Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

[mikelink45]

Before we shout - 4 Kings, let's see the performance on the field.  Too many question marks to start the bragging now. 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

…. Ober needs to remain stretched out, even if that means he does begin the year in AAA. He's too good to be there, but he's too important for the season, and the future, to suddenly begin messing with his preparation and usage. Despite his injury last year, the hard work put in during 2021 to refine his delivery seems to have paid off. His IP this year will probably still be monitored, but I'd love to see him hit the 120 mark.…

 

Your second sentence is the best synopsis of how I feel on Ober as well. And yes, ending up with about 22 starts averaging 5.4 innings gets him right in that 120 innings range, which feels good.

[Schmoeman5]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Oddly, the best part of the team! Five number 2 starters, with Ober, Varland, and SWR in AAA? That's so much better than previous years.

Once again. Which one of the Twins starters would be a #2 starter on Houston, New York, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, or Seattle. And those are the teams that the Twins have to beat for a title run. I'll add the Red Sox and White Sox too. Let's Just say they have 5 solid starters who will give them an opportunity to win when they pitch. There's going to be bad outings and good ones. If they had 5 #2 pitchers who go 16-10 they'd win the division going away. 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Once again. Which one of the Twins starters would be a #2 starter on Houston, New York, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, or Seattle. And those are the teams that the Twins have to beat for a title run. I'll add the Red Sox and White Sox too. Let's Just say they have 5 solid starters who will give them an opportunity to win when they pitch. There's going to be bad outings and good ones. If they had 5 #2 pitchers who go 16-10 they'd win the division going away. 

Go to fangraphs and sort by starting pitchers. You'll be surprised how good this group is, apparently. If you judge then by win loss record, I doubt we can agree at all. 

[Schmoeman5]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Go to fangraphs and sort by starting pitchers. You'll be surprised how good this group is, apparently. If you judge then by win loss record, I doubt we can agree at all. 

I just did that and I used Tampa Bay. Their starting 5 is McClanahan Glasnow Eflin Rasmussen and then either Springs or Fleming,  So which Twins pitcher is a #2 on that staff. Stop with the Fan Graphs.

[Schmoeman5]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Go to fangraphs and sort by starting pitchers. You'll be surprised how good this group is, apparently. If you judge then by win loss record, I doubt we can agree at all. 

I only threw that 16-10 record out there because #2 starters on good teams are around 14-8 15-9 16-10 type records who throw close to 200 innings era low 3s. And yes unlike the dude Kenny on MLB Network who says wins and losses are overrated, the same guy who says RBI are overrated.  I'll stick with the eye test

[gunnarthor]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Go to fangraphs and sort by starting pitchers. You'll be surprised how good this group is, apparently. If you judge then by win loss record, I doubt we can agree at all. 

What are you looking at on fangraphs? Last years stats or some projection?

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

What are you looking at on fangraphs? Last years stats or some projection?

Either. It was more a pithy reply to a post that doesn't take any realistic definition of a number two pitcher

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I only threw that 16-10 record out there because #2 starters on good teams are around 14-8 15-9 16-10 type records who throw close to 200 innings era low 3s. And yes unlike the dude Kenny on MLB Network who says wins and losses are overrated, the same guy who says RBI are overrated.  I'll stick with the eye test

How many pitchers threw 200 innings last year? 8 is the answer, btw  Eye test? How many non twins games do you watch, so you can compare pitchers? 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many pitchers threw 200 innings last year? 8 is the answer, btw  Eye test? How many non twins games do you watch, so you can compare pitchers? 

More pith? Lol

[Schmoeman5]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many pitchers threw 200 innings last year? 8 is the answer, btw  Eye test? How many non twins games do you watch, so you can compare pitchers? 

I said close to 200 innings.  If they have 30 starts an average of 6 innings per start that's 180 innings. That's CLOSE to 200. And I watch as much non Twins baseball as I can. I live where I have Bally coverage of the Reds and Braves. So I would say I watch CLOSE to 300 games a year. I watched all of the WBC, not just USA. And you didn't answer the question mr stats. Which Twin pitcher would slot in #2 on the Rays.  If you're going to pick apart a post. READ IT 1ST

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

I said close to 200 innings.  If they have 30 starts an average of 6 innings per start that's 180 innings. That's CLOSE to 200. And I watch as much non Twins baseball as I can. I live where I have Bally coverage of the Reds and Braves. So I would say I watch CLOSE to 300 games a year. I watched all of the WBC, not just USA. And you didn't answer the question mr stats. Which Twin pitcher would slot in #2 on the Rays.  If you're going to pick apart a post. READ IT 1ST

 

I read it. We clearly disagree about what a number two pitcher is. I'm ok with that 

 How many pitched 180 innings? 27, including Pablo Lopez. If you think there are only 27 aces and number two pitchers, your bar is higher than mine, that seems to be our disagreement. No biggie, we just don't agree.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I read it. We clearly disagree about what a number two pitcher is. I'm ok with that 

 How many pitched 180 innings? 27, including Pablo Lopez. If you think there are only 27 aces and number two pitchers, your bar is higher than mine, that seems to be our disagreement. No biggie, we just don't agree.

You like to use Brian Kenny type analysis. So using his barometer to measure. There are 25 Starting Pitchers in his top 100 players right now. So the number you used was 27. I would say the way they stack up is close to that number. Let's say 30 or 35 number 1s and 2s total. And several teams have multiple players on that list. Playoff teams, no surprise there. Gray and Ryan avg less than 5 innings per start. Mahle is coming back from. Injury. Maeda hasn't pitched in over a year. Lopez we'll  have to see about. I watched him while I was down there and he pitched in the WBC and he looked pretty good. All I'm saying is based on that knowledge, saying you have 5 number 2s is being pretty optimistic to say the least.