Article: Knock. Knock. Silence.

[markos]

I think John's $28M estimate is way too low - probably half what would be required. As others have already pointed out, Buxton and Sano both already received multi-million dollar signing bonuses, so their league-minimum salaries understate their financial security. Then if you look at other comparable players who recently signed, several (Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier) have signed for at least $50M guaranteed. Francisco Lindor reportedly turned down a $100M deal. Finally, I think that most players (and agents) are expecting the Machado/Harper/Kershaw free agent class to completely reset the salary scale. So I think some of that expected jump will need to be baked into any long-term offer.

 

If I'm advising Buxton/Sano/Rosario, I'm suggestion two options. Either take a cheap deal without giving up any FA years (think something like a 4yr/$20M deal); or, take a massive deal that covers FA years or has team options (think something like 6yr/$80M with $20M option years). Anything in between is giving up too much earning potential.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think John's $28M estimate is way too low - probably half what would be required. As others have already pointed out, Buxton and Sano both already received multi-million dollar signing bonuses, so their league-minimum salaries understate their financial security. Then if you look at other comparable players who recently signed, several (Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier) have signed for at least $50M guaranteed. Francisco Lindor reportedly turned down a $100M deal. Finally, I think that most players (and agents) are expecting the Machado/Harper/Kershaw free agent class to completely reset the salary scale. So I think some of that expected jump will need to be baked into any long-term offer.

 

If I'm advising Buxton/Sano/Rosario, I'm suggestion two options. Either take a cheap deal without giving up any FA years (think something like a 4yr/$20M deal); or, take a massive deal that covers FA years or has team options (think something like 6yr/$80M with $20M option years). Anything in between is giving up too much earning potential.

 

Agreed. The average guaranteed dollars from that Fangraphs blog I posted before said $40 million for players in the 2-3 year service time window. If the Twins are buying out FA years, they'll have to step up and pay them $20-25 million each year. 

 

EDIT: Yes, the Machado/Harper/Kershaw FA class next season is going to break everything we know about the salary scale. I can't wait to see the enormous contracts they sign. 

Edited October 11, 2017 by Vanimal46

[drjim]

Buxton would have to be something like 1-5-9-12-22-22-etc at a minimum, and that is probably underselling it by a decent margin.

 

These extensions are much more desirable when the money is comically understated. None of these hitters, not even Rosario, is giving up the first year of free agency for 10.5mil. Berrios might be a slightly different story, being a pitcher and locking him up two years before arb.

[howieramone2]

I would lock up Sano and Buxton, as long as possible, hopefully this off season, but no later than next. Berrios I would wait on because all pitchers have injury concerns. It doesn't have to be done anytime soon, but feel you will need to choose between Rosario and Kepler at some point in time. I look at Polanco as the odd man out, because it certainly appears we have an abundance of middle infielders in the pipeline. 

 

If we keep the right 4, we should be able to extend the window. Masterful job of accumulating talent by Terry Ryan.

Edited October 11, 2017 by howieramone2

[Otto von Ballpark]

In regards to my posts upthread (about Sano, Buxton, and Rosario being just 1 year away from arbitration), it should be noted that Berrios is still 2 years away.  Coupled with pitcher injury volatility, there would be seem to be the best potential to work out a team-friendly extension for him right now.

[yarnivek1972]

Re: Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier.

 

Simmons, Yellich and Kiermaier all posted seasons with at least an fWAR OF 4.5 before cashing in. Buxton’s best is 3.5. Rosario’s best is 2.2. Sano’s best is 2.3. That’s a rather substantial gap IMO especially since much of Buxton’s WAR value is still tied to his defense. Odor’s struggles since cashing in would seem to be exactly the reason why you DON’T give the money to a young guy that hasn’t posted a 4.5 fWAR.

 

Point being if those are the names people are using to say the Twins should lock Buxton, Rosario and Sano up NOW, I am even more confident in my position in waiting until next year.

[Vanimal46]

 

Re: Andrelton Simmons, Christian Yelich, Rougned Odor, Kevin Kiermaier.

Simmons, Yellich and Kiermaier all posted seasons with at least an fWAR OF 4.5 before cashing in. Buxton’s best is 3.5. Rosario’s best is 2.2. Sano’s best is 2.3. That’s a rather substantial gap IMO especially since much of Buxton’s WAR value is still tied to his defense. Odor’s struggles since cashing in would seem to be exactly the reason why you DON’T give the money to a young guy that hasn’t posted a 4.5 fWAR.

