Article: From The Handbook: Free Agent Starters

[John Bonnes]

This year's Twins Daily Offseason Handbook included profiles of 22(!) free agent starting pitchers that the Twins could pursue. Below are a few examples. You can still download your own Offseason Handbook AND name your own price right here.

 

Acquiring starting pitchers through free agency is a fickle endeavor. Sometimes it goes right (Ervin Santana). Sometimes it goes wrong (Ricky Nolasco). Sometimes it goes very right, and then very wrong (Phil Hughes). Assessing these arms and how they’ll progress over the life of a contract will forever be an inexact science. But aiming higher typically yields better results.The Twins already have a number of credible starters in the mix, but if they are setting their sights on a postseason run, they could use a stud to slot in alongside Santana and Jose Berrios. This year’s class features some very noteworthy names.

 

Jake Arrieta, RHP

Age: 32 | Previous Team: Cubs

2017 Stats: 168.1 IP, 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

 

Arrieta had one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory when he

won the Cy Young in 2015, and he won 18 games in 2016. He didn’t look

like himself in the first half this year, but pulled things together in the

second half, posting a 2.28 ERA after the break. He turns 32 in March and

his fastball velocity was at a career low (92.1 MPH), so there might be some

hesitation in his market, but the Scott Boras client will get paid.

Estimated Contract: 6 years, $168 million

 

Lance Lynn, RHP

Age: 30 | Previous Team: Cardinals

2017 Stats: 186.1 IP, 11-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

 

After missing 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Lynn came back strong in

2017, starting every fifth day and getting better as the season progressed.

His velocity trended upward throughout the summer and in the second half

he mostly looked like a rotation-fronter. Lynn has a 3.38 career ERA and

has been extremely reliable in St. Louis. He’s also two years younger than

Arrieta.

Estimated Contract: 6 years, $150 million

 

Yu Darvish, RHP

Age: 31 | Previous Team: Dodgers

2017 Stats: 186.2 IP, 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

 

He is one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers, with an 11.0 K/9 rate

that ranks first among active starters since coming over from Japan in 2012.

The results haven’t always lined up with the spectacular stuff, and this

year in particular Darvish had his battles, especially with the long ball. He

posted the highest ERA and lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2017, so

there’s some risk here, but Darvish certainly has the ability to slot as an ace.

Estimated Contract: 5 years, $135 million

 

Other Options:

Alex Cobb, RHP (30): Cobb’s market will be interesting to see. He hasn’t been

quite the same since returning from Tommy John surgery but was still quite effective

this year (3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) and set a career high for innings.

 

Jaime Garcia, LHP (31): The left-hander enjoyed a lengthy and illustrious career

with the Twins, making one start in July as the Twins flipped from buyers to sellers.

On the right terms he’d be a fine addition, but his upside is limited.

 

Francisco Liriano, LHP (34): Reunion time? All these years later, Liriano is still

struggling to find himself. He pitched out of the bullpen exclusively after a deadline

trade to Houston, and might be more interesting in that capacity if he could

just throw some dang strikes.

 

Michael Pineda, RHP (29): He’s one of the game’s better strikeout pitchers and a

former young phenom, but Pineda has already gone through a bunch of shoulder

issues and he underwent Tommy John in June. Do you ink him on a two-year contract,

hoping he can help down the stretch in 2018 but more with an eye on scoring

big value in 2019?

 

CC Sabathia, LHP (37): As a member of the Indians and Yankees, he’s been a

thorn in Minnesota’s side for almost two decades. His performance in the past two

seasons suggests he’s not done getting results. Plus, if he joins up, he’ll never need to face the Twins’ bunt-happy offense.

 

There are 62 pages of Twins-focused offseason goodness just waiting for you to obsess over. Just name your own price and you can immediately download theTwins Daily Offseason Handbook.

 

Click here to view the article

[diehardtwinsfan]

I want one of Lynn or Darvish..  Pretty meh to the rest of the crowd.

[Brandon]

how do you figure Lynn get 150 million. that number is over 50 million or more then what he will actually get.

[beckmt]

 

how do you figure Lynn get 150 million. that number is over 50 million or more then what he will actually get.

I have not seen numbers that high, but have seen in the 4 or 5/$100 range, and it could be a players market at the top end.

[Nick Nelson]

 

how do you figure Lynn get 150 million. that number is over 50 million or more then what he will actually get.

As always, these are kind of shots in the dark, and I admit that one was probably quite a bit too high, but the thinking is this:

 

He's younger than Arrieta or Darvish. He's been very consistent, never posting an ERA of 4.00 or higher (albeit in the NL). Outside of sitting out 2016 with TJ surgery, he's basically never missed a start. And he bounced back nicely from that setback this season, especially in the second half (2.99 ERA July-through-Sept).

 

He's not the flashiest name on the market but he might be the safest. That could count for a lot. 

[terrydactyls]

Take that money and extend the contracts of the young stars already on the team and not spend it all on one player.

[Vanimal46]

 

I want one of Lynn or Darvish..  Pretty meh to the rest of the crowd.

 

Concur. The only other person I have a remote interest in is Pineda. Overall he's pretty meh though. 

[Vanimal46]

If any team signs Arrieta to that estimated contract, good luck to them. I have a feeling he's going to fall off the proverbial cliff within the next 1-2 years.  

Edited November 20, 2017 by Vanimal46

[jorgenswest]

Lance Lynn among Dave Cameron’s free agent land mines.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/