ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

[TheLeviathan]

Pot meet kettle

 

Cute....how's that Buerhle evidence coming?

[ThePuck]

Come on, really?

 

Only Morneau and Willingham could command any extension of any significance and the farm would have to completely implode for there to be room for both of them. Regardless, the Twins always have overvalued the current players while undervalued available free agents. They can extend existing Twins all they want but we all know the problem is, and always has been, that they need top of the rotation arms. There is no one like that on this club to extend, they need to look externally for those arms. So increasing payroll on extensions likely doesn't get this club over the hump even if they do manage to blow another $14 million on Blackburn.

 

Would be even think to slot Hermann as DH?

[TheLeviathan]

Wait did someone just posit the idea of extending Blackburn through 2016? Well that "Pavano got a huge contract" statement didnt last long as "dumbest thing ever posted". Good god.

[old nurse]

Come on, really?

 

Only Morneau and Willingham could command any extension of any significance and the farm would have to completely implode for there to be room for both of them. Regardless, the Twins always have overvalued the current players while undervalued available free agents. They can extend existing Twins all they want but we all know the problem is, and always has been, that they need top of the rotation arms. There is no one like that on this club to extend, they need to look externally for those arms. So increasing payroll on extensions likely doesn't get this club over the hump even if they do manage to blow another $14 million on Blackburn.

Point is the claim the Twins won't extend players or sign players is without merit. Top of the rotation arms are a scarce commodity. Pavano was that arm in 2010. They extended him. For 2012 they thought they had 2 in Pavano and Liriano. Take a look at where the proven top of the rotation players go. It is not to teams in the current state the Twins are in.

[old nurse]

Wait did someone just posit the idea of extending Blackburn through 2016? Well that "Pavano got a huge contract" statement didnt last long as "dumbest thing ever posted". Good god.

If Blackburn came back and posted a Slowey like 13-7 record by being in the right place at the right time, what would the Twins do? You would have greater odds of getting into Harvard Law School than that happening, but it is not out of the realm of possible. Need a second Twins example, Carlos Siva 2004.

[old nurse]

Would be even think to slot Hermann as DH?

 

Wouldn't need to, Willingham and Mauer would do it. People have posted how great Hermann is without any naysayers chiming in.

[old nurse]

Cute....how's that Buerhle evidence coming?

 

Cute but not incorrect.

The Buehrle figure came from a reporting of a Ken Rosenthal feed some time ago,

[Mike Sixel]

That quote about Blackburn was about his contract coming off the books, not about extending him. At least that is how I read the original quote. It was about payroll size....

[ThePuck]

Wouldn't need to, Willingham and Mauer would do it. People have posted how great Hermann is without any naysayers chiming in.

 

I'm not being a naysayer...I'm asking whether or not people feel he'd DH since Doumit does a lot of that. I also don't see Willingham being with the team past his contract, at the longest, or Mauer being a primary DH that soon

[ThePuck]

Wait did someone just posit the idea of extending Blackburn through 2016? Well that "Pavano got a huge contract" statement didnt last long as "dumbest thing ever posted". Good god.

 

I mentioned his contract would be coming off the books along with the contracts of the other players mentioned in the post I quoted...

[nicksaviking]

Point is the claim the Twins won't extend players or sign players is without merit. Top of the rotation arms are a scarce commodity. Pavano was that arm in 2010. They extended him. For 2012 they thought they had 2 in Pavano and Liriano. Take a look at where the proven top of the rotation players go. It is not to teams in the current state the Twins are in.

 

Extending players and signing players are two differnt things. As I said, the Twins are notorious for overpaying for their own guys and not paying for quality free agents, but to fill out postitions of need, the Twins need to sign free agents as well. The Twins have few legit vets to extend and many holes to fill, thus they need to spend more on free agency than they do on extensions, but history implies this is unlikely, probably not as unlikely as Blackburn posting a strong 2013, but unlikely none the less.