Point being if those are the names people are using to say the Twins should lock Buxton, Rosario and Sano up NOW, I am even more confident in my position in waiting until next year.

 

Would it make you feel better that Buxton has 5.1 bWAR? 

[Vanimal46]

It's not like this is an urgent matter to sign any of these guys before they leave. Just know that the dollar signs are going to rise dramatically each year that passes.

 

Frankly, it's probably not smart for the Twins in their situation to wait when salary ranges break because of the mega 2018 FA class.

[yarnivek1972]

Would it make you feel better that Buxton has 5.1 bWAR?

 

Kiermaier posted a 7.3, and Simmons a 7.0 bWAR before cashing in. So, no. The numbers say “not yet” IMO. Odor and Yelich’s pre-contract bWARs weren’t as good as Buxton’s this year. But given their inconsistency since, it seems to reinforce the strategy of waiting. The Twins might be able to afford being wrong about one of them. They certainly can’t afford to be wrong about all 3. By that I mean if the Twins extend all 3 for the next 5 years and none of them live up to it, the franchise is destroyed for the next ten years.

 

As I said, those 3 simply haven’t been good enough to earn a long term commitment yet IMO.

[drjim]

 

In regards to my posts upthread (about Sano, Buxton, and Rosario being just 1 year away from arbitration), it should be noted that Berrios is still 2 years away.  Coupled with pitcher injury volatility, there would be seem to be the best potential to work out a team-friendly extension for him right now.

 

I would endorse an extension for Berrios, but wouldn't be especially offended if they decided to wait 2-3 years. Good (enough) extensions for non elite pitchers can be had throughout the pre-arb and arb years.

 

That said, he seems like a decent guy to invest in, unless you are nervous about his height and if that leads to more injury concerns.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kiermaier posted a 7.3, and Simmons a 7.0 bWAR before cashing in. So, no. The numbers say “not yet” IMO. Odor and Yelich’s pre-contract bWARs weren’t as good as Buxton’s this year. But given their inconsistency since, it seems to reinforce the strategy of waiting. The Twins might be able to afford being wrong about one of them. They certainly can’t afford to be wrong about all 3. By that I mean if the Twins extend all 3 for the next 5 years and none of them live up to it, the franchise is destroyed for the next ten years.

As I said, those 3 simply haven’t been good enough to earn a long term commitment yet IMO.

Odor was a poor defender and barely average overall bat when the Rangers extended him.  Peak of 2.4 bWAR at the time.  That should hardly be a cautionary tale for Buxton.

 

Kiermaier and Simmons would be far better comps for Buxton, given their defensive prowess.  Yelich too, albeit from a corner OF spot.  All 3 have been solid since they signed their deals, averaging 4+ WAR per season.

 

Obviously there is risk, but I suspect if you wait to see anything more from Buxton, this type of deal will be off the table.

[yarnivek1972]

Odor was a poor defender and barely average overall bat when the Rangers extended him. Peak of 2.4 bWAR at the time. That should hardly be a cautionary tale for Buxton.

 

Kiermaier and Simmons would be far better comps for Buxton, given their defensive prowess. Yelich too, albeit from a corner OF spot. All 3 have been solid since they signed their deals, averaging 4+ WAR per season.

 

Obviously there is risk, but I suspect if you wait to see anything more from Buxton, this type of deal will be off the table.

I would agree that of the 3 Buxton is probably the lowest risk, simply because his defense is always going to be a huge part of his contribution.

 

That said, his peak is/was still substantially lower than Simmons and Kiermaier. If I only attempted one, he would definitely be the one I would try to do. Nothing prevents negotiating a deal mid-season next year either. That policy was an artificial excuse of the previous regime.

 

I still say wait and at least see how they start next season. Right now, a much higher risk of an extension falls on the Twins side IMO. It will even out after next year, or at least by midseason of next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would agree that of the 3 Buxton is probably the lowest risk, simply because his defense is always going to be a huge part of his contribution.

That said, his peak is/was still substantially lower than Simmons and Kiermaier. If I only attempted one, he would definitely be the one I would try to do. Nothing prevents negotiating a deal mid-season next year either. That policy was an artificial excuse of the previous regime.

