Article: Rogers’ Curveball Sparks Rise to Upper-Echelon of MLB Relievers

[Jamie Cameron]

The hot stove is officially burning. With the trade of James Paxton to the Yankees on Monday, the offseason began in earnest. Over the coming weeks, Twins fans will be able to move from reckless speculation to analyzing the moves of their bold front office in addressing their pressing off-season needs. What’s evident in the work of the front office, is that they are not risk averse.

 

With needs in the middle infield, bullpen, corner infield, and the rotation, Falvey and Levine seem intent on addressing them via as many angles as possible, including trades and player development. If there’s a personnel area that lends itself to free agency, it’s another strong relief pitching free agent class.Before adding, it’s important to examine what the organization already has. Last week, I took a look at some encouraging signs from Trevor May and his 2018 breakout. The Twins other primary bullpen asset is Taylor Rogers, an organizational success story who took strides to becoming a borderline top 10 reliever in 2018. If he can build upon his progress in 2019, its possible he can be a top 5 reliever. Bold claim? Let’s dig in.

 

Rogers, a 2012 11th round pick, had occupied a typical LHP role in the Twins bullpen in his first two seasons. He was highly effective against LHH and struggled much more against RHH. There’s nothing unusual about that. In 2018 he took extraordinary strides that led to some truly impressive outcomes:

 

2018 (MLB rank among qualified relievers)

BB% 6.25% (25th)

xFIP 2.94 (14th)

WAR 1.9 (11th)

WPA 2.65 (9th)

 

Rogers provided a set of qualities which, when spiraled together, make for a huge value add; left-handed, excellent control, and a high degree of success in high leverage situations. Similarly to previous seasons however, it was a tale of two halves for Rogers, which hinged around him adding a slider midway through the season.

 

Before digging into Rogers’ new pitch mix, it’s worthwhile to examine his historical performance, particularly with regard to his lefty/righty splits, which usually separate elite left-handed relief pitchers from situational left-handed relievers. Here’s a breakdown of Rogers’ splits against LHH and RHH in his three MLB seasons with the Twins.

Download attachment: RogersTable1.png

 

These data are a testament to Rogers development over time. Rogers has gone from being completely ineffective vs. RHH to above average in 2018, posting career best avg., K%, and xFIP against opposite handed hitters. He has always been a highly effective pitcher against LHH. Nevertheless, his K% against LHH spiked dramatically in 2018 (36% K rate overall would put him eighth among MLB relievers, right ahead of Adam Ottavino). That Rogers is building on his strengths in addition to improving his deficiencies is a huge positive for the Twins.

 

Rogers ability to pitch to right handed hitters makes him an extremely valuable commodity. He amassed an fWAR of 1.9 in 2018, good for fifth among left-handed relievers (for anyone who doesn’t appreciate WAR for relievers, read this).

 

Dan Hayes beautifully detailed how Rogers added his slider midway through the 2018 season. Unsurprisingly, this significantly altered Rogers’ pitch mix – detailed below:

 

Download attachment: RogersTable2.png

 

These numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt given that Rogers only began throwing his slider in May, and in earnest approaching and after the All-Star break. Rogers add of a third pitch had a variety of positive impacts on his outputs throughout the season.

 

Most obviously, Rogers slider reduced the load on his fastball, which is a good, if not great pitch. Despite mixing his slider into his repertoire cautiously at first, Rogers, per Hayes, is unyielding in his claim that he only gave up one hit on the pitch all year, a remarkable accomplishment for a new pitch folded in mid-season.

 

The most dramatic impact Rogers made in 2018 was the improvement of his curveball, which went from a below average pitch in 2017, to a pitch worth about eight runs in 2018. Rogers made a variety of mechanical alterations to his curveball in 2018, under the tutelage of then bullpen coach Eddie Guardado. Guardado encouraged Rogers to increase his arm extension upon releasing the pitch, making his mechanics more repeatable. This is born out in Rogers improved command of the pitch in 2018.

 

Download attachment: RogersImage1.png

 

Rogers was consistently able to work his curveball down in the zone with his improved delivery. Rogers was so consistent with his curveball command that he significantly limited opposing hitters’ ability to contact the pitch. O-Contact% measures the frequency with which opposing hitters contact pitches thrown outside the strike zone. In the second half of 2018, Rogers ranked fifth in this metric among all relievers at 40.6% (league average is around 65%).

 

Statcast offers visuals which illustrate Rogers’ command of his breaking pitches. Below are images of all the pitches Rogers threw in two separate outings. On the left, a 2017 outing against the Rangers. On the right, a 2018 outing against Pittsburgh. The blue graphics represent Rogers’ curveball, the yellow, his slider. Notice the tight clustering at the bottom of the zone is his 2018 appearance, compared to more of a spread from his breaking pitches in 2017.

