Is it time to move the goalposts forward?

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's pretty hard not to be excited as a Twins fan right now. The team has stayed close to .500 through April, which is far better than many of us expected this season. The pitching staff looks acceptable, though entirely unspectacular.

 

But what's interesting are the rookies and minor leagues.

 

Aaron Hicks appears to have turned the corner and has spent the past two weeks turning himself into an adequate centerfielder, an impressive feat for a 23 year old rookie when you factor in how lost he looked in the first half of April. His slugging is abysmal but he's showing just about the right amount of patience and given his last ~30 ABs, looks like the hits will start coming at some point.

 

On the other hand, the guy I've been raving about, Arcia, looks to be completely oblivious to how "hard" it is to hit Major League pitching. He's looked bad at times but has shown plenty of flashes of power, more so than Hicks. He looks like another guy who could be close to league average as a rookie, which is even more impressive because he hasn't even turned 22 yet.

 

And then there are the minor leagues.

 

Gibson has started five games in Rochester. 3.33 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. It looks like he's pretty close to ready.

 

Alex Meyer. Absolutely killing it in New Britain. Four starts, 1.64 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9.

 

And the hitters, two of which are putting up video game numbers. It's ridiculous.

 

Eddie Rosario. Still a question mark at second but posting a .960 OPS in Fort Myers.

 

Miguel Sano. 1.176 OPS. All that needs to be said.

 

Byron Buxon. 1.150 OPS. Crikey.

 

Is it time to start thinking that this team might be able to compete as soon as 2014? If these guys continue to play this way, Gibson will definitely be on the roster by July. It will be impossible to ignore Meyer much longer than that. Hicks and Arcia will be a year older. Sano and Buxton might be knocking on the door next Opening Day. Rosario might not be far behind them.

 

This roster could see close to a 50% turnover in 12-18 months. Crazy.

[Mike Sixel]

There is no reason not to try to compete in 2014.....but what do you think they would do to make that more real? You really think Rosario or Sano make the roster before mid-May next year? You think there is any chance Buxton is on the roster next year?

 

Meyer, I think, could on this roster this year, along with Gibson. I'd guess June-ish for Gibson and July for Meyer. I don't see anyone else of difference coming up this year, unless Doumit gets hurt, or Benson takes off (assuming no trades).

[Seth Stohs]

A tweet from Brice Zimmerman, the play-by-play guy for the Miracle:

 

Brice Zimmerman ‏@ZimMiracle8m

Eddie Rosario not only passing the eye test at 2B, but also statistically is best in the FSL. Perfect in 24 games, 135 chances and 20 DP.

[Gene Larkin Fan Club]

Ahhh...the rare and elusive optimistic post! It'll be an absolute blast to watch the next 2 years while the roster starts to turn over. Plenty reasons for Twins fans to show enthusiasm. Thanks, Brock! Go Twins!

[drivlikejehu]

No. You can't predict exactly what will happen when prospects are ultimately called up... often it takes some time to adjust. Some never do. There are weaknesses at key places - SP, MI in particular - that will have to be addressed. I'd be happy if the Twins were competitive in 2015.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A tweet from Brice Zimmerman, the play-by-play guy for the Miracle:

 

Brice Zimmerman ‏@ZimMiracle8m

Eddie Rosario not only passing the eye test at 2B, but also statistically is best in the FSL. Perfect in 24 games, 135 chances and 20 DP.

 

I've been wondering about his performance this season. Mientkiewicz raved about him early. I figured it was back-patting fluff to boost morale.

 

Maybe there was more to it.

[Mike Sixel]

No. You can't predict exactly what will happen when prospects are ultimately called up... often it takes some time to adjust. Some never do. There are weaknesses at key places - SP, MI in particular - that will have to be addressed. I'd be happy if the Twins were competitive in 2015.

 

Not if we have to suffer through this year and next year. There is no reason not to try to compete next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No. You can't predict exactly what will happen when prospects are ultimately called up... often it takes some time to adjust. Some never do. There are weaknesses at key places - SP, MI in particular - that will have to be addressed. I'd be happy if the Twins were competitive in 2015.

 

I should have clarified my thoughts a bit. By "competitive", I mean "still in it at the deadline".

 

I think that's possible in 2014.

 

In 2015, I'd like to see a run at the playoffs.

 

And I don't think the SP and MI is in that bad of shape, honestly. The team needs a shortstop but it always needs a shortstop. Dozier looks like an adequate stop-gap at second.

 

And Gibson/Meyer could slot into the rotation and turn it into a pretty decent staff by their second year. They won't be world-beaters but they should be able to hold their own.

[drivlikejehu]

The fact the Twins "always" need a shortstop doesn't change the fact it's a problem. Everyone agrees on the importance of the position.