I still say wait and at least see how they start next season. Right now, a much higher risk of an extension falls on the Twins side IMO. It will even out after next year, or at least by midseason of next year.

Again, I don't know if you can wait, even just until midseason.  Simmons and Yelich were both 2 years away from arbitration when they signed; Kiermaier was 1-2 years away depending on the super-2 cutoff.  Buxton might not be likely to sign a similar deal now just 1 year away; he almost certainly will not when he is only ~3 months away.

 

If you are content with eventually signing a Dozier type arb buyout deal (a little arb discount, no FA/option years), sure, go ahead and wait.  If you want the chance to get a special player on a special deal, I think you have to act now (assuming it is still even possible).

[USAFChief]

Again, I don't know if you can wait, even just until midseason. Simmons and Yelich were both 2 years away from arbitration when they signed; Kiermaier was 1-2 years away depending on the super-2 cutoff. Buxton might not be likely to sign a similar deal now just 1 year away; he almost certainly will not when he is only ~3 months away.

 

If you are content with eventually signing a Dozier type arb buyout deal (a little arb discount, no FA/option years), sure, go ahead and wait. If you want the chance to get a special player on a special deal, I think you have to act now (assuming it is still even possible).

I fear it might already be too late to get a decent discount. The incentives for Buxton to sign such a deal are melting away. His chances of not having an MLB career at this point are down to injury risk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I fear it might already be too late to get a decent discount.

Yeah, that's my fear too.  A normal player 1 year away would be fairly unlikely.  My hope is that Buxton's slow start might neutralize that a bit?

 

Then again, thanks to his signing bonus, Buxton has already pocketed about $6 mil more than Kiermaier at the same point last year...

[Seth Stohs]

 

As expensive as Mauer was, the organization would have been worse off not paying him the money. And I think the team got very good value from Dozier's mid-length deal. Same with Ervin. But there's always risk as we found out with Phil Hughes, and that's why it's a gamble. These six players all show signs of being valuable players, and for that reason it's probably in the best long-term interest of the team to pay long-term money. And don't forget that teams usually insure contracts to give the team relief in case of player injury.

 

Mauer signed one year later than where these guys are right now, and he signed a  4 year, $33 million contract that bought out (I believe) one year of free agency. Then came the big deal. The Twins - under Ryan - signed a lot of guys to these types of deals, buying out 1-2 years of arbitration. They did it with Morneau, Cuddyer, Hunter, Johan and a few others. 

[drjim]

Yeah, that's my fear too. A normal player 1 year away would be fairly unlikely. My hope is that Buxton's slow start might neutralize that a bit?

 

Then again, thanks to his signing bonus, Buxton has already pocketed about $6 mil more than Kiermaier at the same point last year...

If it's too late for Buxton then they never really had a chance.

[drjim]

Mauer signed one year later than where these guys are right now, and he signed a 4 year, $33 million contract that bought out (I believe) one year of free agency. Then came the big deal. The Twins - under Ryan - signed a lot of guys to these types of deals, buying out 1-2 years of arbitration. They did it with Morneau, Cuddyer, Hunter, Johan and a few others.

Morneau and Cuddyer were signed by Bill Smith, Nathan the same year. (Though in fairness, it was also when Hunter walked and after Target Field was approved).

 

The first Mauer contract was a big mistake by Ryan, way too short. Set the stage for the albatross to follow. He did well with Johan and Hunter though.

[Vanimal46]

 

If it's too late for Buxton then they never really had a chance.

 

Concur. This is the first season he's had sustained production for more than a month. It's possible they don't have a chance and he wants to explore FA as soon as he can like Harper, Machado, Arenado, etc.

[gocgo]

Lock them all up at reasonable salaries with bonus $ for # of at bats.  That way, they have incentive to stay healthy and the odds are if they are all healthy, the Twins have success.  Look, Buxton is great, but Rosario has incredibly quick hands at the plate and a great arm to go with good speed.  Rosario was good this year, but he has a chance to be elite.  If we can lock up the outfield for many years, the pitching gets easier to come by.  No pitcher wants to play with bad defense behind him and every pitcher wants to pitch with good defense behind him.  Lock them up and then work on pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

Did you read the blogs vanimal supplied from Fangraphs, and their analysis of these deals and why they either aren't happening, or need to be MUCH LARGER to happen?

