Article: TD: Twins Top Prospects: #8 JO Berrios

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1353-TD-Twins-Top-Prospects-8-JO-Berrios

[righty8383]

I challenge anyone to watch that video and NOT smile.

[LastOnePicked]

Nice work. I would gladly welcome that kind of crying over the kind we've endured over the last few years. If this whole organization can turn it around for and with these young players, we might have a shot later in the decade. Time will tell.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Thanks again, Seth, and thanks righty8383 for prompting me to push "play". You made my day.

[Han Joelo]

Awesome, just awesome. I keep reading about his confidence and mature approach, and I think I can actually see it in his eyes. I really like this kid.

[LewFordLives]

When you do your Twins top prospects list next year it wouldn't surprise me if Berrios is #1.

[gunnarthor]

I think I'm rooting for Berrios more than any other prospect we have.

 

Just to add though, a few mocks had him going in the end of the first round and some Rangers and Yankee fansites really wanted them to grab Berrios. So the Twins certainly didn't reach to draft him first in the supplemental. Nice pick for us.

[Seth Stohs]

When you do your Twins top prospects list next year it wouldn't surprise me if Berrios is #1.

 

I'll be honest. I can certainly see him jumping up to #3. I'd be a little surprised if he gets above Sano and Buxton, but if he does make the case to be considered for #1, we all will be very happy!! He does have some serious talent and potential.

[Kwak]

"He will need to locate his off-speed pitches more consistantly and develop at least one of them into a go-to out pitch."--Steil Director of Minor League Operations

This is unexpected. Other than Santana, Twins' pitchers did not have an "out" pitch. They simply "pitched-to-contact". I conclude that either there has been a change in philosophy or Mr. Steil is in need of a "re-education seminar." I certainly hope it is a change, because Berrios sounds like just the guy the Twins need at the top of the rotation.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I hope kid gets shot in midwest league, given Twins history with pitchers picks, my biggest hope is he avoids the dreaded arm injury path that often seems to include Tommy John surgery...

[Seth Stohs]

"He will need to locate his off-speed pitches more consistantly and develop at least one of them into a go-to out pitch."--Steil Director of Minor League Operations

This is unexpected. Other than Santana, Twins' pitchers did not have an "out" pitch. They simply "pitched-to-contact". I conclude that either there has been a change in philosophy or Mr. Steil is in need of a "re-education seminar." I certainly hope it is a change, because Berrios sounds like just the guy the Twins need at the top of the rotation.

 

I don't think it's really a change in philosophy as much as finding a guy who has that kind of stuff in the draft at that spot.

[PseudoSABR]

This is unexpected. Other than Santana, Twins' pitchers did not have an "out" pitch. They simply "pitched-to-contact". I conclude that either there has been a change in philosophy or Mr. Steil is in need of a "re-education seminar." I certainly hope it is a change, because Berrios sounds like just the guy the Twins need at the top of the rotation.

Unlike Seth, it's pretty clear to me that there's been a shift in how the Twins acquire young arms from last years draft to May and Meyers.

[Seth Stohs]

Unlike Seth, it's pretty clear to me that there's been a shift in how the Twins acquire young arms from last years draft to May and Meyers.

 

When else in recent years did they acquire young arms via trade? Scott Diamond came through the Rule 5 draft. In the last several drafts, they have clearly gone after some power arms. Ben Tootle threw 100. Matt Bashore threw 97 before all his arm issues. Billy Bullock was in the upper-90s. Kyle Gibson hits 94, but he has "out" pitches. Wimmer's changeup was considered on 'out' pitch. In the 2012 draft, they drafted a lot of power arms (Bard's FB/SL, Melotakis (98), Chargois (97), Jones (100). Tyler Jones hits 95.

 

Santana touched 96, I guess, but he was generally 91-92 with the FB. His changeup was his 'out' pitch.

[FrodaddyG]

When else in recent years did they acquire young arms via trade? Scott Diamond came through the Rule 5 draft. In the last several drafts, they have clearly gone after some power arms. Ben Tootle threw 100. Matt Bashore threw 97 before all his arm issues. Billy Bullock was in the upper-90s. Kyle Gibson hits 94, but he has "out" pitches. Wimmer's changeup was considered on 'out' pitch. In the 2012 draft, they drafted a lot of power arms (Bard's FB/SL, Melotakis (98), Chargois (97), Jones (100). Tyler Jones hits 95.

