it's time to move on from Veterans like Simmons, Donaldson, maybe even pitchers like Shoemaker and JA Happ

[jaimedude]

I am so ready to see this team turn the page on veterans. If your going to have this many errors, misplay's in the field and strikeouts why continue to waste at bats,

and innings played in the field on guy's like Simmons, Donaldson, JA Happ and Matt Shoemaker. I mean this is already almost the end of May, the Twins have the worst record and baseball and were already playing with names that you didn't expect to play in the line-up this year. So ready to not see Luis Araez playing any more left field. I'm not saying just outright DFA all of the guy's mentioned but trade them for lottery tickets in Class A or low A minors or instructional league level players. I would rather see a guy like Nick Gordon get a shot at Short Stop, or even have Miguel Sano play some third base, really could it be any worse than doing that right now. There is no sense in continuing to have this same level of play, to me they have to turn the page, realize the sunk cost on the roster and try to play for a better future. They will not change things around with this roster and this group, it's not going to work out like that, this should be pretty evident to the management and leadership of this Twins baseball club by now. 

[Nick Nelson]

I definitely relate to the frustration. Donaldson's not going anywhere. Simmons could have some trade value but they'll wait until July before moving him. Same for Happ. I wonder about how long Shoemaker's leash will be, he was decent last time out. 

I'm all about getting Gordon up and finding ways to get him semi-regular time. Perfect opportunity for that. I think he might be hurt though? 

[insagt1]

Donaldson and Simmons have been very large disappointments. Both have not dazzled defensively..when it counts and neither one of them are producing the offense we expected...especially Donaldson.

[stringer bell]

Donaldson's situation is a Catch-22. If he goes hard on every play, it's more than likely he will pull his calf muscle again. If he doesn't, he looks like he's not trying. The Twins didn't sign Donaldson so that they could claim third place in the Central, so his signing looks like a colossal waste.

Simmons is pretty much as advertised. The only thing surprising to me is the lack of leg speed when running the bases. He doesn't have a gun for an arm, but neither did the all-time greatest defensive shortstop, Ozzie Smith.

Happ and Shoemaker both have had good and bad outings. They need to have good command and if they're off by much, they'll get hit hard. It seems that each guy got two starts against their worst possible matchup (Happ vs. White Sox, Shoemaker vs. Athletics) and they both got knocked around pretty hard. A team looking to make postseason might take a chance on either as long as they're healthy. 

What about Cruz? He's only a DH and he's been insanely productive for the Twins, but he'll be 41 in just over two months and he has slipped some this month. I don't think he's part of the Twins future, so regrettably maybe he should be moved, as well.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

30 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Donaldson and Simmons have been very large disappointments. Both have not dazzled defensively..when it counts and neither one of them are producing the offense we expected...especially Donaldson.

Donaldson has a 133 wRC+ this season. His career mark is 139.

Simmon has an 89 wRC+ this season.  His career mark is 90.

The defensive miscues from both have been a surprise, though. 

[Dodecahedron]

This will be the first time this front office will be in a position to sell at the trade deadline.  We don't know what they will do, but they will no doubt do something.

I don't know why we are targeting Donaldson so much.  This would create a hole at 3B and would be very reminiscent of the holes Ryan created when he sold off pieces.  The same goes for Kepler and even Polanco.  It took the Twins years to solve those problems when Ryan did this in his second round at the job.

If the Twins are smart, they will focus on moving Sano, Astudillo, and Cruz.  These are players the Twins can afford to lose without creating other problems.  Before you hit reply, yes all three of them will have short-term value to a playoff-bound team.  On the pitching side, it seems appealing to sell everything, but again the Twins have to think about creating holes that they can't resolve for years to come.  Some players should go, but it should be done in a measured, incremental way.  It's difficult to imagine a playoff team being interested in any of the pitching chaff the Twins should jettison, and the Twins should not get rid of anyone who has future potential as it seems they have very little depth in the minors.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Donaldson has a 133 wRC+ this season. His career mark is 139.

Simmon has an 89 wRC+ this season.  His career mark is 90.

The defensive miscues from both have been a surprise, though. 

The thing is, they've both been very good defensively overall (according to the numbers). Simmons ranks 3rd in MLB in OAA and JD's been well above avg. But they've both made errors and mistakes at the absolute worst possible moments.

It's kind of like the offense, and maybe even the Twins as a team -- pretty good overall, but so bad in crunch time. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

35 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The thing is, they've both been very good defensively overall (according to the numbers). Simmons ranks 3rd in MLB in OAA and JD's been well above avg. But they've both made errors and mistakes at the absolute worst possible moments.

