Game Thread 8/23: Minnesota Twins (18-10) @ Kansas City Royals (11-16) 1:05pmCT

[FlauerPauer]

 

Rogers should not be a closer right now. Let Duffey/Clippard/Alcala close.

 

I don't know about Alcala, but Duffey should get a chance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That slider isn't fooling anyone anymore.

Not really. Almost all his advanced metrics say he’s pretty much the same guy as previous years. His contact rate, hard hit, swinging strike, etc are virtually the same as last year.

 

The key difference is that he’s sporting an absurd BABIP of almost .450 in 2020.

 

He’ll be fine.

[ashbury]

At least Clippard gets the win for his broken elbow.

I showed up just in time to miss seeing the game. Is that information they stated on the air, or is that just an assumption from seeing Clippard get hit?

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I showed up just in time to miss seeing the game. Is that information they stated on the air, or is that just an assumption from seeing Clippard get hit?

 

Nothing has been said yet.

[FlauerPauer]

Good win. Keep Cleveland at the heels for now.

[FlauerPauer]

 

I showed up just in time to miss seeing the game. Is that information they stated on the air, or is that just an assumption from seeing Clippard get hit?
 

 

Yeah that's just me being a drunk idiot seeing him get planked with a ball the same way Odo did, except like right off the elbow.

[USAFChief]

Not really. Almost all his advanced metrics say he’s pretty much the same guy as previous years. His contact rate, hard hit, swinging strike, etc are virtually the same as last year.

 

The key difference is that he’s sporting an absurd BABIP of almost .450 in 2020.

 

He’ll be fine.

This is where watching him pitch tells you much more than metrics.

 

He's left multiple flat sliders in the whomp em zone, and he's paid the price. There's a reason he's given up lots of base runners, and XBHs.

 

And it's not bad BABIP luck.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

This is where watching him pitch tells you much more than metrics.

 

He's left multiple flat sliders in the whomp em zone, and he's paid the price. There's a reason he's given up lots of base runners, and XBHs.

 

And it's not bad BABIP luck.

Aye!

 

Beware the whomp em zone, young Rogers! The swings which crack, the bats that thump.

 

Well, we made it out. No Boojum today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is where watching him pitch tells you much more than metrics.

 

He's left multiple flat sliders in the whomp em zone, and he's paid the price. There's a reason he's given up lots of base runners, and XBHs.

 

And it's not bad BABIP luck.

Yet amazingly, his hard hit rate and line drive rates are within data noise of previous seasons.

 

And yes, I’ve watched the games. Where Rogers was likely on the receiving end of beneficial luck last season, the pendulum has swung hard the other direction.

 

His BABIP is a full 150-175 points higher than it should be.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I showed up just in time to miss seeing the game. Is that information they stated on the air, or is that just an assumption from seeing Clippard get hit?

 

They did in fact award Clippard the win. Likely because he had a clean inning late in the game while it was still in doubt.

 

Everyone else kinda was in trouble at some point.

[FlauerPauer]

Jobo needs a refill.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Anyhow, thanks all for the company!

[FlauerPauer]

 

Yet amazingly, his hard hit rate and line drive rates are within data noise of previous seasons.

And yes, I’ve watched the games. Where Rogers was likely on the receiving end of beneficial luck last season, the pendulum has swung hard the other direction.

His BABIP is a full 150-175 points higher than it should be.

 

This is my problem with these new age stats. "Should be" doesn't mean s*it. You can pitch to whatever your ABAIP is, but at some point you have to get outs and Rogers has struggled doing this lately.

 

[LVTwinsfan]

Says absolutely no pitchers that ever faced Ricky Henderson.

well, to make my point , the all time stolen base leader is also the the all time caught stealing leader, how much did all those caught stealings hurt his team..... Rickey used to hit a lot of lead off home runs , that’s a better measure of his abilities in my opinion

[ashbury]

Aye!

 

Beware the whomp em zone, young Rogers! The swings which crack, the bats that thump.

 

Well, we made it out. No Boojum today.

No Boojum Today.

 

Hopefully no boojum tomorrow either.

 

(Changing metaphors juuuuuust a tad.)

 

[FlauerPauer]

Question becomes... does this pitching staff have enough to put the Yankees away? That's all I care about.

 

If the Twins lose to the yanks again, I don't know what I'm going to do...

[Twodogs]

well, to make my point , the all time stolen base leader is also the the all time caught stealing leader, how much did all those caught stealings hurt his team..... Rickey used to hit a lot of lead off home runs , that’s a better measure of his abilities in my opinion

I don't think based on what your measure of his abilities were; that he would have even stood a chance at being a hall of famer. Not even close. For instance. He hit a total of 51 home runs in his first six seasons in the big leagues. However, he was a 4 time All Star. Top 10 in MVP voting 3 times 2nd once. Won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger award in those first 6 years. So no you absolutely have no idea the amount of pressure he put on opposing pitchers, and their defense. He stole 1406 bases, that's over 1000 times he turned a base hit or a walk into a double. I think you should ask some of his teammates what kind of pitches they got to see when he was on base. The pitchers couldn't throw any junk because he would steal on anyone's off speed stuff and how many times did the hitters get ahead in the count because they would throw a pitch out hoping they could catch him sleeping. The pitchers focus went away from the hitter and they were focused on Ricky. They were focused on him on average 40% of the time as his OBP was a career .401. No pretty sure the pitchers were ok with giving up the occasional home run to him as then they could focus on getting the rest of the team out. Not to mention he scored 2295 runs how'd that hurt his team? Many of those runs were a result of him, yep, you got it, stealing a base or two.

