Is it time to move the goalposts forward?

[Badsmerf]

Wainwright was already extended. Greinke would probably required a minimum of 8/200 to come here. You wanted the Twins to pay that?

So it would cost 53 million extra to get him to sign here? You must be smoking of that stuff the Twins send out. It would be all about dollars. He got 147 million, if they had offered 155 he would be a fool not to take it. Yes, 2013 wouldn't be the best year, but after that he could anchor a perennial contender for the rest of his career. For the life of his contract the Twins will have a better record than the Dodgers, and I don't think it will even be close. It isn't that hard to get FA pitchers, you just have to actually make a financial commitment.

[kab21]

I'm not picky as long as they are good hitters. I still think you are underselling Arcia and underestimating how easy it is to pick up your classic slugger at DH/1B when most of the lineup is making the min or in arb.

 

There are also some other power prospects in the minors that can be that power bat that you are looking for. Vargas, Walker (70 power) and Harrison are 3 of my favorites. In other years these guys would be getting a lot more attention.

[TheLeviathan]

There are also some other power prospects in the minors that can be that power bat that you are looking for. Vargas, Walker (70 power) and Harrison are 3 of my favorites. In other years these guys would be getting a lot more attention.

 

I'll start keeping an eye on them.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Thank you Brock. I had been pondering a thread like this for a while.

Do you push Buxton to maybe catch up with Sano? Do you push them all?

 

Not all these guys are going to rake in MLB like they are raking now. Remember that Plouffe, Parmelee and Hicks were all 1st round draft picks.

 

That said, I am optimistic. I would like the Twins to push some of these guys along. It doesn't always work (Hicks) but sometimes it does (Hrbek, Mauer, others).

[AScheib50]

Not all these guys are going to rake in MLB like they are raking now. Remember that Plouffe, Parmelee and Hicks were all 1st round draft picks.

 

Yeah, but none of those three guys ever hit in the minors like Buxton, Sano, Rosario...hell even Walker are hitting right now. Parmalee killed AAA last year when he went back but Plouffe certainly never dominated the minors. He didn't show a lot of power until possibly his last year or 2 in the minors. Hicks has been good but not great in the minors to me. Sano, Buxton and Rosario are all playing great right now. So I have a harder time grouping those guys with the likes of Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmalee. No offense to those two guys at all.

[drjim]

So it would cost 53 million extra to get him to sign here? You must be smoking of that stuff the Twins send out. It would be all about dollars. He got 147 million, if they had offered 155 he would be a fool not to take it. Yes, 2013 wouldn't be the best year, but after that he could anchor a perennial contender for the rest of his career. For the life of his contract the Twins will have a better record than the Dodgers, and I don't think it will even be close. It isn't that hard to get FA pitchers, you just have to actually make a financial commitment.

 

As a general rule I add one year and 10% to the accepted offer to give the Twins a chance. If you think a 5% difference would be enough and the Dodgers wouldn't match I want to know what you're smoking.

[Mike Sixel]

And yet, no one can say where else they would spend that money, if not on Greinke.....by the time you need to PAY Sano, Mauer is gone, or a lot cheaper.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not all these guys are going to rake in MLB like they are raking now. Remember that Plouffe, Parmelee and Hicks were all 1st round draft picks.

 

Being a first round pick has nothing to do with it. Buxton and Sano are playing out of their minds against players that are generally older. Plouffe and Parmelee never did that and Hicks never came close to the production Miguel and Byron are showing in 2013.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are also some other power prospects in the minors that can be that power bat that you are looking for. Vargas, Walker (70 power) and Harrison are 3 of my favorites. In other years these guys would be getting a lot more attention.

 

There are definitely power guys in the minors... It's just a question of when (if) they'll be ready for promotion. They have some potential but are overshadowed by Sano and Buxton going completely ****ing gonzo in the minors.

