Berrios staying in the minors?

[DaveW]

This joke doesn't even make sense now that TR is gone. Wouldn't that be the old plan?

/Checks Kyle Gibson's line

 

Old plan sure looks like the new plan!

[PseudoSABR]

 

Judging young rookies (especially pitchers) in their first cup of coffee is beyond short sighted and dumb.

Even more confusing is why an org will stick with CF who are clearly not ready (for 2+ seasons) and go out of their way to trade talented or at the very least decent (Revere) CF already on the roster (span, revere, hicks)

Yet when it comes to a rotation, the minute a youngster struggles, its back to the minors with you!

While giving too many starts to the Blackburns, Hernandez's, Pelfreys, Gibson's, Nolasccos of the world.

Does. Not. Compute.

Also the Twins clearly don't know how to manage pitching prospects anyways, name me the last Twin player they drafted and turned into a legit SP capable of being more than a #4/#5 for a couple years (that disqualifies gibson and Blackburn fwiw)

Blackburn? Pelfrey? Nolasco? 

 

No one's judging Berrios by the results of his more-than-cup-of-coffee ML debut last year; pretending they don't exist is the problem.  Again, what do you actually know about what has changed in regard to Berrios' likelihood of ML success?  Nothing.  You're just spit balling.  

 

That you bring up Blackburn and Pelfrey shows your unwillingness to separate the new regime from the old.  Terry Ryan's ghost must haunt you.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Perhaps, but I'll ask the same question - how long do you have him keep throwing against inferior hitters?  

 

Doesn't, at some point, his success there hinder his ability to progress when he is so dominant?

More than one month.   But I agree, at certain point (I'm not arrogant enough to say I know when), you'll want to expose Berrios to ML hitters.   I'm hoping that his poor ML results last year are motivating him to work beyond the success sustained in AAA box scores.   

[Taildragger8791]

 

"Don't tip your pitches" doesn't strike me as the same thing "throw your fastball to the right place".  

 

Again, if indeed he has things to work on, just how long do you keep him in AAA?  Indefinitely until he does it?

 

Coaches and teams aren't going to tell us everything, or be 100% open and honest, so you just have to accept that. Yes, command of his pitches is one issue, but pitch tipping exacerbated that because anything he threw in the zone was going to get crushed when major league hitters have already eliminated the offspeed stuff. At that point all they're looking for is one speed and type of pitch and just have to read location. That is a cakewalk to those guys.

 

No, it's not indefinitely. He's still young for a pitching prospect. It isn't unreasonable to send a guy up and down while he works on things. Every team does it. That's part of the development process. And pitchers have a disproportionate impact on the team so it's much more important that they be able to achieve an acceptable baseline of performance before you let them struggle it out in the big leagues. If he's cemented in the big leagues by the end of the year is anybody going to remember that he spent an extra few months figuring it out in AAA to start his career?

[TheLeviathan]

 

More than one month.   But I agree, at certain point (I'm not arrogant enough to say I know when), you'll want to expose Berrios to ML hitters.   I'm hoping that his poor ML results last year are motivating him to work beyond the success sustained in AAA box scores.   

 

And I think the question on the table is, how possible is it to "work past that success".  At some point, the game is just so different, you're not even able to work on the skills needed for the next level because the one you're at doesn't present you the opportunity.

[PseudoSABR]

 

/Checks Kyle Gibson's line

Old plan sure looks like the new plan!

Damn you're thorough!  So who is your fifth starter? Berrios starting in both the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation? #geniusGM

[Taildragger8791]

Many people said before the season that the key for Berrios to get back to the majors wasn't going to be easily discerned from the box scores. It's not about dominating again or "proving" anything by getting results on the scoreboard. He dominated before and he'll continue to dominate (hopefully). It's about his mechanics and how he executes pitches. Nobody should be surprised that he's putting up great stats, so why bug out that he isn't insta-promoted after every strikeout?

