Article: The Bright Side

[twinsnorth49]

Is this going to become a thing?

 

You started it http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sHa_hehe.gif

[twinsnorth49]

Or in games with Kevin Correia starting,

 

Unreasonably unwatchable

 

 

 

OK OK....sorry......http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sFun_DeadHorse.gif

[FrodaddyG]

The tough part for me to grasp is where the real improvements come in the lineup and on defense.

The lineup last year was about half acceptable to good production, and half meh.

 

The better half has had Span and Revere removed from it, and they'll be handing off to question marks. Parmelee SHOULD (I hope) turn a corner at the big league level, but if his three true outcomes skew excessively towards Ks and he doesn't click, it could be rough. Hicks/Benson/Mussolini in CF, who can rightly guess, but you can probably assume at least a slight declione from Span's numbers.

 

Willingham was a cornerstone guy in 2012, and had a career year. Can he repeat it at 34? I'd expect a slight taper off, but not a complete cliff. Doumit's 2012 was a career year, in large part due to actually staying healthy. I think he can maintain, but it will largely hinge on health, and it will take some good fortune to get 130+ games two years in a row out of a guy who has traditionally been injury prone in the past. Defensively, Hicks/Benson should fill in nicely for Span if one of them gets the gig out of ST, but Revere to Parmelee is a significant defensive downgrade no matter how you slice it.

 

On the infield, Mauer should be Mauer. .320, 25 2B, 10 HR, OPS Mid 800s. Morneau could make a jump back to MVP form, but I'd say something more akin to the second half of last year is a more realistic expectation. 800 OPS, 20ish HR, 90 RBI. Solid.

 

Outside of those two, the rest of those ABs (about 2000 over the course of the season) will be going to a whole lot of sub-700 OPS hitters. Plouffe may bounce back and lock down the hot corner, or perhaps he just had a ridiculous 40 game stretch last year, and the .230 hitter we've seen is just what he's destined to be. Up the middle, Dozier is the one hope of a productive hitter, but I also wouldn't put it past Gardy and Co to have a short leash with him if he struggles, and not hesitate to turn the starter's role over to one of the "slick fielders" or Old Man Carroll. (And that could happen in spring training and I wouldn't be shocked.)

 

I'm not going to delve into the pitching, because we've been over all this before, and I really don't feel like making myself nauseous by looking at the 2012 pitching stats. The pitching should be somewhat better, if only because my mind rejects the idea of a staff worse than last year's being possible on this plane of existence. So, anyway, back to the offense.

 

The lineup, with all it's question marks, will need solid to amazing/career years (with both top notch production and being able to stay on the field) from Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit to even stay where it was last year, given the many gaps that likely will exist surrounding them in the lineup. When 3 of the 4 have had significant injury troubles in the past, the fact that losing any one of them for any significant period of time could cripple the lineup keeps my optimism tucked away behind my realist nature. But, weirder things have happened. (I'm just not sure there's enough bottles and lightning for both the lineup and the pitching staff to click enough to be competitive late into the year.)

[70charger]

You started it http://www.forumsextreme.com/images2/sHa_hehe.gif

 

[Physics Guy]

I'm not sure it's even that unlikely. Based on their talent, I've got the Twins pegged right now as a mid-to-high 70-win team. Picking up an extra handful of victories to move above .500 wouldn't require a miracle necessarily, just better luck than the past two years.

 

I agree completely. My guess is 77 wins (+/- 5).

[Kwak]

The sun is shining, the weather warming, with Spring and Baseball to soon follow. There is reason to be "on the bright side." We certainly can anticipate that things will improve--and with the favorite baseball team. There will be new players showcased, they might be future stars--maybe even this season! The worst that can happen is more of the same--but there will be a silver lining even if we get a dark cloud for the 2013 season. The Twins would select early (again) in the subsequent Amateur Draft and quite likely it will produce more of the promising players like those who have been mentioned in other threads of TD. Eventually there will be enough of them to build a consistent winner. Who knows another season (or two) of 90+ loss seasons might cause a change in philosophy that disdains the mediocre--"innings eater" or "plays-the-game-right" guys and prefers those who are hailed as "all-stars" or "Oh boy are we lucky to get him!" player-types.

