Article: Deadline Primer: Should Nick Gordon Be On The Table?

[jorgenswest]

It is hard to imagine Santana ever having more value than he will at this deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It is hard to imagine Santana ever having more value than he will at this deadline.

 

Agreed, next off season he has 1/2 year less control. And, he's been good again this year.

 

It really depends on the next week or so. They win a lot, keep him. They lose a lot, trade him. They "meh" a lot, um, I probably trade him, but will not villify them if they don't*

 

*unless we learn of an incredible package, of course, which I doubt.

[Minnesotatwins005]

It just takes one desperate team who thinks they are one SP away to make a deep playoff run to offer a solid package to outbid a rival team. If they don't get any decent offers for Santana then just keep him the rest of the year, but I have a feeling he won't be on the team falling the trade deadline.

[jimmer]

 

It is hard to imagine Santana ever having more value than he will at this deadline.

Well, LAST deadline comes to mind ;-)

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-accurately-rate-underrated-jose-quintana/

 

[Sweetwater]

Not.Even.Close. Jimmy Rollins had 20+ HRs and 30+ SB 5 times his career, including 30+ HRs and 40+ SB once. 8 seasons of 3.5+ fWAR and 3 seasons of 5+ fWAR. 1 MVP, 3 gold gloves and career 3.5 UZR/150 (peak 15.1) at SS. Career 49.4 fWAR. Rollins was a superstar. I'd be happy if Gordon gets close, but I don't even see him stick at SS...

Why are u comparing major league stats when Gordon doesn't have any? This is a projection based on talent and physical ability. No need to be so pessimistic. Rollins wasn't a power hitter until he was in his middle late 20's. Gordon is starting to show signs of that developing. To say "not even close" is a heavy-handed falsehood. I'm sure many scouts would rank Gordon on a similar plane as Rollins as prospects.

[Mr. Brooks]

Why are u comparing major league stats when Gordon doesn't have any? This is a projection based on talent and physical ability. No need to be so pessimistic. Rollins wasn't a power hitter until he was in his middle late 20's. Gordon is starting to show signs of that developing. To say "not even close" is a heavy-handed falsehood. I'm sure many scouts would rank Gordon on a similar plane as Rollins as prospects.

Yeah Rollins only averaged 13 HR per season, and had a career 95 OPS+.

Gordon likely will never be as good defensively, but it seems bizarre to suggest that he can't be at least as good offensively.

Of course Thrylos has never been high on Gordon. I think he projected Vielma to have the better career a few times last year.

[yarnivek1972]

 

I can kinda guess.  Bartolo Colon has basically been guaranteed a rotation spot after the All-Star break.  Don't believe me watch the Falvey interview he was smiling ear to ear about a 44 year old starter who is absolutely struggling.  Tells you all you need to know right there.  Dumpster diving at it's finest.

 

 

Are they?  They certainly haven't fielded replacements at 1b yet and that's just over a year away.  You would think if that was the intention (let Mauer go in free agency) that auditions would be starting already but I see nothing of the sort happening.  In fact it's very possible that Mauer (who is hometown hero and worshiped like a god in some circles in the TC's) could be offered a much reduced extension carrying him to retirement (another 4 years or so). 

 

 

Wouldn't Sano be the logical replacement at 1b?   Of course, that leaves them with no one at 3b.  I don't know if he would be up for it, but perhaps Dozier could be extended and slide to 3b.  Still leaving Polanco and Gordon for the middle.  Or Blankenhorn maybe.  Jury still out on his upside.  He also might not be ready by 2019.

[Thrylos]

 

BTW, Fangraphs has Chris Archer as the 16th most valuable trade piece right now.....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-11-to-20/

 

And Jose Quintana 42nd and Marcus Stroman 47th.

 

Methinks their logic is pretty faulty

[Mike Sixel]

 

And Jose Quintana 42nd and Marcus Stroman 47th.

 

Methinks their logic is pretty faulty

 

gotta look at age, years of control, current contract amount, track record, projections, etc. It isn't a list of the best players.....

[Thrylos]

 

Of course Thrylos has never been high on Gordon. I think he projected Vielma to have the better career a few times last year.

