Front Page: Dealing with Wheeler Gets Minnesota an Ace

[Vanimal46]

Actually, I did not say the couldn't do it. I sadd it was uncommon and our expectations should reflect that rarity. You said this is what is required. History is exceptionally clear that not only is this not a requisite action, other models / approaches have been more successful.

 

BTW ... I have stated in a few different posts what I would do. The rub here is really no different than it has always been. That being fans thinking that a team with a $50M-$250M revenue disadvantage with several teams can just go outbid the other teams. The second thing being we can trade a few 45-50 FV prospects for impact SPs. Hey, if they can trade Javier / Rooker / Duran etc for a top SP with 2 or more years of control ... I am all in.

You're putting words in my mouth. I never said it was a requirement to spend a certain amount of money to be a WS contender. They need to target talented starting pitching, preferably 3 really good starters. It will take courage, determination, and perhaps taking on a larger contract than usual to get it done.

 

I've been following along with the discussion and your posts. I still haven't read a plan on what you would do to fill 4 spots in the rotation.

 

All I've seen is an overwhelming amount of things the Twins shouldn't do because of their revenue constraints. Shouldn't go after big free agents because Yu didn't work for 1.5 seasons. Shouldn't trade prospects for established starting pitching because the Samardzija trade didn't work out.

 

I'm asking you to take off your financial consultant hat for a second. Simply lay out some realistic ideas how the Twins can improve the rotation. You've made your point very clear about the finances of this team.

[DocBauer]

My guess is he will get more than that. He got $10m over two years knowing he would only be pitching one of those years. I bet he could get at least 2/$15M coming off a healthy year.

Possibly. And I'm willing to go higher. But am considering injury history and the suspension.

 

And the first year was $2M just to rehab.

[Major League Ready]

 

You also pointed out how bad the Samardzija trade was, even though it is exactly the kind of trade you think they should make, so I'm not really sure what you think. Forgive Van and I if we are confused at this point.

 

How did you conclude I am a proponent of a Samardzija type trade? In general, I don't like trading multiple players with multiple years of control for a guy who had one year of control.

 

You also ignored all of the other facts I posted which is by far the more relevant information. In other words, you completely avoid the hard evidence with refutes the validity of the strategies you support. I welcome you to list all of those $150M+ contracts signed by teams of a similar profile and top prospects traded by them.

[Major League Ready]

 

You're putting words in my mouth. I never said it was a requirement to spend a certain amount of money to be a WS contender. They need to target talented starting pitching, preferably 3 really good starters. It will take courage, determination, and perhaps taking on a larger contract than usual to get it done.

I've been following along with the discussion and your posts. I still haven't read a plan on what you would do to fill 4 spots in the rotation.

All I've seen is an overwhelming amount of things the Twins shouldn't do because of their revenue constraints. Shouldn't go after big free agents because Yu didn't work for 1.5 seasons. Shouldn't trade prospects for established starting pitching because the Samardzija trade didn't work out.

I'm asking you to take off your financial consultant hat for a second. Simply lay out some realistic ideas how the Twins can improve the rotation. You've made your point very clear about the finances of this team.

 

For starters, I am not putting words in your mouth. I used your exact quote. Perhaps you were making more of a conceptual statement but it definitely did not read that way.

 

I have said I would start by trying to get Cole. If that happened I would sign Wheeler / Bumgarner / or Odorizzi in that order. If I could get that done I would figure out the rest between our prospects, come back candidates or maybe even Perez or Pineada if financially feasible. This might not be much better during the regular season but better in the playoffs.

 

If I could not get Cole, I would target two of Wheeler / Bumgarner / or Odorizzi and the 4th spot to Pineada. Anderson if I could not get two of those three. The fifth spot would go to Dubnak / Smeltzer or  Graterol.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How did you conclude I am a proponent of a Samardzija type trade? In general, I don't like trading multiple players with multiple years of control for a guy who had one year of control.

 

You also ignored all of the other facts I posted which is by far the more relevant information. In other words, you completely avoid the hard evidence with refutes the validity of the strategies you support. I welcome you to list all of those $150M+ contracts signed by teams of a similar profile and top prospects traded by them.

 

I thought you had posted that they should trade from their surplus (not elite) prospects for a SP (not one year, that part is different).....so maybe I confused you with someone else. Kind of hard to keep it all straight.....

[Major League Ready]

 

I thought you had posted that they should trade from their surplus (not elite) prospects for a SP (not one year, that part is different).....so maybe I confused you with someone else. Kind of hard to keep it all straight.....

 

No. I said that I don't believe as some here do that "impact" SPs can be acquired for our surplus 45-50 FV prospects. However, I would be all-in if we could get a SP with at least 2 years control for that type of prospect. No worries though ... It's hard to keep straight all the ideas thrown around here.