[Twodogs]

I don't know about Alcala, but Duffey should get a chance.

I don't know, but I think Duffy might be about ready to struggle also. I've just noticed his Fastball Velocity is down a little. That's not good because before he started throwing harder he used to get lit up a lot. I hope not, I hope his Fastball gets back up to 95. But just what I've been seeing lately.

[LVTwinsfan]

I don't think based on what your measure of his abilities were; that he would have even stood a chance at being a hall of famer. Not even close. For instance. He hit a total of 51 home runs in his first six seasons in the big leagues. However, he was a 4 time All Star. Top 10 in MVP voting 3 times 2nd once. Won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger award in those first 6 years. So no you absolutely have no idea the amount of pressure he put on opposing pitchers, and their defense. He stole 1406 bases, that's over 1000 times he turned a base hit or a walk into a double. I think you should ask some of his teammates what kind of pitches they got to see when he was on base. The pitchers couldn't throw any junk because he would steal on anyone's off speed stuff and how many times did the hitters get ahead in the count because they would throw a pitch out hoping they could catch him sleeping. The pitchers focus went away from the hitter and they were focused on Ricky. They were focused on him on average 40% of the time as his OBP was a career .401. No pretty sure the pitchers were ok with giving up the occasional home run to him as then they could focus on getting the rest of the team out. Not to mention he scored 2295 runs how'd that hurt his team? Many of those runs were a result of him, yep, you got it, stealing a base or two.

Theres a lot of articles about analytics that measure the risk/reward of stealing bases. That’s the reason it’s not done much anymore, most teams figure it’s just not worth it. There’s a lot to consider. How many times do you see a guy steal a base and the batter walks a few pitches later, or hit a home run, in those cases the stolen base did absolutely nothing. It’s the caught stealings that hurt, downright rally killers. I didnt just pull this out of my hat. Yes Rickey Henderson stoke a lot of bases, but if you factor in everything , including the caught stealings you’d see the actual reward was minimal. And I seriously doubt that most of the runs he scored were the result of him stealing a base or two. I’m sure their were plenty of times he stole bases and was stranded on second or third. Can you subtract how many runs were lost because of caught stealings. I’m sure the number would be significant. You definitely can’t just ignore it if you’re measuring risk/reward

[twins1095]

Theres a lot of articles about analytics that measure the risk/reward of stealing bases. That’s the reason it’s not done much anymore, most teams figure it’s just not worth it. There’s a lot to consider. How many times do you see a guy steal a base and the batter walks a few pitches later, or hit a home run, in those cases the stolen base did absolutely nothing. It’s the caught stealings that hurt, downright rally killers. I didnt just pull this out of my hat. Yes Rickey Henderson stoke a lot of bases, but if you factor in everything , including the caught stealings you’d see the actual reward was minimal. And I seriously doubt that most of the runs he scored were the result of him stealing a base or two. I’m sure their were plenty of times he stole bases and was stranded on second or third. Can you subtract how many runs were lost because of caught stealings. I’m sure the number would be significant. You definitely can’t just ignore it if you’re measuring risk/reward

I think there’s something that hasn’t been quantified yet about the value of elite runners splitting pitchers attention. Not sure if anyone has attempted it yet.

[LVTwinsfan]

I think there’s something that hasn’t been quantified yet about the value of elite runners splitting pitchers attention. Not sure if anyone has attempted it yet.

I think that’s exaggerated a bit. In 1982 Rickey stole 130 and was caught 42. Thats a 75% success rate. That’s not that great Sure he scored 119 runs, but how many would have scored anyway if he didn’t steal , and how many were lost by 42 caught stealings. All I’m really saying though is this. He probably added to his run total by stealing 130, but all things considered I don’t think the gain is that much.

[FlauerPauer]

Go Twins!!!!

[twins1095]

I think that’s exaggerated a bit. In 1982 Rickey stole 130 and was caught 42. Thats a 75% success rate. That’s not that great Sure he scored 119 runs, but how many would have scored anyway if he didn’t steal , and how many were lost by 42 caught stealings. All I’m really saying though is this. He probably added to his run total by stealing 130, but all things considered I don’t think the gain is that much.

This has nothing to do with my statement. I also don’t understand how hypothesizing about value that hasn’t been quantified has anything to do with what you just said. It’s clear that pitchers pay more attention to some runners versus others. It’s clear that the reason they pay attention to runners is because of the likelihood of stealing a base. It’s also clear that it affects, some pitchers, their delivery to the hitter. What value does that have?

 

You didn’t come close to the touching upon that despite refuting my post.