[IdahoPilgrim]

So it would cost 53 million extra to get him to sign here? You must be smoking of that stuff the Twins send out. It would be all about dollars. He got 147 million, if they had offered 155 he would be a fool not to take it. Yes, 2013 wouldn't be the best year, but after that he could anchor a perennial contender for the rest of his career. For the life of his contract the Twins will have a better record than the Dodgers, and I don't think it will even be close. It isn't that hard to get FA pitchers, you just have to actually make a financial commitment.

 

People make decisions all the time based on factors other than who is the highest bidder. I chose my current position because I thought I could make a difference here and because they offered me enough, not because they offered me the most (they didn't). I guess I don't call that foolish. For somebody like Greinke who is set for money for life regardless, I can easily see him making decisions based on factors other than who is the highest bidder.

[drjim]

And yet, no one can say where else they would spend that money, if not on Greinke.....by the time you need to PAY Sano, Mauer is gone, or a lot cheaper.

 

I'm going to guess there will be another opportunity for the Twins to spend money over the next seven years.

[LaBombo]

Not many options of position players at all. It amazes me how long a MLB team owns the rights to players.

Maybe that's a bit of a trade off for MLB free agents making almost entirely guaranteed money in the last major team sport with no salary cap?

[Nick Nelson]

This thread basically echoes my sentiments from last week's post about the Twins' rebuilding timeline being accelerated. You've got to be encouraged by things happening all around the organization. We certainly can't assume that Sano/Buxton/Meyer are all going to keep tearing it up like they have thus far, but all three are positioning themselves for midseason promotions which would put them all in position to make an impact as soon as next year (Buxton being somewhat of a long shot). There will be tons of money available to add around them if the Twins are willing to return somewhere close to the $100M payroll mark.

[Badsmerf]

This thread basically echoes my sentiments from last week's post about the Twins' rebuilding timeline being accelerated. You've got to be encouraged by things happening all around the organization. We certainly can't assume that Sano/Buxton/Meyer are all going to keep tearing it up like they have thus far, but all three are positioning themselves for midseason promotions which would put them all in position to make an impact as soon as next year (Buxton being somewhat of a long shot). There will be tons of money available to add around them if the Twins are willing to return somewhere close to the $100M payroll mark.

The problem is the lack of realistic options. Signing guys in FA is generally paying for what they did in their prime and it doesn't equal a good investment. Sometimes it does pay off. Torii played up to his big contract with LAA. Most pitchers sign extensions before hitting FA to avoid the risk of getting injured and having to go through what Scott Baker is now. Its not easy to find good, elite player investments. You can always find guys to plug in a fill a need. I hope a few years down the road there is an elite pitcher under 30 the Twins can sign for big money, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Nick Nelson]

Its not easy to find good, elite player investments. You can always find guys to plug in a fill a need.

And those are the guys I'm talking about. I agree that the Twins aren't going to acquire star-caliber players through the FA avenue -- which is why they need a couple of their own prospects to reach that level -- but they should be able to add several reasonably decent supporting pieces. Yeah, they'll have to overpay for those pieces, but they can afford to do so with as many cheap young contributors as they figure to have.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Alex Meyer isn't the Twins' best prospect but he's their most important one. If he doesn't turn into that front-of-rotation type arm, they're going to have a really tough time finding one elsewhere, at least in time to make a run with Mauer.

[rikker49]

Goodrum...Polanco???? I think one, if not both, could make the majors. They would be fast-tracked if Santana fizzles. Plus...Kepler for a corner outfield spot????? This organization is loaded!!!!! Hell, Roberts(LF) could still make it and no one has mentioned Wimmers(SP) yet. DEEP!!

[Badsmerf]

And those are the guys I'm talking about. I agree that the Twins aren't going to acquire star-caliber players through the FA avenue -- which is why they need a couple of their own prospects to reach that level -- but they should be able to add several reasonably decent supporting pieces. Yeah, they'll have to overpay for those pieces, but they can afford to do so with as many cheap young contributors as they figure to have.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Alex Meyer isn't the Twins' best prospect but he's their most important one. If he doesn't turn into that front-of-rotation type arm, they're going to have a really tough time finding one elsewhere, at least in time to make a run with Mauer.