 

And even at his best, no other club would have consider a guy like Pavano who can't maintain a 6.0 K/9 a top of the rotation arm, even if he did have 17 wins.

[old nurse]

Extending players and signing players are two differnt things. As I said, the Twins are notorious for overpaying for their own guys and not paying for quality free agents, but to fill out postitions of need, the Twins need to sign free agents as well. The Twins have few legit vets to extend and many holes to fill, thus they need to spend more on free agency than they do on extensions, but history implies this is unlikely, probably not as unlikely as Blackburn posting a strong 2013, but unlikely none the less.

 

And even at his best, no other club would have consider a guy like Pavano who can't maintain a 6.0 K/9 a top of the rotation arm, even if he did have 17 wins.

In 2004 Pavano had a similar k/9 ratio. In 2005 the Yankees signed him for top of the rotation money.

 

In terms of the current Twins now having more cash and signing top (not just any) free agents, show me where the bottom teams have ever signed a top free agent. The term quality would have to be better defined. As used most often here, quality means anyone the Twins did not sign.

[Oldgoat_MN]

In 2016 and 2017 the Twins will be in the bottom third of payroll in MLB. If all we are missing is a SS you know Ryan would go sign a Jamie Carroll type of player. I like Carroll, but you don't go to the World Series with a 38 year old SS.

At least no one ever has.

[PseudoSABR]

The only baseless thing is your need to diminish opinions by slapping a "negative" label on them. Truth is Ryan has never made big contract splashes during his tenure. That is just the truth. We have 20 some million reasons to be justifiably wary of celebrating available payroll. Until it is actually spent (and spent wisely - looking at you Corriea) there is plenty to base that on. So definitionally your entire point here is just smug nonsense.

I said "supplement the roster with veterans". I never said make "big contract splashes." You're right, that strawman sure was smug.

[Rosterman]

Let's make a list, someone.

 

Who is on the 40-man roster in 2013 - Hicks, Santana, Herrmann, May, Tonkin, Pinto, Arcia, Hermsen (these guys will be out of options come 2016)

Guys eating up 40-man years: Benson, Hernandez, Dozier, Hendriks. (These guys need to step up soon and show they belong).

 

The 40-man roster can only hold so many players, and they DO have to be added at some point. The evils of having too strong of a minor league system is that if guys play to their capabilities and are missed with people promoted on fast track, you suddenly have too many people knocking at the door but too small of an entryway.

 

Who do the Twins need to add to the 40-man in 2014.

Who in 2015.

Who in 2016.

 

The magic word is NEED.

 

They can compete earlier if they supplement the roster with trades and/or free agent signings.

 

One more question: Besides Mauer, who on the current roster will still be a Twin come 2016?

[PseudoSABR]

Ryan and the front office have time and time again said they will not over pay for free agents. You think they are really going to start "overpaying" for guys? That's their singular excuse when it comes to lowballing free agents. The Twins only had the +100 million payroll because they got the new stadium and had to take care of their own guys, the Mauers, Morneaus, Cuddyers and Nathans. They didn't get that large payroll by signing expensive free agents. They never value free agents nearly as gererously as they do thier own guys. Payroll won't go up until they have to start giving new contracts to the new crop of guys and that won't be for over a half decade.

No, they shouldn't overpay. But i also think their continued frugality (cheapness) is non-tenable. They just aren't going to have a payroll of 60 million in 2015/16. They will acquire vets with larger contracts either in FA or in trade.

 

Look, I don't think they will go out and sign stars, but they will sign another round of Doumits, Willinghams, Saunders during 2015/16; that's not crazy, that's completely reasonable. To argue this point is puffed-up negativity.

[Physics Guy]

That's not the case with me at all...when presented with a strong counterargument based on actual trends or stats or something close to pretty strong evidence, I'll change my opinion...or at least be open to the fact I could be wrong. Truth is, for me, it's about getting to the truth. If I'm wrong and I'm shown to be wrong, I'll happily admit it..especially in a case like this where it'd mean we were much better than I think we'll be.

