Next Roster Move: Pitcher for Batter, but Whom?

[70charger]

I'm no hero.  (I just want the big league payday.)

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm no hero.  (I just want the big league payday.)

 

I'd settle for healthcare for life. 

[yarnivek1972]

 

Wow, I havent see you in awhile Kevin.  Anyway I think I'd bring up Vargas also, he has had stretches where he looked really good.  I'd like to see the Twins give him an opportunity to get some regular at bats at DH and spelling Mauer over at 1B.  Problem is that Grossman has been hitting really well in the DH spot, but how long will that last?  As far as dropping someone, probably Tonkin.  If Vargas is DHing more often then Grossman can get on the field more in the OF, that in essence would keep Santana off the field except for emergency situations.  Just my thoughts

 

Obviously, Park is available if this scenario doesn't work out.  Park has more long term value.  So in a couple of years from now when Mauer is done.  If Vargas hits well then Park would eventually be 1B and Vargas DH.  That is obviously only if Vargas and Park do well.  We will have to wait and see.

I think it is a foregone conclusion that when Mauer is done, Miguel Sano will slide over to first base.  There really is no one in the pipeline to play third at this time, but that's an issue for another day.  Nick Gordon, maybe.  But if that were a plan, he'd be playing there now.  Not sure he's going to hit enough to be at third.  Polanco, but he too profiles better as a SS or 2b.

[yarnivek1972]

Everybody keeps calling for Tonkin to be cut.  Ryan Pressly has given up 5 extra base hits in his 3 most recent outings covering less than 3 IP.  That has to be concerning.  Both Pressly and Tonkin were overworked, especially in the first half, last year.  I think we are seeing the repercussions.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think I said anything about Spring Training? But even if I did, Vargas regular season numbers haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard either.

How do they compare to Park's regular season numbers?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I certainly don't consider Paulsen (or Palka or anyone else playing OF in AAA) a long term solution.  I consider Rosario a long term problem.  And it isn't just because of the first 2 1/2 weeks of this year.  It's about the 6 months of nothingness last year too.

But see, this is the part of the argument that makes no sense.

 

Objectively speaking, here are the comparisons between Rosario and Paulsen:

 

1. Rosario was the better hitter in the minors. Not by a lot numbers-wise but he was much younger at every level of play.

2. Adjusted for league and park factors, Paulson and Rosario are similar MLB hitters (92 and 95 OPS+).

3. Rosario can play centerfield, Paulsen cannot.

4. Rosario is significantly better as a corner outfielder than Paulsen.

5. Rosario is four years younger than Paulsen.

 

If Paulsen isn't a long-term solution (and he shouldn't be a long- or short-term solution for anyone ever, IMO), what's the point in cutting Rosario? There is absolutely nothing to indicate that Paulsen will perform significantly better than Eddie Rosario and Paulsen's potential ceiling is miles below what Eddie can do if things click.

 

You're arguing to replace a high ceiling, low floor player with a low ceiling, low floor player that is four years older.

 

What kind of gain is to be found here? Unless you'd like to see a new front office in place - because that's the kind of move that gets a front office rightfully canned - I simply cannot see the logic in what you're arguing here.

[Mr. Brooks]

Rosario is trending the wrong way in terms of production. You can show me all the metrics in the world. If it doesn't eventually result in some hits and actual productivity at the plate, what good are they? I certainly don't consider Paulsen (or Palka or anyone else playing OF in AAA) a long term solution. I consider Rosario a long term problem. And it isn't just because of the first 2 1/2 weeks of this year. It's about the 6 months of nothingness last year too. It is worth noting that he has two hits in his last two games. If he keeps that up, great. That's why I'm willing to wait 3-4 more weeks. To get that larger sample size.

Rosario didn't have a great year last season. But it wasn't awful either.

His 2016 numbers as a good defensive 4th outfielder would be an asset.

I'd like to see an upgrade in LF, but Rosario's move should be to the bench as a good 4th outfielder, not cut from the organization.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Rosario didn't have a great year last season. But it wasn't awful either.
His 2016 numbers as a good defensive 4th outfielder would be an asset.
I'd like to see an upgrade in LF, but Rosario's move should be to the bench as a good 4th outfielder, not cut from the organization.

In situations such as these, the question to ask is:

 

Will this player be picked up on waivers?

 

Rosario wouldn't clear a single team on waivers. Not one.

 

That tells you rather matter-of-factly whether it's reasonable to cut a player.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I think it's quite rational. Is Park measurably better than Vargas? Hell, is he measurably better than Palka?

 

And both of those guys are on the 40-man roster.

 

Now, if you want to call the Twins crazy for not having Vargas on the roster, you'll get no argument from me on that.

