Cardinals 7, Twins 3: Ryan Has Another Rough Outing, St. Louis Evens the Series

[gunnarthor]

I don't think we should overreact. We should remember what Ryan is - he's not an ace. In old nomenclature, he's a back of the rotation starter (although that usually ticks people off). That's a good thing, it's a level above the journeyman pitcher. He's a guy who, at the end of the year,  is going to give an ERA+ of somewhere around 100-105, solid amount of innings, and be worth something around 2 WAR. That means, over the course of 30 starts, he's going to have some gems and he'll have a few stinkers. And, usually, pitchers have streaks of good starts and then some bad starts. He's managed to give the Twins 12 quality starts, which is pretty impressive in today's game (that's 15th in baseball). 

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, Peter said:

Is it time to sit/put joe in bullpen or on DL? League has him figured out. To many home runs given up last night and this can’t continue. Any chance of us getting kuechel back and put in rotation?

Would anyone be opposed to sending Ryan to  St. Paul for two weeks? Perhaps give him one start with a week of rest and plan to bring him back after the minimum amount of games. That would give the Twins the opportunity to see what Keuchel has left. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't think we should overreact. We should remember what Ryan is - he's not an ace. In old nomenclature, he's a back of the rotation starter (although that usually ticks people off). That's a good thing, it's a level above the journeyman pitcher. He's a guy who, at the end of the year,  is going to give an ERA+ of somewhere around 100-105, solid amount of innings, and be worth something around 2 WAR. That means, over the course of 30 starts, he's going to have some gems and he'll have a few stinkers. And, usually, pitchers have streaks of good starts and then some bad starts. He's managed to give the Twins 12 quality starts, which is pretty impressive in today's game (that's 15th in baseball). 

I certainly had...have...higher hopes for Ryan than "back of the rotation" starter. And if that's what he ends up, that's not "a good thing."

For one thing, nobody should ever want a "back of the rotation: starter even IN their rotation. 

 

 

[adjacent]

Regarding Ryan and pitching, I think there is an opportunity here. Move Alcala or De León to the 60-day IL, put Ryan on the IL with whatever, and call up Keuchel right in time before you have to release him. If he get crushed, you release Keuchel then.  Does it make sense?

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

I am hoping this is just a painful learning experience for Ryan.  He is serving up meatballs left and right.  Yesterday it was also with plenty of runners on for a couple.  The issue is he is not missing as many bats as he did early in year.  He is clearly missing in the zone, and the ones just on the edge hitters are either fouling off or staying off getting the ball called. 

Joe really needs to develop a good secondary pitch.  Early in the year they were working, but the league has adjusted, he needs to adjust again.  I still have faith in Joe, but right now hitters are just teeing off on the fast ball in all counts. They have no respect for any off-speed pitch, and Joe is not locating his fastball down.  The problem is his go to is fastball up, which has worked, but since his fastball down is not locating at the knees, if the pitch starts low, the hitter assumes it is a breaking ball and adjusts.  Until he can mix up the location, and do it well, with the fastball he will continue to struggle. 

Weird thing is that he is missing bats. His K rate sky rocketed in July. Since his shutout (so the stretch where he's been brutal) he has 52 Ks in 32.1 innings. For comparison he had 36 Ks in 32 April innings. 40 in 33 innings in May. 29 in 31.2 innings in June. He's missing bats and getting Ks at his best rate of the season. But when they hit it they crush it now.

[insagt1]

quite often when a team starts going bad you can blame it either the pitching isn't working or the hitters aren't producing. In the Twins case, its a total team misfire. Pitching and hitting are letting them down routinely. Some nights they can hit but the pitchers can't get the outs and other nights its the opposite.

How can you deal with this? Right now, this isn't a full functioning team but the division is there for the taking. However once they play go head to head with Cleveland its all over. Twins can't beat the Guardians when it matters, and like last September, that will be our undoing. (unless something drastically changes)

[MABB1959]

As a bit of defense for the pitchers, it would be nice if the offense could score more runs to give the pitcher a nice cushion to work with

[MABB1959]

10 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

However once they play go head to head with Cleveland its all over. Twins can't beat the Guardians when it matters, and like last September, that will be our undoing. (unless something drastically changes)

Doesn't seem like Cleveland wants it either.  Going for a draft pick?