[PseudoSABR]

 

And pitchers have a disproportionate impact on the team so it's much more important that they be able to achieve an acceptable baseline of performance before you let them struggle it out in the big leagues. 

Very well said. 

 

The situation may be different if the Twins had started the season poorly, but letting Berrios fail at the ML level while the team is winning is far more detrimental than say letting Buxton work through his struggles at the plate (not to mention Buxton's boon in the field).   

 

[TheLeviathan]

I don't see how Berrios is going to be any bigger detriment than Nick Tepesch.

 

I get what you're trying to do Pseudo, but you should feel how shaky the ground is you're treading on.  You're punching blindly for reasons and the ones you can find for solace aren't all that strong.

[DaveW]

 

Damn you're thorough!  So who is your fifth starter? Berrios starting in both the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation? #geniusGM

Well the point of the whole thread is why isn't Berrios in the rotation at all.

But I will give you another answer to satisfy your off topic question:

#4 pitcher: Berrios

#5 pitcher: literally anyone not named Kyle Gibson. Loads to choose from! Duffey, Mejia, Tespech, or another 20 guys on the waiver wire or guys who literally can't be any worse than Gibby. 

[Taildragger8791]

Our impatience with prospects is such a catch-22. If a guy struggles then nobody says a word. They want to see success before a promotion. Yet at the first demonstrated success there are loud calls for promotions and complaints that the player is overqualified and being held back. You can't have it both ways.

 

Personally, I'd be pretty bitter and upset with my employer if they threw me into situations I wasn't properly prepared and trained for only to watch me drown when they could have thrown me a lifesaver. There's a reason we don't hire college grads for critical roles on projects. Sure, you might get lucky once a generation and get a genius powerhouse that can't fail. Most likely though you'll just get an overmatched kid and everybody ends up with egg on their face.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I don't see how Berrios is going to be any bigger detriment than Nick Tepesch.

 

I get what you're trying to do Pseudo, but you should feel how shaky the ground is you're treading on.  You're punching blindly for reasons and the ones you can find for solace aren't all that strong.

What evidence do you have that Berrios deserves a second shot other than repetition and time?  (He destroyed AAA last year too).  Where's your firm ground, where's your solace? (Pointing to how bad the other parts of the rotation are does not support that Berrios stands a better shot of success).  This is the throw-it-against-the-wall-and-see-if-it-sticks-rationale.  

 

And there is evidence that he will be worse than Tepesch.  We seem to put out of our minds last year's line: ERA: 8.02, GS: 14, IP: 58.1, HR: 12, BB: 35, K: 49,  ERA+ 52, FIP: 6.20, WHIP: 1.869.    The innings are only low because of how poorly he performed.  He started 14 games last year.  And performed historically poorly.  

 

Give the guy more than a month to work on what's between AAA success and abysmal ML performance. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Our impatience with prospects is such a catch-22. If a guy struggles then nobody says a word. They want to see success before a promotion. Yet at the first demonstrated success there are loud calls for promotions and complaints that the player is overqualified and being held back. You can't have it both ways.

 

Personally, I'd be pretty bitter and upset with my employer if they threw me into situations I wasn't properly prepared and trained for only to watch me drown when they could have thrown me a lifesaver. There's a reason we don't hire college grads for critical roles on projects. Sure, you might get lucky once a generation and get a genius powerhouse that can't fail. Most likely though you'll just get an overmatched kid and everybody ends up with egg on their face.

 

At some point, I also have to actually do the job.  You can train me until the cows come home, but at some point I have to do it.  And in baseball, that step is very different than your typical job and many, many players with serious talent never make it.

 

I get some deference to the judgment of the new FO, but the kid has been in AAA a long time with a demonstrated history of success.  The team is about to pitch Nick Tepesch instead of him.  

