Kepler

[Twodogs]

Also for those saying their eyes say he doesn't hit the ball hard. What do your eyes say about Rosario? Because Kepler has a higher avg exit velo than Rosario, and a higher "hard hit (95mph+) %" than Rosario.

 

Of course 14.7% of the fly balls Rosario hits are leaving the park, while its 7% for Kepler

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

I like this comparison between Rosie and Kep. One thing that my eye test says is that Rosario is less predictable, a la sorta like Vladimir Guerrero,(obviously I'm not comparing to Vlad's production), just that he swings at lots of different pitches and you don't really know when or where it's going. It seems as though Kepler is more controlled and you can use data to figure out when and where Kepler is going to hit it? Maybe Kepler is getting beat by the shifts and whatnot?? Just a guess.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Also for those saying their eyes say he doesn't hit the ball hard. What do your eyes say about Rosario? Because Kepler has a higher avg exit velo than Rosario, and a higher "hard hit (95mph+) %" than Rosario. 

 

Of course 14.7% of the fly balls Rosario hits are leaving the park, while its 7% for Kepler

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

 

As far as swings go, I don't know if there are two more different swing planes in the lineup than Kepler and Rosario. Rosario is a barrel turner. Gets the bat turning behind him and behind the zone. Kepler frequently has a steep approach and then levels out. Their fly ball profiles (e.g. exit velo, launch angle) are almost identical but Rosario's average distance is 15 feet further than Kepler's. I suspect this is because Kepler's swing imparts more top spin on the ball at contact (the steeper your approach angle, the more likely you will be to get top spin).

 

Take a look at the difference in barrel approach. Kepler's = steep. Rosario = behind the ball. 

 

 

The swing approach also says a lot about what pitches they are able to elevate. Kepler is basically able to elevate pitches that are in the middle third of the zone (horizontally). Rosario's barrel turn allows him to lift pitches that are middle AND the upper third of the zone. 

 

It's also why Rosario is much better at hitting pitches in the upper part of the strike zone (310/359/565 over last two years) compared to Kepler (176/302/290 in the same time). 

 

 

 

[alarp33]

As far as swings go, I don't know if there are two more different swing planes in the lineup than Kepler and Rosario.

Good info. To be clear I wasn’t comparing Rosario / Kepler as hitters, just disagreeing with those saying Kepler “doesn’t hit the ball hard”

[blindeke]

Kepler has homered twice in two days, 2 for 2 today. Orioles pitching seems to change your luck.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Good info. To be clear I wasn’t comparing Rosario / Kepler as hitters, just disagreeing with those saying Kepler “doesn’t hit the ball hard”

 

Sorry, I wasn't trying to suggest that you were. I hijacked the thread and jumped on a soapbox.

 

I think there are times when people look at the available data and see that these two hitters have very similar batted ball profiles but wildly different results. I'm trying to illuminate some of the difference that may seem minute but are really drivers in how a hitter's results can differ. 

 

To me, this is particularly important because the game has changed (THANKS ANALYTICS) and pitchers are now attacking the top of the zone more frequently. Hitters like Kepler whose swing is designed for middle-down will be challenged to make quality contact with pitches up. Players with barrel turn tendencies like Rosario will have a little more of an advantage. 

 

This isn't necessarily mainstream yet but I know of several teams that have begun to ID players based on these swing tendencies. The Dodgers and Dbacks have hitting advisers (different from hitting coaches) who are in the system trying to get hitters to get a swing path closer to Rosario's over Kepler's. 

 

And to be clear, there's nothing wrong with Kepler's swing. We've seen him send a few out lately and he definitely hits the ball hard (via exit velo). His swing path, however, has a smaller margin for error than Rosario's (which can cover different speeds better). 

[Vanimal46]

Sorry, I wasn't trying to suggest that you were. I hijacked the thread and jumped on a soapbox.

 

I think there are times when people look at the available data and see that these two hitters have very similar batted ball profiles but wildly different results. I'm trying to illuminate some of the difference that may seem minute but are really drivers in how a hitter's results can differ.