It's kind of like the offense, and maybe even the Twins as a team -- pretty good overall, but so bad in crunch time. 

For sure. Donaldson looks like he still has great range and reaction times but his hands have inexplicably turned to lead at critical times.

Like most things about the 2021 Twins, their defense has been inexplicable.

[insagt1]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Donaldson has a 133 wRC+ this season. His career mark is 139.

Simmon has an 89 wRC+ this season.  His career mark is 90.

The defensive miscues from both have been a surprise, though. 

what exactly is wRC+ (for the uneducated!)  and does that stat take into account that Donaldson is not getting key hits for us when we need them? And yes indeed....their 'd' has been an unwelcome surprise. Donaldson's blunders have come at pivotal times in the game and have been very costly. Much more than 'the norm' is expected of him...and we aren't really getting it.

[tony&rodney]

The solution is to run off 15 wins in a row.

[Dodecahedron]

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The solution is to run off 15 wins in a row.

Yeah, but that's been done already by the 1991 Twins, June 1st - 16th, after their slow start.

This team has to do 25 wins in a row, minimum, for the baseball gods to be appeased.  Following the 1991 Twins model, all they need is 1B, DH, RF to start hitting like crazy, 2.5 ace starters, and two relief pitchers who do what they are supposed to do.  And to get 10 more wins out of this 1991 model:  Astudillo.

[jaimedude]

56 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The solution is to run off 15 wins in a row.

I would absolutely love that but don't see it with the current make up of the team. I think moving Sano back to third base some would get him moving more and get his bat going a little better. I'm not anti Donaldson or Simmons they just seem like a luxury on a non-contending, needs to start building something Twins team. I would rather see more young starters like Ober get chances than keep trotting Happ and Shoemaker to the mound, I don't see how this team rebounds from the start to this season. It is getting late early. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, insagt1 said:

what exactly is wRC+ (for the uneducated!)  and does that stat take into account that Donaldson is not getting key hits for us when we need them? And yes indeed....their 'd' has been an unwelcome surprise. Donaldson's blunders have come at pivotal times in the game and have been very costly. Much more than 'the norm' is expected of him...and we aren't really getting it.

weighted runs created uses over 100 years of data to say how valuable every at bat is....but does not take into the context of the game. WPA (win probability added) does take into account the game situation.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa/

https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/wrc/

[bighat]

6 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Donaldson's situation is a Catch-22. If he goes hard on every play, it's more than likely he will pull his calf muscle again. If he doesn't, he looks like he's not trying. The Twins didn't sign Donaldson so that they could claim third place in the Central, so his signing looks like a colossal waste......

What about Cruz? He's only a DH and he's been insanely productive for the Twins, but he'll be 41 in just over two months and he has slipped some this month. I don't think he's part of the Twins future, so regrettably maybe he should be moved, as well.

 

Agree 100%. Donaldson's signing looks like a terrible deal. The guy's going to hit 25 HR this year and he's clearly on the downside of his career. The Twins would take that one back in a heartbeat if they could. He was supposed to be THE guy, instead he just looks like a serviceable 3rd baseman.

As for Cruz, I see nothing regrettable about trading him. If we can get some prospects back for what is essentially a 3 month rental, I'd be thrilled. The Twins traded Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar when they had to, and those guys were arguably much bigger parts of the organization than Cruz is currently. I'd be happy to see him traded and wish him the best.

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea how people think Donaldson is "serviceable" or bad or whatever.....he's a top 10 3B this year. Is he everything we all hoped right now? No. No he is not. But he's still well above average.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, insagt1 said:

what exactly is wRC+ (for the uneducated!)  and does that stat take into account that Donaldson is not getting key hits for us when we need them? And yes indeed....their 'd' has been an unwelcome surprise. Donaldson's blunders have come at pivotal times in the game and have been very costly. Much more than 'the norm' is expected of him...and we aren't really getting it.

wRC+ is context neutral. You’d want WPA (win probability added) for situational performance. 

wRC+ is basically like OPS+ except a little better because it attempts to properly weight the true value of, say,  a double versus a home run in relation to the number of runs each is worth (whereas OPS+ uses raw OBP + SLG numbers, which are good but flawed because each base added is weighted equally). 

[tony&rodney]

Since I have no live friendships with any of the current Twins, I like them all and hope they are successful in their careers and beyond. That is a fan viewpoint. No use in any fashion to judge their personhood without real knowledge of who they are as humans.

