Pondering the Personel for the 2019 Pen

[DocBauer]

I created a post regarding the 2019 rotation a few days back and we got some great responses and thoughts! Honestly, I was hoping for a little more run between all of us here at TD. Too much late season, disappointment hangover syndrome? Perhaps. But it's time to look at the 2109 bullpen!

 

But this should be easy, right? I mean, all you have to do is trade for one proven arm, (think Reardon back in the day), or convert a talented SP arm that doesn't quite get it done, (Aguillera), or just trade for a set up guy ready for his opportunity, (Nathan). There's your closer! After that, it's even easier. You get a decent but lesser guy to set up, some LOOGY for a hitter or two, and then you fill in with failed or mediocre SP or a veteran or two clinging to another year or two in the sun and your pen is complete.

 

Easy right? Yeah...easy. If it was that easy, both Cleveland, and before them Detroit, wouldn't have blown so many great opportunities in the past few seasons with good teams and outstanding SP. Give former GM Terry Ryan credit for one thing at least, for the most part, he had a great eye for finding guys to build a solid to good bullpen.

 

Admit it, considering some of the games lost the past couple of months, you never thought you'd miss Rodney did you?

 

To say the Twins bullpen has been disappointing to poor at times this season would be an understatement. But has it been, and is it, as much of a black hole as it appears? Let's be honest, there have been stretches where the pen has performed rather well. And we've seen quality performances. But the down times, the inconsistency, is something that can't continue. I think it's safe to expect the FO to add at least one quality arm in the off season, if not two. And I think We're all smart and experienced enough to understand the life of a reliever is a volitle one. You can pitch great for 4 games, have a bad performance or two, and suddenly you "stink" and your numbers rise. A reliever can have great stats, but allow tons or inherited runs, while a guy with lesser stats may actually be mkre effective. Such is their volitle career.

 

But for now, let's examine at what we have on hand: (keep in mind, I'm not going stat heavy here, just looking at performance and basic numbers, as well as the eye test for what we've seen).

 

ROGERS: How much do we have to say here? Solid when be came up, showed potential. Seemed to be over used in 2017, and has emerged in 2018 as maybe the best overall reliever on the team. (Still borderline over used).

 

HILDENBERGER: This is an example of a guy getting a REAL opportunity and running with it. (Something I still argue with the FO in regard to a few other prospects who haven't received a similar opportunity in 2018). He showed in 2017 what he could do. Despite a poor and scary ST, he has had another very good season despite some second half issues. Over use? Molitor has stated Hildenberger isn't afraid to take the ball in the 9th. That's great, but doesn't mean he's the next Tekulve or Quissenberry. (SP?) But just because he may not be the next great Twins closer shouldn't taint what he has shown and accomplished thus far. He shows the ability to be a quality 6-8 UP reliever.

 

MAY: He is a wild card for me, but one I find very intriguing. In the last, used as a reliever, debatably so, he showed real stuff and ability before his back gave out the next season. Coming off TJ, he actually asked to move to the pen in Rochester as he felt be would be more effective. Since rejoining the Twins, he's really flashed at times, around a couple bad outings. I recall a game where he relieved...Littell I want to say but can't be certain...where he was wild and walked in a run and I believe allowed a second to come across. But no outs, bases loaded, he didn't allow the inning to be a blow up sort. He then came out and mowed down the opposition the next inning. May, with the Twins in 2018: 24.1IP/ 3.33ERA/ .228BA/ 1.07WHIP/ 5BB/ 34SO. Those are good numbers folks, and something to build on.

 

REED: Under contact and the biggest wild card for 2019. A model of consistency the past few years, he had career 9K per numbers and almost a 4-1 SO/BB ratio coming in to 2018. Still only 29, his year fell apart after the first couple of months when he looked like his normal self and and not only a big pick up, but even a bargain. Has he been hurt more than we are told? Has his arm suddenly quit at still a young age, especially for a reliever? Was it just his year to have a bad season? I don't know. None of us does at this point. But if I could tell you he would be his normal self in 2019, with the other 3 guys mentioned above, you'd feel a whole better about the bullpen wouldn't you?