We are in agreement. These are the reasons I was bullish on Greinke this offseason, and felt the Twins should have pulled the trigger with the amount of talent they have coming up. There will always be #3 starters on the market. If history in the playoffs has shown the Twins anything, its that playoff series are difficult to win with a sub-par rotation.

 

Looking forward, in 2015 there are still names on the FA board that would look real nice with the Twins. That will be a more serious run anyway. Lets all just hope they don't sign extensions.

[drjim]

We are in agreement. These are the reasons I was bullish on Greinke this offseason, and felt the Twins should have pulled the trigger with the amount of talent they have coming up. There will always be #3 starters on the market. If history in the playoffs has shown the Twins anything, its that playoff series are difficult to win with a sub-par rotation.

 

Looking forward, in 2015 there are still names on the FA board that would look real nice with the Twins. That will be a more serious run anyway. Lets all just hope they don't sign extensions.

 

Most will sign extensions and teams with more resources (ie Yankees and Red Sox) will have a lot of money to play with.

[Reginald Maudling's Shin]

I'm not picky as long as they are good hitters. I still think you are underselling Arcia and underestimating how easy it is to pick up your classic slugger at DH/1B when most of the lineup is making the min or in arb.

 

There are also some other power prospects in the minors that can be that power bat that you are looking for. Vargas, Walker (70 power) and Harrison are 3 of my favorites. In other years these guys would be getting a lot more attention.

 

I will concur and take it one step further: I think Arcia will eventually hit 20-30 hr consistently, especially if he gets any bigger and stronger. Also we are about 3 years removed from signing a guy with 20 HR power for $1M. Those all power no average and/or glove guys are out there, the A's have half their roster composed of them. What they can't do, however, is sacrifice defense for a few home runs. Personally I can't stand one dimensional ball players like that excepting for a DH. Watching Michael Cuddyer carry a piano and let fly balls drop 20 feet in front of him for years has its consequences.

[Physics Guy]

I agree with Brock's earlier assessment that the Twins' should be able to provide plenty of power. By the end of 2014, the Twins lineup could look like this (with potential 2015 HR totals):

 

C - Mauer 10

1B - Parmelee 20-25

2B - Dozier - 5-10

3B - Sano - 30+

SS - ????

LF - Arcia - 20-25

CF - Hicks - 10-15

RF - Benson - 20

DH - Plouffe - 20-25

 

When was the last time they had 5 guys with 20+ HR potential? I realize this is an optimistic assessment, but there are other options to fill some of those gaps. They also will have money to spend for a guy or two.

 

I also agree that SP is their number one goal for spending. One avenue I would like Ryan to pursue is trading for a solid veteran SP from somebody that is looking to do a salary dump. If the Twins continue showing signs of turning it around this season, they also have a better chance of luring a FA starter. I have my doubts that TR will go after the top shelf, but who knows.

[Mike Sixel]

I think you might be a bit bullish on Parmalee and Benson*

 

*Benson from a "will he even be up here" perspective, not power perspective.

[Physics Guy]

I think you might be a bit bullish on Parmalee and Benson*

 

*Benson from a "will he even be up here" perspective, not power perspective.

 

Agreed. I thought I was clear about that in my post. As far as Benson is concerned, I would think he is a non-prospect if he is not up by then.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Unfortunately, I think Benson may have already slid into non-prospect territory.

[Physics Guy]

You may be right. At least he is keeping the hope alive with .300+ BA over the past 10. If need be, maybe Plouffe slides to RF and we find a DH/1B who can pop 20+. I think we realistically should be able to hit more HR that we have in the recent past.

[ashbury]

At least he is keeping the hope alive with .300+ BA over the past 10.

 

Nine game hitting streak in that span; not sure if hitting streaks end with a pinchrunning appearance. Anyway as his father in the TD Adopt-a-Prospect, I gotta stand up for my son.

[cmathewson]

Benson's best bet is to be better than Mastroianni and become a solid bench option. That might happen if this leg thing continues. I don't see him starting outside of injury replacements. I could be wrong.