[LaBombo]

Of the Big Four, you sign whoever is most likely to flash the cash around their teammates. It totally blows to not have money when your peers do, so the other three fall like dominoes. Boom. Group discount.

 

You're welcome.

Edited October 11, 2017 by LaBombo

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If it's too late for Buxton then they never really had a chance.

True. Given Buxton's struggles, there probably wasn't an extension to be had a year ago.  I'm not really blaming the FO with this line of thought, just saying if there is a chance to get him locked up long-term on a team-friendly deal, it would be now, not later.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The first Mauer contract was a big mistake by Ryan, way too short. Set the stage for the albatross to follow. He did well with Johan and Hunter though.

Yeah, TR waited way too long to lock up Mauer.  He was almost destined to be a Twin for life, we should have been able to get something done.  In 2005 after he returned from the knee injury at the latest.  As it was, we didn't sign him until after he won the 2006 batting title and was eligible for arbitration.

[yarnivek1972]

Of the Big Four, you sign whoever is most likely to flash the cash around their teammates. It totally blows to not have money when your peers do, so the other three fall like dominoes. Boom. Group discount.

 

You're welcome.

That would be fine if they weren’t already making half a million per. They already HAVE money.

 

As for the extensions themselves, I simply disagree with extending them at this time. If I’m going to potentially commit an 8 figure salary for 2 years at the tail end of the contract, I better be pretty sure these are players that are going to be productive at that point. In the cases of Rosario and Sano, we’re talking about players who have never posted an fWAR over 2.5. IMO, that’s not worth 8 figures, particularly when we are talking about a corner OFer and (by that time most likely) a first baseman. If your farm system can’t crank out 2 corners to produce better than that in the next 4 years, your organization is in pretty bad shape IMO.

 

Sure, maybe they get better. Maybe they don’t. Cristian Guzman never did. He posted an fWAR of 3.9 as a 23 year old and posted above 1.8 exactly one more time in his career.

[drjim]

 

True. Given Buxton's struggles, there probably wasn't an extension to be had a year ago.  I'm not really blaming the FO with this line of thought, just saying if there is a chance to get him locked up long-term on a team-friendly deal, it would be now, not later.

 

I agree with this. They have to move on Buxton this offseason or it likely does not happen at all.

 

I don't think Sano is an option this offseason and looking like he won't be during his time here, unless he really wants to be a Twin. Once the free agents sign next offseason it's game over.

 

The others can wait without that much of a difference. Extension is fine, another year probably doesn't matter a whole lot on their ability to keep them.

[yarnivek1972]

Let’s step into the shoes of Derek Falvey for a minute. Are you really prepared to bank the rest of your career on 2 guys that have never posted fWARs above 2.5 and another who posted a 3.5 and never before above 1.7?

 

It’s real easy to say “extend them all” when it isn’t your job on the line if they don’t pan out.

[drjim]

 

Let’s step into the shoes of Derek Falvey for a minute. Are you really prepared to bank the rest of your career on 2 guys that have never posted fWARs above 2.5 and another who posted a 3.5 and never before above 1.7?

It’s real easy to say “extend them all” when it isn’t your job on the line if they don’t pan out.

 

I would bank my career on Buxton, and to a lesser extent Berrios. I would be comfortable punting on Rosario/Kepler/Polanco for a season, and I don't think I would go huge on Sano this offseason.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I fear it might already be too late to get a decent discount. The incentives for Buxton to sign such a deal are melting away. His chances of not having an MLB career at this point are down to injury risk.

 

which for Buxton is not a small risk in my opinion.  Same with Sano. Both have had their fair share of injuries both in the majors and minors.

[Vanimal46]

 

Let’s step into the shoes of Derek Falvey for a minute. Are you really prepared to bank the rest of your career on 2 guys that have never posted fWARs above 2.5 and another who posted a 3.5 and never before above 1.7?

It’s real easy to say “extend them all” when it isn’t your job on the line if they don’t pan out.

 

On the other side of the coin, are they prepared to lose Buxton after 6 years if he develops into a star? Because if Buxton reaches the potential we think he can be (5-8 WAR player) then he will be out of Minnesota's budget.