Hendriks and Doumit

[jorgenswest]

Doumit has started one game at catcher this year. He caught Hendriks start. We can debate again whether Doumit's poor pitch framing performance over his entire career is an illusion or a real liability for a pitcher and team.

 

Last year Mauer and Doumit each caught Hendriks 6 times.

 

Mauer 6g, 37.1 inn, 3.86 ERA

Doumit 6g, 28.1 inn, 7.94 ERA

 

You have to believe he would have more confidence with Mauer even if it is an illusion. He has not had a single quality start with Doumit behind the plate.

 

I sure hope it is Mauer behind the plate tomorrow. Why not have Doumit catch a veteran? Maybe Correia is more likely to shake off that missed strike call that is more frequent with Doumit. Doumit probably has some experience catching Correia in Pittsburgh. If he must go behind the plate, the Twins should keep him away from their young pitchers.

[glunn]

That is an interesting analysis. I wonder if the statistical difference is similar with respect to the other young pitchers.

[kab21]

Bring back Butera!

[jorgenswest]

The Deduno/Mauer connection was not a good one. Diamond was about the same.

 

All of it is a small sample. While it may not be mathematically significant, it seems like Hendriks would have to be more confident with Mauer behind the plate where he has had most of his quality starts (Herrmann caught a quality start also).

 

Correia was an all star in 2011. Doumit caught him more than any other catcher that year. Correia had a 3.99 ERA with Doumit and virtually the same with Snyder.

 

Why not put Mauer at DH in Correia's starts? Why is Doumit behind the plate with the one pitcher who has never had success with him?

[bear333]

Doumit has started one game at catcher this year. He caught Hendriks start. We can debate again whether Doumit's poor pitch framing performance over his entire career is an illusion or a real liability for a pitcher and team.

 

Last year Mauer and Doumit each caught Mauer 6 times.

 

Mauer 6g, 37.1 inn, 3.86 ERA

Doumit 6g, 28.1 inn, 7.94 ERA

 

You have to believe he would have more confidence with Mauer even if it is an illusion. He has not had a single quality start with Doumit behind the plate.

 

I sure hope it is Mauer behind the plate tomorrow. Why not have Doumit catch a veteran? Maybe Correia is more likely to shake off that missed strike call that is more frequent with Doumit. Doumit probably has some experience catching Correia in Pittsburgh. If he must go behind the plate, the Twins should keep him away from their young pitchers.

Mauer caught Mauer last year? I don't remember those games. Seems impossible.

[jorgenswest]

Mauer caught Mauer last year? I don't remember those games. Seems impossible.

 

Oops. Fixed. Thanks.

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I buy into *some* of the stats behind framing, I think it's somewhat overblown.

 

With that said, Hendriks lacks confidence. That's painfully apparent. When a pitcher is lacking in confidence, it's not a bad idea to put somebody behind the plate who is better at framing and handling pitchers, particularly when that catcher is also the best hitter on the team.

 

Let Doumit catch veterans like Pelfrey and Correia for the time being. It just makes sense.

[jay]

While I buy into *some* of the stats behind framing, I think it's somewhat overblown.

 

Have to agree with this one. It's a great concept and certainly a valuable aspect of catching. I just don't think we're currently capable of measuring it well. Jose Molina is worth a half run per game more than Doumit solely due to framing? Doesn't pass the smell test.

 

However, it's universally acknowledged that Doumit is not strong in this area and it absolutely makes sense to keep him away from young pitchers looking for confidence.

[fairweather]

The thing is that the Twins really want Hendriks to start throwing his curve more and have been encouraging him to bounce it off the plate. Mauer has been terrible digging pitches out of the dirt both last season and thus far in 2013. That's why Mauer struggles with Deduno. So it wouldn't surprise me to see Doumit behind the plate when Liam pitches. Besides, Hendriks only problem in his last start was his fastball location and that has little to do with the back stop.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's why Mauer struggles with Deduno.

