Ryan returns? Absolutely not. I mean there's people on these pages talking about him being on the playoff staff. His 60+% groundball rate is the only data point from his first start that gives any hope to him having any sort of success. Every other data point says we're about to see the 5.25-9.25 ERA Keuchel from the last 2 years. Any random AAA pitcher we call up can do that.

[pierre75275]

I think keuchel has a small roll on this team. I don't think anybody believes that he is a lights out pitcher. Maybe....just maybe ...the twins can catch lightning in a bottle and use him for 6-8 starts and have him eat 30-45 innings out of the starting rotation and  skip/rest the other 5 pitchers in the rotation to make sure they are fresh for the rest of the yr/playoffs.

A month or 6 weeks from now he  gets released with some heartfelt thanks for a job well done and everybody moves on.

Or maybe they keep him for bullpen veteran exp. 

But it seems to me he is on borrowed time at the big league level with the twins.

[nicksaviking]

This team just wasn't built to support ground ball starters. The outfield defense is solid, but with a sinkerball pitcher starting, now you're going to have to choose to run out the better offense at the expense of getting outs the way Keuchel likes them, or you're going to run out an offense that will force Keuchel to win a bunch of 2-1 games.

[MGX]

Wow, this is a lot of analysis over 5 innings of pitching.

Keuchel is likely to stay with the Twins on a start by start basis. The first start worked out very well regardless of the analysis. He was up against one of the better pitchers in the game & we got the W, that's what counts. Next time out maybe he gets lit up, but every game that we get from him that works out well is an unexpected bonus. 

[Matt Braun]

22 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Typical response.  One start, knee jerk reaction, blow it up.

Or, perhaps, maybe, this is an observation based on 2022 and his time at AAA.

[Twins GFP]

1 minute ago, Matt Braun said:

Or, perhaps, maybe, this is an observation based on 2022 and his time at AAA.

Don't read this site very much?

BTW - He was killer in AAA, bad example.

[John Belinski]

A pitcher that doesn't walk batters and gets a lot of ground ball outs will win a lot of games no matter how many strikeouts he gets. I think the Twins had lost too many games when a walked batter scores the winning run. Often the walked batter has a very low batting average. When a batter has one chance in 5 of getting a hit why would any good pitcher walk him? Is the catcher calling for a pitch on the edge of the strike zone or is the pitcher just missing the strike zone? With a 3 ball count to a low average batter why doesn't the pitcher throw a pitch in the strike zone even if the pitch has to be right down the middle? Game after game the Twins pitchers walk batters with low batting averages and that has to stop. Is the manager calling the pitches?

[USAFChief]

On 8/9/2023 at 7:56 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Typical response.  One start, knee jerk reaction, blow it up.

My knee is jerking badly tonight.

[Twins GFP]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

My knee is jerking badly tonight.

Not changing my stance after one start and killer MiLB numbers...

One start is knee jerk, two you begin to question.  Another rough one and he may not get a fourth with a team in a playoff hunt.