If then.....a trade for pitching question.

[Dantes929]

 

As bad as the rotation is, I'd think about selling, not buying. Santana is the only starter on this team I'd be comfortable with starting a playoff game.  Santiago as a game 4 starter I could potentially live with, but not like it.  They need at least two starters and do not have the prospect capital to get them.  It would make more sense to shed guys like Santiago, Santana, and Dozier and then make a big splash this offseason on some of the FA pitchers available.  Only way I see that changes is if something clicks with Hughes, Gibson, Berrios, and/or Mejia, because Santana/Santiago and pray for rain won't cut it.  The offense looks good, but it isn't good enough to overcome that.

I would be comfortable starting Santana, Santiago or Hughes.   If we make the playoffs it probably means that Berrios has been good so add him to the list.     The fact is that if the Twins or any team makes the playoffs then whoever we put out there has been good enough for the team to make the playoffs and thus is capable of doing well in the playoffs.    Might not be favored but if the Twins make the playoffs I am comfortable with any of them out there because it will mean the Twins are in the playoffs.   Twins were not favored in most of their games in 87 and were favored in all of their games in 2006..   Odds are just that.  They are not results.

[Taildragger8791]

 

You have to start somewhere. Why not this season?

 

The pitching is no good, and they'll have some ugly games when the bullpen gets smoked, but the lineup is good enough to remain respectable all year. And it might even get better as the year goes along.

 

I think we have the makings to put together a competitive lineup for sure. But you can't regularly out-hit the kind of damage that our pitchers can do. We showed that last year when we lost over 100 games despite an average-ish offense.

 

If Berrios and Mejia both establish themselves by midseason and Santiago doesn't turn into a pumpkin, and Hughes holds on to be marginally effective, and Duffey comes back to the rotation and holds his own, and the bullpen turns over throughout the year with young guys sticking, then maybe you can think about this being the start of something real. But that is a whole lot of "ifs" to get to that point.

[drjim]

 

I think we have the makings to put together a competitive lineup for sure. But you can't regularly out-hit the kind of damage that our pitchers can do. We showed that last year when we lost over 100 games despite an average-ish offense.

 

If Berrios and Mejia both establish themselves by midseason and Santiago doesn't turn into a pumpkin, and Hughes holds on to be marginally effective, and Duffey comes back to the rotation and holds his own, and the bullpen turns over throughout the year with young guys sticking, then maybe you can think about this being the start of something real. But that is a whole lot of "ifs" to get to that point.

 

I'm not expecting greatness this year. But realistically the best trade candidates are Santiago and Kintzler. Neither of those guys are going to net the Twins all that much at the deadline. If the team is hovering around .500, I'm not sure it is worth it to move them when a strong finish to the season could be more valuable to the franchise long term.

 

Of course, if they really start to falter, Dozier and Santana could be on the table too, then it would potentially be worth it to gut the whole thing as much as possible.

[Winston Smith]

 

The Twins and Yankees are in quite different positions. The Yankees have had 20something years straight above .500 but had grown stale. Another year of close competition without a deep playoff run would do nothing for them. Made sense to turn over an aging roster.

 

The Twins have been brutal for 7 years, selling off when they are borderline competitive for bit pieces would not be received well. If they drop off significantly that's a different story.

..."for bit pieces"? I don't understand are you suggesting that they would do the old make a trade for the sake of making a trade? The correct way to build a team is make trades that will make the team better over the  long run.

 

If the team is a serious contender in late July you look at things as maybe buying. If they are just hanging around .500 it is likely time to make a trade or two that will help in the future.

[drjim]

 

..."for bit pieces"? I don't understand are you suggesting that they would do the old make a trade for the sake of making a trade? The correct way to build a team is make trades that will make the team better over the  long run.

 

If the team is a serious contender in late July you look at things as maybe buying. If they are just hanging around .500 it is likely time to make a trade or two that will help in the future.

 

I'm suggesting that Santiago and Kintzler, the two pending free agents with any trade value, won't bring back much. It would be something, but more a depth guy than any sort of impact guy.

 

I'm wondering if that return is worth more to the franchise than keeping the two of them and finishing the season strong, especially if they are fringe contenders at the deadline.

 

If the Twins fall off significantly (which is certainly possible), then they should trade everything that makes sense. But I would be more hesitant if they are playing decent ball.

[nicksaviking]

 

Fans support winners and you propose taking a team that is a few games out of the WC and turning it into a loser? No, that isn't a smart move unless you have several players that are leaving in FA and you can cash in by trading those players. Trading Santiago for a mediocre prospect isn't cashing in.