Let's all look forward to Spring, Baseball, better things--"The Bright Side".

[ThePuck]

By "reasonably" do you mean they weren't actually that good, but it sounds better that way?

 

10th out of 14 AL teams in scoring...

[IdahoPilgrim]

Amidst all the pessimism over how badly the free agent market has been handled this offseason, it's easy to forget that with several lucky breaks, this team could easily finish over .500.

 

Yes, it's a longshot. Yes, it's unlikely to happen without divine intervention. But with Mauer and Morneau on the roster (along with Willingham and Doumit), this team will be able to smack the ball around quite a bit of those guys stay healthy (far from a given) and Parmelee and/or Plouffe turn into consistent offensive threats.

 

As for the pitching staff... well, yeah. That's going to require actual divine intervention to succeed.

 

For what it's worth, I've already started working on that. Can't make any promises, though...

[GCTF]

I think this is how it goes, I think we were reasonably not bad last year and not bad this year.

 

Great

Good

Average

Reasonably average

Not Bad

Reasonably not bad

Reasonably not good

Not good

Bad

Butera

 

One more addition

[twinsnorth49]

One more addition

 

 

Sorry...my bad.

[Riverbrian]

For what it's worth, I've already started working on that. Can't make any promises, though...

 

In that specific area... I need to ask you a couple of questions.

 

Is it possible that Twins Fans can out pray the Indians, Royals, Tigers and White Sox Fans? Would that be good for some W's?

 

Also, is it possible that Nishioka did something real bad, evil, horrible and the Twins team and Twins Fans have been effected by that possible Heavenly Karma?

 

I chose Nishioka for the example because he's the only player I can think of that was on the Roster for both of the bad years of 2011 and 2012 but not on the roster for the playoff year of 2010.

 

If you think about it... This could all be Nishioka's fault karma wise. He wasn't rostered when we were good.

 

The bad times came with him. Maybe the bad times followed him out the door. Something to think about!!!

[70charger]

If you think about it... This could all be Nishioka's fault karma wise. He wasn't rostered when we were good.

 

Cue up Spirit of Vodka Dave....

[LaBombo]

The part of the equation that fans are consistently overlooking is the quality of the team's opponents really hasn't changed much. If anything it stands to go down. The Tigers had a guy win a triple crown and still had the same basic offensive performance as the Twins (who lest we forget had 90 games with 5 or more runs allowed) who were nearly always behind in early innings. I know the Tigers have a much better pitching staff, but their O won't be much better, probably could be scheduled for worse, since a guy is likely to regress from a tripe crown season. Also, the Tigers lost basically 7 games to injury in their front line starters. Expect that number to go up. And if it's Verlander? sub .500 is very likely.

 

Does anyone really expect the White Sox to be that good again? The Royals added 1 pretty good starter, but didn't adress their offense. Cleveland? They've added a bunch of people, but they surrendered even more runs than the Twins.

 

It's very likely the Tigers will have a better season overall, since the division is in pretty bad shape, but there's hope. If the Twins can avoid a 6-16 april and a 9-19 August, things could get interesting. Get in, get lucky and it's 1987 all over again.

 

Who's the more likely candidate for serious regression, the 30 year old Cabrera whose 2012 WAR was lower than his 2011 total, or the 34 year Willi whose 2012 WAR was double his 2011 output?

 

And while the Twins will replace their third-best hitter with either a journeyman or a double A kid, the Tigers replaced the worst outfielder in baseball with one of the best, and will probably get a strong bounceback season from Avila.

 

And a Verlander-less Tigers rotation would still feature 4 guys who would very likely be the ace of yet another dreadful Twins staff. Diamond and Porcello have nearly equal James ERA projections. Diamond is the Twins ersatz ace, while the Tigers shopped Porcello, who is now their 6th best starter.

 

Also, when you say that the Royals added a "pretty good starter", I'm assuming you're referring to Shields, who's posted a top-20 WAR among all MLB starters the past two seasons. But they also added Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, who both pitched well in 2010 and '11 before derailing last year. Their 2013 James ERA projections are 4.04 and 4.20 respectively. How many Twins starters do you expect to beat or even equal that while backed by a Span-less, Revere-less outfield?

 

I'll be pulling for them, but they're probably going to be lousy again this year.

