One Fan's Opinion: Ranking the Remaining Trade Candidates (Pitchers)

[Sherry Cerny]

The offseason is upon us again! With the ratification of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), free agency is back, and teams can start making trades again. The Twins made some moves before the lockout, but they are still in need of pitching. There are several pitchers that might be available via trade. 

 

The Twins made one minor acquisition before the lockout, adding right-handed pitcher Dylan Bundy. In 2020, he posted a 3.29 ERA and 1.03 WHIP but had a setback in 2021. While the Twins fans were hoping for starting pitching, they weren’t impressed with the last purchase. 

Now that the lockout is over and baseball can get back to business, here are my thoughts on the top five trade candidates to help the Twins pitching staff.. 

5. Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo (29/RHP) carries a career ERA of 3.72, with a strikeout rate of 23.9% and a higher walk rate than Tyler Mahle at 9.3%. During the 2021 season, Castillo was tied for the most games started (33) but also tied for the most Base on Balls (75) and losses (16). With one of the highest amounts of innings thrown, there will be negative numbers. Nash Walker wrote about Castillo's impressive ability at limiting home runs which is more significant than worrying about walks. 

Because his cost for trade is so high, I am ranking Luis Castillo as a last resort because the possibility of a package deal with this player is slim. Luis Castillo is a massive commodity in trade talks right now, and the Angels have shown interest. Castillo still has two years of club control at the price point of around $7.6MM. There has been no speculation about what the Reds would want in return, considering they are shopping three of their pitchers right now.

4. Chris Bassitt

Chris Bassitt (33/RHP) has an overall impressive ERA of 3.15 (ERA+ of 130) over his 27 starts and 157 innings pitched in 2021. He has been an above-average pitcher since Tommy John surgery back in 2018. Bassitt was a Cy Young contender the past two seasons and could be a safe bet for the Twins, which knowing the Twins is all they are willing to do when it comes to pitching. 

One of the best options available for the Twins, Bassitt is on the cheaper end of the trade scale, due for arbitration in 2022, and in 2023 he will be a free agent. He has been a Twins Daily favorite for trade talks in the past. The trade would be worth it to get what the Twins need out of him before he becomes a free agent. It wouldn't be the best trade the Twins could make, but it would be something that could help through the 2022 season with starter pitching. 

3. Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray (32/RHP) has a solid arm; his age doesn't seem to deter him at all from being one of the Reds best starting pitchers. James Cameron talked about in his Twins Daily post relaying that Gray has the makings of a great starting pitcher for the Twins. One of the things that makes Gray a solid choice is his ability to grow and change. His pitches have made him dangerous on the mound. He has a strong four-pitch mix that has long made him a quality starter. . 

The Reds have not been shy about shopping Gray, along with his counterparts Mahle and Castillo. Gray is projected to make $10.67MM in 2022 and remains under club control for 2023 via the $12.5MM club option. 

2. Frankie Montas
Frankie Montas - (28/RHP) The Oakland Athletics have had a solid pitching rotation, including Montas, who slid into the number six position of the 2021 Cy Young Award voting. The 28-year-old right-hander has command of the mound. His fastball was in the range of 90-99mph throughout the 2021 season, contributing to the 26.6% strikeout ratio compared to 7.3% walks and earning him a 3.36 ERA. While he struggled in the minors, he continued to pitch smarter and work harder to create reliable confidence for his team throughout 2021.

His age makes him a prime candidate for creating a long-term contract with the organization that picks him up. With Montas's previously moving around from team to team, a long-term solution might be great not only for him but for whoever picks him up.  The Twins have pieces to trade to acquire Montas. The A's know what they have in  Montas, making him potentially a more challenging trade, leaving the possibility of a three-team trade, but the Twins could avoid that with the right offer.

1. Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle may not have the name recognition and notoriety that his Reds teammates do, but he's developed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons. Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA with an impressive 28.1% strikeout rate against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Throughout his career, the most considerable concern has been his walks and home runs. 

Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors projects a $5.6MM salary in 2022 for Mahle. Mahle is the youngest of the possible acquisitions mentioned, so he'll pitch nearly all of the 2022 season at 27 years old. Out of all the Twins' options, Mahle would be a great asset to the Twins starting rotation; Trading for Mahle just might be the smartest option for the Twins to start. 

Free Agency is going to be insanely competitive in the coming days which could be good for the Twins. That said, due to the competitive nature of free agency and the potential for scorned owners, lots of teams may be looking to trade possibilities. While age is a factor, so is longevity and more and more baseball players are showing age is just a number and can work past their “prime”. Sonny Gray would be a great addition to the Twins rotation, but if it’s money they are worried about, Tyler Mahle will be the best option, in this fan's opinion.

What do you think the Twins should be looking for in a pitcher? Should they be looking on the free agency market or play it safe and offer trades? 

