Draft Preview: Five Outfielders I'm Watching

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We’ve covered all the positions in this series, so we’re going to circle back and look at three under-the-radar outfielders as well as two outfielders that are very much on the radar.

The term “personal cheeseball” (better represented by #personalcheeseball) originated over twenty years ago in the Baseball America offices when former writer and current Twins scout John Manuel started using it as “shorthand for a personal favorite that does not reflect the popular consensus.” 

And, again, as a warning, my radar isn’t reflective of any single team’s preferences or draft board. 

Chase Davis, Arizona: Davis being projected as a late first-round pick or comp round pick is baffling to me. He put up ridiculous numbers with in-game power while walking more than he struck out. Even the behind-the-curtain numbers are really good. He may be a victim of a strong draft, but if a team gets him after #20 it will be an absolute steal. 

 

Duce Robinson, Arizona prep (committed to USC): But it’s a lot more complicated than that. Robinson isn’t committed to playing baseball at USC. He’s going to be a Trojan tight end. But he does sound committed to playing pro baseball… too. Whatever team drafts him - if he signs - will only have Robinson from spring training through July. He’ll then spend the rest of the year being a college football player. He hasn’t played a ton of baseball, but when he has he’s impressed. There’s certainly enough there for a team to take a risk, because there’s high-reward upside.

Wyatt Langford, Florida: Langford is clearly an on-the-radar player in this draft. But probably underrated in that everything he does is in the shadow of Dylan Crews. This is an extremely strong draft and in a normal year, Langford has a strong debate to go first overall. There’s been so much talk about Crews and Paul Skenes that Langford hasn’t gotten the pub he deserves. Unfortunately, he’s probably gone before your favorite team drafts at #5.

Over the past twenty years, teams have tried to find value in skills that other teams don’t. It was the basis for Moneyball. It’s been analytic-driven, for sure. From on-base percentage to exit velocities and spin rates. I suggested many years ago that I thought speed and stolen bases would become the next “market deficiency.” It hasn’t come to full fruition yet, but we’ve seen an uptick in teams stealing bases and I expect that trend to continue.

Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt: I’ve written about Bradfield a few times and for good reason. He offers 80 speed and can be the catalyst for the next trendy idea to take the league by storm: super speed. Bradfield is not a power/speed combination player, so there will be plenty of opportunities to steal second (and third) base… assuming he can reach base. He’s a better-fielding version of Billy Hamilton as a floor and even as he ages - and Hamilton has - his speed should be a weapon for a long time. Tampa Bay has stolen 14 more bases than any other team, but doesn’t draft until nineteenth overall. I expect Bradfield to be long gone by then. I think the A’s (#6) and Reds (#7) to the Diamondbacks (#12) are the sweet spot for Bradfield.

Zyhir Hope, Virginia prep (committed to North Carolina): Hope has elite speed. But the rest is, well… a lot of hope. I’d imagine teams are trying to get Hope in for private workouts to get a better gauge on him as a player and if someone believes enough in the bat, they may be willing to buy him out of what’s expected to be a strong commitment to the Tar Heels. And if not, he could always pitch too.

Next week will be the final installment of the series. We’ll look at some pitchers who have raised their stock.

There are plenty of others that could have been listed here. This isn’t to say anyone is or isn’t going to be a good draft or baseball prospect. If you have your own local #personalcheeseball, leave in the comments!

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I'm hoping for Langford at #5. I don't know if that is possible, but he would be a homerun pick

[Dman]

There are going to be some good players left at number 34 this year and likely even all the way to their pick at 49.  I like all the outfielders you listed I just hope the Twins find players that can be difference makers in the top 50 picks.  There are going to be some tough decisions to be made this year at least early in the draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Give me one of the consensus top 5 (or Dollander), then the best SS / CF available (or C if there is one there), than pitching and OF. Pitching and OF.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

For #5 Give me Langford based on the Twins tendencies.  

As to #34 - It is a bit unorthodox and a bit of a gamble that he can remain in the outfield.  Even still he could be a decent 1st baseman - Nolan Schanuel.   It does feel a bit like a Sabato all over again with the upside he could play in the outfield.  Schanuel is probably the 3rd best bat in the draft based of this years stats.   He has a 60 hit tool,  and has an extremely good eye which results in a high OBP.   he had 3 home runs against Florida so its not like he has not performed against better pitching.  