As a critical fan, however, my observations questioned the Twins offseason strategy from November. Bullpens, in the current game, are very critical to success. Is it possible that a total lockdown bullpen would have completely changed the course of the season early on and then help to maintain a positive course? This was a profound misjudgment on the management. Then, all pitchers need to know they can burry the ball in the dirt at any time, particularly with a runner on 3B. Rortvedt was just sent down and he is the only catcher the Twins have who blocked balls and received low pitches gracefully. As a former pitcher, this is a real downer, a real bad downer. Throwing to a catcher instead of a DH is a world of difference for a pitcher. The difference is understated. For evidence - Drew Butera is still in the major leagues; he is a catcher. Next, players out of position are doomed to fail. If a utility player like Chris Taylor, Marwin, or the best ever, Cesar Tovar, can play a different position every day and play it above average we should be aware of their rare talent. Sano was a disaster in RF and Arraez is suffering at the plate when he plays LF. He comes in on singles or balls hit in front of him safely with great enthusiasm and skill, but anything airbornes is traumatic. Finally, the swings that are all identical for too many players is out of touch. Hitting the ball on the nose is an accomplishment that each batter should aspire to in every at bat. The Twins give away way too many at bats and flail helplessly at times, seemingly paying no attention to how the opposing pitcher is attacking them. We don't need more homeruns, we need more bat on the ball. It was really interesting to hear Rod Carew talk about the shift, bunting, line drives, and swing path during the third inning of the Angel's broadcast Thursday. Rod was as smart of a baseball player that lived in my lifetime.

Tonight the Twins begin their drive for the pennant.

[Dodecahedron]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea how people think Donaldson is "serviceable" or bad or whatever.....he's a top 10 3B this year. Is he everything we all hoped right now? No. No he is not. But he's still well above average.

I agree, I think it's harsh.  I was always skeptical of his signing, but he is contributing.  He is "serviceable" that's for sure. 

[SomeGuy]

One thing to consider when looking at Twins offensive numbers. Offense is way down across MLB so far. It is picking up lately but the league average stat line would be considered a poor hitter.

 

2021 league average

.236 batting ave/ .312 On-base%/ ,394 Slug%/ .706 OPS/ 24.2K%

 

(twins have 6 players with an OPS higher than .706 and at least 89 plate appearances.  8 players if the plate appearances is lowered to include Kirilloff and Larnach)

 

2019 League average

.252/ .323/ .435/ .758/ 23.0 K%

[LA Vikes Fan]

The logical trade candidates are, in order, Simmons, Happ, Cruz, Shoemaker. This is assuming that Happ gets back to competent pitching, which I think is likely, and Shoemaker is at least decent. Frankly, Shoemaker might actually be a quality reliever. I would love to see the Twins try him in that role 1st over the next month before looking to trade him since he won't get much in return. The other 3 are clearly one year guys, maybe 2 years in the case of Cruz but Father Time is going to get him eventually, so there definitely people to trade if you can get even a halfway decent return.

Robles and Colome are also logical trade candidates but I wouldn't jump at trading either 1 of them. I would like him to re-sign Robles. He can actually be your 1B closer for the next year or 2. He's done it before. Trading Colome now would be a classic case of trading low so unless he really picks up the pace before the All-Star break, and there are some signs he might be, he won't bring much of a return. There is a mutual option for next year with him so he might be worth keeping around on a creative deal made to either keep him or exercise the option and then trade him to his preferred destination in the off-season. I think that's worth more than a couple A ball lottery tickets which is probably all we could get in trade.

I see and hear a lot of other names being bandied about but I wouldn't trade any of those players. Sano won't fetch a lot right now given his performance, and the potential if the lightbulb goes on is worth the cost. Same with Kepler,  although the potential is far less, and he actually is an affordable 3rd/4th Outfielder under his current deal. Polanco is a starting quality MLB 2nd baseman, and a below average starting SS in the field with an above average bat. Not that easy to find and not something to trade. Donaldson isn't going to get us much of a return unless we subsidize his salary with another team and then what's the point? He is what he is, probably overpaid for his production, but still the top 10 starting 3rd baseman in MLB. The salary is what it is; it's a sunk cost and it is almost always a mistake to chase after your sunk costs. We need to keep the guys that actually might have value on the trade market like Rogers unless we want to commit to a complete tear down and rebuild and I don't think we need to do that quite yet.