Vargas's place on the 40 man shouldn't be the reason he jumps Park. The 40 man isn't so crunched that they can't drop some dead weight to add Park. If the Twins actually view him as the better option then by all means make the move (they should have to start the season.) To me its a coin flip between Park and Vargas. Personally I would rather see Park for his defense and I'm enamored with the power but I'm ok with Vargas as well. Honestly they just need one of those two + Palka and soon...

[USAFChief]

 

Vargas's place on the 40 man shouldn't be the reason he jumps Park. The 40 man isn't so crunched that they can't drop some dead weight to add Park. If the Twins actually view him as the better option then by all means make the move (they should have to start the season.) To me its a coin flip between Park and Vargas. Personally I would rather see Park for his defense and I'm enamored with the power but I'm ok with Vargas as well. Honestly they just need one of those two + Palka and soon...

I'd do both Park and Vargas, dump a pitcher and Santana and Grossman is my fourth OFer.

 

One of those two plus Mauer sits every day depending on the pitcher, the other two at 1B/DH.  Grossman in against LHers.   I get the platoon advantage from all three spots, pretty much every day.

 

But then I'd have done that out of spring training.

[yarnivek1972]

Everyone calling for Park understands that he is currently on the DL, right?  He's not expected back for about a week or more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Vargas's place on the 40 man shouldn't be the reason he jumps Park. The 40 man isn't so crunched that they can't drop some dead weight to add Park. If the Twins actually view him as the better option then by all means make the move (they should have to start the season.) To me its a coin flip between Park and Vargas. Personally I would rather see Park for his defense and I'm enamored with the power but I'm ok with Vargas as well. Honestly they just need one of those two + Palka and soon...

But that's not how it works. Teams don't just add to the 40-man willy-nilly. They try to strike a balance, especially in the middle of a season because what happens if two starters go down in the next two weeks? Or three relievers in a month? It's not exactly a simple thing to jettison players off the 40-man on demand, particularly if you've added too many players at a single position and are unwilling to cut any of them at any given moment.

 

Adding a handful of no position, all bat guys to your 40-man is a good way to put yourself in the position to make uncomfortable decisions as you realize you've backed yourself into a corner.

 

So if you can avoid adding Park to the 40-man, you simply do that. If/when someone goes down, is cut, or whatever, then you reconsider.

[yarnivek1972]

 

But that's not how it works. Teams don't just add to the 40-man willy-nilly. They try to strike a balance, especially in the middle of a season because what happens if two starters go down in the next two weeks? Or three relievers in a month? It's not exactly a simple thing to jettison players off the 40-man on demand, particularly if you've added too many players at a single position and are unwilling to cut any of them at any given moment.

 

Adding a handful of no position, all bat guys to your 40-man is a good way to put yourself in the position to make uncomfortable decisions as you realize you've backed yourself into a corner.

 

So if you can avoid adding Park to the 40-man, you simply do that. If/when someone goes down, is cut, or whatever, then you reconsider.

In the very near future, the Twins will be forced to move a player off the 40 man - more than likely 2.  Ehire Adrianza is expected to start a rehab assignment this weekend.  When that time is up, the Twins will either have to activate him to the 25 man roster or DFA him, assuming he doesn't further injure himself.  If they activate him, obviously someone has to come off the 25 man roster.  The only moderately logical position player is Danny Santana, who would also have to be DFA, since he is out of options.  Either way, it's a subtraction from the 40 man roster.

 

At some point, most likely within the next week, the Twins will drop down to 12 pitchers.  The most probable candidates to be removed are Justin Haley and Michael Tonkin since they are sort of in a redundant role as long relievers.  Either way again, it's a removal from the 40 man roster.  Although, the way Pressly has pitched his last couple times, he may be adding himself to that mix.  He could be hurt, though.  It's not unusual to see a guy who was overworked as hard as Pressly was last year (especially in the first half) to have injury problems the following season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm curious to see how the Adrianza thing plays out. I'd be tempted to replace Santana with him but that doesn't really fix any problems, as Santana has been an outfielder, Escobar looks fine as a backup, and Adrianza can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

[yarnivek1972]

I could very easily see both being DFA and JB Shuck taking over as a reserve OFer. Sano and Polanco are doing fine defensively so far. Escobar as the only reserve infielder isn't an issue IMO. Vielma is on the 40 man in case of injury. Adrianza might clear waivers and stick around. Leonardo Reginatto is around if things get desperate.

[kab21]

 

I'm curious to see how the Adrianza thing plays out. I'd be tempted to replace Santana with him but that doesn't really fix any problems, as Santana has been an outfielder, Escobar looks fine as a backup, and Adrianza can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

Carrying two utility infielders has always been a pet peeve of mine. 13 man pitching staff slightly outranks it but not by much.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'd do both Park and Vargas, dump a pitcher and Santana and Grossman is my fourth OFer.