 

Santana touched 96, I guess, but he was generally 91-92 with the FB. His changeup was his 'out' pitch.

You beat me to the Tootle/Bashore/Bullock "power arm change in philosophy" draft. I just hope now they're shifting towards GOOD power arms.

[FrodaddyG]

"He will need to locate his off-speed pitches more consistantly and develop at least one of them into a go-to out pitch."--Steil Director of Minor League Operations

This is unexpected. Other than Santana, Twins' pitchers did not have an "out" pitch. They simply "pitched-to-contact". I conclude that either there has been a change in philosophy or Mr. Steil is in need of a "re-education seminar." I certainly hope it is a change, because Berrios sounds like just the guy the Twins need at the top of the rotation.

Most pitchers don't need to work too hard on an "out" pitch when they are incapable of throwing three pitches in the strike zone without the batter being able to put one of them in play. And Frankie Liriano's slider takes offense to your "other than Santana" comment.

[nicksaviking]

"He will need to locate his off-speed pitches more consistantly and develop at least one of them into a go-to out pitch."--Steil Director of Minor League Operations

This is unexpected. Other than Santana, Twins' pitchers did not have an "out" pitch. They simply "pitched-to-contact". I conclude that either there has been a change in philosophy or Mr. Steil is in need of a "re-education seminar." I certainly hope it is a change, because Berrios sounds like just the guy the Twins need at the top of the rotation.

 

Ha, yup I read that and thought, "How in the hell did any other Twins pitchers get promoted in the last decade?"

[nicksaviking]

When else in recent years did they acquire young arms via trade? Scott Diamond came through the Rule 5 draft. In the last several drafts, they have clearly gone after some power arms. Ben Tootle threw 100. Matt Bashore threw 97 before all his arm issues. Billy Bullock was in the upper-90s. Kyle Gibson hits 94, but he has "out" pitches. Wimmer's changeup was considered on 'out' pitch. In the 2012 draft, they drafted a lot of power arms (Bard's FB/SL, Melotakis (98), Chargois (97), Jones (100). Tyler Jones hits 95.

 

Santana touched 96, I guess, but he was generally 91-92 with the FB. His changeup was his 'out' pitch.

 

It turned out to be a good trade, but the Twins did swap hard throwing Bullock for noodle armed Diamond. I also doubt Wimmers change up will be any more of an "out" pitch than it was for Brad Radke. The Twins have been drafting harder throwers for the last few years but it really didn't seem to be an organizational mandate until last year's draft.

 

Why else was every draft prognosticator able to correctly peg Alex Wimmers going to the Twins in 2010 even though they did not pick until #21? Even though Wimmers was thought of as close to MLB ready, none of the 20 teams ahead of the Twins thought he was worth the pick because he had very little upside due to his non-dominating stuff. Yet everyone correctly said he was going to be drafted by our favorite team, simply because their pitching philosophy was painted on their forehead for all to see.

[PseudoSABR]

When else in recent years did they acquire young arms via trade? Scott Diamond came through the Rule 5 draft. In the last several drafts, they have clearly gone after some power arms. Ben Tootle threw 100. Matt Bashore threw 97 before all his arm issues. Billy Bullock was in the upper-90s. Kyle Gibson hits 94, but he has "out" pitches. Wimmer's changeup was considered on 'out' pitch. In the 2012 draft, they drafted a lot of power arms (Bard's FB/SL, Melotakis (98), Chargois (97), Jones (100). Tyler Jones hits 95.

 

Santana touched 96, I guess, but he was generally 91-92 with the FB. His changeup was his 'out' pitch.

It's the draft combined with the acquisition of May/Meyers that certainly seems to emphasize high-ceiling high-velocity arms than in years past. Of course the Twins haven't exactly shied away from power arms, but they haven't consistently emphasized it either, that's what's changed.

[Seth Stohs]

I think people make far too much out of velocity. yes, you've got Verlander and Sale and guys like that that throw hard. Guys like Sabathia and Cain became more successful as they have lost some of their velocity and mixed in their other pitches. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay don't hit 93 on the radar very often. it's not about velocity. it's about having movement and three quality pitches.

 

Bashore and Tootle were 'good power arms' who just got hurt. that is more likely to happen when you draft power arms. Bullock, like most power arms, just can't throw strikes.

 

To be fair, Radke was pretty good. Wimmers was always believed to be a #3, and assuming he comes back at 100%, probably still will be. It's not about velocity, it's about location and effectiveness/movement of pitches.