 

You seem to believe an indefinite sentence in AAA is warranted unless he meets....some standard....I guess.  The standard you believe the team is rightly holding him to or whatever it might be.  I preach patience too, but I preach patience in letting the kids adjust to the difficulties of the major league game.  Not patience with making your only high end pitching prospect rack up hundreds of AAA innings.

 

Hell, I'd almost rather our best pitching prospects never pitch in AAA, much less rack up 200 innings there.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Our impatience with prospects is such a catch-22. If a guy struggles then nobody says a word. They want to see success before a promotion. Yet at the first demonstrated success there are loud calls for promotions and complaints that the player is overqualified and being held back. You can't have it both ways.

 

Personally, I'd be pretty bitter and upset with my employer if they threw me into situations I wasn't properly prepared and trained for only to watch me drown when they could have thrown me a lifesaver. There's a reason we don't hire college grads for critical roles on projects. Sure, you might get lucky once a generation and get a genius powerhouse that can't fail. Most likely though you'll just get an overmatched kid and everybody ends up with egg on their face.

ok, but back to Berrios, the coaches are saying they are concerned he doesn't have command.

 

Well what is the best way to gauge his command? Why the heck did the coaches leave Berrios in for 8 innings his last start if he didn't have command or wasn't working on what the coaches asked of him? What is Berrios supposed to do next time out?

[PseudoSABR]

 

Our impatience with prospects is such a catch-22. If a guy struggles then nobody says a word. They want to see success before a promotion. Yet at the first demonstrated success there are loud calls for promotions and complaints that the player is overqualified and being held back. You can't have it both ways.

In the past, I've described the phenomenon as the pitching prospect's paradox.  1) If upon promotion, a pitching prospect succeeds, it means that the team kept him down too long, holding him back. 2) If upon promotion, a pitching prospect fails, it means the team let him fester in AAA too long and/or didn't properly develop him.   The cynics are right no matter the case.   This is the way conversations played out with Gibson and his initial failure, May and his initial failure, and Berrios just last year (not to mention Alex Meyers).   I imagine the attitude was inherited from frustrations over Johan Santana being held out of the rotation when we signed Kenny Rogers that one Spring Training.  

[TheLeviathan]

And there is evidence that he will be worse than Tepesch. We seem to put out of our minds last year's line: ERA: 8.02, GS: 14, IP: 58.1, HR: 12, BB: 35, K: 49, ERA+ 52, FIP: 6.20, WHIP: 1.869. The innings are only low because of how poorly he performed. He started 14 games last year. And performed historically poorly.

Nick Tepesch is such a poor talent his innings have been limied to *drumroll*.....4 in the last three years.

 

C'mon man.

 

Berrios' talent, pitching success at AAA, and upside are why I want him. And because he's not Nick freaking Tepesch.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Hell, I'd almost rather our best pitching prospects never pitch in AAA, much less rack up 200 innings there.

What?  It's not as if he's Alex Meyers, over 25, seeing his third or fourth time in the league.  I think it says more about the former regime's lack of development prior to and within those 200 innings, than it does about hitting some innings threshold at AAA as a matter of rule.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Nick Tepesch is such a poor talent his innings have been limied to *drumroll*.....1 in the last three years.  

 

C'mon man.

 

Berrios' talent, pitching success at AAA, and upside are why I want him.  And because he's not Nick freaking Tepesch.

So we ignore Berrios actual failure at the ML level because Tepesch has had so few opportunities?  Look, I'd rather watch Berrios too, because he has such promise.  But why not situate the guy for the best success?  Why not defer to the people who see him for what he is beyond the boxscore?  I'm sorry but you're arguments for why Berrios deserves a shot have nothing to do with what Berrios has done differently since 2016, and have only to do with how unappealing/unexciting the other options are.  

 

Give me some facts about Berrios that demonstrate improvement from 2016, and I'll concede he deserves a shot.  

 

This whole, well Gibson/Tepesch is horrible argument is a strawman.  There's an unfortunate reality where Gibson, Tepesch and Berrios are all awful in 2016, and this is precisely the reason why you are cautious with the one that shows promise and might have a huge role in the future.  