If you could end up with Langford (or my personal favorite Skenes)  and Schanuel - that would be a heck of a start to the draft.  

[purplesoldier4u]

Enrique Bradfield Jr.!

[sftwinsfan]

I just hope they take one of those top 5 guys and don't try to get cute. No guarantee a player will be there when you draft next, just take the best available when you're picking that high. Especially in a year with a top 5 this strong, rare opportunity. if they do want to be creative, I'm willing to sign for well under slot and can strike out at least 3 times per game. 

 

[DocBauer]

Really appreciate all of these pre-draft threads! Thanks again to everyone who puts in their time and energy. Obviously it's a labor of love.

Going to briefly re-wind a bit. Nobody in their right mind should pass on Crews or Skenes past 3 or 4.  So they are simply off my board and wish list. I am starting to believe there is a reasonable chance Langford MIGHT slip to #5 for the Twins. 

A] SOMEONE might play the "underslot" game in order to save $ for a comp or #2 pick, especially to nab a top HS player/arm later that might seem a tough draw away from college. Sure wouldn't be the first time we've seen that the past few years. 

B] High quality arms are a tremendously valuable asset to EVERYONE. I can EASILY see a team before the Twins looking at Dollander...top 1-3 when the season began...and all his velocity and potential, and simply decide stuff, and track record, makes him too enticing to pass up. He lost some control this season but still had some great numbers? Fine. A few tweaks to his mechanics and suddenly you have that top 1-3 pre-season arm in your organization. 

C] While HS arms are the most volatile potential draftees, perhaps followed by SS that might not stick, HS OF's with tremendous tools are the safest HS prospects to draft. Jenkins and Clark provide a pair of tremdous teenage prospects with very high ceilings, one with more power, one with more speed. Both worthy of being drafted in the top 5. To me, it's not hard to see one of the 4 teams drafting in front of the Twins salivating over the younger Jenkins and Clark, and liking their ceiling better. And it's hard to say they'd be wrong.

Considering my opinion of "no chance" for Crews or Skeens...a pretty safe bet...I'm hoping for Langford, Clark as my second option, though it's close, and I'm torn between Jenkins or Dollander for my 3rd choice. 

I DON'T want the Twins to overthink this. And I believe they should JUMP on Langford if he's available at 5. And IF chalk happens, they should be looking at Jenkins, Clark, or Dollander sitting there at the 5 spot. Personally, I'm hoping for Clark to be available. I'd sacrifice the pure power that Jenkins has over Clark to have the more TRUE CF option, which is lacking in the system. 

But honestly, would Dollander be a bad pick? I mean, I want the VERY BEST prospect to be selected, PERIOD. But as I stated previously in regard to other teams possible decisions, Dollander had all of the criteria to be a very smart choice. Right now he's projected somewhere around 7-ish. If you're the Twins, and you have an arm of this ability, from a kid with a great frame, great stuff, great projectability sitting there who might just need a couple of tweaks to get his control back, do you pass on him?

Langford, then Clark, and then I'm torn on Jenkins vs Dollander.

NOTE: I've heard whispers that Clark might have an attitude issue. And I despise gossip. Is this a real thing? Or just some confidence vs cocky thing imagined or blown out of proportion? Anyone have any feedback?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

NOTE: I've heard whispers that Clark might have an attitude issue. And I despise gossip. Is this a real thing? Or just some confidence vs cocky thing imagined or blown out of proportion? Anyone have any feedback?

I haven't heard specific issues on Clark attitude issues,  however what has been stated is of the 2 high school kids Jenkins is just a superb individual with good family background (think Mauer).   So when you are looking at the 2 between that Jenkins I have heard gets the slight leg up but that is not to say there has been anything negative about Clark I can find.  

[Jeremy Nygaard]

On 6/8/2023 at 8:07 PM, DocBauer said:

NOTE: I've heard whispers that Clark might have an attitude issue. And I despise gossip. Is this a real thing? Or just some confidence vs cocky thing imagined or blown out of proportion? Anyone have any feedback?

The most specific thing I've heard is concerns about his social-media presence and how he portrays himself.

That seems weird to me. But, on the flip side, no one is saying *anything* publicly unless they've heard that more than once, if that makes sense.

I probably wouldn't pay any mind to it, but the Twins really value character. So if they think he's even a 40 character guy, they probably don't take him... at least that's my gut reaction.