 

To me, this is particularly important because the game has changed (THANKS ANALYTICS) and pitchers are now attacking the top of the zone more frequently. Hitters like Kepler whose swing is designed for middle-down will be challenged to make quality contact with pitches up. Players with barrel turn tendencies like Rosario will have a little more of an advantage.

 

This isn't necessarily mainstream yet but I know of several teams that have begun to ID players based on these swing tendencies. The Dodgers and Dbacks have hitting advisers (different from hitting coaches) who are in the system trying to get hitters to get a swing path closer to Rosario's over Kepler's.

 

And to be clear, there's nothing wrong with Kepler's swing. We've seen him send a few out lately and he definitely hits the ball hard (via exit velo). His swing path, however, has a smaller margin for error than Rosario's (which can cover different speeds better).

Very interesting stuff, thanks!

 

If the Twins are hiring for that position of Hitting Advisor, I think you have a good chance getting the job!

[alarp33]

 

Sorry, I wasn't trying to suggest that you were. I hijacked the thread and jumped on a soapbox.

 

I think there are times when people look at the available data and see that these two hitters have very similar batted ball profiles but wildly different results. I'm trying to illuminate some of the difference that may seem minute but are really drivers in how a hitter's results can differ. 

 

To me, this is particularly important because the game has changed (THANKS ANALYTICS) and pitchers are now attacking the top of the zone more frequently. Hitters like Kepler whose swing is designed for middle-down will be challenged to make quality contact with pitches up. Players with barrel turn tendencies like Rosario will have a little more of an advantage. 

 

This isn't necessarily mainstream yet but I know of several teams that have begun to ID players based on these swing tendencies. The Dodgers and Dbacks have hitting advisers (different from hitting coaches) who are in the system trying to get hitters to get a swing path closer to Rosario's over Kepler's. 

 

And to be clear, there's nothing wrong with Kepler's swing. We've seen him send a few out lately and he definitely hits the ball hard (via exit velo). His swing path, however, has a smaller margin for error than Rosario's (which can cover different speeds better). 

 

 

Did you catch the A-Rod / Mike Trout interview last night during Sunday Night Baseball?  Thoughts? The inside out approach seems more similar to what Kepler is doing vs Rosario, no? The last few minutes specifically seem to talk about this

 

 

 

[Jham]

I remember a thread last season, or maybe in the fangraphs thread regarding his approach and launch angle. I believe it suggested that he tended to hit a lot of really hard grounders. His steep swing means his grounders are pulled. It also means his opposite field swing produces lots of pop ups. Eye test already knew that.

 

His steep swing plane is actually really close to Mauer's. Where Mauer seems to roll his hands over really hard and fast to stay on top of the ball to left making it really hard to elevate to the pull side. Kepler does the opposite. He finishes through the ball, which drives the ball to right and loops of the ball to left. But he has to square it up to elevate to right = no cheap homers. Think of all of Mauer's pulled HR, they're normally crush jobs. This swing would predict a low HR to fly ball rate and high velocity ground balls.

 

I'm no swing coach. but I'd have him work off a tee. Tee it up higher than he feels comfortable, and see exactly what he does to get in top of that ball. Right now, he, like Mauer, must go down then up. Joe has the wrist speed, Kepler doesn't right now.

[Jham]

https://www.twincities.com/2018/03/05/max-kepler-wont-change-his-launch-angle-just-for-homers-sake/

 

From March. It's concerning that he had to figure out the steep angle by himself and with help outside the organization and once he reached the majors...

[Parker Hageman]

His steep swing plane is actually really close to Mauer's...

 

 

Mauer pivots his barrel so he doesn't wind up getting steep in his attack approach like Kepler does. 

 

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/983525604271280128

 

Mauer's shoulder rotation actually is closer to what Pete Rose did. 

 

 

This is another reason why Mauer is very good at getting to pitches up in the zone. He doesn't create the bat speed behind him like Rosario does but he pivot so he's able to cover the upper portions of the zone well. Take a look at his zone BA against fastballs versus Kepler's. Kepler covers down and in, middle and able to get the far upper portion of the zone. Mauer is almost the inverse of that. 