 

I might be alone, and it might sound crazy to say, but I think another first round playoff exit will probably have me in a more bitter mood come next November than another losing season. There's no way I'm going to be able to handle another "Aw shucks, we're just happy to be here" playoff showing. The last era of good, but clearly not good enough but we're still standing pat, was just so infuriating.

 

So when this team is ready to win, they damn sure better be ready to win it all. And this pitching staff doesn't look anything like a team ready to win it all.

[drjim]

 

I might be alone, and it might sound crazy to say, but I think another first round playoff exit will probably have me in a more bitter mood come next November than another losing season. There's no way I'm going to be able to handle another "Aw shucks, we're just happy to be here" playoff showing. The last era of good, but clearly not good enough but we're still standing pat, was just so infuriating.

 

So when this team is ready to win, they damn sure better be ready to win it all. And this pitching staff doesn't look anything like a team ready to win it all.

 

You might not be alone, but you are crazy. A first round exit is much preferable to the atrocity we've watched the last 6 years.

 

However, 4-5 first round exits in a row...

[nicksaviking]

 

You might not be alone, but you are crazy. A first round exit is much preferable to the atrocity we've watched the last 6 years.

 

However, 4-5 first round exits in a row...

 

I get it, but personally I couldn't tell a distinguishable difference in my confidence in the team after the repeated sweeps in the playoffs by the Yankees and the repeated 90 loss seasons. I felt equally lousy in both situations.

 

I'm always going to have a hard time reconciling trying to push a team to the playoffs that clearly has no shot at winning, with not trading off pieces that could actually fetch a return that will push you towards contention next year.

 

Or you could be big buyers at the trade deadline. I think this team would need to buy two front line starters and two back of the rotation arms to be legit though and that doesn't look feasible.

 

I'd rather win it all once and be surrounded by losing seasons than never have losing seasons but never win it all.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I get it, but I'm always going to have a hard time reconciling trying to push a team to the playoffs that clearly has no shot at winning, with not trading off pieces that could actually fetch a return that will push you towards contention next year.

 

Or you could be big buyers at the trade deadline. I think this team would need to buy two front line starters and two back of the rotation arms to be legit though and that doesn't look feasible.

 

I'd rather win it all once and be surrounded by losing seasons than never have losing seasons but never win it all.

 

they don't have the prospects to buy 2 legit starters. Jay and Stewart not working out as starters (or at all?), and their last first rounder missing the entire year are big time buzzkills.

[yarnivek1972]

As bad as the rotation is, I'd think about selling, not buying. Santana is the only starter on this team I'd be comfortable with starting a playoff game. Santiago as a game 4 starter I could potentially live with, but not like it. They need at least two starters and do not have the prospect capital to get them. It would make more sense to shed guys like Santiago, Santana, and Dozier and then make a big splash this offseason on some of the FA pitchers available. Only way I see that changes is if something clicks with Hughes, Gibson, Berrios, and/or Mejia, because Santana/Santiago and pray for rain won't cut it. The offense looks good, but it isn't good enough to overcome that.

 

I guess I don't understand what is gained by trading away Santana and then signing a free agent starter. Ervin is already signed potentially through 2019. Maybe the Twins would get a haul that would make it worthwhile. But there aren't going to be that many guys available as good as Santana.

 

I also see this as a longer process than one year. IMO the only way they contend is major contributions from their own starting pitcher prospects. Guys like Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves and Romero. If the Twins can't get two of those guys to nail down two of the top three spots in the rotation they will struggle to contend. Even if that does happen eventually, it won't happen next year. I don't see it as a possibility of signing or trading for more than one top flight starter.

 

The other reason I think it will take time is the offense. The core looks pretty good. But there is still quite a bit of development that needs to happen. Kepler, for example, was completely overmatched by Kimbrell yesterday. He's probably at least a couple years away from being an established, consistent middle of the order run producer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess I don't understand what is gained by trading away Santana and then signing a free agent starter. Ervin is already signed potentially through 2019. Maybe the Twins would get a haul that would make it worthwhile. But there aren't going to be that many guys available as good as Santana.

I also see this as a longer process than one year. IMO the only way they contend is major contributions from their own starting pitcher prospects. Guys like Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves and Romero. If the Twins can't get two of those guys to nail down two of the top three spots in the rotation they will struggle to contend. Even if that does happen eventually, it won't happen next year. I don't see it as a possibility of signing or trading for more than one top flight starter.

The other reason I think it will take time is the offense. The core looks pretty good. But there is still quite a bit of development that needs to happen. Kepler, for example, was completely overmatched by Kimbrell yesterday. He's probably at least a couple years away from being an established, consistent middle of the order run producer.