Download attachment: RogersImage2.png

 

Rogers' improved command, combined with more horizontal and vertical movement on the pitch in 2018, resulted in an offering with a soul-crushing level of dominance. In 2018 Rogers gave up a .330 OPS, .015 ISO, and .152 wOBA via his curveball, with a 51.5 K%, a truly dominant pitch.

 

As Rogers confidence in his new pitch mix improved, so did his results. After July 28th, he didn’t give up another earned run all season, an incredible run spanning 28 appearances, during which Rogers gave up a .119 avg., .147 wOBA, and a K/BB of 9.7.

 

Extrapolating Rogers second half numbers to a full season is a mouthwatering, if foolish prospect. After the 2018 All-Star break, Rogers was the second most valuable reliever in baseball and raised his K/9 to 11.00. Parsing those numbers out over a full season and Rogers is the fifth most valuable reliever in MLB.

 

While this may be an unrealistic expectation for 2019, Rogers is an incredible success story in player development and a high leverage relief pitching option the Twins should build their bullpen around for the foreseeable future.

 

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[mikelink45]

I guess Molitor did a good job with him!  I agree he is an excellent success story.  I had hoped that Hildenberger would be right with him.  But Molitor must not have done so well with him. The BP requires 4 very good and 4 okay arms to function.

[mlhouse]

With the added 3rd pitch and command, why not consider moving him to the starting rotation?  HE was a starter until he reached the majors, 87 starts in 99 minor appearances.

[DocBauer]

While a great changeup can be outstanding in it's effectiveness, it's probably less important for a RP working only an inning, maybe two.

 

I'm curious about his turn to a slider. I honestly can't recall if he had one before and just dusted it off, or did he really learn the pitch?

[Aerodeliria]

There has been a lot of scuttlebutt about Hidenberger's problems. There were indicators that something wasn't quite the same after he took a severe beat down against the Cubs. He seemed to right the ship for a bit and then it all went south. In his final 30 games of the Twins' season, he posted Ricky Nolasco like numbers: 

 

Last 30 games 

 

Record: 2-4

ERA: 9.00 

Innings: 27.0

HIts: 37

BB: 12

SO: 27

WHIP: 1.81

 

First 43 games

 

Record 2-2

ERA: 2.71

Innings: 46

Hits: 38

BB: 14

SO: 43

WHIP: 1.13

 

Pretty dramatic...maybe he was just worn out (73 games)...any ideas?

 

 

 

 

 

[wabene]

There was a story here with pictures showing how his circle change grip was visible during his pitching motion tipping off the pitch. That may be part of it. As a gimmicky pitcher the mystery may have faded. He is a guy who relies heavily on deception. It will be interesting to see if he can bounce back next year.

[SomeGuy]

 

While a great changeup can be outstanding in it's effectiveness, it's probably less important for a RP working only an inning, maybe two. I'm curious about his turn to a slider. I honestly can't recall if he had one before and just dusted it off, or did he really learn the pitch?

BrooksBaseball.net says he used a slider 6.53% of the time in 2016.  0% in 2017 and 13.19% in 2018.

 

The whiff % nearly doubled between '16 and '18 on his slider.  The linked article from Dan Hayes says he developed it with Eddie Guardado before using it this season.  Must be a little different from his previous slider.

[SomeGuy]

 

 

There has been a lot of scuttlebutt about Hidenberger's problems. There were indicators that something wasn't quite the same after he took a severe beat down against the Cubs. He seemed to right the ship for a bit and then it all went south. In his final 30 games of the Twins' season, he posted Ricky Nolasco like numbers: 

 

Last 30 games 

 

Record: 2-4

ERA: 9.00 

Innings: 27.0

HIts: 37

BB: 12

SO: 27

WHIP: 1.81

 

First 43 games

 

Record 2-2

ERA: 2.71

Innings: 46

Hits: 38

BB: 14

SO: 43

WHIP: 1.13

 

Pretty dramatic...maybe he was just worn out (73 games)...any ideas?

His fastball velocity was increasing month by month until peaking in June then lost 2 MPH by the end of the year.  Wearing down is a possibility, that might be a normal year long model for a pitchers velocity but losing 2 MPH seems significant for a low 90's reliever.  However, he was successful early in the year when he was building strength and essentially throwing the same speed as at the end of the year.

 

His walk rate increasing dramatically probably affected him.

 

His homerun to flyball ratio also ballooned from 12.8% to 30.4% from 1st half to 2nd half.

[jmlease1]

It's going to be very interesting to see if Rogers improvement against RHB is real or one of those relief pitcher variable years. He was massively better against RHBs in 2018 vs 2017...but not that different from 2016. His ability to keep the ball in the park last year was the real key, i think, but it's hard to know how much of that was luck or skill with a relatively small data set.

 

He's a useful pitcher even if he regresses some against RHBs again, but it's encouraging that there's an approach change that has coincided with his increased success. That does help me believe this may be more repeatable and an indicator of future success.

 

no question, Twins will be looking to him as an important late-inning option.