What would you give up for player x?

[Trov]

I wanted to ask what would people be willing to trade for a player x.  I feel sometimes we look at names and not look at actual output, even more so recent output when we value certain guys.  So if a team came offering the following pitcher, how much do feel they would be worth.  

Career numbers: 

He is in his 6th season, 1 more year of team control after this one.  39 and 23 record.  3.29 ERA 572 innings pitched, FIP 3.04 11.3 k/9 with 4.48 k to bb ratio.  

Last season numbers:

12 and 8 record, 2.94 ERA 202 innings pitched FIP 3.14, 10.8 k/9 with 4.76 k to bb ratio.  One note, from August on, he was 4-4 record, 77 innings, with about a 4.00 ERA about 9.7 k/9 and similar walk ratio

This year, 4-4 record 3.97 ERA, 57 innings pitched, FIP 4.81 8.1 k/9 and 2.43 k to bb ratio.  

I am sure some may figure who I am talking about without looking, but the main question is first do you look at career numbers and hope he will get back to career numbers, so willing to give up more? They are good career numbers.  Do look at the last 2 months of last year and what he has done this year and think that is the real guy going forward and offer much less? Do you think he falls somewhere in middle?  If you did obtain him, where do you think he should slot in rotation? 

I personally, think the pitcher is trending in the wrong direction and do not have faith him returning to his peak, but I could be way off and he could bounce back to peak.  What would you be willing to risk? 

[Riverbrian]

26 minutes ago, Trov said:

I wanted to ask what would people be willing to trade for a player x.  I feel sometimes we look at names and not look at actual output, even more so recent output when we value certain guys.  So if a team came offering the following pitcher, how much do feel they would be worth.  

Career numbers: 

He is in his 6th season, 1 more year of team control after this one.  39 and 23 record.  3.29 ERA 572 innings pitched, FIP 3.04 11.3 k/9 with 4.48 k to bb ratio.  

Last season numbers:

12 and 8 record, 2.94 ERA 202 innings pitched FIP 3.14, 10.8 k/9 with 4.76 k to bb ratio.  One note, from August on, he was 4-4 record, 77 innings, with about a 4.00 ERA about 9.7 k/9 and similar walk ratio

This year, 4-4 record 3.97 ERA, 57 innings pitched, FIP 4.81 8.1 k/9 and 2.43 k to bb ratio.  

I am sure some may figure who I am talking about without looking, but the main question is first do you look at career numbers and hope he will get back to career numbers, so willing to give up more? They are good career numbers.  Do look at the last 2 months of last year and what he has done this year and think that is the real guy going forward and offer much less? Do you think he falls somewhere in middle?  If you did obtain him, where do you think he should slot in rotation? 

I personally, think the pitcher is trending in the wrong direction and do not have faith him returning to his peak, but I could be way off and he could bounce back to peak.  What would you be willing to risk? 

I know who you are talking about. I'd love to have him because I think he is one of the best in baseball.

First off... I can't imagine a scenario where his team would trade him. They would have their own playoff to get ready for although they did surprise us last year in the same situation... so if they were to trade... they would probably want young major leaguers back. 

Given that... the price would be extremely high. Probably Duran and Lewis together. 

Given that... Our pitching has really good depth and we have a more acute need offensively and in the bullpen. 

I wouldn't pay that price even if he would be one of the first guys that I'd choose to anchor my rotation. I think he is incredible. 

 

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, Trov said:

I wanted to ask what would people be willing to trade for a player x.  I feel sometimes we look at names and not look at actual output, even more so recent output when we value certain guys.  So if a team came offering the following pitcher, how much do feel they would be worth.  

Career numbers: 

He is in his 6th season, 1 more year of team control after this one.  39 and 23 record.  3.29 ERA 572 innings pitched, FIP 3.04 11.3 k/9 with 4.48 k to bb ratio.  

Last season numbers:

12 and 8 record, 2.94 ERA 202 innings pitched FIP 3.14, 10.8 k/9 with 4.76 k to bb ratio.  One note, from August on, he was 4-4 record, 77 innings, with about a 4.00 ERA about 9.7 k/9 and similar walk ratio

This year, 4-4 record 3.97 ERA, 57 innings pitched, FIP 4.81 8.1 k/9 and 2.43 k to bb ratio.  

I am sure some may figure who I am talking about without looking, but the main question is first do you look at career numbers and hope he will get back to career numbers, so willing to give up more? They are good career numbers.  Do look at the last 2 months of last year and what he has done this year and think that is the real guy going forward and offer much less? Do you think he falls somewhere in middle?  If you did obtain him, where do you think he should slot in rotation? 

I personally, think the pitcher is trending in the wrong direction and do not have faith him returning to his peak, but I could be way off and he could bounce back to peak.  What would you be willing to risk? 

I know who that is, and agree with @Riverbrian that I'd love to have him, but he will likely cost a ton. I don't think the team is good enough, or the farm deep enough, to give up what it'd take.

As for the general idea of deciding what type of player someone will be moving forward there's a lot that goes into it. Knowing who this is, and his general attitude/mental state entering this season I'd give a little weight to him just not being where he needed to be in his head as the year started. I'd also look at his underlying data and see if I can get an idea on why his numbers haven't been the same recently. Having another year of control would be a nice bonus, and more motivating to get him. 