[IdahoPilgrim]

In that specific area... I need to ask you a couple of questions.

 

Is it possible that Twins Fans can out pray the Indians, Royals, Tigers and White Sox Fans? Would that be good for some W's?

 

Also, is it possible that Nishioka did something real bad, evil, horrible and the Twins team and Twins Fans have been effected by that possible Heavenly Karma?

 

I chose Nishioka for the example because he's the only player I can think of that was on the Roster for both of the bad years of 2011 and 2012 but not on the roster for the playoff year of 2010.

 

If you think about it... This could all be Nishioka's fault karma wise. He wasn't rostered when we were good.

 

The bad times came with him. Maybe the bad times followed him out the door. Something to think about!!!

 

The theologian in me says that God is not going to favor any particular team based just on who prays the most; the Twins fans in me says let's try it and see what happens!

 

As far as karma, my religious beliefs are based on grace instead, and on a God who lifts up those who are oppressed and downtrodden. Certainly I don't want to make light of those who truly fall into those categories, but speaking strictly in a baseball sense, I would have to think Twins fans currently fit into that category.

[savvyspy]

I don't care what the record is. I view progress by some of the following occurring:

 

1. Plouffe establishes himself as an everyday player

2. Morneau is traded for someone that contributes at the major league level in 2014 or 2015

3. Mauer over 85 RBIs

4. Worley is a legit 200 inning #3 starter

5. Diamond doesn't regress

6. Parmalee plays everyday at 1B or RF and produces

7. Burton and Perkins are solid at the back of the pen

8. Correia is in Rochester or cut by June 1st

9. Someone is a legitimate middle infielder

10. Either Gibson or Hendricks pitches more than 150 innings (or whatever the max is for Gibson) and is around 10 wins and a sub 4.25 ERA andkm opposing batters aren't hitting .330 against then.

 

i love this team's minor league system. I just don't see a core to build around that I 100% trust. I'd like to see Diamond, Worley, Plouffe, Perkins, and Parmalee be the core but there are question marks around all of those guys.

 

Mauer I view honestly as a complimentary piece. He's a great hitter but they are just as likely to win 90 games with him as without him. Not a clubhouse leader in anyway and his salary hinders a true rebuild. That said, if other pieces are in place he's steady and gets on base.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mauer I view honestly as a complimentary piece. He's a great hitter but they are just as likely to win 90 games with him as without him. Not a clubhouse leader in anyway and his salary hinders a true rebuild. That said, if other pieces are in place he's steady and gets on base.

 

.400+ OBP guys who consistently post a WAR of 5 or higher are not complementary pieces. Mauer is going into his age 30 season with a career WAR of 40. Do you realize exactly how rare that is for a player and how special that makes Mauer?

 

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

[Riverbrian]

The theologian in me says that God is not going to favor any particular team based just on who prays the most; the Twins fans in me says let's try it and see what happens!

 

As far as karma, my religious beliefs are based on grace instead, and on a God who lifts up those who are oppressed and downtrodden. Certainly I don't want to make light of those who truly fall into those categories, but speaking strictly in a baseball sense, I would have to think Twins fans currently fit into that category.

 

I think Theologian in you may be right on the prayer. I remember as a boy kneeling before bedtime praying for Bombo Rivera and Danny Goodwin greatness and a victory over the White Sox tomorrow and the late 70's didn't go so well.

 

I'd say the prayer and my Mom would wait for me to finish. She would tuck me in and tell me the prayer was nice but it would have been a good idea to mention Uncle Joe and his surgery on Friday.

 

On Karma... I think I'm on to something... I think we got a bad dose of Nishioka Karma that spilled on to everyone. Its been nothing but injuries and bad pitching since he came to town.

[old nurse]

.400+ OBP guys who consistently post a WAR of 5 or higher are not complementary pieces. Mauer is going into his age 30 season with a career WAR of 40. Do you realize exactly how rare that is for a player and how special that makes Mauer?

 

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

 

Does not hit home runs, Does not steal bases. Does not swing at 3-0 pitches. Did not date the hottest chick on the planet, Does not publicly say things like "jump on my back" and led the team to a World Series victory. Does try to sell you a Chevrolet, not a Cadillac

[Willihammer]

Did not date the hottest chick on the planet

 

Might be he lacks confidence?