 

 

[ashbury]

As far as swings go, I don't know if there are two more different swing planes in the lineup than Kepler and Rosario. Rosario is a barrel turner. Gets the bat turning behind him and behind the zone. Kepler frequently has a steep approach and then levels out.

Wrists versus shoulders, basically?

[ewen21]

Not sure where I heard it first, but I feel the same way.  Kepler at his best reminds me of Morneau a little, if Morneau was a 20 HR guy

[ashbury]

Not sure where I heard it first, but I feel the same way.  Kepler at his best reminds me of Morneau a little, if Morneau was a 20 HR guy

... and could play the outfield, and do a mean tour en l'air or grand jeté.

 

[Parker Hageman]

 

Wrists versus shoulders, basically?

 

It's more barrel direction.

 

If you look at the GIF again, watch the initial movement of the barrel. Rosario's goes back toward the catcher. Kepler's comes forward with him. Rosario goes flat before turning forward. He's on plane with the pitch well in advance. Kepler's swing doesn't get him on plane until later (which is the steeper approach to the ball). 

 

[Number3]

Kepler is the least of the Twins' issues. Don't forget he is a German who someone associated with the Twins blundered into and thank goodness they did. My question continues to be, how does a number 1 overall pick in MLB continue to have to learn the game in the minor leagues?

Wouldn't surprise me if the Twins traded Kepler for a relief pitcher to replace Rodney who they will also trade. The 4 game sweep of the Os probably scared Twins management.

[Jham]

It's more barrel direction.

 

If you look at the GIF again, watch the initial movement of the barrel. Rosario's goes back toward the catcher. Kepler's comes forward with him. Rosario goes flat before turning forward. He's on plane with the pitch well in advance. Kepler's swing doesn't get him on plane until later (which is the steeper approach to the ball).

In fact, the thing I find most striking in the Gifs is the chest angle of the 2 corner outfielders. Kepler's chest is pointing towards the ground. Rosie is up, Mauer is up. Interestingly, I first started watching the chest angle when I heard scouts criticizing Buxton for the same thing. Try rotating your shoulders while standing up straight vs leaning over.

[ewen21]

 

... and could play the outfield, and do a mean tour en l'air or grand jeté.

 

 

I am just hoping he continues on this recent trend.  He's looked pretty decent lately.

 

Before this season started, I was telling anyone who would listen to watch Kepler and Polanco.  Those were "my guys" going into this season.  I am expecting Max to be over ,260 with 20 something home runs when this year is done

[jimbo92107]

I think Max Kepler is going to keep getting better. He's a very technique-oriented guy, and this season he focused on learning how to square up against left-handed pitchers. It's working, but for some reason his numbers are down against righties. I expect him to correct that deficiency in the second half. 

[snepp]

Awesome stuff Parker.

 

 

 

That's all, carry on.

[70charger]

 

Kepler is the least of the Twins' issues. Don't forget he is a German who someone associated with the Twins blundered into and thank goodness they did. My question continues to be, how does a number 1 overall pick in MLB continue to have to learn the game in the minor leagues?

Wouldn't surprise me if the Twins traded Kepler for a relief pitcher to replace Rodney who they will also trade. The 4 game sweep of the Os probably scared Twins management.

 

It amazes me how you've managed to miss the point, ignore the great information in the rest of the thread, belittle a very accomplished, longtime European scout, and cast unwarranted aspersions on the team the rest of us are rooting for, all in one little paragraph.

 

I'm not even mad. I'm impressed.

[ashbury]

It amazes me how you've managed to miss the point, ignore the great information in the rest of the thread, belittle a very accomplished, longtime European scout, and cast unwarranted aspersions on the team the rest of us are rooting for, all in one little paragraph.

 

I'm not even mad. I'm impressed.

Moderator's note: this seems destined to lead to bickering, and I ask that it stop here.