2017 MLB draft thread

[mikecgrimes]

The top 2 pitchers sound like potential busts.  I don't care if a kid can pitch and hit at all.  You can't focus on both it would be like moving Kohl Stewart to the outfield now and hoping in 2+ years he might hit .270 with 20 Homeruns in the big leagues.  I haven't heard anything about the top position players but I'd prefer they go in that direction save some money and use the money on a pitcher that drop's

[Guest]

The last Vanderbilt pitcher drafted 1-1 (Price) was a rookie call-up to pitch as a reliever with an unexpected World Series team the year after he was drafted (2008 Tampa Bay).

[nicksaviking]

The top 2 pitchers sound like potential busts.  I don't care if a kid can pitch and hit at all.  You can't focus on both it would be like moving Kohl Stewart to the outfield now and hoping in 2+ years he might hit .270 with 20 Homeruns in the big leagues.  I haven't heard anything about the top position players but I'd prefer they go in that direction save some money and use the money on a pitcher that drop's

Isn't a pitcher who drops more likely to bust than a pitcher who goes 1-1?

[mikecgrimes]

 

Isn't a pitcher who drops more likely to bust than a pitcher who goes 1-1?

 

It's potentially the same player

[twinsfanstreif]

This was an excerpt from call to the Pen's mock draft where they picked Greene for us: "Twins brass were big on Greene this week and had a number of interesting comments hinting that he is still very strongly in consideration for the #1 pick. Previous weeks had indicated the team was moving toward college picks McKay or Wright."

 

Does anyone have any idea what they are referring to? Most mocks are shying away from Greene but this intrigues me, might have to do with McKay slipping some

[gunnarthor]

Another mock from BA - http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/

 

Have the Twins taking Wright and Heliot Ramos at 35.  Ramos is a pretty exciting player from Puerto Rico, a place the Twins have obviously not been afraid of drafting from. If he's available at 35/37, he seems like a good bet to get drafted.

[twinsfanstreif]

Another mock from BA - http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/

 

Have the Twins taking Wright and Heliot Ramos at 35. Ramos is a pretty exciting player from Puerto Rico, a place the Twins have obviously not been afraid of drafting from. If he's available at 35/37, he seems like a good bet to get drafted.

I'm a big fan of Ramos, I haven't seen any tape myself and I've heard his swing is kind of long but he has tremendous power and good athleticism as a potential corner OF in the future

[nicksaviking]

Another mock from BA - http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/

 

Have the Twins taking Wright and Heliot Ramos at 35.  Ramos is a pretty exciting player from Puerto Rico, a place the Twins have obviously not been afraid of drafting from. If he's available at 35/37, he seems like a good bet to get drafted.

Ramos is an exciting prospect, however they have Beck falling to 26. If he fell that far I'd like to think the Twins could try to leverage their bonus pool to help him intentionally fall a few more spots to them.

[gunnarthor]

 

Ramos is an exciting prospect. However they have Beck falling to 26, if he fell that far I'd like to think the Twins could try to leverage their bonus pool to help him intentionally fall a few more spots to them.

Yeah, I agree. The exciting thing about this drafts is that, with all this young talent, people are going to slide you had no idea would get to the mid 30s. Last year I wanted the Twins to nab Dakota Hudson, a consensus top 15 prospect but he slipped to the Cards at 34.

[Willihammer]

 

Ramos is an exciting prospect. However they have Beck falling to 26, if he fell that far I'd like to think the Twins could try to leverage their bonus pool to help him intentionally fall a few more spots to them.

What if they draft Greene 1-1 though.

[old nurse]

 

What if they draft Greene 1-1 though.

I do believe they can talk to the picks beforehand to  gauge  interest.. It would be a huge gamble for Greene to refuse a signing bonus even a million under slot and think he will do better in 3 years

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW continuing to project the Twins taking Wright, in his latest post on ESPN.

[gunnarthor]

 

KLAW continuing to project the Twins taking Wright, in his latest post on ESPN.

Does he go to 35?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Does he go to 35?

 

Nope, anyone you want to know if he went in round 1? he basically says in a tweet that there are lot of guys being "promised" they'll go in round 1 by teams, that won't....

[Mike Sixel]

Long writeup on McKay here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/

 

[Mike Sixel]

TONS of draft thoughts in Eric L's chat on FG today. Here's one excerpt:

 

HS Arms
1:05 Is Greene that much more polished than a Gore? Seems like Gore's secondary offerings are much better from reports.

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:07 I agree but a lot of scouts (and I fall into this category too, save for maybe a few guys like Stroman and Mike Leake) have never seen an athlete like Greene on the mound and he arguably has elite fastball and command projection because he repeats so well. He just doesn't have a great breaking ball yet. Gore's changeup is already awesome.

[markos]

 

Nope, anyone you want to know if he went in round 1? he basically says in a tweet that there are lot of guys being "promised" they'll go in round 1 by teams, that won't....

Along those lines, two omitted names that I found interesting: Sam Carlson and Alex Lange.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Along those lines, two omitted names that I found interesting: Sam Carlson and Alex Lange.

 

I asked him about Carlson in a chat, I think the response is in this thread. He likes him a lot, but is not hearing about teams being tied to him, IIRC.