 

Unfortunately you haven't presented that.

 

How about the 2012 Oakland A's as proof it can be done?

 

Their top 5 hitters in AB:

Reddick - Age 25, first full year, three partials

Cespedes - Age 27, rookie

Weeks - Age 25, second full season

Crisp - 33, veteran

Pennington - 28, 4 years, 3 as a starter

 

Top 5 Pitchers (IP)

Milone - 25, rookie

Parker - 24, rookie

Colon - 39, veteran

McCarthy - 28, 7 year vet

Blackley/Griffin - 29/24, both essentially rookies

 

What do they have that the Twins can't manage by 2016?

[old nurse]

In 2016 and 2017 the Twins will be in the bottom third of payroll in MLB. If all we are missing is a SS you know Ryan would go sign a Jamie Carroll type of player. I like Carroll, but you don't go to the World Series with a 38 year old SS.

At least no one ever has.

Don't tell Phil Rizzuto that.

[ThePuck]

How about the 2012 Oakland A's as proof it can be done?

 

Their top 5 hitters in AB:

Reddick - Age 25, first full year, three partials

Cespedes - Age 27, rookie

Weeks - Age 25, second full season

Crisp - 33, veteran

Pennington - 28, 4 years, 3 as a starter

 

Top 5 Pitchers (IP)

Milone - 25, rookie

Parker - 24, rookie

Colon - 39, veteran

McCarthy - 28, 7 year vet

Blackley/Griffin - 29/24, both essentially rookies

 

What do they have that the Twins can't manage by 2016?

 

If that's the argument then every single team in baseball is a contender every year...sold...without exception. Cool...2016 it is. Heck, why not this year?

[CDog]

I just wonder who will be leading the team in 2016. Mauer may end being worth his contract, but he clearly has no interest in a leadership role in the clubhouse. And it seems to me that this team is a bit quick to equate a little "fire" with too much "attitude" when it comes to young players. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't imagine that any Gardenhire-led team is capable of bringing home the league pennant or WS trophy, even if the players you all reference turn out to be the '27 Yankees. I still love the Twins, but I can share none of the optimism here -- at least until team chemstry or culture changes.

 

So what's it like getting to hang around extensively in a big league clubhouse? An article, or at least a blog post, on your other obvservations would be pretty interesting with that type of access.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Don't tell Phil Rizzuto that.

OK, good catch.

But to be fair, Gil McDougald played 120 games at SS, Billie Hunter played a few and Jerry Lumpe played a few. Rizzuto played in 31 games total and only had 66 plate appearances all year. He was not their primary SS.

[nicksaviking]

How about the 2012 Oakland A's as proof it can be done?

 

Their top 5 hitters in AB:

Reddick - Age 25, first full year, three partials

Cespedes - Age 27, rookie

Weeks - Age 25, second full season

Crisp - 33, veteran

Pennington - 28, 4 years, 3 as a starter

 

Top 5 Pitchers (IP)

Milone - 25, rookie

Parker - 24, rookie

Colon - 39, veteran

McCarthy - 28, 7 year vet

Blackley/Griffin - 29/24, both essentially rookies

 

What do they have that the Twins can't manage by 2016?

 

Weeks was so awful he got demoted to AAA for the stretch run.

 

What do the A's have that the Twins don't? They have a grotesquely overcompensating pitchers park and this whole century they've had a steady stream of top end pitching talent and a GM who knows how to deal them at their peak value to ensure that he can obtain the maximum return, which usaully means getting no less than two more stud young arms to replace the one he just gave up. He nearly never wiffs when he gets pitching talent back in return.