 

Again, Santana didn't throw real, real hard. Don't get me wrong. I love the draft strategy last year, and in 2009 (Gibson, Bashore, Bullock, Tootle). Gibson should be a solid starter, maybe even a solid #2 type in time. There is a certain amount of luck in the draft. There is a reason that generally 1 player from the draft each year actually makes it. If you can get more than one, it's a terrific draft.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Watched that video last year, but happily watched it again.

 

My question, only partially in jest, is whether Berrios would be one of the five best SP the Twins could start THIS year. Meaning, would Berrios actually give the Twins the best chance to win games this year, despite not having pitched in A ball yet?

 

Here is a more serious question. When is the last time the Twins have had a pitcher put up these kind of numbers in short season ball?

[Steve Lein]

Also, the thing about "good power arms" is, if they have any semblance of command and secondary pitches to be a starter, they get drafted in the top 10 picks, and the Twins hadn't been that high up on the draft board for like 10+ years until last year. Yes, they did draft a bunch of guys who can throw 95+, but none of them are sure bets to stick as starters (or even were starters, and I'd label most as longshots), and several of them are pure relievers, such is why they were not drafted all that high.

 

It's an interesting philosophy that they took in drafting these guys in the hopes one or two may develop into a useful starter, and hopefully it works out, but it's not going to surprise me if it doesn't. But there's also a few of those guys who could rise to the Twins very quickly in a relief role, like Chargois, Melotakis. I even remember some saying Chargois was a guy who should be sent to AA right away in an attempt to get him to the MLB bullpen as quickly as possible, and that he was the best pure RP in the draft. I wonder how quick the Twins will try to move him.

[Seth Stohs]

Watched that video last year, but happily watched it again.

 

My question, only partially in jest, is whether Berrios would be one of the five best SP the Twins could start THIS year. Meaning, would Berrios actually give the Twins the best chance to win games this year, despite not having pitched in A ball yet?

 

Here is a more serious question. When is the last time the Twins have had a pitcher put up these kind of numbers in short season ball?

 

Pretty much every year (check out Tyler Duffey's numbers at ET, but not by 17-18 year olds! Rainville, Swarzak and Waldrop were all pretty dominant in their rookie ball season. But Berrios certainly has better stuff than those guys did at the same time.

[Steve Lein]

Here is a more serious question. When is the last time the Twins have had a pitcher put up these kind of numbers in short season ball?

 

It's actually quite common with the Twins, at least in regards to K numbers. See also:

 

Chargois, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, and Josh Burris last year (not really starters though), then

Matt Summers in 2011

Manuel Soliman, Pat Dean, and Martire Garcia in 2010

Dan Osterbrock and Shooter Hunt in 2008

 

You will notice that these rookie level numbers did not accurately predict future success for these guys, so temper some of those feelings. But I do agree that Berrios is likely better than anybody here, and I also think he could rise on Twins Top 10 prospect lists a lot faster than he does through the system. He's an out-of-HS arm with not a lot pro-innings or experience, so it's not like they're going to let him throw 150 innings next year. I'd probably max him out around 120 or lower (for reference, the last HS-drafted arm I can think of who might be worth something, B.J. Hermsen, threw 110 innings the next season after throwing around 50 innings in rookie leagues the year before)

[PseudoSABR]

Bashore and Tootle were 'good power arms' who just got hurt. that is more likely to happen when you draft power arms.

I'm not sure that's true. And I hope that the Twins have learned from drafting Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Wimmers, and GIbson, that command guys get hurt an awful lot too.

 

No one's arguing with the many different avenues for pitchers to be successful or earn strikeouts. Rather, it's been clear, at least to me, that the Twins have shied away from 'power' arms for a decade or more with their high draft picks and trade targets (exceptions noted); this past year of young pitching acquisitions seems like a new approach to me. I could be wrong, but I hope not.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not sure that's true. And I hope that the Twins have learned from drafting Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Wimmers, and GIbson, that command guys get hurt an awful lot too.

 

No one's arguing with the many different avenues for pitchers to be successful or earn strikeouts. Rather, it's been clear, at least to me, that the Twins have shied away from 'power' arms for a decade or more with their high draft picks and trade targets (exceptions noted); this past year of young pitching acquisitions seems like a new approach to me. I could be wrong, but I hope not.