[nicksaviking]

 

Long writeup on McKay here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/

 

"McKay’s changeup also looked promising, flashing bat-missing movement at times while coasting in at a firm 84-86 mph."

 

His change up is only a few MPH less than his fastball? That in no way sounds promising, it sounds like a typo.

[Mike Sixel]

 

"McKay’s changeup also looked promising, flashing bat-missing movement at times while coasting in at a firm 84-86 mph."

 

His change up is only a few MPH less than his fastball? That in no way sounds promising, it sounds like a typo.

 

I had the same thought. I might reach out on Twitter and see, but probably not.

[markos]

 

"McKay’s changeup also looked promising, flashing bat-missing movement at times while coasting in at a firm 84-86 mph."

 

His change up is only a few MPH less than his fastball? That in no way sounds promising, it sounds like a typo.

That small of gap isn't completely unheard of for good changeups. Jon Lester has almost exactly the same split - FB at 90-92 and CH at 84-86. Hector Santiago and Zack Greinke are similar.

[Willihammer]

Movement and deception are more important on a changeup.

 

I still wonder what impact if any the cutter is having on his top FB velo. In any case, the fact McKay's losing velo deeper into games isn't good.

[Willihammer]

Was this posted already?

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/232578752/pipeline-podcast-twins-have-no-1-draft-pick/

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Was this posted already?

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/232578752/pipeline-podcast-twins-have-no-1-draft-pick/

 

this deserves it's own thread, imo. 

[Willihammer]

 

this deserves it's own thread, imo. 

Go for it.

[biggentleben]

 

This was an excerpt from call to the Pen's mock draft where they picked Greene for us: "Twins brass were big on Greene this week and had a number of interesting comments hinting that he is still very strongly in consideration for the #1 pick. Previous weeks had indicated the team was moving toward college picks McKay or Wright."

Does anyone have any idea what they are referring to? Most mocks are shying away from Greene but this intrigues me, might have to do with McKay slipping some

 

That's mine. Basically, the same week there are reports the team is moving away from Greene, they have significant people setting up meetings with him that end up with him coming to Minneapolis. A bit of misdirection on the Twins' part, if you ask me.

[biggentleben]

 

"McKay’s changeup also looked promising, flashing bat-missing movement at times while coasting in at a firm 84-86 mph."

 

His change up is only a few MPH less than his fastball? That in no way sounds promising, it sounds like a typo.

 

The "master" of the change up around baseball currently, Brian Bannister, has spoken many times about the movement being more important than the velocity or even the velocity gap of the change. I did find one Fangraphs interview on it: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brian-bannister-on-changeups/

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's mine. Basically, the same week there are reports the team is moving away from Greene, they have significant people setting up meetings with him that end up with him coming to Minneapolis. A bit of misdirection on the Twins' part, if you ask me.

Why?  It's not like they can trade down with the Padres and still get their guy plus some picks...

[dgwills]

 

Why?  It's not like they can trade down with the Padres and still get their guy plus some picks...

I'd assume it's because they still have to negotiate with whoever they pick. Not as important as previous years, but it would still be nice to save some money for the later picks.

[Willihammer]

Came across this article on the importance of age in projecting performance. Its a few year old but damn interesting.
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295
 

 

Let me repeat that: a team that drafted one of the five youngest high school hitters selected among the top 100 picks could expect MORE THAN TWICE AS MUCH VALUE from him as a team that selected one of the five oldest high school hitters. And that’s not a small sample size fluke; that’s a result derived from 32 years of the draft, looking at 160 players from both camps.

...

Young high school hitters are simply much more likely to develop into stars, particularly players who weren’t elite picks. I already mentioned Johnny Bench, who went from the second round to the Hall of Fame. In 1972, Chet Lemon was selected with the #22 overall pick; Lemon was 17 years, 3 months, and went on to a fantastic career.

The following year, amazingly, two of the five youngest high school hitters went on to the Hall of Fame. Maybe it’s not a surprise that Robin Yount did, given that he was the #3 overall pick and was starting at shortstop in the majors the following year—the only 18-year-old to play regularly in the majors in the last 75 years—but it was a surprise that Eddie Murray, drafted as a catcher/first baseman with the #63 overall pick, went on to find the success he had. It shouldn’t have been; Murray was two weeks younger than Lemon had been. Murray and Lemon, in fact, were both among the six youngest players in the entire study.

The youngest player in our study from 1976 was taken with the #96 overall pick.  Rickey Henderson was a month younger than Mike Scioscia, drafted #19 overall that year. In 1980, the #71 overall pick was used on a young high school second baseman named Danny Tartabull. In 1986, the Brewers had the 6th overall pick and didn’t screw it up, using it to select Gary Sheffield. And in 1987, the Mariners selected Ken Griffey Jr 1st overall.

In 1992, Derek Jeter was selected #6, and Jason Kendall, born on the same day, was selected #23. And in the last year of the study, 1996, the youngest player selected in the Top 100 was Jimmy Rollins, who was drafted #46 overall. Meanwhile, the best players in the entire study selected from among the five oldest players in their draft class were Willie Wilson, Johnny Damon, and Richie Hebner.

This is, all modesty aside, quite possibly the most impressive and significant finding of my career. When it comes to the drafting of high school hitters, even slight differences in age matter. At least when it comes to high school hitters, young draft picks are a MASSIVE market inefficiency.