 

Now to the rest:

 

MEJIA: I'm including here for a reason. He's a SP candidate, no doubt. But I believe he's out of options. He's on the club no matter what. Too much stuff and potential. If he doesn't earn a starting job, he's in the pen. (I like him there).

 

MAGILL: To even have him in the conversation is crazy to me. Never even heard of him until this year. But as a middle/long/mop up man he's performed far better than expected. He brings mid 90's heat with a slider that can be wicked at times. And he's right about 9K per. But his HR, BA against and BB are a little high. Without more consistency, he is what he is. He fills his role. I'm still torn whether he is a 40 man choice or not.

 

DUFFEY: A great curveball, two of them in fact, with decent velocity on his pair of FB. An occasional "show me" change. He has shown real flashes, but both good and bad. I think he's gone, but scared someone is going to help him find a consistent delivery and release point and We're going to regret letting him walk.

 

BUSENTIZ: Big stuff. No consistency. He's gone or in AAA.

 

DRAKE: This guy has bounced around in his career more than a super ball out of a vending machine! I include him here, grudgingly, because the Twins, and other teams, thought enough of his over hand delivery and FB, with good SO numbers, to audition him. He's almost 10K per in his limited career. A 2.5/1 SO/BB is not bad. HR and BA not so great.

 

MOYA, VASQUEZ, JAKE REED, CURTISS, NICK ANDERSON, AND EVERYONE ELSE: Moya and Vasquez are similar to me despite different deliveries. Big numbers in milb, but still waiting to "prove it". Moya has the funky and deceptive delivery. It appears the Twins feel there is something there. Vasquez was promoted aggressively, so they like his slider and potential. I don't think he's ready yet. Reed has had some injuries and BB issues at times, but seems to have good stuff. Not pitching in September is a joke. Anderson is older, but similar to Reed, coming off a big season and should have received a look. Curtiss has the best stuff of all of these options. Can he just not repeat his delivery? Does he just not trust his stuff? He gives you WOW moments at times when you watch him. Lastly, of course, any young starter from Gonsalves to Slegers could end up in the pen, replacing the affor mentioned Magill, for example.

 

There you have it. I don't think I missed anyone. The Twins will almost certainly sign or trade for at least one quality arm for the pen. (And I'm not even bringing up Pineda or Odorizzi for the pen if the rotation breaks right). Yes...i know this a long post. But the pen, and the options, are long. Examing all of this, how do you feel? Is there reason to be hopeful with the top names and some depth? Or do you feel there is a mess?

[Danchat]

Right now I see Rogers locked into a high leverage role, May and A. Reed locked somewhere in the bullpen, and a bunch of question marks. Maybe it'd be best if Hildy starts in AAA if he has another terrible Spring training. Drake and Magill are on the boundary for me... Drake has certainly performed and deserves the 40 man spot for what he's done here, and Magill is good depth. Magill's a lot better than a lot of the other AAAA fodder we've seen and he can be a long reliever too. I see 2-3 open spots with a closer and one other high leverage option needed. They could add another lefty... (basically they need exactly what Rodney, Reed, and Duke were on paper again. Except a better closer, please.)

 

I don't know if Moya has what it takes. Busenitz looks like burnt toast. If healthy, Mejia should be the #5 starter. Duffey can pack his bags and clean out his locker. Curtiss needs to be given more time and care. Jake Reed will probably be with another org. next year because it's clear the Twins don't want to play him in the big leagues.

[beckmt]

Hard to say, since I agree with much of the above.  I see Rogers, May, Addison Reed and Hildenburger as the only 4 givens from this years pen to be back next year.  

One of Magill or Drake will probably wind up as the long reliever and Curtiss, Anderson and Jay will be given looks in spring training (if Jay is still in the orgainization).  Duffey, Reed, Moya, Busentiz and a couple of the minor league starters who are out of options will likely move on.

