Article: Key Twins Quarter-Mark Questions

[Dr. Evil]

 

My two main thoughts...

 

1) Rosario seems to be the main asset that we can trade for a decent pitcher

2) Duffey should/will get a chance in the rotation if a trade is not made

1. no please

2. no please

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'm enjoying the ride too but I can't take it as given that the Twins are on an upward trajectory and will automatically  be better in 2018 and beyond just because the core is young. Knuckle pushups, toy drones, intoxicated boating trips, etc (ok those are extreme examples). But there's no sure things in sports so when you find yourself in first place at this juncture then almost always you should be thinking along the lines of carpe diem IMO.

 

I think a lot of posters are going too far the other way, and advocating for short-term considerations that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy - trade away assets, for instance, that would have made the 2018 team and/or 2019 competitive.

 

But in any case, the starting point isn't the standings 1/4 of the way through the season - it's a reasoned analysis of the team's ability to win for the remaining 3/4 of the season. Those aren't the same thing. 

[Thrylos]

 

Derek Wetmore raises similar questions in his recent post, http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/key-twins-quarter-mark-questions-r5627

 

Notably,"3. Get more offense out of the catchers."

 

Last night, Mitch Garver was 3-4 with a homer and a double. I'd like to see him play every day in Rochester, but while Ehire Adrianza sits on the bench behind Eduardo Escobar, I wonder if a call-up/swap with Adrianza isn't a move worth making later, or sooner.

 

Sub "Adrianza" with Gimenez, and he got it about right.  Nice clubhouse guy and all...

 

Twins' ERA

with Castro catching: 3.38 (1118 PA)

with Gimenez catching: 5.98 (5.14 PA)

 

Berrios' hiccups yesterday with Gimenez is another indication of the problem here.    Plus SSS or not, Adrianza has a .952 OPS, Gimenez' is .604 (and .638 vs LHPs)... 

 

BTW, Garver is hitting .313/.389/.625 vs LHPs in Rochester

 

#FreeMitchGarver

 

[Willihammer]

The answer is staring us in the face- Garver up, Gimenez and his 0.00 ERA to the pen.

[Willihammer]

 

 

But in any case, the starting point isn't the standings 1/4 of the way through the season - it's a reasoned analysis of the team's ability to win for the remaining 3/4 of the season. Those aren't the same thing. 

What do you mean the starting point isn't 1/4 way through the season?

[drivlikejehu]

 

What do you mean the starting point isn't 1/4 way through the season?

 

Analytically, to determine next steps.

[Willihammer]

 

Analytically, to determine next steps.

I understand that much. My question is about your baseline. 1/4 way through the season the Twins are 7 games over .500. Are you suggesting that shouldn't factor into their decisionmaking?

[Mr. Brooks]

My two main thoughts...

 

1) Rosario seems to be the main asset that we can trade for a decent pitcher

2) Duffey should/will get a chance in the rotation if a trade is not made

I don't think Rosario would fetch much in a trade. He might get you a Tommy Milone type (AAAA/fringe mlb) pitcher at best.

[yarnivek1972]

I honestly don't think the bullpen is a question mark at all. Currently they are 18th in baseball in ERA and have a 4.18 ERA. Pretty mediocre, but look beneath the numbers.

 

The Twins had 2 travesty games. If you take those 2 games away, the bullpen has a 2.95 ERA good enough for 4th best in baseball.

 

Taking those same 2 games away, Matt Belisle has a 1.25 ERA in 16 games instead of a 7.80 ERA. Taylor Rogers has a 1.22 ERA in 20 games instead of a 3.52 ERA. Even Haley would have a 4.2 ERA instead of 6.60.

 

That really gives them 5 very solid guys in Kintzler, Duffey, Breslow, Belisle and Rogers.

 

Really, Pressley is the only hole in the bullpen and even he has looked good the past few games. Adam Wilk as well I guess, but they probably need him for mop-up duty with such a thin rotation.

You can manipulate Belisle's numbers any way you want. It won't change his unacceptably high walk rate. No pitcher will do well walking 11 batters in 15 IP.

[by jiminy]

One puzzling thing about last off-season was that in a market flooded with good relievers the Twins stood pat. 

 

I interpreted this to mean that, one, they didn't expect to contend this year, and two, they had a lot of confidence in the relievers in the low minors. Both of which made sense. I mean, I think the budget and future roster could have accommodated one good reliever! But it wasn't crazy to wait on the young guys.

 

Given the early success, that logic changes. If their current record isn't a mirage, the question for 2017 becomes, is there anyone in the minors who can contribute? And if not now, soon -- like in a few months? Because if they're in this, they need help. And they may have it.

 

The list of genuine prospects in the minor leagues is impressive: Chargois, Burdi, Melotakis, Jay, Hildenberger, and more. Is it unrealistic to think that two of those might be ready to contribute to a winning team? And soon enough to save them a costly trade? That will be a fascinating story to watch unfold.

[Guest]

I wonder if Derek Falvey spends a bunch of his free time looking at video of undervalued pitchers to see if there are any he could trade Rosario for that he thinks he could improve with some tweaks.

 

Then you move Dozier to left field and play Escobar/Adrianza at second base, unless you think Granite is ready to hit. The moves would improve pitching and defense.

[yarnivek1972]

I wonder if Derek Falvey spends a bunch of his free time looking at video of undervalued pitchers to see if there are any he could trade Rosario for that he thinks he could improve with some tweaks.Then you move Dozier to left field and play Escobar/Adrianza at second base, unless you think Granite is ready to hit. The moves would improve pitching and defense.

How does moving Dozier to left field (a position he has NEVER played as a professional) IMPROVE the defense. The Twins pitching staff has mainly guys that are fly ball pitchers. Kintzler and now Gibson would really be the only guys who tend torack up ground balls. There is no way you would move a veteran like Dozier to a new position midseason.

[wabene]

1. no please

2. no please

I'm with you here. I would not mess with the outfield right now. Of course continue to build with a long view in mind but I don't see that upgrade from Rosario right now. He can still progress and not be such a bad option for your 3rd best outfielder

Duffy looks good where he is. He could end up being a high level reliever. He will not be a top of the rotation starter. I seems to me it's been proven you can make a reliever from a starter not the other way around.

[Old Twins Cap]

The problem with Belisle is that the umpires are making him throw strikes, and when that happens, he gets hit hard.  :}

 

If Twins are going to take their lumps, and they will as the season rolls on, the question becomes who do you want to get hit hard? 

 

Some grizzled veteran with a rubber arm or one of your young guns who doesn't know any better?

[clone52]

 

You can manipulate Belisle's numbers any way you want. It won't change his unacceptably high walk rate. No pitcher will do well walking 11 batters in 15 IP.

 

Yeah, I looked extremely stupid in this thread.