[laloesch]

I'm gonna keep it real. I would take Wheeler or Bumgarner if they were willing to come here on a shorter term deal like 3 years or something like that. While i would love to have Cole or Strasburg or Scherzer I also believe in the philosophy that Beggers can't always be choosers

Edited October 23, 2019 by laloesch

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm gonna keep it real. I would take Wheeler or Bumgarner if they were willing to come here on a shorter term deal like 3 years or something like that. While i would love to have Cole or Strasburg or Scherzer I also believe in the philosophy that Beggers can't always be choosers

 

what if it takes four years? 

 

I agree there is no chance they sign Cole, and I bet the Nats extend Strasburg.

[laloesch]

 

what if it takes four years? 

 

I agree there is no chance they sign Cole, and I bet the Nats extend Strasburg.

 

I guess it comes down to how much they are willing to pay and what either player will take (assuming they are willing to come to the TCs) and whether or not that 4th year could be a team option year since we are speaking in the hypothetical.

Edited October 23, 2019 by laloesch

[Major League Ready]

 

what if it takes four years? 

 

I agree there is no chance they sign Cole, and I bet the Nats extend Strasburg.

 

Cobb got 4 years. If not for the strong swing toward shorter contracts, you would think those guys are 4 years for sure. I still think Wheeler and Bumgarner get 4 years but I am not taking any bets. The key is can they sign these guys to 4 years and keep a team around them. I believe they can. Cruz (12M) comes off next year. We will feel his loss but that money can be allocated to Arb increases. Gonzales comes off after the 2021 season. Rosario probably has to be traded but we have a couple good replacement candidates close. It would also help to get a pre-arb replacement for Cron either this year or next.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Cobb got 4 years. If not for the strong swing toward shorter contracts, you would think those guys are 4 years for sure. I still think Wheeler and Bumgarner get 4 years but I am not taking any bets. The key is can they sign these guys to 4 years and keep a team around them. I believe they can. Cruz (12M) comes off next year. We will feel his loss but that money can be allocated to Arb increases. Gonzales comes off after the 2021 season. Rosario probably has to be traded but we have a couple good replacement candidates close. It would also help to get a pre-arb replacement for Cron either this year or next.

 

Agreed on all of this, which is why I'm in on not bringing Cron back.....Cruz is so good that he partly makes up for the drop off in starting a rookie in place of Cron, then next year if Cruz is gone (or at least not as good) that rookie is no longer a rookie.....

 

And I can't see how they keep Rosario around, not with as many minor league OFers as they have, not at what arbitration salaries will require as time goes on. Probably next year, but not after that I'd guess.

[Major League Ready]

Here is their payroll assuming a $50M budget for FA pitching and arbitration estimates from MLB Trade Rumors. I am sure this is not the exact 26 man roster that will roll out next spring but this exercise helps in determining the financial feasibility of any moves. They could also keep Rosario and Cron but I would rather they trade Rosario this off-season if possible. They have plenty of options for LF. 

 

Starters
1 Jose Berrios 5,400,000
2 FA / SP #1
3 FA / SP #2
4 FA / SP #3
FA SP TOTAL 50,000,000
5 Lewis Thorpe 555,000
6 Randy Dubnnak 555,000
Devin Smeltzer 555,000
Brusdar Graterol 555,000
Jordan Balazovic
Bailey Ober
Johan Duran
 
Relief Pitchers
6 Taylor Rogers 3,900,000
7 LH / FA 6,000,000
8 Tyler Duffey 1,100,000
9 Trevor May 2,100,000
10 Zack Littell 555,000
11 Sam Dyson
12 Ryne Harper 555,000
13 Randy Dobnak 555,000
13 Cody Stashak
13 Fernando Romero
13 Trevor Hildenberger
13 Sean Poppen
 
Catchers
14 Willians Astudillo 560,000
15 Mitch Garver 575,000
Ryan Jeffers
 
Infielders
16 Ehire Adrianza 1,900,000
17 Luis Arraez 555,000
18 C.J. Cron 7,700,000
19 Marwin Gonzalez 9,000,000
20 Jorge Polanco 3,883,333
21 Miguel Sano 5,900,000
Nick Gordon N/A
 
 
Outfielders
22 Byron Buxton 2,900,000
23 Jake Cave 572,500
24 Max Kepler 6,250,000
25 Eddie Rosario 8,900,000
Alex Kirilloff
Trevor Larnach
Brent Rooker
26 DH - Cruz 12,000,000
 
TOTAL PAYROLL    133,080,833

 

Edited October 23, 2019 by Major League Ready

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

Here is their payroll assuming a $50M budget for FA pitching and arbitration estimates from MLB Trade Rumors. I am sure this is not the exact 26 man roster that will roll out next spring but this exercise helps in determining the financial feasibility of any moves. They could also keep Rosario and Cron but I would rather they trade Rosario this off-season if possible. They have plenty of options for LF. 