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[jorgenswest]

I don’t think it would be wise to give up prospect assets for one year of control. I suppose they could trade for Bassitt and then flip him for a hopefully similar return at the deadline. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins need to become a more athletic team in the field. Martin and Lewis are solid athletes and I hope they can contribute at some point, certainly by next year. There are players we all like that would be a fair exchange for Bassitt. An experienced starting pitcher brings more to the team than just their starts, much the same as the influence of Nelson Cruz among a few players. We will find out soon what The Plan is for 2022.

[beckmt]

I am one unless you can make a great trade, Twins need to see what they have.  Sorry to pour cold water on this, but when you have like 10 -12 prospects to be protected in the next 2 years, you need to find out what you have.  Otherwise you may well lose the best ones on a misguess.  No thanks.

[Sherry Cerny]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think it would be wise to give up prospect assets for one year of control. I suppose they could trade for Bassitt and then flip him for a hopefully similar return at the deadline. 

Bassitt is my number one choice. I think he would be a great fit. 

[Sherry Cerny]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins need to become a more athletic team in the field. Martin and Lewis are solid athletes and I hope they can contribute at some point, certainly by next year. There are players we all like that would be a fair exchange for Bassitt. An experienced starting pitcher brings more to the team than just their starts, much the same as the influence of Nelson Cruz among a few players. We will find out soon what The Plan is for 2022.

Absolutely!!! Experience is important, and I think Bassitt has good experience to help us out. 

[Sherry Cerny]

1 hour ago, beckmt said:

I am one unless you can make a great trade, Twins need to see what they have.  Sorry to pour cold water on this, but when you have like 10 -12 prospects to be protected in the next 2 years, you need to find out what you have.  Otherwise you may well lose the best ones on a misguess.  No thanks.

I understand that completely. I love our prospects, I think there are other possibilities for trade than our prospects. I think it’s necessary to have a good arm right now that we wouldn’t have to give up a lot for. We also could spend 150mm on various free agents, there are options!!

[beckmt]

57 minutes ago, Sherry Cerny said:

I understand that completely. I love our prospects, I think there are other possibilities for trade than our prospects. I think it’s necessary to have a good arm right now that we wouldn’t have to give up a lot for. We also could spend 150mm on various free agents, there are options!!

depends on who you give up, but I don't like guessing games.  Maybe just maybe you can get a pitcher you can afford, but it does not come cheap.  Rather than trade prospects, would rather trade Kepler who seems to have reached his peak.  But most of the lower clubs value cost control and younger players, maybe that will change as I understand the new CBA has some penalties for bad records year after year.  (Read Pirates, Miami, and others).  Should be interesting.

[beckmt]

According to MLBtraderumors the Twins have checked the medicals of Rodon and Kikuchi.  Signing one would be no surprise.  But we shall see.  I would rather spend money than prospects.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think it would be wise to give up prospect assets for one year of control. I suppose they could trade for Bassitt and then flip him for a hopefully similar return at the deadline. 

Counterpoint (though just one person's opinion, of course):
This would be the wisest thing to do, because the assets required in trade would be significantly less. That's favorable for (however much they claim not to be rebuilding) a "retooling" team with a serious need for stability in its rotation in the short term.

[Karbo]

I think it would be foolish to give up much for prospects this year unless we get someone that is under contract (or willing to sign long term) for more than 2 years. IMHO we are better off signing 1 or 2 mid-range free agent starters on short term contracts to see how the youngsters develop either in the minors or in the pen. After all, I see this as more of a transition year. With the new playoff format, come trade deadline, make a decision then. Are we in a position to go for it? By that time, we should have a few more months to evaluate the prospects too.

[jorgenswest]

11 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Counterpoint (though just one person's opinion, of course):
This would be the wisest thing to do, because the assets required in trade would be significantly less. That's favorable for (however much they claim not to be rebuilding) a "retooling" team with a serious need for stability in its rotation in the short term.

I guess it depends on whether they can sign someone like Rodon. A trade for Bassitt might move the projection by 2 wins maybe less if compared to signing Pineda instead. Is that enough movement to give up pant significant prospect?

[Doctor Gast]

Both the A's and Reds are looking at salary dumps. But the Reds will want high prospects so my choice would be the A's Montas and or Bassit. I believe the A's need a full time 2B or 3B if they trade Chapman which I think they will. Arraez would be an almost painless trade piece for my #1 Montas. To solve our SP delema is worth almost any cost that won't  drastically effect our future.

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Counterpoint (though just one person's opinion, of course):
This would be the wisest thing to do, because the assets required in trade would be significantly less. That's favorable for (however much they claim not to be rebuilding) a "retooling" team with a serious need for stability in its rotation in the short term.

Bassit and Semien were acquired for a pitcher Samardzija) with one year of control.