Who will win the 2021 AL Wild Cards?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Standings as of today (odds from FanGraphs) :

TEAM	W	L	PCT	WCGB	WC ODDS	DIV. ODDS
NY Yankees	72	52	.581	+2.5	61.8%	27.8%
Boston	70	55	.560	-	62.8%	9.8%
Oakland	70	55	.560	-	23.0%	7.1%
Seattle	67	58	.536	3	2.5%	0.4%
Toronto	64	58	.525	4.5	10.8%	0.4%

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wanted to include the Twins as an option, but then Twins Daily would have been legally obligated to perform a mental health check-up on anyone who chose that option.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I want the Jays and A's but that's a bit of a longshot. First and foremost I want to see Toronto make it because of their young, exciting team and it'd be fun to see Berríos in the postseason again.

[chpettit19]

I came here to say exactly what Brock said so I'll just say I agree with Brock.

[Dodecahedron]

I penciled in NY and Oakland, though it could very well be NY and Boston.

Oakland could also take their division, pushing Houston down to compete with Boston for the final WC slot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I suspect Oakland's odds were downgraded a bit last week when Chris Bassitt was struck by a line drive to the face. He's not officially out for the season, but he's going to miss most of it, and he had really emerged as their ace this season.

[Twinfan603]

I still have a hard time believing the A's are gonna hit 94+ wins, which I think it might take to get a spot, so I'm guessing it'll be 2 of the AL East teams. Jays are running out of time to go on a run though, but they're underperformed their peripherals all year so they definitely have the goods to do it.

[bean5302]

The A's just lost their best starting pitcher and have a very rough schedule ahead. The Yankees have a bit of a rough schedule, and the Red Sox, Mariners and Blue Jays seem to have have 50/50 good/bad teams to finish out the year.

Even though I'd like to see a shake up in the playoffs, I don't think the Blue Jays or Mariners are likely to close the gap since neither one of them has a leg up on schedule, but I'd probably give the Blue Jays the edge as spoilers for Boston or NY.

[jaimedude]

Who is to say Houston will not go in a slump and end up in the Wild card chase?

[Dodecahedron]

On 8/23/2021 at 2:16 PM, Otto von Ballpark said:

I suspect Oakland's odds were downgraded a bit last week when Chris Bassitt was struck by a line drive to the face. He's not officially out for the season, but he's going to miss most of it, and he had really emerged as their ace this season.

You nailed this one.  Their chances have dropped a lot already.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's how the AL Wild Card race stands as of now (Sep. 24), using Fangraphs "coin flip" odds:

TEAM	W	L	PCT	WCBG	WC ODDS	REMAINING SCHEDULE
Red Sox	88	65	.575	+2	94.4%	3 vs NYY; 3 at BAL; 3 at WSH
Yankees	86	67	.562	-	61.4%	3 at BOS; 3 at TOR; 3 vs TB
Blue Jays	85	68	.556	1	32.8%	3 at MIN; 3 vs NYY; 3 vs BAL
Mariners	84	69	.549	2	10.5%	3 at LAA; 3 vs OAK; 3 vs LAA
Athletics	82	71	.536	4	0.6%	3 vs HOU; 3 at SEA; 3 at HOU

I like to use the "coin flip" odds (every game is assumed to be 50/50) at this point because there are such a small number of games left and anything can happen, like the Twins winning.  But FWIW, Toronto would be upgraded to 41.4%, with the Yankees and Mariners downgraded to 55.7% and 5.3% respectively, using Fangraphs projections instead of coin flips.

The Mariners have defeated the A's an incredible 9 times in a row now, 12-4 against them overall for the season. Just an even split there (7-7) would have had the A's tied with the Blue Jays now and the Mariners all but officially eliminated.

[nicksaviking]

Man, the Twins just love to help the Yankees out don't they?

Considering the Yankees and Blue Jays schedules, those odds seem off consider NY is only one game up.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Man, the Twins just love to help the Yankees out don't they?

Considering the Yankees and Blue Jays schedules, those odds seem off consider NY is only one game up.

The Yankees begin a 3 game series at Boston today followed by a 3 game series in Toronto. I'm obviously rooting for the Blue Jays, but I dislike rooting for the Twins means I have to help the Yankees, LOL