Election 2018

[Mike Sixel]

Artificial lines on maps lead to people making fun of people across lines....MN makes fun of IA, WI of IL, etc.......I don't think this is a WC issue.......a conspiracy person might think those lines are there to keep us in tribes and distracted....

[TheLeviathan]

 

Artificial lines on maps lead to people making fun of people across lines....MN makes fun of IA, WI of IL, etc.......I don't think this is a WC issue.......a conspiracy person might think those lines are there to keep us in tribes and distracted....

 

Figures an Oregonian would say something dumb like that.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

Figures an Oregonian would say something dumb like that.....

 

That's MN schools for you, liberal brain washing at it's finest......

[TheLeviathan]

 

And people in LA refer to Fontana as "Fontucky". It's pretty common out there to make fun of the south and the rural west at the same time.

 

Personally, I always preferred "The Valley of the Dirt People" when referring to the Inland Empire.

 

Personally, I have no problem admitting stereotypes are funny.  They come into existence and persist for a reason.

 

And when it comes to the south and the rural west....I unapologetically join in the fun.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, if the deep south doesn't want to be made fun of, they should stop voting to display the ten commandments in public schools, and stop having segregated proms.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Democrats picked up Maine's 2nd district in the run-off (!) vote tally, bringing their total seat gain to 35 with several more districts to be decided.

 

It's the biggest House gain by Democrats since Watergate.

[Squirrel]

 

Democrats picked up Maine's 2nd district in the run-off (!) vote tally, bringing their total seat gain to 35 with several more districts to be decided.

 

It's the biggest House gain by Democrats since Watergate.

It wasn't a run-off, technically, although they call it a run-off ... it was ranked choice voting that took the Dem over the top. And after the court rejected the lawsuit filed by the GOP candidate to stop the counting of the second choice votes.

 

Oh, and I'd call that a blue wave victory.

[Squirrel]

Further ... Maine is the first state to use ranked choice voting.

[ashbury]

Further ... Maine is the first state to use ranked choice voting.

Ranked voting can give you your result on Election Night - computers are good at this sort of thing - I guess the lawsuit is what delayed the outcome and made it look like a runoff?

[Squirrel]

 

Ranked voting can give you your result on Election Night - computers are good at this sort of thing - I guess the lawsuit is what delayed the outcome and made it look like a runoff?

Yeah ... I think I said that above ... well, was editing when you posted.

[stringer bell]

Democrats will probably win the four undecided races in California, with a 50-50 race in Utah and a long-shot in Georgia. I believe it will end up 233-202 for the Donkeys over the Elephants.

[PseudoSABR]

Ranked voting would make voting for third party candidates a lot more viable, given you wouldn't have to worry you were throwing your vote away.

[Squirrel]

 

Ranked voting would make voting for third party candidates a lot more viable, given you wouldn't have to worry you were throwing your vote away.

Yep. It's as good of an alternative as you can get without totally changing the two-party system, which I don't see happening any time soon. But, that said ... not sure we'll see this implemented any time soon, either, on a national level. I think a lot of states would have to adopt this going forward before it would be considered on a national level.

[TheLeviathan]

 

It wasn't a run-off, technically, although they call it a run-off ... it was ranked choice voting that took the Dem over the top. And after the court rejected the lawsuit filed by the GOP candidate to stop the counting of the second choice votes.

 

Oh, and I'd call that a blue wave victory.

 

Especially with the tides they turned at state and local levels too.  People are making too much of the Senate - which was heavily stacked against them from the outset.  

 

Hyping this as anything but a major victory is stealing defeat from the jaws of victory.

[gunnarthor]

Politico reported another Orange County seat switched and it sounds like this woman is pretty liberal -

 

"Porter, a law professor and consumer advocate, ran on a platform that included: Medicare for All, passing a ban on assault weapons, overturning President Donald Trump and the GOP's tax plan along and curtailing the amount of outside money in congressional races. She was also once a student of Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren."

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/15/california-elections-results-mimi-walters-katie-porter-995504

[biggentleben]

Utah sounds like it will be won by a Republican, but I want every vote counted, so if that means one race lost, then so be it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

People are making too much of the Senate

People were unreasonable about the Senate. Democrats gained in AZ and NV. One is a swing state, the other firmly conservative.

 

Democrats held the line in the swing states of MI, WI, PA, and OH. They held the line in the conservative states of WV and NC.

 

Democrats lost in the extremely conservative states of IN, MO, and ND.

 

But if you look closely, there's some important information in there... namely AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, and OH.

 

Deliver those states in 2020 and the Democrats waltz into a massive victory.

[Mike Sixel]

It's not like the Senate, you know, approves (or doesn't) justices and judges.......so, ya, not having it is bad. And, supposedly, the map looks bad in 2 years, again. 

[PseudoSABR]

Looks like the GOP will take the FL Sen seat.  Too bad.   Bad ballot design is part of the reason why.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's not like the Senate, you know, approves (or doesn't) justices and judges.......so, ya, not having it is bad. And, supposedly, the map looks bad in 2 years, again. 

No, it doesn't look bad in two years.

 

The Democrats have 12 seats up in 2020. Of those, only two are really questionable without knowing the candidates involved: Alabama and Virginia. The rest are places like MN, NM, IL, and a smattering of New England states.

 

The Republicans have 21 seats up in 2020. Most are comfortably red middle of the country states but there are interesting seats in play: ME, AZ, CO, WV.

 

And you never know when a state like Georgia might flip and there are a few states like that on the fringes, depending on the candidates involved. If the suburbs continue their anti-Trump stance, a lot of those fringes could be close and/or flip blue.

