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Who will win the 2021 AL Wild Cards?


Who will win the 2021 AL Wild Cards?  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win the 2021 AL Wild Cards? Or who do you want to win them? (Select 2)

    • New York Yankees
      9
    • Boston Red Sox
      7
    • Oakland Athletics
      11
    • Seattle Mariners
      3
    • Toronto Blue Jays
      9


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I still have a hard time believing the A's are gonna hit 94+ wins, which I think it might take to get a spot, so I'm guessing it'll be 2 of the AL East teams. Jays are running out of time to go on a run though, but they're underperformed their peripherals all year so they definitely have the goods to do it.

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The A's just lost their best starting pitcher and have a very rough schedule ahead. The Yankees have a bit of a rough schedule, and the Red Sox, Mariners and Blue Jays seem to have have 50/50 good/bad teams to finish out the year.

Even though I'd like to see a shake up in the playoffs, I don't think the Blue Jays or Mariners are likely to close the gap since neither one of them has a leg up on schedule, but I'd probably give the Blue Jays the edge as spoilers for Boston or NY.

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On 8/23/2021 at 2:16 PM, Otto von Ballpark said:

I suspect Oakland's odds were downgraded a bit last week when Chris Bassitt was struck by a line drive to the face. He's not officially out for the season, but he's going to miss most of it, and he had really emerged as their ace this season.

You nailed this one.  Their chances have dropped a lot already.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Here's how the AL Wild Card race stands as of now (Sep. 24), using Fangraphs "coin flip" odds:

TEAM W L PCT WCBG WC ODDS REMAINING SCHEDULE
Red Sox 88 65 .575 +2 94.4% 3 vs NYY; 3 at BAL; 3 at WSH
Yankees 86 67 .562 - 61.4% 3 at BOS; 3 at TOR; 3 vs TB
Blue Jays 85 68 .556 1 32.8% 3 at MIN; 3 vs NYY; 3 vs BAL
Mariners 84 69 .549 2 10.5% 3 at LAA; 3 vs OAK; 3 vs LAA
Athletics 82 71 .536 4 0.6% 3 vs HOU; 3 at SEA; 3 at HOU

I like to use the "coin flip" odds (every game is assumed to be 50/50) at this point because there are such a small number of games left and anything can happen, like the Twins winning. :) But FWIW, Toronto would be upgraded to 41.4%, with the Yankees and Mariners downgraded to 55.7% and 5.3% respectively, using Fangraphs projections instead of coin flips.

The Mariners have defeated the A's an incredible 9 times in a row now, 12-4 against them overall for the season. Just an even split there (7-7) would have had the A's tied with the Blue Jays now and the Mariners all but officially eliminated.

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2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Man, the Twins just love to help the Yankees out don't they?

Considering the Yankees and Blue Jays schedules, those odds seem off consider NY is only one game up.

The Yankees begin a 3 game series at Boston today followed by a 3 game series in Toronto. I'm obviously rooting for the Blue Jays, but I dislike rooting for the Twins means I have to help the Yankees, LOL

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