 

Mauer struggles with Deduno for the same reason everybody struggles with Deduno. It's hard to be an effective catcher when you line up low and outside and the ball goes over the batter's head.

[Badsmerf]

The thing is that the Twins really want Hendriks to start throwing his curve more and have been encouraging him to bounce it off the plate. Mauer has been terrible digging pitches out of the dirt both last season and thus far in 2013. That's why Mauer struggles with Deduno. So it wouldn't surprise me to see Doumit behind the plate when Liam pitches. Besides, Hendriks only problem in his last start was his fastball location and that has little to do with the back stop.

I disagree with you about both points. Mauer's defense wasn't spectacular last season, but he was also coming off weakness in his legs, which I think affected his entire game. I expect him to be much better this year, evidence by the opposite field HR last night.

 

I also don't agree with your assessment of Hendriks. His problem is nibbling, like Slowey used to. When he tries to paint a corner and misses (slight location problem I guess) he comes back and does it again and again instead of going after hitters and being aggressive. I think he has better stuff than Slowey, his curve looks like a nice pitch when he uses it. Pitching like Slowey is difficult. Slowey was only successful when he started to trust his stuff and not tiptoe around hitters. I know Slowey and Mauer didn't get along very well, but he had success when Mauer caught him. This is why I believe Mauer would be better for Hendriks than Doumit.

[cmathewson]

While I buy into *some* of the stats behind framing, I think it's somewhat overblown.

 

With that said, Hendriks lacks confidence. That's painfully apparent. When a pitcher is lacking in confidence, it's not a bad idea to put somebody behind the plate who is better at framing and handling pitchers, particularly when that catcher is also the best hitter on the team.

 

Let Doumit catch veterans like Pelfrey and Correia for the time being. It just makes sense.

 

This. Especially Corriea, whom he has caught with Pittsburgh. If I were the manager, I would just make Doumit Correia's personal catcher and let him DH the rest of the time.

 

I certainly would not blame the catcher for Hencriks' issues. He's fine as long as he attacks the strike zone. But good hitters sometimes hit good pitches. When that happens, he gets timid and starts nibbling primarily with offspeed pitches. This leads to being behind in the count and having to come in with fastballs toward the middle of the plate. Good hitters usually hit those pitches hard. And he spirals down from there. I've seen the pattern 20 times. His first start was no different.

 

Also, Doumit hurt his team worse in his first start by dropping a sure out at home on a perfect throw from Hicks and a perfect relay from Escobar.

[70charger]

Interesting question (maybe only to me):

 

When considering this...

 

Mauer 6g, 37.1 inn, 3.86 ERA

Doumit 6g, 28.1 inn, 7.94 ERA

 

...how much variation is there from game to game? I think there's going to be quite a large difference between the two catchers if there isn't much variation - e.g. Mauer catching six games where Liam pitches to a 3.00 - 4.50 ERA every single time and Doumit catching six games where Liam pitches to a 7.50 to 8.50 ERA every single time.

 

That's where it becomes obvious that the catchers are a major factor. Contrast that with this:

 

There may be no large difference at all between the catchers if there is a lot of variation - e.g. Mauer catching five games between 4.50 and 5.00 ERA and catching one complete game with a 1.00 ERA and Doumit catching five games between 4.50 and 5.00 ERA and also catching one game where Liam gives up six runs in the second and gets yanked.

 

In this case, the catchers are roughly equivalent, but Mauer just got a stroke of luck and Doumit just happened to be out there for an implosion. Averages are an interesting thing.

 

I'm not going to do the research, mainly because I'm already procrastinating at 10:00 AM, but if someone would, I'd be interested to see.

[Chance]

I'm not ready to get on board with framing pitches but I will say that some pitchers will feel comfortable throwing to a certain guy. It could be the way that they sit behind the plate or their shape. There had to be more to butera and Pavano than framing pitches.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting question (maybe only to me):

 

When considering this...