[twinsnorth49]

Does not hit home runs, Does not steal bases. Does not swing at 3-0 pitches. Did not date the hottest chick on the planet, Does not publicly say things like "jump on my back" and led the team to a World Series victory. Does try to sell you a Chevrolet, not a Cadillac

 

 

Where exactly are you going with this and what does any of it have to do with how good a basebal player Joe Mauer is?

[ThePuck]

7th out of 14 in BA, 5th out of 14 in OBP, 12th out of 14 in SLG%, 10th out of 14 in OPS, 10th out of 14 in runs.

 

Above average in OBP. Average in one category in BA. Below average in SLG%, OPS and most importantly runs scored

[Squirrel]

 

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

 

Because the 'average' Twins fan isn't a knowledgeable baseball fan.

[ThePuck]

Mauer I view honestly as a complimentary piece. He's a great hitter but they are just as likely to win 90 games with him as without him. Not a clubhouse leader in anyway and his salary hinders a true rebuild. That said, if other pieces are in place he's steady and gets on base.

 

-'Mauer I view honestly as a complimentary piece.' Um, how do you figure?

-'Not a clubhouse leader in anyway ' Um, how is it in a major league clubhouse? I've always wanted to know. Must be awesome in the Twins clubhouse.

-'His salary hinders a true rebuild.' Um, how? Explain. Twins cutting payroll by 32M over the last two years doesn't help put a contender on the field, but since we rebuild through the draft and trades for prospects, how is his salary hindering anything?

-'He's steady'. Um, oh...steady....that's an interesting description of a player like Mauer.

[LoganJones]

.400+ OBP guys who consistently post a WAR of 5 or higher are not complementary pieces. Mauer is going into his age 30 season with a career WAR of 40. Do you realize exactly how rare that is for a player and how special that makes Mauer?

 

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

 

Simple matter of "the food here is terrible, and the portions so tiny."

[ashbury]

.400+ OBP guys who consistently post a WAR of 5 or higher are not complementary pieces. Mauer is going into his age 30 season with a career WAR of 40. Do you realize exactly how rare that is for a player and how special that makes Mauer?

 

I will never understand Twins fans' inability to appreciate Mauer for what he is and how rare a player he has become.

 

Be fair. It's not that much of a skill to get on base at a .400 clip if you're starting from a batting average of .347/.365 some years.

[ashbury]

7th out of 14 in BA, 5th out of 14 in OBP, 12th out of 14 in SLG%, 10th out of 14 in OPS, 10th out of 14 in runs.

 

Above average in OBP. Average in one category in BA. Below average in SLG%, OPS and most importantly runs scored

 

But enough about Joe Mauer...

[ThePuck]

Be fair. It's not that much of a skill to get on base at a .400 clip if you're starting from a batting average of .347/.365 some years.

 

sarcasm?

[LaBombo]

Be fair. It's not that much of a skill to get on base at a .400 clip if you're starting from a batting average of .347/.365 some years.

 

That's at least a little bit like saying 'It's no big deal to drive in 120 runs if 50 of those are the hitter driving himself in with homers'. And when Mauer had those batting averages you mentioned, he posted OBP's of .429 and .444. Those are ridiculously high for an offense-first position, let alone catcher.

[ThePuck]

That's at least a little bit like saying 'It's no big deal to drive in 120 runs if 50 of those are the hitter driving himself in with homers'. And when Mauer had those batting averages you mentioned, he posted OBP's of .429 and .444. Those are ridiculously high for an offense-first position, let alone catcher.

 

yeah, I mean, look at a guy like Ichiro. two time batting champ, 4 times with an BA of .350 or higher. only had an OBP in the .400s once. Mauer has been over .400 5 times.

[CDog]

For whatever reason, I keep comparing my expectations right now to my expectations last year just before Spring Training. That hasn't been such a rosy feeling, so an article like this is good to remind me that the expectations are better compared to what actually happened (especially in the rotation) instead of what I expected to happen. So I think that leads me to this year being worse than I expected last year's team to be, while better than what they actually were. My internal over/under for wins is 74.5. Some breaks could certainly get that up to a .500 team. (Of course, that means some other kinds of breaks could certainly drop that into the 60s, again.)