Twins option Mejia to AAA, put Haley on DL

[drjim]

I'll just copy Seth's tweet, but probably has to be Berrios when a #5 starter is needed on Saturday.

 

[jorgenswest]

I hope so. Molitor had me thinking it was going to be Tepesch this morning.

[Otto von Ballpark]

who? Last off season the indication was many of the impending 2018 free agents would be extended, but I lost track of the details

 

Do we have indications of whether they will actually become free agents?

Now that the season has started and these guys are only 5 months away from FA, it would be pretty unlikely that many or even any would sign extensions before hitting the open market.

 

Arrieta, Cueto, Darvish, and Tanaka would be the big ones, although there are a few other names that could be interesting pending 2017 results (Hellickson, Lynn, Pineda, Tillman, etc.):

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

[drjim]

I hope so. Molitor had me thinking it was going to be Tepesch this morning.

That would be uninspiring.

 

I don't really have a problem with having a veteran placeholder until a decision has to be made, but it would seem both Berrios has done enough to get a shot.

[drjim]

Now that the season has started and these guys are only 5 months away from FA, it would be pretty unlikely that many or even any would sign extensions before hitting the open market.

 

Arrieta, Cueto, Darvish, and Tanaka would be the big ones, although there are a few other names that could be interesting pending 2017 results (Hellickson, Lynn, Pineda, Tillman, etc.):

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

One reason the talk of a Santiago extension is so silly. There are going to be some options amd Twins should have some money, with Santiago/Perkins/other small contracts coming off the books, and only 1 more year of Mauer.

[USAFChief]

One reason the talk of a Santiago extension is so silly. There are going to be some options amd Twins should have some money, with Santiago/Perkins/other small contracts coming off the books, and only 1 more year of Mauer.

Why can't they do both?

 

Put together an actual rotation. With some depth.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Posted Today, 10:46 AM

I hope so. Molitor had me thinking it was going to be Tepesch this morning.

 

Really? I'm not normally one for torches and pitchforks, but Tepesch getting the next start over Berrios would have me dialing 1-800-ANGRYMOB for sure

[drjim]

Why can't they do both?

 

Put together an actual rotation. With some depth.

Because they can do significantly better than Santiago.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why can't they do both?

 

Put together an actual rotation. With some depth.

They can do both, but there is very little gained by making that commitment to Santiago now. You would preclude even the possibility of flipping him at the deadline, just to potentially save a few bucks next winter. They could sign both Santiago and a bigger ticket FA next winter if they want to.

[USAFChief]

Because they can do significantly better than Santiago.

So they are going to sign 2 big FA contracts this winter?

[kab21]

 

Because they can do significantly better than Santiago.

They can also do significantly worse. Right now they have 4 spots after Ervin (and he is old) to fill. Hopefully Berrios claims one of those and never looks back. That still leaves 3.

Personally I would only be looking at an extension in the 2/20ish range on Santiago. I don't trust him long term but I trust him far more than virtually any other potential member (in house) of the rotation next year.

 

And if they were able to make a big signing and had too many good arms in the rotation then I think everybody would be thrilled. At least I would and NO signing Santiago doesn't prevent them from making another big signing. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

While I suspect Santiago's market may eventually land in that range, I don't know if he would be eager to sign an extension now for 2/20. And I still don't know why signing it now would be meaningfully beneficial to the Twins.

[drjim]

I'm just not that high on Santiago. I trust him second in the rotation right now, but that could easily change. And it wouldn't take a *big* signing to do better than him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So they are going to sign 2 big FA contracts this winter?

Not necessarily two "bigger" but they could land one big contract, and still have room to lure a promising bounceback guy at favorable terms. Probably harder to do that if a spot is effectively committed to Santiago via extension.

 

Sort of like how the Twins should have been in great position to lure a closer like Holland here over the winter. Had they committed an extension to Kintzler, for example, that may have been a more difficult sell.

 

I don't know how likely it is to play out like that, but I would like to keep options open. If that means I have to pay a few more bucks to re-up Santiago this winter, or even potentially losing Santiago to a crazy big bidding team, I think those are acceptable risks when we are still 5 months out from the open market.