 

 

 

...how much variation is there from game to game? I think there's going to be quite a large difference between the two catchers if there isn't much variation - e.g. Mauer catching six games where Liam pitches to a 3.00 - 4.50 ERA every single time and Doumit catching six games where Liam pitches to a 7.50 to 8.50 ERA every single time.

 

That's where it becomes obvious that the catchers are a major factor. Contrast that with this:

 

There may be no large difference at all between the catchers if there is a lot of variation - e.g. Mauer catching five games between 4.50 and 5.00 ERA and catching one complete game with a 1.00 ERA and Doumit catching five games between 4.50 and 5.00 ERA and also catching one game where Liam gives up six runs in the second and gets yanked.

 

In this case, the catchers are roughly equivalent, but Mauer just got a stroke of luck and Doumit just happened to be out there for an implosion. Averages are an interesting thing.

 

I'm not going to do the research, mainly because I'm already procrastinating at 10:00 AM, but if someone would, I'd be interested to see.

 

Which is why data shouldn't be used in this manner. The OP may have a point (and I think he/she does) but using such small fragments of data in this way should be met with extreme skepticism.

 

SSSS (small sample sizes suck)

[cmathewson]

 

SSSS (small sample sizes suck)

 

One game of catching one pitcher is the paradigm case of small sample sizes. This is where the whole framing issue falls down, imho. The main problem with sss is the glut of variables. In this case, the uncontrolled variables mostly have to do with the umpires' varying strike zones not lining up with Pitch F/X. The larger the sample sizes, the smaller the margin for error in a stat set that does not control all variables. Framing is like UZR: It only has validity in sample sizes of about a season or more. This is my main issue with UZR/150. Extrapolating insights from small samples ignores the fact that the insights are within the margin of error.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is my main issue with UZR/150. Extrapolating insights from small samples ignores the fact that the insights are within the margin of error.

 

UZR/150 shouldn't be used by anyone, ever.

[Guest USAFChief]

Interesting question (maybe only to me):

 

When considering this...

 

 

 

...how much variation is there from game to game?

 

...

 

 

I'm not going to do the research, mainly because I'm already procrastinating at 10:00 AM, but if someone would, I'd be interested to see.

 

A quick down and dirty of Hendriks' 2013 and 2012 starts:

 

mo-yr / IP / ER / pitch count / Catcher

4-13 / 4.2 / 4 / 96 / Doumit

 

4-12 / 6 / 1 / 84 / Mauer

4-12 / 5.2 / 4 / 101 / Doumit

4-12 / 4 / 7 / 87 / Mauer

 

5-12 / 2.1 / 6 / 60 / Doumit

 

6-12 / 5 / 2 / 91 / Doumit

6-12 / 5+ / 3 / 94 / Doumit

6-12 / 6.1 / 3 / 92 / Mauer

 

7-12 / 4 / 4 / 81 / Doumit

 

8-12 / 5 / 4 / 97 / Butera

8-12 / 9 / 1 / 103 / Mauer

 

9-12 / 3.2 / 3 / 79 / Butera

9-12 / 5 / 4 / 108 / Mauer

9-12 / 5 / 3 / 98 / Butera

9-12 / 6 / 2 / 97 / Hemann

9-12 / 6.1/ 6 / 92 / Doumit

9-12 / 7 / 0 / 99 / Mauer

 

Not sure if this answers anything, but (forgive my lack of formatting skills) there's a quick down and dirty of Hendriks' starts since the beginning of last season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looks like Hendricks has only had 2-3 pretty good MLB starts anyway -- it may easily be a fluke that Mauer has been the catcher for those. He's also caught some of the duds.

[Guest USAFChief]

Looks like Hendricks has only had 2-3 pretty good MLB starts anyway -- it may easily be a fluke that Mauer has been the catcher for those. He's also caught some of the duds.

I tend to agree. IMO Hendriks' lack of success is about Hendriks, not who is catching.