[stringer bell]

I’d say the Democrats are very likely to lose Alabama, but add to your list Iowa and North Carolina. Obama won NC in ‘08 and came close in ‘12. He carried IA twice and they currently have 3 of 4 Reps as Democrats (in January). Tilllis has so-so popularity and Ernst is a lightweight in Iowa.

 

Incidentally, Virginia is more blue than purple these days. I doubt that an incumbent Democrat would have trouble getting re-elected there.

[Squirrel]

 

People were unreasonable about the Senate. Democrats gained in AZ and NV. One is a swing state, the other firmly conservative.

 

Democrats held the line in the swing states of MI, WI, PA, and OH. They held the line in the conservative states of WV and NC.

 

Democrats lost in the extremely conservative states of IN, MO, and ND.

 

But if you look closely, there's some important information in there... namely AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, and OH.

 

Deliver those states in 2020 and the Democrats waltz into a massive victory.

And not sure what to make of Florida.

[stringer bell]

One thing about Florida is that if convicted felons who served their terms had the right to vote, both Gillum and Nelson would have won.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And not sure what to make of Florida.

It's Florida. The testicular hot mess of America.

[Squirrel]

 

It's Florida. The testicular hot mess of America.

Not to be ... er, inappropriate ... but I saw a meme, or post, or whatever the other day ... given the shape of Florida, and the voting mess there, emblazoned across the picture of the state was an erectile dysfunction ad.

[Squirrel]

 

 

One thing about Florida is that if convicted felons who served their terms had the right to vote, both Gillum and Nelson would have won.

Well, that referendum passed on this year's ballot ... so ... in two years they will get the voting rights restored. In theory. It's florida so who knows if that will really happen. I get not being able to vote while serving your time, but once that time is passed, you should be able to vote again. This 'you must be punished for the rest of your lives' mentality is appalling to me. Yeah, okay, maybe I'm not so forgiving for certain crimes (anything involving children), but I don't think punishment should come in that form when your sentence has been served.

[TheLeviathan]

 

No, it doesn't look bad in two years.

 

The Democrats have 12 seats up in 2020. Of those, only two are really questionable without knowing the candidates involved: Alabama and Virginia. The rest are places like MN, NM, IL, and a smattering of New England states.

 

The Republicans have 21 seats up in 2020. Most are comfortably red middle of the country states but there are interesting seats in play: ME, AZ, CO, WV.

 

And you never know when a state like Georgia might flip and there are a few states like that on the fringes, depending on the candidates involved. If the suburbs continue their anti-Trump stance, a lot of those fringes could be close and/or flip blue.

 

Also, in politics, two years is an eternity.

 

And it should also be pointed out how well some Democrats did in state races.  Kansas now has a Democrat as governor.  Maybe taking the Senate back will be hard, but I think a number of red states are becoming more purple.

 

It's funny, you were so worried about the rural/urban split Mike, but I actually think that helps in the long run.  I have no doubt that the reason Arizona and Nevada went Dem is the ever increasing suburban populations of Vegas and Phoenix.  I also expect that to eventually flip Texas into a wide-open purple.

[Squirrel]

 

Also, in politics, two years is an eternity.

 

And it should also be pointed out how well some Democrats did in state races.  Kansas now has a Democrat as governor.  Maybe taking the Senate back will be hard, but I think a number of red states are becoming more purple.

 

It's funny, you were so worried about the rural/urban split Mike, but I actually think that helps in the long run.  I have no doubt that the reason Arizona and Nevada went Dem is the ever increasing suburban populations of Vegas and Phoenix.  I also expect that to eventually flip Texas into a wide-open purple.

I think (and correct me if I'm wrong) Mike's concerns about rural vs urban voters as how it pertains to and is quantified by the EC. And I'm not really in disagreement with him there, that I think it's way off balance in how the EC is constructed. But I'll let Mike correct me ... and perhaps that ongoing discussion is for the general politics thread.

 

That said, I think rural America is still pretty solidly red over all. The biggest gain (I think I read this somewhere) is the flip in the suburbs this election.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think (and correct me if I'm wrong) Mike's concerns about rural vs urban voters as how it pertains to and is quantified by the EC. And I'm not really in disagreement with him there, that I think it's way off balance in how the EC is constructed. But I'll let Mike correct me ... and perhaps that ongoing discussion is for the general politics thread.

 

That said, I think rural America is still pretty solidly red over all. The biggest gain (I think I read this somewhere) is turning the suburbs blue.

 

The EC/Senate concerns sorta overlap  The idea was that sparse populations were being over-represented.  That will likely always be the case, but it doesn't have to be a big deal.

 

Rural can still be turned more purple IMO with some honest effort.  But my point was that many places that were formerly thought to be red are turning purple in part because of the high population centers going so firmly blue.  (Which includes the suburbs)  It's a good thing - both for the Senate and the EC - if populations urbanize.  More than likely that gives the Democrats a thorough advantage in the majority of states.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, it doesn't look bad in two years.

 

The Democrats have 12 seats up in 2020. Of those, only two are really questionable without knowing the candidates involved: Alabama and Virginia. The rest are places like MN, NM, IL, and a smattering of New England states.

 

The Republicans have 21 seats up in 2020. Most are comfortably red middle of the country states but there are interesting seats in play: ME, AZ, CO, WV.

 

And you never know when a state like Georgia might flip and there are a few states like that on the fringes, depending on the candidates involved. If the suburbs continue their anti-Trump stance, a lot of those fringes could be close and/or flip blue.

 

Hmmm....that's different than what I read before, but you make a compelling argument.