 

One of those two plus Mauer sits every day depending on the pitcher, the other two at 1B/DH.  Grossman in against LHers.   I get the platoon advantage from all three spots, pretty much every day.

 

But then I'd have done that out of spring training.

Idk if I'm ready to bench Mauer for the season. Personally I would rather see the 4th OFer be somebody who can actually catch the ball but to be honest I would even settle for just another bat so no big complaints with that game plan. My head is about ready to explode having to watch any of Santana or Gimenez playing any position other than catcher. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

But that's not how it works. Teams don't just add to the 40-man willy-nilly. They try to strike a balance, especially in the middle of a season because what happens if two starters go down in the next two weeks? Or three relievers in a month? It's not exactly a simple thing to jettison players off the 40-man on demand, particularly if you've added too many players at a single position and are unwilling to cut any of them at any given moment.

 

Adding a handful of no position, all bat guys to your 40-man is a good way to put yourself in the position to make uncomfortable decisions as you realize you've backed yourself into a corner.

 

So if you can avoid adding Park to the 40-man, you simply do that. If/when someone goes down, is cut, or whatever, then you reconsider.

If the Twins had a solid 25 man and guys who had come up through the system that they wanted to protect on the 40 man then that would totally make sense, but that isn't the case. They have guys on both rosters that are beyond expendable. The RP should be fine, they have plenty of those guys. The SP situation is what it is. Apart from Berrios right now they have NOBODY they can bring up. I guess stretch Duffey out if 2 go down? Adding Park doesn't affect either of those situations.

 

They're carrying Santana, Adrianza, and Vielma. Santana can't do anything well; Adrianza and Vielma can pick up the ball but neither can hit it. All three are behind the backup utility IFer Escobar.They can afford to expose one of that trio to waivers.   

 

Park has a position, and he could easily be the weak part of a 1B platoon. I would rather they carry two 1B/DH guys with bats and 2 UT IFers who can't hit as opposed to 3 UT IFers who can't hit. Unless they plan to add some OFer we don't know about to the 40 man I'm going to favor the former scenario. 

 

Hell, I'm not advocating for adding Park "willy-nilly." What I said was that his position off the 40 man shouldn't decide whether he or Vargas comes up. If they like Vargas better than fine, it doesn't bother me I just want to get a bat on the bench. However, if they're only bringing up Vargas due to his status on the 40 man and because they refuse to part with guys like Adrianza, Santana, Boshers, ect.. then yeah, I have an issue with that. 

[USAFChief]

Idk if I'm ready to bench Mauer for the season. Personally I would rather see the 4th OFer be somebody who can actually catch the ball but to be honest I would even settle for just another bat so no big complaints with that game plan. My head is about ready to explode having to watch any of Santana or Gimenez playing any position other than catcher.

 

I worded that poorly.

 

With RH Park, SH Vargas, and LH hitting Mauer, two of those three man 1b/DH most days, with the odd man on the bench. Most days, we have a platoon advantage.

 

Against LH pitching, Grossman mans a corner a OF spot, and you add a platoon advantage there.

 

This offense isn't so good it couldn't benefit from some advantageous deployment. And DanSan provides little of anything except the ability to be a two way detriment at multiple spots instead of just one.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I worded that poorly.

With RH Park, SH Vargas, and LH hitting Mauer, two of those three man 1b/DH most days, with the odd man on the bench. Most days, we have a platoon advantage.

Against LH pitching, Grossman mans a corner a OF spot, and you add a platoon advantage there.

This offense isn't so good it couldn't benefit from some advantageous deployment. And DanSan provides little of anything except the ability to be a two way detriment at multiple spots instead of just one.

Haha gotcha. Yeah that seems a lot less extreme. 

 

I would happy with either Park or Vargas but if Molitor can find the ABs for a three man 1B/DH group I can't say I'm totally opposed to the experiment.

 

The catch with the whole proposal is you're going to have a hard time selling me Grossman as the 4th OFer. I still have nightmares about that epic boot in LF late last season. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

26 is not old for a catcher to debut. Tough position.

thats assuming he debuts this year

[drjim]

 

thats assuming he debuts this year

 

He's on the 40 man. If he keeps this up he will, even if it is September.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Based on the original question...

Tonkin has been placed in the long relief/mop-up role. There have been several times that threads on TD have looked at him historically and shown that he is far better suited to a setup role, pitching 1 inning or less at a time. Molitor is not going to use him that way so let him go. I'm sure he would appreciate it.

 

Eduardo Escobar has reminded everyone why he wears a MLB uniform, showing up healthy and performing like he displayed himself in 2015. I think there is no need to retain Adrainza. If someone gets hurt we have Vielma on the 40 man. We also have Goodrum and Reginatto (that would be a feel good story for this career MiLBer) hitting well in AAA. If Adrianza is put on the 25 man roster I am going to completely lose it regarding this FO.