 

The problem with pitching is that guys get hurt. Even if everyone stayed healthy, a 2015 rotation of Meyer, Gibson, Worley, Diamond, Hendriks/other isn't really that good. And that's with no margin for error. It's still a major problem.

[DaveW]

2013 Playoffs

2014 World Series

2015 World Series

2016 World Series

2017 Playoffs

2018 World Series

 

I want him to ravage me sexually.

[stringer bell]

I am optimistic, as well. Don't forget Mr. Berrios, who I predict will prove that he is far advanced beyond his years. After seeing him in the WBC, I predicted he would be the next pre-21 year old to break in with the Twins. I am holding to that prediction. I think the Twins should move two of Morneau/Willingham/Doumit and try to acquire another building block pitcher like Meyer and maybe May. Also, if he keeps hitting, Pinto may render Doumit irrelevant.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The fact the Twins "always" need a shortstop doesn't change the fact it's a problem. Everyone agrees on the importance of the position.

 

The problem with pitching is that guys get hurt. Even if everyone stayed healthy, a 2015 rotation of Meyer, Gibson, Worley, Diamond, Hendriks/other isn't really that good. And that's with no margin for error. It's still a major problem.

 

If the Twins can find a competent guy in the field to play short, I'll be satisfied. I won't like it but given this team's history, it's about all I can expect.

 

Part of the reason I started this thread is to suggest that "moving the goalposts" forward involves spending money to win. It's not all about running out a 100% homegrown team, it's about suggesting that it may be time to pick up competent filler for the roster weaknesses.

 

And that probably includes picking up a decent starting pitcher. He doesn't need to be flashy but someone in the mold of a 2013 Ervin Santana would go a long way toward solidifying the rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

Hence my question, Brock......what should they do to the team, money wise, to move the goal post forward? I'd like to see some prospect dealt for a legit SS or SP that costs money. They have plenty of money.

 

I think Meyer, Gibson, Diamond is a pretty good, not great, top 3. If the other 3-4 starters can be not awful, and the offense is about average, that lineup can win a weak Central. That assumes Detroit is old, and KC's plans have not worked out......to me, that is a big part of the question.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hence my question, Brock......what should they do to the team, money wise, to move the goal post forward? I'd like to see some prospect dealt for a legit SS or SP that costs money. They have plenty of money.

 

The priority, in order:

 

1. Starting Pitcher

2. Shortstop

3. Third Base (obviously, entirely dependent on Trevor Plouffe)

 

Given how the Twins value their prospects, I think the free agent market is the most logical place to pursue decent, not great, players at these positions.

[Siehbiscuit]

A tweet from Brice Zimmerman, the play-by-play guy for the Miracle:

 

Brice Zimmerman ‏@ZimMiracle8m

Eddie Rosario not only passing the eye test at 2B, but also statistically is best in the FSL. Perfect in 24 games, 135 chances and 20 DP.

 

That is the best news I have heard all day! Also, Levi Michael showing a little pop in his bat with a 2 run HR yesterday. Hopefully between Santana, Polanco, Michael or Escobar and Dozier, one or two of these guys can stick or move to SS long-term and form a solid infield with Rosario.

[TheLeviathan]

If 2015 is ultimately more attainable.....where does Santana project to be by then?

 

One other factor to consider is where elite power is going to come in future teams until Sano arrives. (Though now that I say that I guess 2015 maybe right for him anyway)

[Mike Sixel]

Power remains an issue, even when Sano comes up. They'll need Harrison to move to 1B and be legit (or draft Bryant if they don't love a pitcher and move him to 1B and fast track him). They don't really have a DH candidate either.....Unless Buxton or Arcia or Benson show sustained power, this team needs to find more power than they have now.

[drjim]

If by some miracle Appel falls to them in the draft that would help the cause.

 

I always thought this year was to sort out what they have, next year they start to move (which js competing by your definition) and then start to really be a threat in 2015. I still think this is realistic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Power remains an issue, even when Sano comes up. They'll need Harrison to move to 1B and be legit (or draft Bryant if they don't love a pitcher and move him to 1B and fast track him). They don't really have a DH candidate either.....Unless Buxton or Arcia or Benson show sustained power, this team needs to find more power than they have now.

 

Really, I don't think power is going to be a huge issue. Sano will replace Willingham. Mauer will do his OBP thing. Hicks should hit a few more homers than Span once he gets time under his belt. Arcia should hit quite a few more homers than Hicks. If Plouffe sticks, all he'll do of value is hit homers.

 

I don't see power being a huge challenge for this lineup going forward. It won't be elite power but teams don't need elite power if several of the players reach base over 35% of the time (which the Twins should be able to do with Hicks, Mauer, Sano, and maybe Arcia).

[kab21]

I was hoping that they would spend some money this past offseason as long as they avoided a long term contract. I hope they do it next year since they will have even more money to work with.