The elephants in the room are Barrios and Buxton. It pains me to say this because I want to keep both of them until the last possible minute, but it does make logical sense to see by this July or at least this off-season whether you can sign them to a longer term contract before trading them and trade them if you can't. I think Barrios is going to command 15 – $20 million a year on a 4 year deal as a solid number 2 starter, and more if you think he's a true number 1 because that's what the market will pay him 18 months from now when he is a free agent. Any discount would solely be for the risk of injury in the next 18 months. Buxton is tougher because you just don't know what you're going to get when he plays and you don't know how much he is going to play. With that said, I think he is going to be worth $12-$15 million a year are 4 or 5 year deal at least, and may be more. I would sign both of those players at those prices if they would sign the contract. Don't wait for a "team friendly" deal from these guys, it's too late to get that.

So that's what I would do, trade Simmons, Cruz, Happ and, if he can get anything for him, Shoemaker. This creates room for Dobnak. Thorpe, Duran, Balzovic and Ober to get some starts this year so you know who can fill your bottom 2 spots next year. Re-sign Pineda if you can or replace him with a free agent in the off-season. Again, don't trade Pineda or Robles unless you know for sure that you can't re-sign them AND you get offered something that actually is meaningful other than lottery tickets.  Give Colome time to rebuild some value and get creative in the off-season if you want to move him. There is room in that bullpen to give Vasquez, Cano and even Chalmers, Sands or Winder a shot in the bullpen or maybe even the rotation this year. Make sure they get that shot.

The goal here is to use this season to develop and evaluate, not to worry about where we finish on the 70-85 win continuum. Trading even the 4 veterans I mentioned gives us that roster flexibility, particularly with Cruz gone so we can run a different guy in the DH spot every day to get at bats. I hate to bail on the season on May 20 but let's face it, it's time. 

 

[SomeGuy]

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Again, don't trade Pineda or Robles unless you know for sure that you can't re-sign them AND you get offered something that actually is meaningful other than lottery tickets.  Give Colome time to rebuild some value and get creative in the off-season if you want to move him. There is room in that bullpen to give Vasquez, Cano and even Chalmers, Sands or Winder a shot in the bullpen or maybe even the rotation this year. Make sure they get that shot.

 

 

I would trade Pineda for the opposite reason, we don't know we can re-sign him.  He is probably our most valuable chip after Cruz and I think we have to cash in.  Probably doesn't hurt our chances at him in the offseason either.  He knows how this works and he would probably prefer a playoff run to seeing this out with the Twins.  The big factor on re-signability is how competitive the 2022 Twins will appear to Free Agents.

[Dodecahedron]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

Agree 100%. Donaldson's signing looks like a terrible deal. The guy's going to hit 25 HR this year and he's clearly on the downside of his career. The Twins would take that one back in a heartbeat if they could. He was supposed to be THE guy, instead he just looks like a serviceable 3rd baseman..

He kind of is the guy.  His offensive production right now, on the downside of his career, equals the person he replaced at 3B at his peak (OPS+).  His defense is unquestionably better over there, too, even if he is not perfect.

Injuries suck, but his games played is not far behind the league qualifiers.  

What's wrong with 25 home runs?  (I think your estimate is high, mind you, but I would take 25 home runs from almost anybody).

I would not have signed Donaldson, and I admit I'm still very questioning of his future.  But hey, he's doing his job.  The Twins goal with signing Donaldson was probably two-fold:  minimize the offensive drop-off at the position from Sano (check), and improve the defense (check).  

[SomeGuy]

8 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

He kind of is the guy.  His offensive production right now, on the downside of his career, equals the person he replaced at 3B at his peak (OPS+).  His defense is unquestionably better over there, too, even if he is not perfect.

Injuries suck, but his games played is not far behind the league qualifiers.  

What's wrong with 25 home runs?  (I think your estimate is high, mind you, but I would take 25 home runs from almost anybody).

I would not have signed Donaldson, and I admit I'm still very questioning of his future.  But hey, he's doing his job.  The Twins goal with signing Donaldson was probably two-fold:  minimize the offensive drop-off from Sano (check), and improve the defense (check).  

Yeah he has been fine this year.  His average exit velocity are right in line with his career numbers.  His hard hit% is higher than normal.  All said he is aging really well.  His only concern is that he gets injured.  He won't have the MVP seasons he used to have but no one really expected that and he wasn't paid like we were expecting any more than we are getting.

I don't see anything wrong with the signing yet aside from the bad luck of a pandemic knocking out most of his youngest season with us.