 

If it is a longer process than 1 year, then trading Santana makes even more sense, not less. They need prospects. Lots of prospects. Santana is nearing the end of his career. Keeping him won't help in 2019 and beyond. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I guess I don't understand what is gained by trading away Santana and then signing a free agent starter. Ervin is already signed potentially through 2019. Maybe the Twins would get a haul that would make it worthwhile. But there aren't going to be that many guys available as good as Santana.
 

 

This front office is in a pickle. This makes sense, but at the same time this team isn't brining home a World Series trophy if Ervin Santana is their best pitcher. They are in an awful situation currently, they know they can't win it all, but they know they might be able to win enough to appease a large amount of the fan base. But hanging on to guys like Dozier and Santana, not to mention winning enough to lower their future draft pools makes it all the more difficult to acquire the players they DO need to win it all later.

 

The brain trust was highly touted and highly paid. Hopefully they can think of means of improvement that we rubes cannot.

[yarnivek1972]

If it is a longer process than 1 year, then trading Santana makes even more sense, not less. They need prospects. Lots of prospects. Santana is nearing the end of his career. Keeping him won't help in 2019 and beyond.

Yes, but signing a FA starter this offseason would not.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, but signing a FA starter this offseason would not.

 

why not? If it is a 5 year deal? why not?

[Oldgoat_MN]

One of the reasons I find it so frustrating that Berrios has been persona non grata in the Twins dugout is that I don't see him improving in AAA.

The other is that we need a lot of games to see if he and/or Mejia can be effective in MLB. If both are then we need to sign a high end FA in the off-season and, POOF, we have a competitive team for 2018.

 

I realize that it would be braking with Twins luck/tradition to have both show up as real MLB assets, but with our offense and defensive it's really that simple.

[nater79a]

 

Add Rick Reed, Orlando Cabrera, ... any others?

 

Didn't the Twins get Todd Jones from Detroit in exchange for Mark Redman the same year as Reed? 2001, I think. Matt Lawton went to the Mets for Reed, I believe.

 

If anyone is old enough to remember 1984.... Twins picked up Pat Putnam from the M's and Chris Speier from the Giants. Neither really helped a lick. Speier was a head case.

[Mike Sixel]

 

One of the reasons I find it so frustrating that Berrios has been persona non grata in the Twins dugout is that I don't see him improving in AAA.

The other is that we need a lot of games to see if he and/or Mejia can be effective in MLB. If both are then we need to sign a high end FA in the off-season and, POOF, we have a competitive team for 2018.

 

I realize that it would be braking with Twins luck/tradition to have both show up as real MLB assets, but with our offense and defensive it's really that simple.

 

This.

 

If this is truly an evaluation year, start evaluating.

 

And, if you tell me they are doing that with him, Mejia, Melostakis, and Burdi in the minors, I assume you are arguing that the coaches and scouts are doing that (those being the same coaches and scouts that have produced so many awesome pitchers the last five years or so). 

[yarnivek1972]

why not? If it is a 5 year deal? why not?

I guess it depends on who it is, how old he is and how his career arc projects. There are a lot of guys signed to 5 year contracts that are good for 2 or 3 and then not good for the remainder. That might paint yourself into a one year window of opportunity while the core is still under control and the ace you sign is still an ace.

[kab21]

 

yes, Yes I suggest that.

 

This team is not good. It is not close to having legit pitching (I mean, Berrios isn't good enough to be here). 

 

yes, I suggest trading players and getting a better future. Just like the Yankees did last year.

Perpetual rebuilding. Great idea. Especially since Sano's years of guaranteed Twins control are ticking. 

I don't have any problem trading someone like Dozier where there is depth to replace him but the idea at making a thin rotation even worse for the sake of middling prospect (in Santiago's case) makes zero sense. I could be swayed if the Twins got a haul for Santana but hesitate to trade away the only good SP that the Twins have under control for next season (and an option for the following).

And I disagree that they can just trade away Santana and Santiago and then go out and sign new SP'ers in FA. If it was that easy the Twins would have a solid rotation. In fact I propose the opposite. Keep Santana - extend Santiago (in July at what people say is possible - 2/20ish) - SIGN a big FA starter like Darvish or Cueto (ridiculous money) - Berrios excels instead of flounders

 

That is the (risky) path to building a contender in 2018 or 2019. Otherwise this team might as well completely tear it down and build for 2020 and beyond. Forget that.

[yarnivek1972]

Perpetual rebuilding. Great idea. Especially since Sano's years of guaranteed Twins control are ticking.