 

The problem with moving the goalposts is that there is only so many FA's out there and most of them sign ridiculous contracts. If you are going to really move the goalposts forward then it probably will come at the expense of the farm system like the Royals.

 

Right now I'm just happy that the Twins prospects are moving the goalposts forward and several of them are poised to play at 2 levels this season. We will know more about Buxton's, Sano's, Rosario's and Meyer's timing after the first half is finished. Do they get promoted? Are they holding their own at the next level?

[Brock Beauchamp]

If by some miracle Appel falls to them in the draft that would help the cause.

 

I always thought this year was to sort out what they have, next year they start to move (which js competing by your definition) and then start to really be a threat in 2015. I still think this is realistic.

 

If Appel falls to the Twins (incredibly unlikely, damn you NL for being so awful), that changes everything.

[TheLeviathan]

t won't be elite power but teams don't need elite power if several of the players reach base over 35% of the time (which the Twins should be able to do with Hicks, Mauer, Sano, and maybe Arcia).

 

Still, having only one major power source could be an issue. It will help if Rosario's bat is at second but you are still talking 20ish homeruns as likely projections for all non-Sano ideal power positions. That could still be a good lineup but I'd prefer at least one other bopper.

[nicksaviking]

What do you consider "major" power? The Twins have rarely, if ever, had more than one guy with major power in their lineup. I would think that Arcia will develop power in the Cuddyer/Kubel range. Or are you looking for more of the Mantle/Maris modle?

[Mike Sixel]

I won't speak for Lev, but I think it is harder to score runs if you only have one guy you even expect to hit 15 HRs.....I doubt anyone is looking for Mantle and Maris, how about Gaetti/Hrbek/Brunansky, plus random guys? That's what I think people believe they need. Three guys with legit power, plus the random guy every year with power. Can you even name teh likely DH or 1B in 2 years? I can't.

[kab21]

I won't speak for Lev, but I think it is harder to score runs if you only have one guy you even expect to hit 15 HRs.....I doubt anyone is looking for Mantle and Maris, how about Gaetti/Hrbek/Brunansky, plus random guys? That's what I think people believe they need. Three guys with legit power, plus the random guy every year with power. Can you even name teh likely DH or 1B in 2 years? I can't.

 

I think it's hard to score runs when you have below average hitters at several positions. With the guys coming up in 2 years I think the Twins could have 7 .750+ OPS bats in the lineup. If there are a couple of legitimately above average bats (Mauer, Sano and maybe Arcia or buxton a year or two later) that will be a really good offense regardless if they only have 1 guy with over 20 HR's.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I won't speak for Lev, but I think it is harder to score runs if you only have one guy you even expect to hit 15 HRs.....I doubt anyone is looking for Mantle and Maris, how about Gaetti/Hrbek/Brunansky, plus random guys? That's what I think people believe they need. Three guys with legit power, plus the random guy every year with power. Can you even name teh likely DH or 1B in 2 years? I can't.

 

I think Arcia will be a 20 homer guy. Plouffe, if he sticks, will definitely be a 20 homer guy (or his value plummets).

 

Buxton? Hard to say at this point and if he blossoms into a 20 homer guy, it won't be for several more years.

[Ultima Ratio]

I'm still more concerned about Hicks than I am Plouffe at this point. I don't know if Arcia will give anything more than Delmon Young on defense and at the plate. In short, there are questions everywhere except for about 6-7 guys, pitchers included.

[TheLeviathan]

What do you consider "major" power? The Twins have rarely, if ever, had more than one guy with major power in their lineup. I would think that Arcia will develop power in the Cuddyer/Kubel range. Or are you looking for more of the Mantle/Maris modle?

 

I'd take a Kubel to go with Sano, I'd feel better then. Maybe Arcia is that guy, but when you start projecting most of these talents power is one thing you could say is not a strength. A solid 1-8 of OPS guys would be awesome, but I'd like to see some more of that constituted in power.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd take a Kubel to go with Sano, I'd feel better then. Maybe Arcia is that guy, but when you start projecting most of these talents power is one thing you could say is not a strength. A solid 1-8 of OPS guys would be awesome, but I'd like to see some more of that constituted in power.

 

I think Arcia will be that guy. He hit around 15 homers per season through the minors while Kubel hit more in the 20 range per season.

 

But Arcia did it a year younger at every level.

[kab21]

I'd take a Kubel to go with Sano, I'd feel better then. Maybe Arcia is that guy, but when you start projecting most of these talents power is one thing you could say is not a strength. A solid 1-8 of OPS guys would be awesome, but I'd like to see some more of that constituted in power.

 

This is one reason that I think Bryant is a great pick at #4. Pitching is a big need but a middle of the order bat that would need <2 seasons in the minors sounds awesome.