[mnfanforlife]

2016 -

1B - Parmelee (25 HRs)

2B - Rosario (Doubles machine)

SS - Costly Free Agent Gem

3B - Sano (30+ HRs)

LF - Arcia (one of MLB Elite Hitters by 2016)

CF - Hicks (Jack of all trades / Great OBP)

RF - Roberts (.400 OBP) and / or Walker (20+ HRs)

DH - Mauer

C - Hermann or guy from Kepler trade

)

 

I am actually quite intrigued by the idea of Mauer being a full-time DH. He may hit like he did in '09 if he can devote 100% of his energy to offense?

[Physics Guy]

If that's the argument then every single team in baseball is a contender every year...sold...without exception. Cool...2016 it is. Heck, why not this year?

 

And who said it was hard to tell sarcasm in emails and posts? You clearly have it mastered. You asked for proof, so I gave it to you. Way to go off the deep end. I'm not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable. Is there any gray area in your world?

[mnfanforlife]

And who said it was hard to tell sarcasm in emails and posts? You clearly have it mastered. You asked for proof, so I gave it to you. Way to go off the deep end. I'm not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable. Is there any gray area in your world?

 

If Meyer, May, Gibson, and Berrios become as competent as expected...we got a real shot at something.

[Physics Guy]

Weeks was so awful he got demoted to AAA for the stretch run.

 

What do the A's have that the Twins don't? They have a grotesquely overcompensating pitchers park and this whole century they've had a steady stream of top end pitching talent and a GM who knows how to deal them at their peak value to ensure that he can obtain the maximum return, which usaully means getting no less than two more stud young arms to replace the one he just gave up. He nearly never wiffs when he gets pitching talent back in return.

 

So you are saying the Twins can't produce pitching from the minors to replace Parker and Milone? Parker may have been a more highly rated prospect than we have, but Gibson, Meyer and May have on found their names on top 100 lists. I couldn't find evidence of Milone being that highly rated. Colon, McCarthy and Blackley/Griffin can be replaced by what we already have and potentially a middle-tier FA in the next two years (although most would doubt the second part after this offseason).

 

Parker - Meyer

Milone - Gibson

Colon - Worley

McCarthy - Diamond

#5 - Hendriks/May/Wimmers/Berrios

[twinsnorth49]

If that's the argument then every single team in baseball is a contender every year...sold...without exception. Cool...2016 it is. Heck, why not this year?

 

Condescending post of the thread award....congrats! http://www.websmileys.com/sm/fingers/fing24.gif

[ThePuck]

And who said it was hard to tell sarcasm in emails and posts? You clearly have it mastered. You asked for proof, so I gave it to you. Way to go off the deep end. I'm not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable. Is there any gray area in your world?

 

You DID say it's likely they'll contend in 2016...in fact, you said they'd contend for AL Central title in 2015 and 2016. On this very thread. Which is how we got started talking about it. Here's what you wrote:

 

2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point

2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?

 

Now you're saying that your 'not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable'. If that was your view from the start, doubt we're even debating this now...cause almost anything is possible. We're talking about what's likely. I didn't think it was likely, and now you're sayign the same thing. So why are we debating?

 

You gave one example of how it's possible as your proof to say it's reasonable we'd do it in 2016. And my question was legitimate: If you're gonna use 2012 Oakland As as your argument, why not 2013 Twins?

[ThePuck]

Condescending post of the thread award....congrats! http://www.websmileys.com/sm/fingers/fing24.gif

 

Not even close...but thanks...getting a condescending award from you, now that's truly something. I imagine if I was on your side of the argument, I wouldn't hear a peep. The side that defends Ryan and the Pohlads at almost every turn...in this case, by pointing to an unrealistic time frame to shoot for as a reason to do nothing for the now.

[old nurse]

You gave one example of how it's possible as your proof to say it's reasonable we'd do it in 2016. And my question was legitimate: If you're gonna use 2012 Oakland As as your argument, why not 2013 Twins?

Then are you abandoning your negativity as Physics Guy posted what could optimally match the 2012 Oakland pitching staff without using the C word? Rather than Meyer, Hendricks would have to step up as would Hermsen or any of the suspects from last year's staff.