 

The obvious choice is Vargas. Mauer is hitting poorly so far this year and getting very little rest. Were he to sit games where the opposing starting pitcher was LH it would be good for everybody. It would also give Molitor an option off the bench at times.

 

The fact that they came north with Mauer our only 1B was weak on the part of the people making up the roster. That is the kindest way I can word my opinion of that move.

 

 

[drjim]

 

Based on the original question...

Tonkin has been placed in the long relief/mop-up role. There have been several times that threads on TD have looked at him historically and shown that he is far better suited to a setup role, pitching 1 inning or less at a time. Molitor is not going to use him that way so let him go. I'm sure he would appreciate it.

 

Eduardo Escobar has reminded everyone why he wears a MLB uniform, showing up healthy and performing like he displayed himself in 2015. I think there is no need to retain Adrainza. If someone gets hurt we have Vielma on the 40 man. We also have Goodrum and Reginatto (that would be a feel good story for this career MiLBer) hitting well in AAA. If Adrianza is put on the 25 man roster I am going to completely lose it regarding this FO.

 

The obvious choice is Vargas. Mauer is hitting poorly so far this year and getting very little rest. Were he to sit games where the opposing starting pitcher was LH it would be good for everybody. It would also give Molitor an option off the bench at times.

 

The fact that they came north with Mauer our only 1B was weak on the part of the people making up the roster. That is the kindest way I can word my opinion of that move.

 

I don't think the Twins should give up on Tonkin, but I also don't get why people think the Twins should structure their bullpen to get him only one inning stints and primarily against RHHs. He'd probably be better at it, but I assume that would be the case for most relievers. 

 

He's the 5th RH in the pen right now. That's going to lead to more low leverage, multi-inning appearances. If others falter or get hurt, he'll get his chance, but hasn't exactly done anything to earn it any sooner.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I don't think the Twins should give up on Tonkin, but I also don't get why people think the Twins should structure their bullpen to get him only one inning stints and primarily against RHHs. He'd probably be better at it, but I assume that would be the case for most relievers. 

 

He's the 5th RH in the pen right now. That's going to lead to more low leverage, multi-inning appearances. If others falter or get hurt, he'll get his chance, but hasn't exactly done anything to earn it any sooner.

 

I have not given up on Tonkin. I think he may very well be a fine MLB pitcher. Somewhere else.

In 2012 the Twins traded Danny Valencia to Boston for a guy who is now 26 years old and playing AA ball for Miami. Danny hit poorly for Gardy's Twins. Valencia went on the post an OPS of >.850 two of the next 3 years, with a .792 OPS the year after that.

 

You have to use players in a way that helps them succeed. My opinion of dropping Tonkin is not that I don't think he could be valuable, but rather that I don't see Molitor ever using him in a way that helps him succeed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

He's on the 40 man. If he keeps this up he will, even if it is September.

catchers get injured, players go thru cold streaks, it's a long season.

 

The odds are stacked against him, though I hope he does debut this year and earn his spot in the bigs

[Riverbrian]

If it was me... I'm not dropping any pitcher from the 25 man until they have proven they deserve it. 

 

I'm not there yet but the first two on my list based on performance are Gibson and Hughes. My leash on those guys is getting tighter by the start.  

 

Until we have a clear fail... I'm waiting for a pitcher to get injured before I reduce to 12 pitchers and add that needed extra hitter. I would like the Twins to reward good performance. 

 

I wouldn't have started with 13... but I'll stay at 13 as long as everyone is performing. 

 

While I wait for a pitcher to go down. I'm giving Danny Santana about 3 straight starts and I tell him... you get 3 games to show us something. What would he have to show? That he can actually contribute to a win or at least raise his metrics. If he doesn't... down he goes and up comes Vargas. 

 

[yarnivek1972]

catchers get injured, players go thru cold streaks, it's a long season.

The odds are stacked against him, though I hope he does debut this year and earn his spot in the bigs

The fact that catchers get injured only increases the chances that Garver comes up some time this year. I don't think it is at all likely that JR Murphy gets called up. It's far more likely he gets DFA to make room for someone else on the 40 man at some point.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The fact that catchers get injured only increases the chances that Garver comes up some time this year. I don't think it is at all likely that JR Murphy gets called up. It's far more likely he gets DFA to make room for someone else on the 40 man at some point.

i think Murphy is the first callup to conserve service time for Garver, but they aren't dropping a pitcher to add a 3rd catcher.

[drjim]

i think Murphy is the first callup to conserve service time for Garver, but they aren't dropping a pitcher to add a 3rd catcher.

He's not a good enough prospect to conserve service time.

 

But Murphy may get the first call if the front office wants to get one more look, especially if it's as a backup.