Baseball Prospectus - Top 101 Prospects

[dbminn]

Baseball Prospectus has issued their Top 101 Prospects for 2019. The basic list is free for all interested. They issued a slew of supporting articles but they are protected by paywall. I need to resubscribe.

 

Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol make the grade but in a different order than usual. Larnach is on the "10 Just Missed" list.

 

 

 

 

[AZTwin]

Wow that’s the highest I’ve seen Jo Adell

[gunnarthor]

Thanks for posting. BP has really tanked the last few years so this is the list I care about the least but it's nice to see some love for Graterol. 

[nicksaviking]

Surprised Kirilloff didn't go higher. One might say a guy like Adell might stick at CF so he gets a bump, but if position is inflating rankings, I still can't wrap my head around Keston Hiura in the top 10. Everyone knows he's just a 2B right?

[Mr. Brooks]

Surprised Kirilloff didn't go higher. One might say a guy like Adell might stick at CF so he gets a bump, but if position is inflating rankings, I still can't wrap my head around Keston Hiura in the top 10. Everyone knows he's just a 2B right?

2B isn't SS or CF, but it's still an up the middle position.

A plus (maybe even plus-plus) hit tool at an up the middle position makes for a pretty good prospect.

[Mike Sixel]

Surprised Kirilloff didn't go higher. One might say a guy like Adell might stick at CF so he gets a bump, but if position is inflating rankings, I still can't wrap my head around Keston Hiura in the top 10. Everyone knows he's just a 2B right?

It's about risk. Hiura seems extremely likely to be good to great. That low variation has significant value. Would you rather be "sure" of 3-4 WAR, or have Buxton, who might give you zero or six? I'd rather get three WAR every year, personally.

[nicksaviking]

I don't mean to make this about Hiura, I just have never gotten the hype. He looks like a solid every day guy but not much ceiling. You so rarely see 2B rated so high, you'd think he'd have a huge bat and/or elite BB/K skills. His hit tool is good, not great. A 20% K rate is good but it's not elite for the kind of hitter he's supposed to be. Kirilloff has a 14% career K rate for instance.

 

 

[blindeke]

White Sox.

[Thrylos]

My biggest surprise is that there are no Twins players in the second half of the list...

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't mean to make this about Hiura, I just have never gotten the hype. He looks like a solid every day guy but not much ceiling. You so rarely see 2B rated so high, you'd think he'd have a huge bat and/or elite BB/K skills. His hit tool is good, not great. A 20% K rate is good but it's not elite for the kind of hitter he's supposed to be. Kirilloff has a 14% career K rate for instance.

The prospect sites disagree with your opinion of his hit tool (most project it as plus at a minimum), that's likely where gap in hype comes from.

[Seth Stohs]

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Nice tweet. I wanted us to draft Wright but I had a serious fan-crush on Adell.

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

As I've said, they could have drafted any of 5-7 players, and still have done well. It's hard to heap HUGE PRAISE on them, imo, given that. I wanted Wright or Greene or Gore. 

[Mr. Brooks]

As I've said, they could have drafted any of 5-7 players, and still have done well. It's hard to heap HUGE PRAISE on them, imo, given that. I wanted Wright or Greene or Gore.

Maybe. We don't know that until we see how these guys actually perform in the major leagues.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe. We don't know that until we see how these guys actually perform in the major leagues.

 

Clearly, but that's not the tone on this site at all......they are heaped with tons of praise for such an awesome pick. Which, that's fine, feel free. But, it was the first overall pick, they could choose any of several players and be getting the same praise, which I thought was clearly the point of my post.

[dougd]

They say Graterol's "stuff is now better than just about anyone else’s in the minors". Later they say Nate Pearson has the best raw stuff.

[Mr. Brooks]

Clearly, but that's not the tone on this site at all......they are heaped with tons of praise for such an awesome pick. Which, that's fine, feel free. But, it was the first overall pick, they could choose any of several players and be getting the same praise, which I thought was clearly the point of my post.

Well the goal in acquiring players is to win on the field, not to acquire praise. So the words "done well" mean something completely different to me.

I apologize if I misread your post.

[Mr. Brooks]

They say Graterol's "stuff is now better than just about anyone else’s in the minors". Later they say Nate Pearson has the best raw stuff.

Hence the words "just about".

[ashbury]

Clearly, but that's not the tone on this site at all......they are heaped with tons of praise for such an awesome pick. Which, that's fine, feel free. But, it was the first overall pick, they could choose any of several players and be getting the same praise, which I thought was clearly the point of my post.

That's easy to say in hindsight. But a GM with the #1 pick probably lives in fear of unattributed quotes from other teams with high picks saying, "he wasn't even in our top five." That didn't happen, so give them credit. The draft isn't the collaboration that it works out being after the fact for our armchair-analytic benefit.

[Thrylos]

 

They say Graterol's "stuff is now better than just about anyone else’s in the minors". Later they say Nate Pearson has the best raw stuff.

 

What this means is that Graterol's stuff is currently better but Pearson's has higher potential; however he needs to develop further.

[Mike Sixel]

That's easy to say in hindsight. But a GM with the #1 pick probably lives in fear of unattributed quotes from other teams with high picks saying, "he wasn't even in our top five." That didn't happen, so give them credit. The draft isn't the collaboration that it works out being after the fact for our armchair-analytic benefit.

Except not in hindsight, many of us asked for guys in the top fifty.... Either way, we should be happy Lewis is here, I believe.