That leaves 2 - 3 open slots of which the Twins need to fill at least 2 with higher quality relievers from the outside.   Twins starting staff has gotten to about league average this year, but would you like to be locked in a bullpen dual with (Yankees, Seattle, Milwaukee, Oakland, Houston, Atlanta) or any of the other top bullpen clubs in the major leagues.  Gap needs to be closed and cannot be done internally for next year.  

It is fine if you are writing off next year, I still do not wish to do that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I personally would have May start, but it seems like he's embracing the pen role, which if that's the case, it solves a problem here. You basically have 4 decent relievers in May, Hildy, Reed, and Rodgers. That's not enough for a full season, and one of those guys is a situational guy. I think Moya and Busenitz should probably be in the pen to start in 2019 (do these guys have options?), but I also think one good FA signing would be smart here. Hildy, May, and Reed can be 7th/8th type guys, though with no real closer, you have to factor that in two. If Mejia isn't starting, he's in the pen as well. I think he'd be a decent RP option, and he's got plenty of ML experience. My bigger concern is Molitor relying too much on his guys and we have much the same issues we had prior. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Hildenberger has had a very good year?

By what possible measure?

4.54 FIP, ERA north of 5. Negative WAR.

Doesn't mean he can't be good next year, he was good in 2017. But this year? Nothing short of awful.

[Vanimal46]

If the goal is to win in 2019 this group won't cut it. They'll need at least 3 FA signings.

 

If the goal is mediocrity again, this group and strategy of cycling through waiver wire unknowns is fine.

 

We'll see how Falvey and Levine approach this in the winter.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think the bullpen needs a couple impact signings

 

My goal for 19 bullpen

 

Kelvin Herrera

Jeuris Familia

Trevor May

Addison Reed

Taylor Rogers

Gabriel Moya

Trevor Hildenberger

Matt Magill

[Rosterman]

I voted for May as a potential closer and wish the Twins had used him so for the final month instead of overusing Hildenberger. Reed, Rogers are also in the mix. Moya will be better. Vasquez might need more seasoning.

 

Depends on the "opener" but do you have any of the 10 starters in the pen for 4-inning stints: Littell, Mejia, DeJong, Slegers? That's the new question. And do you think any of these starters can transform into bullpen arms in the majors without putting in pen time in the minors.

 

Jake Reed will be added to the mix. So will Nick Anderson.

 

You will still have Magill and Drake (but not Belisle) on the off-season roster. You hope you might've found the next Guerrier or something. But look for the Twins to sign lots of minor league invite arms in the off-season and bring them to camp.

 

Unless they go out and spend $100 million on free agents, it will be a rebuilding year, and with the right field management, maybe they can compete with the arms they have from within.

 

[DocBauer]

I think the bullpen needs a couple impact signings

 

My goal for 19 bullpen

 

Kelvin Herrera

Jeuris Familia

Trevor May

Addison Reed

Taylor Rogers

Gabriel Moya

Trevor Hildenberger

Matt Magill

I would love this! Can we really see a pair of signings that big though?

 

I would SO like to see a 7 man pen and not an 8 man. Obviously depends on the rotation though.

 

Just a hunch...Mejia is in the pen over Moya because we will acquire a starter through FA or trade, plus Romero is an obvious option.

 

I'd be happy with one big addition. Sure would like to know what to expect from Reed next season. He could be a real key

[DocBauer]

I voted for May as a potential closer and wish the Twins had used him so for the final month instead of overusing Hildenberger. Reed, Rogers are also in the mix. Moya will be better. Vasquez might need more seasoning.

 

Depends on the "opener" but do you have any of the 10 starters in the pen for 4-inning stints: Littell, Mejia, DeJong, Slegers? That's the new question. And do you think any of these starters can transform into bullpen arms in the majors without putting in pen time in the minors.

 

Jake Reed will be added to the mix. So will Nick Anderson.