I like what you're getting at here, though, and think it's the way teams should operate. "Double blind" scouting. Obviously in person scouts know who they're watching, but their reports should be put in the system without player names. Data analytics teams should be compiling data blindly. They should be matched up and presented to the decision makers as "Player 974395794" and looked at that way first to get as unbiased an opinion as possible to start. From there people need to know who it is as they deal with agents, background "investigations," etc., but I like the idea of viewing things blindly initially to reduce the bias as much as possible.

[Trov]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I know who that is, and agree with @Riverbrian that I'd love to have him, but he will likely cost a ton. I don't think the team is good enough, or the farm deep enough, to give up what it'd take.

As for the general idea of deciding what type of player someone will be moving forward there's a lot that goes into it. Knowing who this is, and his general attitude/mental state entering this season I'd give a little weight to him just not being where he needed to be in his head as the year started. I'd also look at his underlying data and see if I can get an idea on why his numbers haven't been the same recently. Having another year of control would be a nice bonus, and more motivating to get him. 

I like what you're getting at here, though, and think it's the way teams should operate. "Double blind" scouting. Obviously in person scouts know who they're watching, but their reports should be put in the system without player names. Data analytics teams should be compiling data blindly. They should be matched up and presented to the decision makers as "Player 974395794" and looked at that way first to get as unbiased an opinion as possible to start. From there people need to know who it is as they deal with agents, background "investigations," etc., but I like the idea of viewing things blindly initially to reduce the bias as much as possible.

That is really what I was getting at, is when we throw out names people react to the name, but may not always look at the whole player.  We can disagree about a player going forward, and as I said, I would take him for the right price, just like any player, but as Riverbrian said, it is going to cost much more than I would want to give up, hoping he returns to his one very good season.  My issue with this player is that he really had 1.5 to 2 good seasons, depending on how you count 2020.  Up to 2020 he was ehh, and last year he was just okay down the stretch, not someone I want to give up top prospects for. Sometimes that may be fatigue, or injury, but when he comes out the gate this year just as average, has a bWAR of 0.1 so far. 

Pitchers always scare me because they will fall off cliffs very quickly, and some learn how to change up their style, but that takes time most of the time, and some just fall apart never to be anywhere close to what they were.  When a guy like this has only 1.5 amazing season out of his 6 seasons played I am not sold on them as they are the top end normally. 

One pitcher I point to a lot is Tim Lincecum, who from age 24 thru 27 seasons he was one of best in baseball, winning 2 cy youngs at 24 and 25.  Looking like a future HOF, then age 28 season he lost it, and was never anywhere close to what he was prior to that.  No saying player x above will be that, and I have not looked at all the underlying numbers, do not scout like that, but there is fear he may never regain what he did a couple of years ago. 

[IndianaTwin]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I know who that is, and agree with @Riverbrian that I'd love to have him, but he will likely cost a ton. I don't think the team is good enough, or the farm deep enough, to give up what it'd take.

As for the general idea of deciding what type of player someone will be moving forward there's a lot that goes into it. Knowing who this is, and his general attitude/mental state entering this season I'd give a little weight to him just not being where he needed to be in his head as the year started. I'd also look at his underlying data and see if I can get an idea on why his numbers haven't been the same recently. Having another year of control would be a nice bonus, and more motivating to get him. 

I like what you're getting at here, though, and think it's the way teams should operate. "Double blind" scouting. Obviously in person scouts know who they're watching, but their reports should be put in the system without player names. Data analytics teams should be compiling data blindly. They should be matched up and presented to the decision makers as "Player 974395794" and looked at that way first to get as unbiased an opinion as possible to start. From there people need to know who it is as they deal with agents, background "investigations," etc., but I like the idea of viewing things blindly initially to reduce the bias as much as possible.

I prefer Player 8675309. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I prefer Player 8675309. 

I don't disagree, and if it was a choice of just 1 I'd obviously take him. Not sure how available he is, though.

[tony&rodney]

Trades depend on what a team is asking for in return (obviously). In this case our neighbors are unlikely to be seeking to trade their best starting pitcher. Always keep the lines of communication open for ways in which to improve the roster.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Trades depend on what a team is asking for in return (obviously). In this case our neighbors are unlikely to be seeking to trade their best starting pitcher. Always keep the lines of communication open for ways in which to improve the roster.

In season, maybe, but I'd be pretty surprised if they went into 2024 with him on their roster.

[dex8425]

I don't know who the player is. That said, for 1.5 years of team control, and better stats and track record than Pablo Lopez and Tyler Mahle, it would take a haul to get this pitcher. Like Lewis and Duran, or Lee and Miranda. I wouldn't do it. 

[dex8425]

Oh wait, I figured out who it is. Would definitely take a haul to get him. But, his team should've traded him before the season started when his value was higher. 

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

In season, maybe, but I'd be pretty surprised if they went into 2024 with him on their roster.

Me too. I'm not sure the return will be so amazing in the offseason, especially if said player is still insistent on becoming a free agent.

[mnfireman]

Back to talking about trying to trade for this guy!! Not gonna happen, they will want more than the team should be willing to pay for 1.5 years.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Never say never for the right trade, but this one seems unlikely due to the high cost in prospects/players involved.  The good news is that while his ceiling may be a mirage, he does seem to have a pretty high floor, so it's doubtful he would implode completely.  At this point, however, I'm much more concerned about the offense.  While it would be great to have a leadoff hitter with a .400 OBA, 40 steal speed, and 25 homer power, I think it's a little more complicated than that.  Getting the "right" player who can be a sparkplug  could be the best deal, even if it's not a big name. 

[Puckett34]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I prefer Player 8675309. 

I've heard he's got "it", he's got it.