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, Peter said:

Is it time to sit/put joe in bullpen or on DL? League has him figured out. To many home runs given up last night and this can’t continue. Any chance of us getting kuechel back and put in rotation?

He's not injured, he's just ineffective. You can't go on the injured list for being bad at baseball.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, insagt1 said:

quite often when a team starts going bad you can blame it either the pitching isn't working or the hitters aren't producing. In the Twins case, its a total team misfire. Pitching and hitting are letting them down routinely. Some nights they can hit but the pitchers can't get the outs and other nights its the opposite.

How can you deal with this? Right now, this isn't a full functioning team but the division is there for the taking. However once they play go head to head with Cleveland its all over. Twins can't beat the Guardians when it matters, and like last September, that will be our undoing. (unless something drastically changes)

I have no idea if they can beat Cleveland "when it matters" this year, but that's a weird narrative in general. They certainly couldn't beat them last year, but they were 11-8 against them in 2021. Including going 6-4 against them in the second half. They're 3-4 against them this year in 7 incredibly close games. Completely collapsing against them last year has nothing to do with how they'll play them down the stretch this year.

[gunnarthor]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I certainly had...have...higher hopes for Ryan than "back of the rotation" starter. And if that's what he ends up, that's not "a good thing."

For one thing, nobody should ever want a "back of the rotation: starter even IN their rotation. 

 

 

Again, it's really not a bad thing. Pitching, even now, is so thin, that "back of the rotation" starters are good. Some call them 4/5 starters. Basically, they are league average pitchers who can throw a sizeable number of innings. I was trying to be nice and respectful to Ryan.

 

[insagt1]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I have no idea if they can beat Cleveland "when it matters" this year, but that's a weird narrative in general. They certainly couldn't beat them last year, but they were 11-8 against them in 2021. Including going 6-4 against them in the second half. They're 3-4 against them this year in 7 incredibly close games. Completely collapsing against them last year has nothing to do with how they'll play them down the stretch this year.

whats weird about it? Last year Twins had their own fate in their hands in September but couldn't beat the team that was challenging them....hardly at all and that was that. So If the same opportunity arises again, can Twins beat the guardians with the season on the line (when it matters most) Its the situation, and yeah because they lost to them last year doesn't mean they will repeat that scenario. But if it comes down to head to head...what will they do? Close games don't mean a thing unless you get the 'W'. You want to be able to beat your closest competitor, right?

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

whats weird about it? Last year Twins had their own fate in their hands in September but couldn't beat the team that was challenging them....hardly at all and that was that. So If the same opportunity arises again, can Twins beat the guardians with the season on the line (when it matters most) Its the situation, and yeah because they lost to them last year doesn't mean they will repeat that scenario. But if it comes down to head to head...what will they do? Close games don't mean a thing unless you get the 'W'. You want to be able to beat your closest competitor, right?

What's weird is speaking in certainty like you did. You didn't say "it's all going to come down to how they play against Cleveland, what will they do?" You said "once they play go head to head with Cleveland its all over. Twins can't beat the Guardians when it matters, and like last September, that will be our undoing." 

And last September they had half their roster on the IL, I hope that isn't the case this year.

[insagt1]

Its ok to have opinions here I thought? My 'opinion' is that if they can't beat Cleveland, no matter when, they won't win the division. Injuries...won't mean a thing if after 9 innings its not a 'W'. Just my feelings. We'll have to see how it plays out. You certainly don't have to agree or analyze my words. Until they can demonstrate that they can beat their closest competitor, they probably won't succeed.

But you and I don't have crystal balls. Maybe they will win, maybe they won't. Based on what I have seen so far, I lean towards they won't, and really hope I'm wrong.