MLB Trade Rumors looks at the Minnesota Twins

[Rosterman]

Always fun to read overviews of our Minnesota Twins, especially going into the offseason.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/twins-trade-rumors-offseason-byron-buxton-free-agency.html

Better yet to explore (and follow) the comments. you get reactions from those outside of Twins Territory.

[Doctor Gast]

If they are serious about not rebuilding, then their sole priority is to sign Buxton. If they play around and not sign Buxton they should go right out and sell the club. It'd be too painful to go through another "Twinkie Era" where they nearly moved.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

their sole priority is to sign Buxton.

Agreement on this priority is nearly unanimous; I agree too. However, Byron Buxton just watched his favorite team (as a kid) win the World Series. He is one year out from free agency on a team that has many questions, held him back to control his time, and knows that no matter the outcome of his own 2022 season that he is set for life financially. There are very few incentives for Buxton to sign a long term contract. The terms would have to meet his every wish. 

The Twins are in a tough spot with Byron. How high can they go, knowing the injury history? 7/$175? If the Twins decide to trade Buxton, there will be the inevitable backlash. Who specifically can the Twins get in a trade that makes it worth a trade? If San Diego would ship C. J. Abrams ... ok, but extremely unlikely. So it is a rock and a hard place scenario.

Buxton is the Twins main priority. Maybe just letting him play it out is an option and then surround him in a way that a Twins contract  looks more appealing later. If all else fails, Byron is healthy and playing well and he must be traded on July 31 or miss any return .... Well, play out the season or trade Buck then. I would start by signing Starling Marte and Javy Baez. Baez might just be a one year contract, if he is open. This would be followed by making several aggressive trades to bring in starting pitchers. The one lesson learned from the entire debacle surrounding Johan Santana was that it is an option to just let an impending free agent play out their contract. We all want to see one year of Buxton playing 150 games like his April and September from last season. He is just so damn much fun to watch.

 

[Doctor Gast]

36 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Agreement on this priority is nearly unanimous; I agree too. However, Byron Buxton just watched his favorite team (as a kid) win the World Series. He is one year out from free agency on a team that has many questions, held him back to control his time, and knows that no matter the outcome of his own 2022 season that he is set for life financially. There are very few incentives for Buxton to sign a long term contract. The terms would have to meet his every wish. 

The Twins are in a tough spot with Byron. How high can they go, knowing the injury history? 7/$175? If the Twins decide to trade Buxton, there will be the inevitable backlash. Who specifically can the Twins get in a trade that makes it worth a trade? If San Diego would ship C. J. Abrams ... ok, but extremely unlikely. So it is a rock and a hard place scenario.

Buxton is the Twins main priority. Maybe just letting him play it out is an option and then surround him in a way that a Twins contract  looks more appealing later. If all else fails, Byron is healthy and playing well and he must be traded on July 31 or miss any return .... Well, play out the season or trade Buck then. I would start by signing Starling Marte and Javy Baez. Baez might just be a one year contract, if he is open. This would be followed by making several aggressive trades to bring in starting pitchers. The one lesson learned from the entire debacle surrounding Johan Santana was that it is an option to just let an impending free agent play out their contract. We all want to see one year of Buxton playing 150 games like his April and September from last season. He is just so damn much fun to watch.

 

S. Marte will be very expensive because he's the really only CF on the market and demand for a real CF would be rightly ridiculous. Although CFs are in demand and there'll be a long line pursuing Buxton, none will pay what he's worth in trade. Buxton is a 5 tool player and is impacting in all of them. If FO sadly fail to sign Buxton now, I'd rather hold onto him for another year and offer him QO, while constantly try to sign him. As you mention J. Santana (who was healthy) got worthless players in return, who wasted space on the 40 man. Players in return for Buxton could potentially be worse. We've for a few years now, lack depth at CF, it'll be very difficult to find a CF that is 1/2 of Buxton to replace him. Celestino isn't ready yet, trading Buxton would create a large chasm. We shouldn't be substracting at CF but need to finally look to add an adequte sub for Buxton.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

S. Marte will be very expensive

He will be expensive. Marte can play a really good LF and with him on base in front of Baez and Buxton people will tune in to the games and want to be at Target Field. Like everyone else, i play around with rosters from $100-150 million. Marte is a perfect fit for my expensive team on a 4/$80 contract, though still at $145 million. Marte is not on my team at $100 million.