 

I don't have any problem trading someone like Dozier where there is depth to replace him but the idea at making a thin rotation even worse for the sake of middling prospect (in Santiago's case) makes zero sense. I could be swayed if the Twins got a haul for Santana but hesitate to trade away the only good SP that the Twins have under control for next season (and an option for the following).

 

And I disagree that they can just trade away Santana and Santiago and then go out and sign new SP'ers in FA. If it was that easy the Twins would have a solid rotation. In fact I propose the opposite. Keep Santana - extend Santiago (in July at what people say is possible - 2/20ish) - SIGN a big FA starter like Darvish or Cueto (ridiculous money) - Berrios excels instead of flounders

 

That is the (risky) path to building a contender in 2018 or 2019. Otherwise this team might as well completely tear it down and build for 2020 and beyond. Forget that.

I think it's very early to discuss extending Santiago. He's had 3 pretty good starts and 3 pretty mediocre ones. I have no problem extending him. Just make sure you know what you are getting and compensate accordingly. Santiago is a 5-6 IP pitcher with an ERA right around 4. Expecting any better would be setting oneself up for disappointment.

[kab21]

 

I think it's very early to discuss extending Santiago. He's had 3 pretty good starts and 3 pretty mediocre ones. I have no problem extending him. Just make sure you know what you are getting and compensate accordingly. Santiago is a 5-6 IP pitcher with an ERA right around 4. Expecting any better would be setting oneself up for disappointment.

2/20ish is compensating accordingly imo. He fairly got 8M in arb last year. I expect him to be exactly what you described so I am not sure how I would set myself up for disappointment (unless he goes Kyle Gibson on us).

[drjim]

2/20ish is compensating accordingly imo. He fairly got 8M in arb last year. I expect him to be exactly what you described so I am not sure how I would set myself up for disappointment (unless he goes Kyle Gibson on us).

I'm very lukewarm on a Santiago extension, but 2/20 would make me reconsider. I really wonder if that is enough.

[kab21]

 

I'm very lukewarm on a Santiago extension, but 2/20 would make me reconsider. I really wonder if that is enough.

I am really lukewarm for more guaranteed years or significantly more per year.

At the same time I am terrified of the Twins 2018 rotation and I think people are a little too optimistic that the Twins can easily go out and sign a comparable pitcher or two. 

[Mike Sixel]

How long do people think ESan is going to be good? Extend him? Really?

[drjim]

 

I am really lukewarm for more guaranteed years or significantly more per year.

At the same time I am terrified of the Twins 2018 rotation and I think people are a little too optimistic that the Twins can easily go out and sign a comparable pitcher or two. 

 

I certainly share your concern about the rotation. I don't have a good sense of what Santiago would get as a free agent. It might be a decent enough free agent class that he won't get crazy money. 2/20 might be close.

[DaveW]

 

2/20ish is compensating accordingly imo. He fairly got 8M in arb last year. I expect him to be exactly what you described so I am not sure how I would set myself up for disappointment (unless he goes Kyle Gibson on us).

Yup, it would be a very smart move IMO.

Also it isn't enough money where if things did go pear shaped they couldn't find a way to move on.

If the Twins had 5 Santiagos right now in the rotation I think they could compete for a wild card spot no doubt.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think it's very early to discuss extending Santiago. He's had 3 pretty good starts and 3 pretty mediocre ones. I have no problem extending him. Just make sure you know what you are getting and compensate accordingly. Santiago is a 5-6 IP pitcher with an ERA right around 4. Expecting any better would be setting oneself up for disappointment.

Yes. He's likely a 5, maybe a 4, on a decent team.

 

Which is fine. All teams need those guys, especially the Twins. But we shouldn't go in expecting him to be a solid 3 or better going forward. His track record doesn't support paying him that kind of money.

 

And even if Santiago is good this season, I'd hesitate to pay him for his 2017 performance, as he'd be likely to regress.

[DaveW]

Yes. He's likely a 5, maybe a 4, on a decent team.

 

Which is fine. All teams need those guys, especially the Twins. But we shouldn't go in expecting him to be a solid 3 or better going forward. His track record doesn't support paying him that kind of money.

 

And even if Santiago is good this season, I'd hesitate to pay him for his 2017 performance, as he'd be likely to regress.

Guys who can give you 180 IP and #4/#5 performance are worth 2/20 imo.

 

Especially when you have a team like the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Guys who can give you 180 IP and #4/#5 performance are worth 2/20 imo.

Especially when you have a team like the Twins.

Yeah, that'd be roughly the going price for a guy like Santiago.

[DaveW]

We can poo poo on Santiago and his limited upside, but I would much rather sign him as a 5th starter than the guy we are facing tonight.