[drjim]

 

Not necessarily two "bigger" but they could land one big contract, and still have room to lure a promising bounceback guy at favorable terms. Probably harder to do that if a spot is effectively committed to Santiago via extension.

Sort of like how the Twins should have been in great position to lure a closer like Holland here over the winter. Had they committed an extension to Kintzler, for example, that may have been a more difficult sell.

I don't know how likely it is to play out like that, but I would like to keep options open. If that means I have to pay a few more bucks to re-up Santiago this winter, or even potentially losing Santiago to a crazy big bidding team, I think those are acceptable risks when we are still 5 months out from the open market.

 

If the Twins keep sitting in the .500 or just below zone, I would think Santiago is a pretty clear trade candidate too.

[USAFChief]

 

If the Twins keep sitting in the .500 or just below zone, I would think Santiago is a pretty clear trade candidate too.

If the Twins are .500 in mid to late July and a fringe contender, and they trade away a starter, I'll be firebombing 1 Twins Way.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If the Twins are .500 in mid to late July and a fringe contender, and they trade away a starter, I'll be firebombing 1 Twins Way.

 

I get it, but with the rotation as it sits, getting more upside may be better 2018-2022.... Just my two cents.  It's contending vs. pretending... I'm not sure where this team sits in that matrix presently.  The good news is that the offense hasn't really gotten going just yet, but starting pitching is already walking a fine line between competent and falling off the edge of the grand canyon. 

 

The other problem with Santiago is that he's that guy that walks a very fine line. If there's a replacement ready at this point, I'd think this is a trade that makes sense. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Why can't they do both?

Put together an actual rotation. With some depth.

They certainly can, but the question is how much faith do you have that the Twins would dig that deep into the pocket books? 

 

Personally I would love to see him flipped at the deadline for an arm that they can control for 4-6 years on a rookie contract. They don't have to hold onto Hector, if they're willing to spend, which they would need to do to sign 2 pitchers, there will be other arms available as FAs this offseason. 

[kab21]

 

I get it, but with the rotation as it sits, getting more upside may be better 2018-2022.... Just my two cents.  It's contending vs. pretending... I'm not sure where this team sits in that matrix presently.  The good news is that the offense hasn't really gotten going just yet, but starting pitching is already walking a fine line between competent and falling off the edge of the grand canyon. 

 

The other problem with Santiago is that he's that guy that walks a very fine line. If there's a replacement ready at this point, I'd think this is a trade that makes sense. 

Let's be realistic as to the type of prospect that we would get back though. Last year the Angels had to take back Nolasco (a thoroughly crappy pitcher and not mediocre) and give up a poor prospect in order to get Alex Meyer. What the Twins get back really isn't significant to making the team better in 2018-2022.

[USAFChief]

They certainly can, but the question is how much faith do you have that the Twins would dig that deep into the pocket books? 

 

Personally I would love to see him flipped at the deadline for an arm that they can control for 4-6 years on a rookie contract. They don't have to hold onto Hector, if they're willing to spend, which they would need to do to sign 2 pitchers, there will be other arms available as FAs this offseason.

 

If they're in contention, keeping Santiago for 2017 does nothing to prevent them from signing two FAs next winter. And in that scenario Santiago is likely worth more to them for the second half of this year than whatever they might get in the future from the return.

 

If they're out of it, fine, trade him.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Let's be realistic as to the type of prospect that we would get back though. Last year the Angels had to take back Nolasco (a thoroughly crappy pitcher and not mediocre) and give up a poor prospect in order to get Alex Meyer. What the Twins get back really isn't significant to making the team better in 2018-2022.

Nolasco did start their opener

[Oldgoat_MN]

E Santana - signed through 2018 with an option for 2019

P Hughes - signed through 2019

Berrios

Mejia

Romero ???

 

Twins are not that deep in SP. I'm not sure signing Santiago is a good idea, but it is if they have no intention of breaking out the checkbook for a FA.

[yarnivek1972]

Now that the season has started and these guys are only 5 months away from FA, it would be pretty unlikely that many or even any would sign extensions before hitting the open market.