[FormerMinnasotan]

So when does Berrios get called up? After the All Star break? September? Look if they are too afraid of what is results are going to be then trade Berrios. Because he's young enough to have value in a trade. After how the Twins have treated Berrios from 2015 to now it seems they don't really like him and don't have much hope he'll amount to anything. And yes he should have pitched some in the Bigs in 2015, it would have been good for him.

[Taildragger8791]

 

At some point, I also have to actually do the job.  You can train me until the cows come home, but at some point I have to do it.  And in baseball, that step is very different than your typical job and many, many players with serious talent never make it.

 

I get some deference to the judgment of the new FO, but the kid has been in AAA a long time with a demonstrated history of success.  The team is about to pitch Nick Tepesch instead of him.  

 

You seem to believe an indefinite sentence in AAA is warranted unless he meets....some standard....I guess.  The standard you believe the team is rightly holding him to or whatever it might be.  I preach patience too, but I preach patience in letting the kids adjust to the difficulties of the major league game.  Not patience with making your only high end pitching prospect rack up hundreds of AAA innings.

 

Hell, I'd almost rather our best pitching prospects never pitch in AAA, much less rack up 200 innings there.

 

Berrios had a 14 game tryout in the majors last year, almost half a season's worth of starts, in which he showed no progress or trend towards competence. So they asked him to go back down and work on a couple things and he's had 5 games to do that. I can understand disagreeing philosophically on how many starts before bringing him back up but that sounds awfully reasonable to wait more than a few games before yanking him back up. We complain about yo-yoing guys up and down and it seems like the Twins are trying to avoid that here yet they're getting castigated for it.

[Taildragger8791]

Tepesch is just a warm body with an arm. He isn't up because they think he's the better player or prospect. I wouldn't get worked up about him other than it means the team failed to provide any depth to buffer between their prospects and their starting staff. If they dumped Gibson tomorrow it still wouldn't necessarily mean Berrios will be promoted. It might just mean they find another filler candidate for the rotation that nobody will like either.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Here is a problem with Berrios staying in the minors is that even he'll have an "off" day at some point. It's highly unlikely he'll maintain a sub 2 ERA and a WHIP under 0.80. So when he looks "human" does that push his season debut back further? Is this how we treat every top pitching prospect who struggles? By holding them back until they completely ready? How do you get a culture of the tough bulldog "give me the ball starters" when you seemingly keep the "kid gloves" on until the prospect is deemed "just right"? Sure I'd love Berrios to be perfect but he isn't going to learn anything about the Bigs if a.Stu Clipburn is "developing" him (reports last year were Rochester wasn't remotely on the same page with Minnesota on Berrios' development), and b.he can't be challenged by MLB hitters. I want him perfect too, but how can he realistically learn what he needs to learn if he can't face MLB hitting?

[PseudoSABR]

 

So when does Berrios get called up? After the All Star break? September? Look if they are too afraid of what is results are going to be then trade Berrios. Because he's young enough to have value in a trade. After how the Twins have treated Berrios from 2015 to now it seems they don't really like him and don't have much hope he'll amount to anything. And yes he should have pitched some in the Bigs in 2015, it would have been good for him.

Unfortunately, I think Berrios would need to demonstrate ML success after his awful showing last year in order to fetch something of equitable value.  I think the Twins like him plenty.  He's 22; he's had just 33 innings this year at AAA--he'll be up within 6-8 weeks regardless of what he shows at AAA. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

reports last year were Rochester wasn't remotely on the same page with Minnesota on Berrios' development

Now that you mention it, I remember reading something like that too (in the specific case of Berrios; I know there was a disconnect between the minor leagues generally and the front office--can anyone source such a report?).   If that's the case, isn't there hope that the new regime and the minor league coaches are on the same page, and we should give them more time to execute whatever plan they have? 