 

 

  Starters   1 Jose Berrios 5,400,000 2 FA / SP #1   3 FA / SP #2   4 FA / SP #3     FA SP TOTAL 50,000,000 5 Lewis Thorpe 555,000 6 Randy Dubnnak 555,000   Devin Smeltzer 555,000   Brusdar Graterol 555,000   Jordan Balazovic     Bailey Ober     Johan Duran           Relief Pitchers   6 Taylor Rogers 3,900,000 7 LH / FA 6,000,000 8 Tyler Duffey 1,100,000 9 Trevor May 2,100,000 10 Zack Littell 555,000 11 Sam Dyson   12 Ryne Harper 555,000 13 Randy Dobnak 555,000 13 Cody Stashak   13 Fernando Romero   13 Trevor Hildenberger   13 Sean Poppen           Catchers   14 Willians Astudillo 560,000 15 Mitch Garver 575,000   Ryan Jeffers           Infielders   16 Ehire Adrianza 1,900,000 17 Luis Arraez 555,000 18 C.J. Cron 7,700,000 19 Marwin Gonzalez 9,000,000 20 Jorge Polanco 3,883,333 21 Miguel Sano 5,900,000   Nick Gordon N/A               Outfielders   22 Byron Buxton 2,900,000 23 Jake Cave 572,500 24 Max Kepler 6,250,000 25 Eddie Rosario 8,900,000   Alex Kirilloff     Trevor Larnach     Brent Rooker   26 DH - Cruz 12,000,000         TOTAL PAYROLL    133,080,833

 

 

Dobnak is so good he gets paid twice! * Those number jibe with what I've seen elsewhere, give or take....I'd really like an experienced catcher behind Garver also.

 

* I think, and hopefully you see this as humor.....

Edited October 23, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[Major League Ready]

 

Dobnak is so good he gets paid twice! * Those number jibe with what I've seen elsewhere, give or take....I'd really like an experienced catcher behind Garver also.

 

* I think, and hopefully you see this as humor.....

 

Sorry. I could not make up my mind if he was a Sp or RP and left him in both places. I started to write that I would let Rosario go and get a catcher. Maybe even try to bring back Castro.

 

* Is is possible to upload an image?

[Jham]

By what standard was Darvish really good? The guy implodes at the drop of a hat, his ERA was 3.98 in the NL, he led the league in HRs allowed, he loses the strike zone and is to me a headcase.

 

I did not want him when everyone was talking about him and I certainly can't take any talk about coming here now. He is not the kind of guy I want on the mound in the postseason at Yankee Stadium. They'd need to put him in a straightjacket.

 

A resounding NO on Darvish

By what standard was he good? WHIP<1.10 K/9>11.5 xFIP 3.39. 45% GB rate. Numbers were killed by likely unsustainable hr/fb of 22%.

 

In the post season, he's had 3 good starts and 3 poor. line ups are good come October.

 

We all get you never liked Darvish, but you don't have to disparage a good pitcher who had a sneaky good year, who'd be a prime candidate to improve with better luck on fb and Buxton roaming center in target field. Didn't Odo lead the league in HR 2 years ago?

 

More to the point, our decision makers like him.

Edited October 24, 2019 by Jham

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

By what standard was Darvish really good?

Darvish really turned things around at midseason this year. Second half 2019, he was basically among the elite SP performers in all of MLB.

 

In the context of the post to which you were responding, about who would have been our top starters entering the 2019 postseason, it makes sense to say Darvish would have been there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In the post season, he's had 3 good starts and 3 poor. line ups are good come October.

I'll add that Darvish was basically solid across his first 4 career postseason starts. The Astros figured out he was tipping pitches and picked him apart in his last 2. Presumably he's corrected that since, like countless others have done before him.

 

The Astros did the same to Tyler Glasnow in the playoffs this year, but I'd love to have him going forward too!

[ewen21]

 

By what standard was he good? WHIP<1.10 K/9>11.5 xFIP 3.39. 45% GB rate. Numbers were killed by likely unsustainable hr/fb of 22%.

In the post season, he's had 3 good starts and 3 poor. line ups are good come October.

We all get you never liked Darvish, but you don't have to disparage a good pitcher who had a sneaky good year, who'd be a prime candidate to improve with better luck on fb and Buxton roaming center in target field. Didn't Odo lead the league in HR 2 years ago?

More to the point, our decision makers like him.

Over the last two seasons he has pitched to a 4.16 ERA in 218 innings with an 7-11 record.  Not impressive.

 

He is coming into his 33 year old season and has tons of miles on that arm from when he pitched in Japan.  You can feel however you want about him, but he isn't all that and a bag of chips.  And for the contract that he got he is a huge disappointment.

 

I do not want to see him in a Twins uniform.

[ewen21]

 

I'll add that Darvish was basically solid across his first 4 career postseason starts. The Astros figured out he was tipping pitches and picked him apart in his last 2. Presumably he's corrected that since, like countless others have done before him.

 

The Astros did the same to Tyler Glasnow in the playoffs this year, but I'd love to have him going forward too!

 

28.1 innings pitched in the post season with 27 hits allowed,  home runs and a 5.81 ERA.  Tyler Glasnow is 25 and isn't arbitration eligible for another four years.  I will take him over Darvish any day of the week