 

Arrieta, Cueto, Darvish, and Tanaka would be the big ones, although there are a few other names that could be interesting pending 2017 results (Hellickson, Lynn, Pineda, Tillman, etc.):

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

Players, especially pitchers, signing extensions during their free agent season isn't uncommon at all. The injury risk is always one pitch away. They know that and their agent certainly does. Security is sometimes more important than "hitting the open market".

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Players, especially pitchers, signing extensions during their free agent season isn't uncommon at all. The injury risk is always one pitch away. They know that and their agent certainly does. Security is sometimes more important than "hitting the open market".

I think that's a good point. And as Spycake points out, there are a lot of big name pitchers available in FA after the season. An average pitcher like Santiago is probably looking at sitting around until at least January just to see if he has a job with someone.

Signing an extension might be attractive to him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If the Twins are .500 in mid to late July and a fringe contender, and they trade away a starter, I'll be firebombing 1 Twins Way.

Yeah. As much as I'd like to get a return on Santiago, a team that has been bad five of the past six years can't give away the second half of a promising season.

 

Though I wouldn't do much to improve that team at the deadline, either. As it stands, this *should* be the kind of team that continues to improve as the season progresses (barring injuries, of course). The young guys get more experience, the minors fill holes and replace mediocre vets, etc.

[jorgenswest]

There was debate on this site about extending Kubel in 2014 after a first month of an OPS of around .800. He was gone in June.

 

Can we wait until August before even considering extending Santiago? He is an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park that is friendly to home runs by right handed batters. Of all AL parks his ERA in Minnesota is the highest. Most similar fly ball pitchers get by with high strike out rates. Santiago doesn't match those rates. I sure hope the front office doesn't make decisions based on one month of numbers. A sample too small to have any value in projecting the future. They need to confidently project the next few years.

 

Let's postpone this discussion for another 15 starts.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Players, especially pitchers, signing extensions during their free agent season isn't uncommon at all. The injury risk is always one pitch away. They know that and their agent certainly does. Security is sometimes more important than "hitting the open market".

I don't think there is any evidence to support this assertion (that pitchers signing extensions during their free agent season is not uncommon). Plenty of players certainly do prefer security over hitting the open market as you suggest, but those guys generally sign extensions before their free agent year season gets underway.

 

Strasburg did it last year, Jered Weaver in 2012. Both of those guys got much bigger guarantees than what Santiago is likely to see. It is definitely a tiny number of players compared to the number of players that hit free agency every winter.

[kab21]

 

Nolasco did start their opener

Meaningless. He is still awful.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Let's be realistic as to the type of prospect that we would get back though. Last year the Angels had to take back Nolasco (a thoroughly crappy pitcher and not mediocre) and give up a poor prospect in order to get Alex Meyer. What the Twins get back really isn't significant to making the team better in 2018-2022.

But if Santiago isn't likely to be valuable in trade at the deadline, how exactly is he valuable enough to lock into an extension now? I agree the odds of a meaningful trade return are slim, but probably only equally low as the odds of Santiago's expected contract rising significantly in the next 5 months.

 

And there is probably some overlap in those two scenarios. The slim chance that he increases his expected contract over the next few months, you might also want the option to flip him at the deadline too.

[kab21]

 

But if Santiago isn't likely to be valuable in trade at the deadline, how exactly is he valuable enough to lock into an extension now? I agree the odds of a meaningful trade return are slim, but probably only equally low as the odds of Santiago's expected contract rising significantly in the next 5 months.

And there is probably some overlap in those two scenarios. The slim chance that he increases his expected contract over the next few months, you might also want the option to flip him at the deadline too.

I am not terribly excited about locking him into an extension (2/20ish) right now so that furthers my point.

But I will give you some reasons why he is valuable enough to lock into a contract right now though

 

THE TWINS ROTATION AND PROSPECTS ARE TERRIBLE (Some prospects are decent but far from certain)

 

Without Santiago
A - #3 starter Phil Hughes
B - #4 starter Aderlin Mejia
C - #5 starter Kyle Gibson

 

I have reserved the top 2 spots for Ervin and Berrios but even that is not a slam dunk since Ervin is 34 and Berrios hasn't figured out anything yet. Maybe the price tag doesn't increase much but he is locked in and the Twins can make a plan going forward. Instead of HOLY @#$%#$^#$ we need an entire rotation!