[FormerMinnasotan]

Now that you mention it, I remember reading something like that too (in the specific case of Berrios; I know there was a disconnect between the minor leagues generally and the front office--can anyone source such a report?). If that's the case, isn't there hope that the new regime and the minor league coaches are on the same page, and we should give them more time to execute whatever plan they have?

You'd think so but imo that would start by removing Stu Clipburn as the Red Wings pitching coach since he over saw Berrios' development last year. Heck if I recall Clipburn was quoted as saying he "doesn't understand how Berrios can have everything worked out in Rochester and struggle in Minnesota". If he can't see the problems then just maybe he might be a problem, especially if he can't find a way to fix Berrios as the way the Twins want him fixed. That is why I disliked Berrios being sent to Rochester, he is reunited with a pitching coach who may or may not understand how to get Berrios to succeed at the big league level.

[PseudoSABR]

 

You'd think so but imo that would start by removing Stu Clipburn as the Red Wings pitching coach since he over saw Berrios' development last year. Heck if I recall Clipburn was quoted as saying he "doesn't understand how Berrios can have everything worked out in Rochester and struggle in Minnesota". If he can't see the problems then just maybe he might be a problem, especially if he can't find a way to fix Berrios as the way the Twins want him fixed. That is why I disliked Berrios being sent to Rochester, he is reunited with a pitching coach who may or may not understand how to get Berrios to succeed at the big league level.

You may be right, and it could come to firing Clipburn in the offseason.  But Clipburn might be now given far more precise directives, and told to disregard results and focus on the Berrios ability to execute on those specific directives.   I tend to think that the new regime is not as tolerant of the coaching autonomy that took place under TR.   There's no excuse for Clipburn saying he doesn't know why Berrios succeeded at AAA yet not at ML, if Berrios wasn't locating his fastball...  Let's hope for the time being, that someone has informed him why. 

[glunn]

Moderator note - let's keep this discussion factual and lay off the bickering and personal attacks.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Moderator note - let's keep this discussion factual and lay off the bickering and personal attacks.

It's what winning does to this place.  It's all we have. 

[yarnivek1972]

I still think Berrios will "get it" better by being around Ervin Santana than he will by listening to 60 year old Stu Cliburn.

 

Where exactly is the "firm ground" the organization is standing on in this decision? In March, the story was "he needs to be stretched out". That's the company line told through the media and presumably to Berrios himself. Now, all of a sudden, it's command of the fastball. An extremely vague and abstract concept. Made even more puzzling by the fact that the Twins continue to trot Kyle Gibson out to the mound every 5th day despite command of his fastball being his biggest issue. Does it really make sense to anyone that Nick Tepesch is a better choice to face the Red Sox? By the time Saturday roles around, he won't have faced live hitters in 3 weeks. Also, he allowed almost as many baserunners in his 3 starts at AAA (24) as Berrios has in 5 (26).

 

The other issue many of you who are accepting the company line bring up is the fact that the Twins are winning. So there is no rush. "We are contending, we aren't really rebuilding". Do you really believe that? Have you seen the teams the Twins have played? They haven't played the Yankees. Red Sox or Orioles. They haven't played the Astros or Angels. They have only played Cleveland 3 times. I still don't believe the pitching the Twins have will keep them in contention once they start facing these better teams. So, when the Twins are buried in the standings in July, will you all bemoan the time Berrios wasted at AAA that could have been spent working it out against MLB hitters under the guidance of Ervin Santana - who might very well not be around in July?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see how Berrios is going to be any bigger detriment than Nick Tepesch.

 

I get what you're trying to do Pseudo, but you should feel how shaky the ground is you're treading on. You're punching blindly for reasons and the ones you can find for solace aren't all that strong.

I actually think it's kind of the opposite, Levi. Derek Flavey's claim to fame is that he's the guy who built the Cleveland pitching staff, possibly the best internally developed staff in the majors.

 

The guy isn't flailing in the dark here. But we kinda are.