[TopGunn#22]

The idea of, failing to sign Buxton long term (which is VERY real) and just hanging onto him and offering him the QO as a last resort is a sound idea.  If Buxton is playing well, and healthy at the trade deadline, you'd also have a chance to get a much better package for him than what his currently LOW trade value is.  tonyandrodney pointing out the Johan Santana situation is spot on.  Certainly food for thought.

[ashbury]

On 11/13/2021 at 12:53 PM, Rosterman said:

Better yet to explore (and follow) the comments

Ugh.  I feel dumber just from reading those.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

There are very few incentives for Buxton to sign a long term contract. The terms would have to meet his every wish. 

The Twins are in a tough spot with Byron. How high can they go, knowing the injury history? 7/$175? ...

Everything you're saying here (this excerpt and beyond) makes sense.

Reports from the summer were that: negotiations on an extension had made headway; it was going to be an incentive-laden contract; and the point where the sides hadn't found agreement yet was not the base pay, but the incentives. The Athletic reported this, and maybe other outlets did too; the Athletic writers, at least, have referenced it again since the first report. Gleeman's point about this makes sense too: it's strange that incentives would be the hangup, since incentives would tend to come into play in a situation that was good for both sides.

So it's a little weird to square these sides of the situation. Did that report from the summer mischaracterize the level of agreement on the basic contract structure? Is a basis of an agreement actually in place, and they're waiting for the new CBA in order to revisit? Did one side change their minds?

[Brandon]

If Atlanta resigns Freeman they will likely not have room in their budget for Buxton.  Also their President of Operations AA is not a fan of long term contracts.  While I am sure Buxton would love to sign with the Braves, He would also love to sign with the Team who will pay him too.  And he does have the character to resign and stay planted where in a place he and his family know.  We do have pluses on our side of the ledger too.  The Twins are a known family oriented organization.  And Buxton has played his entire career here.... 

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

So it's a little weird to square these sides of the situation. Did that report from the summer mischaracterize the level of agreement on the basic contract structure? Is a basis of an agreement actually in place, and they're waiting for the new CBA in order to revisit? Did one side change their minds?

This is exactly what I was thinking. All of the reports were positive and incentives should be a win, win. My addition, totally speculative, is that Buxton wants to see what the Twins are going to do this offseason to address the team. Again, I just threw that out there. 

Sometimes there are players who want their contracts completed by Thanksgiving. This clears the holidays from distractions, questions, and allows for a breather in what can be a long year.

[dex8425]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

If Atlanta resigns Freeman they will likely not have room in their budget for Buxton.  Also their President of Operations AA is not a fan of long term contracts.  While I am sure Buxton would love to sign with the Braves, He would also love to sign with the Team who will pay him too.  And he does have the character to resign and stay planted where in a place he and his family know.  We do have pluses on our side of the ledger too.  The Twins are a known family oriented organization.  And Buxton has played his entire career here.... 

Braves also already have a young superstar roaming centerfield, and he is cheaply under long term team control. 

[MABB1959]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agreement on this priority is nearly unanimous; I agree too. However, Byron Buxton just watched his favorite team (as a kid) win the World Series. He is one year out from free agency on a team that has many questions, held him back to control his time, and knows that no matter the outcome of his own 2022 season that he is set for life financially. There are very few incentives for Buxton to sign a long term contract. The terms would have to meet his every wish. 

The stupidity of messing with his service time was one of the most fatal errors ever!  I am sure there are a number of teams that will sign him when he is a free agent for what he wants.  Teams that tend to be in the play-off picture every year.    Pretty sure most GM's see the writing on the wall and will not offer much either this off season or the next trade deadline.  They will wait until he is a free agent.  Maybe if a team see's him as a WS make it or break it player the Twins will get something.   I don't think the Twins will trade this off season so they don't see ticket sales tumble.  After Buxton we don't have much "excitement" left but Sano.  Polanco is good but just not the same when it comes to personality as Buxton and Sano.  That is it.  Not even a pitcher to look forward to unless Ober turns into Berrios II.  It is pathetic no matter which way you look at it.  We have been through this since at least 2010.  I don't care how many times they have won the division because it is just more heartbreak when they don't win a game let alone a series.  What "star" wants to be on a depressing team in the prime of their career?