[ashbury]

This. Especially Corriea, whom he has caught with Pittsburgh. If I were the manager, I would just make Doumit Correia's personal catcher and let him DH the rest of the time.

 

The one previous season they intersected, Correia did as well with Doumit as any of the other catchers, so why not. In a vacuum, I might think a guy like Correia who depends on command would suffer if a catcher has a poor reputation for framing pitches, and I would opt for another veteran, which right now would only be Pelfrey. If Liriano were still with the team, I'd pick him, or when Deduno makes his appearance I might opt for him; wild guys seem like they need a different skill set from a catcher than the framing we're focusing on here.

[Mr. Brooks]

One game of catching one pitcher is the paradigm case of small sample sizes. This is where the whole framing issue falls down, imho. The main problem with sss is the glut of variables. In this case, the uncontrolled variables mostly have to do with the umpires' varying strike zones not lining up with Pitch F/X. The larger the sample sizes, the smaller the margin for error in a stat set that does not control all variables. Framing is like UZR: It only has validity in sample sizes of about a season or more. This is my main issue with UZR/150. Extrapolating insights from small samples ignores the fact that the insights are within the margin of error.

 

The problem is with people citing UZR/150, not the stat itself.

UZR/150 should NOT be used to extrapolate, it should be used to condense.

Think of it like one might use the HR stat.

You shouldnt say a guy is a 30 HR/year guy, just because he hits 5 HR's in April. But you could say he's a 30 HR/year guy if he hits 90 over 3 seasons.

That is the same way UZR/150 should be used.

[jorgenswest]

The thing is that the Twins really want Hendriks to start throwing his curve more and have been encouraging him to bounce it off the plate. Mauer has been terrible digging pitches out of the dirt both last season and thus far in 2013. That's why Mauer struggles with Deduno. So it wouldn't surprise me to see Doumit behind the plate when Liam pitches. Besides, Hendriks only problem in his last start was his fastball location and that has little to do with the back stop.

 

Looking at brooks baseball, all of the missed strike calls were in the bottom of the strike zone last game.

 

Hendriks threw seven pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone.

 

1 called strike

1 foul

1 swinging strike

4 balls

 

If a pitcher can't get strike calls in the bottom if the zone, he has no choice but pitch up in the strike zone.

[Willihammer]

In one game, that could just be the umpire.

 

The question I would ask at this point is, is there a pattern to what pitches Mauer has the advantage (or disadvantage) over Doumit in framing, both in terms of pitch location and pitch type. For example, maybe Mauer is especially good at framing back-door breaking balls from lefthanders or inside 2-seem comebackers from righthanders, but Doumit gets more calls at the top of the zone or even catches more swings on misses on certain pitches (might sound ridiculous but I think its conceivable). In any case, Hendriks hasn't really established any sort of repeatable pattern where he can be successful so until he does I would think his spot in the rotation is as good a chance as any to give Mauer a day off.

[jorgenswest]

Game 2 with Doumit catching

 

According to Brooks baseball, Hendriks threw 7 pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone that were not swung. The result - 1 strike and 6 balls.

 

in his first game he threw 5 such pitches. The result - 1 strike and 4 balls

 

Must be the umpire...

 

In the KC game, Davis did not have a single pitch thrown anywhere in the strike zone called a ball. In the Baltimore game, Arrieta had two pitches (one in the bottom quarter) called a ball.

 

In two games with Doumit catching, Hendriks has thrown 12 umpire decision pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone and received only 2 strike calls.

 

Those 10 extra balls force him behind in counts and add significantly to his pitch count.

 

The manager's take...

 

- he needs to keep the ball down.

- he needs to keep his pitch count down.

 

The solution...

 

Send him to AAA

 

I wonder if the Twins are addressing the correct problem

note - as I am about to submit Bert is talking about Hendriks on the telecast. He says Liam needs to go down and work on locating his fastball. I guess it must be all on Liam.

[snepp]

"Work on locating his fastball" is Dickbert for, "learn a brand new pitch capable of getting major league hitters out."