[LVTwinsfan]

This has nothing to do with my statement. I also don’t understand how hypothesizing about value that hasn’t been quantified has anything to do with what you just said. It’s clear that pitchers pay more attention to some runners versus others. It’s clear that the reason they pay attention to runners is because of the likelihood of stealing a base. It’s also clear that it affects, some pitchers, their delivery to the hitter. What value does that have?

 

You didn’t come close to the touching upon that despite refuting my post.

not all pitchers get rattled by base runners, but I will concede that it may play a factor. Impossible to measure. In most cases I really don’t think it makes much difference but neither of us can quantify it either way. The 82 A’s as a team, stunk, and overrated selfish Rickey got the SB record, which will never be broken. By looking at their record it’s hard to say if opposing pitchers were really affected by stolen bases, who knows they won 68, maybe they only win 64 if they don’t have Rickey. Pressure affects people in different ways. It’s possible a pitcher could pitch better with a runner on base

[Twodogs]

not all pitchers get rattled by base runners, but I will concede that it may play a factor. Impossible to measure. In most cases I really don’t think it makes much difference but neither of us can quantify it either way. The 82 A’s as a team, stunk, and overrated selfish Rickey got the SB record, which will never be broken. By looking at their record it’s hard to say if opposing pitchers were really affected by stolen bases, who knows they won 68, maybe they only win 64 if they don’t have Rickey. Pressure affects people in different ways. It’s possible a pitcher could pitch better with a runner on base

https://www.nytimes.com/1984/12/16/sports/this-is-ricky-henderson-speed-that-terrorizes.html

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/hof09/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=3816914

 

Maybe people who actually played the game can shed some light on it?

 

Also it is amazing to me, that on a team that is sooo bad, that anyone could score 119 runs? So since the team was so bad, it would make sense that the team wasn't capable of driving in someone 119 time so it would stand to chance that Ricky must have made most of that happen by himself.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

No Boojum Today.

 

Hopefully no boojum tomorrow either.

 

(Changing metaphors juuuuuust a tad.)

 

One can never go wrong quoting Babylon 5.

 

And let me know if the metaphors ever shift to much.

 

I am working on a metaphors field to fix that.

[Platoon]

 

well, to make my point , the all time stolen base leader is also the the all time caught stealing leader, how much did all those caught stealings hurt his team..... Rickey used to hit a lot of lead off home runs , that’s a better measure of his abilities in my opinion

These sound like those despised counting stats I hear about. .  It stands to reason, the more you run, the more you get caught, numerically. But I am one who agrees with the "speed kills" theory. Pitchers Look over too often, shorten their delivery, lose their focus. Catchers set up higher and out of position, and IF cheat toward the bag opening holes. Defenses focusing on the runner, is good news for the batter. More fastballs! 

[twins1095]

not all pitchers get rattled by base runners, but I will concede that it may play a factor. Impossible to measure. In most cases I really don’t think it makes much difference but neither of us can quantify it either way. The 82 A’s as a team, stunk, and overrated selfish Rickey got the SB record, which will never be broken. By looking at their record it’s hard to say if opposing pitchers were really affected by stolen bases, who knows they won 68, maybe they only win 64 if they don’t have Rickey. Pressure affects people in different ways. It’s possible a pitcher could pitch better with a runner on base

Sure, again not the point though. In fact, that would make my point. Not all pitchers get rattled by speed and/or baserunners. However, that’s a skill. So on the flip side, if you were able to quantify it... that’s value you could add to pitchers as well.

 

Now maybe a quick and dirty way to look at it is splits from the stretch and windup for SPing, but I’m also interested in looking at how good of a runner the baserunner is which is much harder.

 

Anyways it was just a thought. If you want to discount it feel free.

[LVTwinsfan]

Sure, again not the point though. In fact, that would make my point. Not all pitchers get rattled by speed and/or baserunners. However, that’s a skill. So on the flip side, if you were able to quantify it... that’s value you could add to pitchers as well.

 

Now maybe a quick and dirty way to look at it is splits from the stretch and windup for SPing, but I’m also interested in looking at how good of a runner the baserunner is which is much harder.

 

Anyways it was just a thought. If you want to discount it feel free.

Well I wouldn’t discount it, but I do think it’s effect is minimal. Anytime there’s a runner on base it is a distraction to the pitcher whether he runs or not. Even Joe Mauer would steal a base if he was ignored. Holding runners is part of the game, even slow runners need some attention. I would tend to discount ideas that fast runners disrupt a pitchers game to the extent that he can’t perform. Those cases are rare, not the norm.

[LVTwinsfan]

https://www.nytimes.com/1984/12/16/sports/this-is-ricky-henderson-speed-that-terrorizes.html

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/hof09/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=3816914

 

Maybe people who actually played the game can shed some light on it?

 

Also it is amazing to me, that on a team that is sooo bad, that anyone could score 119 runs? So since the team was so bad, it would make sense that the team wasn't capable of driving in someone 119 time so it would stand to chance that Ricky must have made most of that happen by himself.

I would say Rickey made some of that happen by himself, but definitely not most