 

You will still have Magill and Drake (but not Belisle) on the off-season roster. You hope you might've found the next Guerrier or something. But look for the Twins to sign lots of minor league invite arms in the off-season and bring them to camp.

 

Unless they go out and spend $100 million on free agents, it will be a rebuilding year, and with the right field management, maybe they can compete with the arms they have from within.

I think Magill is probably protected based on what he did this season. But it does make you wonder of one of the SP options couldn't maybe handle the role. But I have to say, if Magill can just be a tiny more consistent, I like his FB and slider both.

 

Hate to repeat myself, but if there just isn't room for Mejia in the rotation...and he will get his shot.. I think he's your first LH out of the pen with Roger's being saved for set up work.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I would love this! Can we really see a pair of signings that big though?

 

I would SO like to see a 7 man pen and not an 8 man. Obviously depends on the rotation though.

 

Just a hunch...Mejia is in the pen over Moya because we will acquire a starter through FA or trade, plus Romero is an obvious option.

 

I'd be happy with one big addition. Sure would like to know what to expect from Reed next season. He could be a real key

I’m assuming they don’t go big on a starter, and instead go big on bullpen.

[DocBauer]

I’m assuming they don’t go big on a starter, and instead go big on bullpen.

Could absolutely see that, and concentrate on Romero, Thorpe, Wells, etc.

[Thrylos]

I don't get the love for Hildenberger compared to Drake (especially) and Magill.  Here are their numbers:

 

Hildenberger:  5.25 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, -1.53 WPA, 22.0 K%, 14.1 K-BB%
Drake: 2.33 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 0.03 WPA, 25.0 K%, 15.8 K-BB%
Magill: 3.88 ERA, 5.19 FIP, 1.46 WHIP, 0.36 WPA, 22.0 K%, 12.6 K-BB%

 

That -1.53 WPA stinks a lot.  Unlike the other 2, he did lose games.  Drake has a funky delivery also and has been more effective across the board.

 

I think that only Rogers, May, and maybe Reed (if healthy; and he does not look it) belong in a contenders bullpen.  Maybe even one of the 3 above, but I'd take Drake at this point.  That's 3 new arms and better be 8 and 9 inning types.

[DocBauer]

Hildenberger 2017:

 

3.21ERA/ .241BA/ 1.05WHIP

 

Just basic numbers. But good numbers. 38 hits in 42 IP and 44-6 SO/BB.

 

Hildenberger 2018:

 

April: 4.26ERA/ .245BA/ 1.11WHIP

May: 1.93ERA/ .196BA/ .86WHIP

June: 3.55ERA/ .217BA/ 1.26WHIP

July: 5.40ERA/ .283BA/ 1.46WHIP

Aug: 6.75ERA/ .288BA/ 1.58WHIP

Sept: 11.88ERA/ .333BA/ 1.92WHIP

 

Toss in 72IP/ 25BB/ 70SO

 

I admit, the numbers surprised me when I looked closer. I see a very successful 2017 season followed by a good first half 2018 before it appears the wheels began to fall off. Was he over used or over exposed? Not sure i have the answer. I'd like to think 2017 and the first half of 2018 indicates we have a quality reliever to work with and believe in. The second half of 2018 is making me worrisome.

[Linus]

They have one guy you can count on in Taylor Rogers. The rest are mediocre at best that’s why I didn’t like the Pressly trade. Big big project to get this mess cleaned up

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins bullpen hasn't been horrible, slightly worse in terms of WPA than the peripherals but, either way, just a little below average. The free agent options don't appear to be particularly great (even Miller and Kimbrel are declining). 

 

So the reality is that the Twins can't dramatically improve the bullpen through free agency, and that's typically a bad strategy even when the options are better. It's also an area that is most readily addressed by in-season trades. 

 

Maybe they should consider an off-season trade, but again, trading valuable pieces for relievers is usually a bad idea. There's going to be a lot of complaining on here about the bullpen this off-season but the reality doesn't align with the wish-casting.