 

I think it's hard to say the "shed away" from so much as didn't have as many opportunities. I mean this was the same FO that grabbed Santana, Liriano, Boof and created an incredibly hard throwing bullpen (Nathan, Crain, Rincon etc). They aren't afraid of strike outs. They jumped on Garza when they had the chance. Perkins, before his surgery, threw pretty hard. Clearly, the Twins found a market inefficiency in control guys. I'm not sure why that's a bad thing since they got a lot of production from later round control guys. Johnson has been focusing on flame throwers since 08.

[PseudoSABR]

Clearly, the Twins found a market inefficiency in control guys.

I think that may have been true at one time; but really are you exploiting a market inefficiency when you're spending first round picks on it? It's not like Gibson, Wimmers, Baker, Slowey were drafted in the tenth round or were trade throw-ins.

 

Again, when you collect a decades worth of power arms in one sentence, I think that says something about an organization's preference. I'm surprised this is even a debatable issue.

[gunnarthor]

I think that may have been true at one time; but really are you exploiting a market inefficiency when you're spending first round picks on it? It's not like Gibson, Wimmers, Baker, Slowey were drafted in the tenth round or were trade throw-ins.

 

Again, when you collect a decades worth of power arms in one sentence, I think that says something about an organization's preference. I'm surprised this is even a debatable issue.

 

? The Twins have drafted the following pitchers in the first round over the since 2000: 2000 - Johnson (Heilman didn't sign); 04 - Fox, Waldrop, Rainville, Perkins; 05 - Garza; 08 - Hunt and Gutierrez; 09 - Gibson; 10 - Wimmers; 11 - Boyd; 12 - Berrios and Bard. Johnson, Rainville, Perkins, Garza, Hunt, Gutierrez, Gibson, Boyd, Berrios and Bard were all probably better classified as hard throwers. Fox, Waldrop and Wimmers fit more in the control category. Second round is pretty much the same, too. Slowey being the only 2nd rounder that would probably be called a control guy in that period. I think that points out how difficult making the majors is let alone finding Santana like pitchers.

[Top Gun]

Anthony Swarzak will miss a month after fracturing two ribs late last month in a non-baseball related activity.

 

Swarzak suffered the injury while horsing with around with teammates at the team's recent TwinsFest event. His absence will stretch into the Grapefruit League schedule. The 27-year-old had a 5.03 ERA and 62/31 K/BB ratio over 96 2/3 innings last season and is expected to operate as a long reliever in 2013.

 

Source: Tyler Mason on Twitter

[FrodaddyG]

Anthony Swarzak will miss a month after fracturing two ribs late last month in a non-baseball related activity.

 

Swarzak suffered the injury while horsing with around with teammates at the team's recent TwinsFest event. His absence will stretch into the Grapefruit League schedule. The 27-year-old had a 5.03 ERA and 62/31 K/BB ratio over 96 2/3 innings last season and is expected to operate as a long reliever in 2013.

 

Source: Tyler Mason on Twitter

Seriously, what the ****?

[Kwak]

I wish to clarify--I did not mention "power pitcher". "Command Pitchers" need an "out pitch" at least as much as a "power pitcher". Whether said "out pitch" is a change-up or a breaking ball doesn't matter--in fact if he has both as an "out pitch" this guy will be very successful. Trades were also not mentioned, I consider that issue a red-herring as far as pitcher development is concerned. Drafting 1-10 and the few times the Twins selected that early. There are plenty of "power pitchers selected after #1-10 to refute that point. I would suggest that teams would be more interested in a guys who project as great power hitters than those who project as a great power pitcher.

 

But let me return to the subject of pitcher development. The acquisition of the "go-to out pitch" is paramount. Possession of "the out pitch" will be a big factor in the degree of success that pitcher will enjoy. Consider Blackburn and Slowey (both of whom moved through the minor leagues with considerable success) when they got to the majors they struggled because as though they often got Strikes 1 and 2, strike 3 was elusive. (Note: the "out pitch" is often misstruck and put into play for an out). The threat of strike 3 makes swinging at those well-placed fastballs on the corner much more inviting if the batter has fear the pitcher's "go-to out pitch". This often results in easyouts--as opposed to those "down-the-middle--darn-you-hit-this-one" fastballs. Hence, my desire that young Berrios is promoted to a high-enough level that he must develop this "go-to out pitch" such that he is prepared to succeed at the major league level as opposed to success at all of the minor league levels.