 

No and No way

a. I ranked Gordon as the Twins' 5th prospect last off-season

b. I ranked Vielma as the Twins' 14th prospect last off-season

 

Ranking someone as the 5th best prospect does not mean "never been high"; It is pretty high.  Just not as high as the "norm".  If I thought that Vielma would have a better career than Gordon, I would have ranked him higher than Gordon.  I do think that Vielma will be a better shortstop than Gordon.

 

So, I am pretty high on Gordon, but I am not saying that a. he will be a shortstop in the majors or b. he will be a superstar and borderline hall of famer, like some.  I think that he projects as a solid bat like Greg Gagne or Todd Walker and likely a second baseman. 

 

Re:  Rollins' career 95 OPS+ :  It is still better than HOFer Ozzie Smith's 87.  Use WAR.

 

[Thrylos]

 

 

gotta look at age, years of control, current contract amount, track record, projections, etc. It isn't a list of the best players.....

 

Value.  Which means that based on what Quintana brought, Archer (and whoever they have higher) would bring the top 4 prospects in baseball or something; thus it is unrealistic, thus the "faulty" remark.

 

And I just noticed that they have Madison Bumgarner who is untradable right now, ahead of Quintana and Stroman.  Faulty for sure.

Edited July 13, 2017 by Thrylos

[Mike Sixel]

 

Value.  Which means that based on what Quintana brought, Archer (and whoever they have higher) would bring the top 4 prospects in baseball or something; thus it is unrealistic, thus the "faulty" remark.

 

And I just noticed that they have Madison Bumgarner who is untradable right now, ahead of Quintana and Stroman.  Faulty for sure.

 

Heh, it's not linear, and did you read the writeups?

 

it's easy to rip this work, but remember, he literally passes this to people on teams to get their feedback. And, Q brought back almost exactly what was predicted in terms of excess dollars and prospect value.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Sano will be a 1B before he's a DH. Likely starting in 2019.

 

I would personally extend Dozier a couple years and play him, Gordon and Polanco at 2b, ss and 3b. Be the bridge until some of the lower level bats shake out.

Nah, I think Joey Joe Joe's got one more smallish contract coming, and he'll always be a better 1B defensively than Sano. Big Mig probably mosies over to first in 2020 imo.

 

...which is good. I like him where he is.

[h2oface]

 

and just cause Dozier thinks this team is a playoff contender doesn't mean it actually is. ........

 ..... says Dozier as he gets traded (perhaps).....  

[h2oface]

 

It is hard to imagine Santana ever having more value than he will at this deadline.

 

Maybe. But if you look at the erratic and mediocre performance since May 7, I find it hard to see that he couldn't create more value if he actually pitches more consistently.... and better.

Edited July 14, 2017 by h2oface

[Thrylos]

 

Maybe. But if you look at the erratic and mediocre performance since May 7, I find it hard to see that he couldn't create more value if he actually pitches.

 

FTFY

As he proved in the All Star Game as well.

[DocBauer]

Yes to including Gordon, but I'd rather see a team in rebuild mode wanting/accepting the younger and maybe even more talented Palacios. If Gordon js gone and Dozier not extended, we suddenly go from a lot of MI depth to very little.

 

To be clear, I love Polanco and believe the bat will be there given a little more time. I like Escobar a lot. We may have a real find in Adrianza either as a utility player or solid starter, short term at least. But the jury is very much out on Vielma and everyone else is in A ball.

[snepp]

 

Wow!  If this is what it takes to land a #3 starter there is no way in hell that Falvey and Levine make a similar move such as trading for Sonny Gray before the deadline.  NO WAY!  Just insane!

 

If #3's rank in the league's top 10 multiple years running, then yes, Quintana is a "#3".

[HitInAPinch]

 

If Polanco has the arm for SS, he has the arm for 3B.....

 

And, I don't think HRs are the only measure of success for a 3B, but I agree, Gordon might be a good hitter for a SS, but might not be for a 3B.

In his 18 year career, Wade Boggs hit double-digit homers twice.  Then there's the .328 lifetime average and some Gold Gloves.  People need to start moving away from the "prototypical" position playing thingy.  

 

FWIW:  The times I saw Polanco playing 3rd, I thought he did a pretty good job. 

[70charger]

 

In his 18 year career, Wade Boggs hit double-digit homers twice.  Then there's the .328 lifetime average and some Gold Gloves.  People need to start moving away from the "prototypical" position playing thingy.  

 

Unless it's a discussion about Joe Mauer on this board.

 

*ducks*